The Cass Report

The BBC reports:

Children have been let down by a lack of research and “remarkably weak” evidence on medical interventions in gender care, a landmark review says.

The Cass Review, published on Wednesday by paediatrician Dr Hilary Cass, calls for gender services for young people to match the standards of other NHS care.

She says the “toxicity” of the debate around gender meant professionals were “afraid” to openly discuss their views.

Sadly medical professionals who had concerns were hounded for voicing their concerns.

Dr Cass told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that clinicians were concerned about having “no guidance, no evidence, no training”.

She said “we don’t have good evidence” that puberty blockers are safe to use to “arrest puberty”, adding that what started out as a clinical trial had been expanded to a wider group of young people before the results of that trial were available.

Young people who are gender incongruant should not be given treatments that don’t have an evidence base behind them. I absolutely support interventions that have been trialled and which have conclusions about effectiveness and benefits and risks.

“It is unusual for us to give a potentially life-changing treatment to young people and not know what happens to them in adulthood, and that’s been a particular problem that we haven’t had the follow-up into adulthood to know what the results of this are,” she said.

That is startling.

The report recommends that clinicians should address issues patients may have, that are not necessarily related to their gender identity, when they are referred to the new clinics.

Dr Cass says these “holistic assessments” should include screening for neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism, and a mental health assessment.

She said the assessments would address what she called “diagnostic overshadowing” – when patients’ other healthcare issues were overlooked in cases of patients questioning their gender.

She told Today that many of the more than 3,000 young people being seen by gender identity services were birth-registered girls presenting in early teens, “often with quite complex additional problems”.

She said about 15 years ago only 50 predominantly birth-registered boys were being seen by gender identity services.

Basically the report concludes you shouldn’t just conclude that gender incongruence is the only problem and hence a gender change is the only solution. In many cases it could well be the best solution, but not all.

The fact that there has been a 5000% increase in referrals is an issue that needs more research into why.

“What’s unfortunately happened for these young people is that because of the toxicity of the debate, they’ve often been bypassed by local services who’ve been really nervous about seeing them,” Dr Cass said.

“So rather than doing the things that they would do for other young people with depression, or anxiety, or perhaps undiagnosed autistic spectrum disorder, they’ve tended to pass them straight on to the Gid service.”

“There are few other areas of healthcare where professionals are so afraid to openly discuss their views, where people are vilified on social media, and where name-calling echoes the worst bullying behaviour,” she said.

Her report added that the “exceptional” toxicity has had a negative impact on the quality and availability of evidence.

The bullies on social media have a lot to answer for.

The report also warns that younger children should be treated with a “more cautious approach” than adolescents when considering whether to allow them to change their names, pronouns or clothing – known as socially transitioning. 

It says those who have not yet reached puberty should be “prioritised for early discussion with a professional with relevant experience” and they should be put on a separate care pathway than older, adolescent patients.

I’ve made this point before. There younger the child, the more cautious one should be about conclusions.

Another badly designed cycleway

A reader writes in:

I was in Palmerston North last week.  A bike path was added to a busy intersection (Rangitikei St and Featherston st).

The main upshot of this is that they added islands  (pedestrians walking across bike lanes), and added Bus stops in the middle of the road (I kid you not).  All cars will be blocked behind it

To make it worse, this blocks busy entrances to McDonalds drive thru (on the West side) and Countdown (on the east).  On Fridays there were often queues on the road for McDs.

These are the photos of the bus stop

This has been picked up by the Manawatu Standard.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/350234234/cycle-lanes-divide-councillors

The worst thing is – PNCC commissioned it but Taxpayers also paid for about half.  And it looks like they will now have to pay again to fix this mess which nobody in their right minds thinks was a good idea.  

They were working all year so I expect it was approved by the previous government.

The worst thing is (as someone who lived in the area for much of my life) is that it was completely unnecessary.  There was already plenty of room for bikes to safely use the road.  And there are plenty of very quiet back streets to get through as well

434202038_10161164142582464_2802532189432948911_n.jpg

Guest Post: Whats the Politics of Israel’s attack on the Iran ‘consulate in Syria?

A guest post by John Stringer:

I teach WWI, WWII and the Cold War. As an historian and classicist, I follow war, both historic and contemporary, with interest.

