Short-term vs long-term

The latest ONCB poll clearly shows a change of Government is more likely than a month ago. This is no surprise.

The biggest challenge to Labour forming a Government has always been that they would need three significant parties to agree – Labour, Greens and . Winston partly chose National over Labour in 1996 because he did want not a third party in Government – the Alliance. Having a third party there reduces your negotiating power massively with the major party.

If Labour and NZ First can form a Government by themselves, then I think that is the more likely outcome than a National – NZ First Government. They have greater policy similarity.

But you know what, this is not a bad thing in the long-term, if the Greens are out of Parliament. I'd happily have a Labour – NZ First Government for a term as the price to pay for one less party on the left. Because in the long-term not having the Greens there will make it much more likely there will be National-led Governments in future.

If National goes out of office on 44% of the vote, then it only really need to pick up 3% over three years to get back in.

I'd like there to be a in Parliament if it was like the Party – willing to work with whichever party is in Government to achieve better outcomes for their key area of concern (environment). But the Greens have become the party of , and won't succeed as that.

If the Greens do get knocked out of Parliament, then it is an opportunity for them to refocus, and come back as a German style Green Party – one able to work across the spectrum.

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