In Stuff on 21 Dec 2011, I did 20 political predictions for 2012, to complement the ones by the gallery team. My were not entirely serious. I’ll mark them now with one for basically correct, 1/2 for correct in principle and 0 for a miss.
1. Labour will poll over 30 per cent on the first poll of 2012. – they got it in he 2nd poll of 2012 – 1/2
2. Asenati Taylor will surprise many as the most impressive NZ First MP. – Ouch – 0
3. Forty-nine per cent of Mighty River Power will be sold before 2013, with huge demand leading to over $2 billion proceeds from the sale. – 1/2 as court action hard to compensate for
4. There will be no ministerial resignations due to scandal in 2012. – Whoops – 0
5. Lockwood Smith will become high commissioner to London, and a minister will replace him as the new Speaker. – I’m giving myself 1 for this as we all know it has happened, just the formality delayed until Jan.
6. Lockwood will throw Winston Peters out of the debating chamber on at least two occasions before he departs. – 1 – he did it twice I believe
7. There will be at one by-election in 2012 (and two in 2013). – 0, none
8. Aaron Gilmore will be an MP again before Christmas 2012. – I give myself 1/2 as it is only delayed until January.
9. The 2012 budget will be followed by at least three public sector strikes demanding pay increases. – Not sure if they were any. I’ll say 0.
10. Unemployment will be below 6 per cent by the end of 2012, and inflation will be below 3 per cent – 1 for inflation and 0 for unemployment is 1/2
11. The review of MMP will recommend getting rid of the one-seat threshold and reducing the party vote threshold to 4 per cent. – spot on – 1
12. The constitutional review will propose an upper house known as the “Treaty House” which is 50 per cent tangata whenua, and will have similar powers to the House of Lords to scrutinise and delay legislation. – 0 for now as no proposals yet.
13. Defence lawyers will start a Bring Back Simon Power campaign. – 0 for that – they prefer Judith.
14. The age for buying alcohol will increase to 20 for at least off-licences. – very thankful that was zero. I should back myself more
15. Labour List MP Rajen Prasad will put out twice as many press releases in 2012 than he did in the previous three years. – also a zero – I over-estimated his work ethic.
16. As Sue Kedgley has retired, Easter will pass without a Green MP putting out a press release condemning the size of Easter eggs as too large. – 1 for that
17. The first prosecution in the Copyright Tribunal for copyright infringing through file-sharing will occur. – 1 for that as they have been lodged and are under consideration.
18. NZ First will drop below 5 per cent in the polls, and by coincidence Winston Peters will attack immigrants the following fortnight. – 1 for that
19. The Crafar farms will be bought by Landcorp. – 1/2 – a joint venture
20. The Government will pledge to implement every recommendation made by the Royal Commission into the Pike River disaster. – so far a 1.
So in total I generously score myself 9.5/20.
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