Motivations for the Iranian ‘consulate’ attack in Syria by Israel this week, might include:

1. A preemptive strike to take out a big group of important Iranian military leaders and thus hobble Iran’s near-future war-making capability.

(Ironically, no one talks about Syria these days, or despot Assad, where atrocities and genocide on a much bigger scale than in Gaza, has been ongoing). Remember the 2013 chemical weapon attacks (tests?) by Assad against his own people?

2. To actually provoke a wider war with Iran so this confrontation can be resolved once and for all, before Iran develops nukes.

3. To keep America in the fold with Israel (ie against Iran) because America is softening in support about the Israeli Gaza action. Any Iranian retaliation will almost certainly include an attack on American assets (Iranian proxies have done this recently, hitting US bases). They might even attack mainland America with cruise missiles, which would be foolish in the extreme (like Pearl Harbour). I think they’ll take out a big American symbol (Statue of Liberty? An aircraft carrier?) and attack US bases in Syria or elsewhere with drones.

4. To provoke an Iranian attack and draw the Saudi’s in on Israel’s side (the Saudis hate revolutionary Iran). ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend.’ It would then be Israel/US/Saudi Arabia, a strong coalition to confront Iran. It might scare off the Arab States rising. Many fear Iran and might quietly support the confrontation. Many Arab States don’t want the 1979 theocratic Iranian Revolution spreading. The Saudis spend almost 8% GDP on military. Huge.

5. Netanyahu’s unity government might need a bigger enemy than Hamas to maintain government. Remember, Israel has been politically unstable in elections recently, very divided, like America, with deadlocked elections before Nety managed to form a Govt of most parties. If it fell, Israel would be very weak indeed, and her enemies would take advantage.

Corollary:

If as is likely, the Middle East conflict expands, watch Putin. Will his gaze move to the Baltics? Perhaps Estonia, where there is a 1/4 Russian minority (vestiges of Hitler’s 1930s re -amalgamations: Sudetenland, Rhineland, Danzig corridor, etc). The prime minister of Estonia is a middle aged woman whose parents were Kulaks, persecuted and murdered by Stalinist Russia -perhaps one of the worlds worst genocides. Expect her to fight hard, and evoke NATO.

The Poles would certainly act against Russia. Poland is ready for war (5% + GDP on military spending, well trained infantry, and now modernised with American hardware, not old Soviet). France is also awakening. Their main focus is nuclear and deterent rather than convention war. But that ramps up the threat of tactical nuclear threats.

If Trump is elected, as is most likely, in October, I suspect he will pull out of Ukraine war support, to force the Europeans to step up (especially Germany and France) and refocus US attention and treasure in the Pacific (China containment) and the Middle-East (the bigger threats to America).

Kapiti Expressway to go to 110 km/hr

Simon Brown announced:

Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) will begin consultation this month on raising speed limits for the Kāpiti Expressway to 110km/h.

“Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and this proposal supports that outcome by reducing travel times and increasing efficiency for travel in and out of Wellington,” Mr Brown says.

“The Mackays to Peka Peka and Peka Peka to Ōtaki Roads of National Significance (RoNS), which make up the Kāpiti Expressway, were started by the previous National Government and were designed and constructed to a high safety standard. Since these roads opened, no one has died in a crash.

They’re great roads with excellent engineering and clearly safe in good conditions for 110 km/hr, as already occurs for the Waikato Expressway and the Tauranga Eastern Link. The combination of the Expressway and Transmission Gully has transformed driving in the Lower North Island.

The drop in the death toll to 0 is of course also very good news.

Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?

The BAS ruled:

Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found.

It is a fact such patients are prioritised. The exacts words Hawkesby used were not correct, but the fact there is prioritisation was correct.

The decision relates to a 19 June 2023 broadcast in which Hawkesby discussed Te Whatu Ora | Health New Zealand’s new Equity Adjustor Score in the Auckland region. This system uses five categories to place patients on the non-urgent surgical waitlist, including clinical priority, time spent waiting, location, deprivation level and ethnicity.

Hawkesby made statements to the effect that the score meant Māori and Pacific people were being “moved to the top of surgery waitlists”. The BSA found this gave the misleading impression ethnicity was the only, or the key factor, involved in the assessment, and this meant Māori and Pacific patients would be given immediate precedence on the surgical waitlist.

Hawkesby was wrong to say that ethnicity alone would move you to the top of the waitlist. It would move you higher, but not to the top. Whether such a distinction is so significant enough to require a sanction is debatable.

“Hawkesby’s comments played into the stereotype that Māori and Pacific peoples disproportionately take up resources and are given undeserved special treatment in Aotearoa New Zealand’s society, at the expense of other ethnicities. While not said explicitly, in our view, the exaggerated and misleading nature of Hawkesby’s comments had the effect of evoking this type of prejudicial bias,” the BSA said.

While her exact comments were wrong, it is also wrong to say that Maori and Pacific people do not get special treatment. Whether it is deserved or not is a matter of opinion, not fact.

A reader points out:

Even if we ignore the arguably implicit “within the same acuity” suffix to Hawkesby’s comments, some very basic modelling (based on https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/assets/Publications/OIA-response/Equity-OIA/2.-Equity-Adjustor-Implementation-Guidelines.pdf), and not taking into account deprivation or the remote location loading (which would disproportionately increase scores for Maori and PI compared to others), a Maori with P4 acuity will have a higher score than a ‘other’ ethnicity with acuity P3 if they have both been waiting between 81 and 93 days, inclusive.
It’s unusual for BSA to take such a hard line on broadcasters when there is not an absolutely clear breach of accuracy.

This is shown by this graph:

Useful context on public sector job cuts

The Herald reports:

From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.

While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington water pipe (and to be fair, formal update announcements have also commenced).

Consequently, we know of proposed and completed redundancies of some 1000 people to date (give or take), as departments pare their spending in line with reduced and revised Budget allocations, now being finalised for announcement next month. …

But those figures remain eclipsed by the number of staff added through just the second half of last year: 368 additions at MBIE (a 5.9 per cent increase); 405 additions at MSD (a 4.5 per cent increase); 12 additions at MPI (a 0.3 per cent increase); and 77 additions at MoH (a 10.5 per cent increase).

All up, the public service expanded by 4.1 per cent in the last six months for which we have data, which amounted to an addition of 2580 net new employees, as of December 31.

So in the last six months of 2023, the public service grew by around 430 staff a month. The reductions announced to date basically just wind back less than three months of job growth. We have Stuff and Radio NZ doing multiple news bulletins a day about the fact the size of the public sector is going back to the size it was in September 2023, instead of December 2023!

The big picture is that the public service workforce is now 65,699 strong, an increase of 39 per cent (18,447 fulltime equivalent (FTE) employees) since June 30, 2017, just a few months before Labour’s coalition Government was sworn in that October.

So it is around a 1.5% reduction so far.

When Max Rashbrooke is being the voice of reason, that should be a wake up call to others to reduce the hysteria.

Don’t flee the country with kids

The Herald reports:

A Kiwi mother fled New Zealand with her three young children while her husband was at work, to get away from a marriage punctuated by abuse. But she has now been ordered to return her tamariki to their father – despite an Australian judge conceding he had exposed them to family violence.

The order was made under the Hague Convention – an international agreement that helps children return to the country they usually live in if they’re taken or kept overseas, so that parenting arrangements can be made. 

This is not surprising. If one parent unilaterally decides to leave the country with the kids, they almost always end up in the wrong – as they should. Unilaterally deciding that kids should have no contact with their other parent is not a decision for one parent to make. It is a decision for courts to make. And the level of potential harm to kids should be very significant to justify effectively removing one parent from their lives.

Taking the kids to live with her family in Australia seemed like her only option to get away from Ben, who she said subjected her to assaults, financial and emotional abuse and controlling and coercive behaviour.

It wasn’t. You can move out. You can get a protection order. You can move into a refuge. You can get your partner arrested if he has broken the law. None of these are easy, but deciding to flee the country with the kids is not the only option.

Alice outlined the abuse she had been subjected to – giving the judge examples – and raised “a litany of complaints” about his parenting.

She also believed Ben had, throughout the marriage, embarked on “a deliberate campaign to undermine her and her parenting” that included constant criticism and gaslighting.

Umm, criticising parenting styles off even skills is not a valid reason to have your kids stolen from you. And it isn;’t that uncommon parents do disagree on such things.

Ben denied the majority of Alice’s claims, telling the judge that she was “volatile, quick to anger, lacked emotional regulation” and was usually the aggressor in any conflict.

But he “readily made concessions against self-interest, without apparent hesitation” regarding some family harm incidents.

He even told the judge he was willing to foot the bill for the children coming home, and if Alice came with them he would vacate the family home for three months while she got resettled.

Sounded a decent offer.

The judge released her decision five days after the hearing.

“On either parent’s evidence, their relationship was conflictual, punctuated by frequent separations and reconciliations, and marred by acts of family violence,” she said.

“Each parent contends that the other parent was the aggressor, and that they were the victim.”

She said both parents had tried to provide honest and genuine information – but she felt some of Alice’s evidence was “coloured by her desire for her and the children to remain in Australia”.

The judge said it was not for her to decide how the children should be parented or their custody managed – her task was to assess whether they would be exposed to grave risk as defined under the Hague Convention if she ordered their return to New Zealand.

So sounds like fault on both sides.

Alice felt her experience of family violence was “minimised” in court, which was proof the Hague Convention was unfit for purpose in 2024.

“Should it be the discretion of a judge to determine whether or not abuse of any kind is ‘bad enough’?” she said.

Yes. Who else would decide? Any abuse is bad, but for one parent to lose all parenting rights, it needs to be substantial.

Two more strikes for the nasty party

Stuff reports:

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has ordered his senior MP Peeni Henare to remove posts on social media ridiculing government ministers including a cartoon image of ACT Leader David Seymour with faeces coming out of his eyes and an anus for a mouth.

It says something about the judgment of the former Minister that he would think it was appropriate to post such a cartoon.

Just imagine the outcry if a National MP had posted such an image of Jacinda Ardern or James Shaw?

It follows Labour MP Willie Jackson, on Thursday, calling Media and Communications Minister Melissa Lee “stupid” …

Labour seem to want to live up their reputation as the nasty party.

The sentiment was echoed by Seymour, “ACT’s a free speech party and he’s got every right to post what he wants, but everyone has the right to decide what they think of it, too.”

“My biggest worry is democracy needs a competent opposition, I just hope this post isn’t the best they can do,” said Seymour.

Labour seem to like polling in the 20s.

Four dead, more injured in Australia

News.com.au reports:

Four people are dead and many more injured after a mass stabbing inside a packed Westfield at Sydney’s Bondi Junction, with shocking footage emerging of families fleeing for their lives.

The horror unfolded at 4pm on Saturday afternoon when a man began stabbing shoppers at random, including a woman and her nine-month-old baby, before being shot dead by police.

Terrible for those at the scene, plus their families and friends.

Stories are already emerging of heroic Australians battling to take down the knifeman, with some throwing tables and chairs at him and astonishing footage emerging of one man taking him on with a bollard. 

Good on ya cobbers.

The Attorney General said there is no information that proves the attack is terror-related, but the AFP are consulting with NSW Police are will activate a joint counter terrorism team if necessary.

When the attacker is stabbing babies, it is highly likely to be terror-related.

UPDATE: Now five dead sadly, and nine stabbed.

Kudos to the senior female officer who confronted him and shot him. She saved many more lives, by not waiting for backup.

Looks like she is an Inspector.

Lessons from NPR

NPR is the US public broadcaster. Uri Berliner has worked for them for 25 years and has written a thoughtful piece on how they lost their way. There are lessons here for other broadcasters.

  • In 2011 their listeners were 37% liberal and 26% conservative, in 2023 it is 67% liberal and 11% conservative
  • Was unbalanced on Russiagate interviewing Adam Schiff 25 times, and not covering well the conclusion there was no collusion
  • Ignored the Hunter Biden laptop story as it could help Trump
  • Dismissed the possibility that Covid-19 was a lab leak, now deemed likely
  • Decided that America is systemically racist their mission was to change it
  • Diversity became the “North Star” for NPR
  • Union contract requires journalists to follow language and style guide of journalism affinity groups such as MGIPOC (Marginalized Genders and Intersex People of Color mentorship program) and Gender-Expansive, and Transgender People in Technology Throughout Public Media
  • Have been instructed to avoid the term “biological sex”
  • With the Israel-Hamas war, highlighting the suffering of Palestinians at almost every turn while downplaying the atrocities of October 7 and overlooking how Hamas intentionally puts Palestinian civilians in peril
  • At NPR HQ they have 87 registered democrats on staff and 0 registered republicans
  • Despite the diversity push, no increase in black or hispanic listeners. Has become media for urban white progressives

He ends with some good advice for the new CEO:

Her first rule could be simple enough: don’t tell people how to think. It could even be the new North Star.

As I said, many things in his article have relevance for NZ media.

Yes Minister strikes again in NZ

Many will recall this Yes Minister episode about how there was a very good hospital with only one problem – no patients.

Well Radio NZ reports:

A brand new surgical building the size of a provincial hospital is sitting empty on the grounds of North Shore Hospital, its opening delayed and no new date set.

There are lights on and hospital beds in place in the four storey, 150-bed Tōtara Haumaru building, but it could be months before there are patients.

You would have thought that during the many years of construction for the new surgical building, someone would have been recruiting staff so it would not just sit there empty for the best part of a year!

Nanny state in Georgia

Reason reports:

In August of 2018, the Widner kids—then ages 13, 11, nine, and seven—were members of a swim team at their local YMCA, which was about two blocks from their house. One day, after swim practice, the 7-year-old, Jackson, lagged behind while the rest of his siblings walked home, and stopped by the grocery for a free cookie.

A store employee thought it was so unusual to see an unaccompanied 7-year-old that a store employee called 911. Then, instead of letting him leave, the employee told Jackson he had to wait for the police to arrive.

This became part of a pattern; indeed, Jackson’s semi-independence attracted police attention on no fewer than three occasions, leading to two investigations by Child Protective Services (CPS). …

After the police finally brought Jackson home, they informed his father, Glenn, that it wasn’t safe to let a child his age wander around outside.

“You just can’t raise kids like that anymore—it isn’t safe,” said the cops.

Glenn begged to differ, reciting statistics that kids today face no greater risk from stranger danger than previous generations. Nevertheless, the police summoned child protective services.

Soon thereafter, Beth got a call from Jackson, using the new watch phone his parents had gotten him after the August incident. He said the police wanted to speak to her. Once again, cops had detained Jackson for being outside unsupervised.

Beth got to the grocery parking lot within a couple of minutes. She found Jackson seated like a suspect in the backseat of a cruiser. The complaining witness watched as the police let Beth take her son home. Beth wasn’t told what to expect further, and she didn’t hear from child services. But she later learned that child services had been informed about Jackson’s flagrant act of unaccompanied bike riding. …

One of the police officers accused Glenn of “breaking the law” by letting Jackson go out alone. “What law is that?” Glenn inquired.  The officer replied, “You can Google it.” The most senior officer accused him of neglect and “contributing to delinquency of the minor,” and told him not only could he be arrested, but he might face felony charges and spend time in jail.

This is awful over-reach. I live near a playground and sometimes I let my kids to go to it a few minutes ahead of me, while I clean up the dishes.

I’m actually pretty cautious and won’t let my seven year old walk or scoot around the neighbourhood alone, but will sometimes say yes if he has a similar aged friend with him. At some stage I’ll loosen the strings more.

These are decisions for parents to make, based on how well we know our kids, and our neighbourhoods. There is no role for the Police except where a child is manifestly too young to be outside alone, or is lost.

Is David Seymour Chris Hipkins in Disguise?

When the school attendance crisis became fully evident the, then, Minister of Education (Hipkins), blamed parents and said it was up to them to get kids to school. He dared not blame the schools.

In opposition Seymour was fierce and inspiring. Parents were to be given enough money each year so as to be able to choose their ECE and school. Schools had to improve or shut down. The Ministry of education was going to go from 4,400 staff back to the pre 2018 number of 2,700 – which was already bizarrely inflated with seat warmers.

In government that lion has turned 180 degrees (baaa). The Ministry of Education has not yet shed an employee and are one of Seeks best customers. None of the disastrous top 12 have been sent to Ukraine. There is nothing yet about parents having their choices enhanced. And – Seymour’s solution to the attend crisis is more quickly publishing system wide data – when it needs to be school by school every week – and he is going to fine parents.

David suddenly seems afraid of the unions and the schools. ACT is the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers. They used to stand for small government. They used to stand for families and not against them. I took my three children to Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan when they were at primary school. They missed some school but learned a year’s worth of experience. I would not be paying a fine and neither will anyone else.

NZ schools and teachers have lost a big segment of the room. We have 2,600 schools and a large portion of those I would not be advising any parent to simply send their kids along without a lot of due diligence and complete assurance that their child will be taught well and be free from bullying from the BoT, Principal, teachers and other children.

Forcing children back into school is no solution. As a good friend states – the school is often the source of a child’s trauma. If the only reason a child is at school is that the parent has been fined … how do you think that will turn out?

The solution is almost all school based.

The bottom lines:

  • teachers need to become people the vast majority of young people (and their parents) want to learn from. They need to be well qualified and, primary teachers (by their own admission) are not confident in Math and Science they need to do NCEA L2 in both.
  • schools need to be seen as being highly purposeful, and safe – good places to be EVERY day.
  • schools and teachers need to win back credibility by being open every day. No teacher only days (especially on the Thursday before Good Friday), strikes, or parent teacher interviews in school time after sending the kids home (a really weird development).
  • NCEA/NZQA needs to regain full credibility as a qualification worth striving for. Postponing improvement for a few years is kicking the can down the road. Seymour and Stanford need to employ the very best people and have everything flying in 2026 … it is not that hard!
  • much of our emphasis needs to be different. I love sport but some of it has gone well over the top. The high quality boys school – St Peters in Epsom has their leavers graduating with UE at 93% (Auckland Grammar at 74%)  The provincial boys schools who call themselves the Super 8 have a low of 14.3% Rotorua Boys and a high of 42% Napier Boys. But if their 1st XV has had a good year all is chipper.

Seymour’s hair colour may differ from that of Hipkins but, so far, it is a NCEA style “Not Achieved” for the Associate Minister.

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

A scathing report on Auckland Light Rail

This is so scathing. The Auckland Light Rail fiasco:

  • Blew out costs by 700% to 1100% in five years
  • Promoted transport options which bear no resemblance to the cost envelopes
  • Did not rule out the tunnel option even after costs doubled then doubled again

What a gigantic waste of money it all was.

NZ Police: Hate crimes targeting NZ Jews up 530% from 2022 to 2023

The NZ Jewish Council has analysed the hate crime data from the NZ Police. His executive summary:

  • Police reported hate crimes targeting Jews in New Zealand increased 583% from 2022 to 2023. 
  • Jewish New Zealanders are disproportionately targeted for hate crimes. Despite making up only 0.2% of the population, NZ Police Oct-Dec 2023 data shows that:
    • 13% of all reported hate crimes in the Auckland Region were against Jews;10% of all reported hate crimes in the Wellington Region were against Jews; and
    • 10% of all reported hate crimes in the Tasman Region were against Jews.
  • Jewish New Zealanders are 160 times more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than a European New Zealander.
  • Jewish New Zealanders are 18 times more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than a Maori New Zealander.
  • Jewish New Zealanders are 1.7 times more likely to be the victim of a hate crime than a Middle Eastern New Zealander.
  • Hate crimes against Jewish New Zealanders are increasing at a rate more than 5 times higher than the next group of victims, Middle Eastern New Zealanders. 

It is disappointing that NZ media doesn’t seem to consider this is newsworthy.

Also of interest:

Data on the offenders of hate crime[1] shows that Māori are more likely to commit a hate crime per capita than any other group (approx 1.4 incidents per 1,000 population compared to 0.4 for Pasifika, 0.3 for Europeans, 0.2 for Indians, and 0.05 for Asians).

You can see the huge increase since 2022. If this had happened against any other ethnic minority, I suspect it would be the subject of many ongoing stories.

The full analysis is here:

Cathedral should not be bailed out

Radio NZ report:

The team behind Christ Church Cathedral Reinstatement (CCRL) says its costs have significantly increased, and the project may be mothballed if the funds cannot be found.

The landmark cathedral in Christchurch’s city centre was badly damaged in the 2011 Canterbury earthquakes.

The cost of restoration was in 2017 estimated at $104 million. That rose to $154m in 2020, but a full project review has now priced it at $248m.

That’s not at public sector levels of blowout, but still a lot.

Stewart said they were confident of fundraising another $26m, and the Anglican Church had offered $16m, “leaving a funding gap of $114 million”.

“Philanthropy alone will not provide sufficient funds to complete the project.”

Then sadly it won’t be completed as taxpayers and ratepayers should not pay.

The city has actually done very well in the 13 years without it. It’s a nice to have, not a must have.

Every party should have Better Public Services targets

I’m delighted to see the Government announce nice Better Public Services targets, as meeting those targets can improve life for so many New Zealanders. We have first hand experience that they can work – the last National-led Government saw immunisations rates for Maori skyrocket to the same level as non-Maori, saw hundreds or thousands of lives saved due to faster service at emergency departments.

The BPS targets are important for numerous reasons:

  • They allow results to be measured and Government to be accountaable
  • They incentivise agencies to work together to achieve them
  • They provide a focus for Ministers and the public
  • They generally are focused on outcomes, not inputs or outputs.

The last one is especially important. The difference is:

  • Inputs: Action (ie spend $20 million to try and improve school attendance rates)
  • Outputs: Result (50 new truancy officers are operating)
  • Outcome: Impact (School attendance is up 10%)

So what are the nine targets:

  1. Shorter stays in emergency departments: 95 per cent of patients to be admitted, discharged, or transferred from an emergency department within six hours.
  2. Shorter wait times for (elective) treatment: 95 per cent of people wait less than four months for elective treatment.
  3. Reduced child and youth offending: 15 per cent reduction in the total number of children and young people with serious and persistent offending behaviour.
  4. Reduced violent crime: 20,000 fewer people who are victims of an assault, robbery, or sexual assault.
  5. Fewer people on the Jobseeker Support Benefit: 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support Benefit. 
  6. Increased student attendance: 80 per cent of students are present for more than 90 per cent of the term. 
  7. More students at expected curriculum levels: 80 per cent of Year 8 students at or above the expected curriculum level for their age in reading, writing and maths by December 2030. 
  8. Fewer people in emergency housing: 75 per cent reduction of households in emergency housing.  
  9. Reduced net greenhouse gas emissions: On track to meet New Zealand’s 2050 net zero climate change targets, with total net emissions of no more than 290 megatonnes from 2022 to 2025 and 305 megatonnes from 2026 to 2030.  

I much prefer a desired outcome of 20,000 fewer crime victims than an output of 25% fewer people in prison.

I think one of the worst things the Ardern/Hipkins Government did was abandon Better Public Services targets. Not only did we see outcomes get so much worse in so many areas, we lost that focus on measuring outcomes, not just how much money we’re spending.

I wouldn’t expect a Labour-led Government to have the same BPS targets as a National-led Government but I would expect them to have their own suite they could be held accountable against.

In an ideal political world all six parliamentary parties would go into an election with their six to ten Better Public Services outcomes so that voters can see what actual impact they want to make, and hold them to account for them. This is very different to just publishing policies.

The Hundertwasser corporate welfare fail

Radio NZ report:

Whangārei’s acclaimed, but controversial, Hundertwasser Art Centrecould run out of money by October 2025 – which means ratepayers may have to stump up to keep it open.

That is despite an undertaking during the long-running campaign to build the centre that it would pay its own way rather than rely on council funding.

It cost around $33 million and got over half of that from taxpayers as corporate welfare. They said they expected it to attract 450,000 visitors a year.

The trust’s half-yearly report, presented to Whangārei district councillors last month, showed the centre had 19,800 paying visitors in the second half of 2023 – a sharp drop from the 37,000 in the first four months after the doors opened.

So they are likely to get 40,000 visitors over a year, less than 10% of what was claimed. I don’t know why government keeps falling for these fantastical claims of patronage that never eventuate.

Reduced admission fees and shop sales led to a half-year loss by the Hundertwasser Art Centre of $765,000.

So a possible annual loss of $1.5 million. There are 30,000 households in Whangarei so each household will have to subsidise it on average by $50.