ACT’s latest newsletter

May 25th, 2015 at 1:31 pm by David Farrar

ACT rate the Budget speeches in their latest newsletter. Now they’re hardly disinterested observers, but there certainly are a lot of people who think Little’s speech was appallingly bad. Their ratings:

  • Bill English 7/10
  • Andrew Little 1/10
  • John Key 8/10
  • Metiria Turei 4/10
  • Winston Peters 5/10
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 6/10
  • Peter Dunne 6/10
  • David Seymour 7/10

They also refer to something which may be more significant:

ACT’s Board has unanimously rejected an approach by the hapless Don Brash (no joking, this is too good for us to have made up) for Williamson to join ACT’s caucus.  “My own party don’t want me no more” is not an attractive pitch. For similar reasons, what poor country would accept him as ambassador?

This will be interesting, if correct.

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Economics from a different Labour candidate

May 25th, 2015 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

A commentator at The Standard said:

The second biggest NZ political deception of a lifetime is Labour claiming that our country cannot afford to keep the retirement age at 65. Money is created electronically by keystrokes by the Reserve Bank. How can we run out of money to pay super at 65?

Now normally what a blog commenter says is of no importance. But this commenter was in fact an official candidate for the NZ Labour Party. He’d be a Labour MP if they had got enough votes when he stood.

The fact someone with such economic illiteracy can get through candidate selection is a worry. He thinks money can just be created by keystroke by the Reserve Bank, without realising doing so would devalue the currency massively so that it becomes worthless. If one could just create new money by central bank fiat without bad consequences, then every nation on earth would do it.

This is not Economics 101. This is 3rd form economics.

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CIS says Australia has given up

May 25th, 2015 at 12:15 pm by David Farrar

The Centre for Independent Studies looks at the Australian Budget and isn’t impressed:

In Budget 2015, the government has waved the white flag on attempts to reduce the size of the state. It has given in to the vested interests calling for your tax dollars.

The budget is littered with references to the fairness of paying more tax, and hands out government largesse to the middle class. It is little wonder that government spending is at almost record high levels. Excluding the 2009-10 budget at the height of the GFC, government spending as a percentage of GDP is at its highest level since the recession in the early nineties. Net debt will exceed $300 billion inside two years and gross debt will now peak at nearly $600 billion — and that’s if we are lucky.

The government’s so-called credible path to surplus is built on artificial assumptions of a return of economic good times and rising tax revenue through bracket creep. Spending remains far above the level of the Howard government. It is even above the level of the Gillard / Rudd governments. It is disappointing that those in charge no longer believe in the benefits of small government.

In NZ spending as a % of GDP is dropping. It peaked around 35% and is now around 30%. I think 25% would be a good level to end up at.

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Guest Post: Educational Aspiration in Crisis

May 25th, 2015 at 11:30 am by David Farrar

A guest post by Alwyn Poole:

In New Zealand it is acknowledged that a University Education is an important pathway to change socioeconomic outcomes. Back in October 2014 Professor Stuart McCutcheon noted:

Each year, some 10,000 ordinary, mostly young people leave the University of Auckland armed with a new degree or diploma. Their qualifications will lead to them having lower unemployment rates, higher salaries and better health outcomes than those whose education terminated at school. The lifetime salary benefit of a degree is estimated to be in the range $250,000 to $500,000. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11350829)

You would therefore think that any major disparity in University Entrance results would have opposition politicians, teacher unions and educationalists raging – and parents on the street.

The PPTA used to campaign on this. In a 2009 report they stated:

New Zealand has a tail of students with low academic achievement. Although internationally standardised test data for literacy, numeracy and science show New Zealand does very well in terms of its average performance, we have high quality but low equity achievement. Almost all of the students “at risk” are found in state schools, the highest proportion of which is in lower decile schools. The skewed nature of educational disadvantage correlates with family income and ethnicity. However, there is increasing evidence that genuine solutions can be found to reduce this problem.

http://www.ppta.org.nz/events-info-forms/doc_view/582-secondary-education-and-the-economic-crisis

The Labour Party manifesto in 2011 acknowledged the problem:

Some children are missing out on a quality education. A good education is a human right and we will work to make sure the most vulnerable students don’t miss out: Māori, Pasifika, children from low-income families, children with special needs, victims of bullying and violence, and those who struggle to achieve academically and don’t have a clear post-school pathway to work or higher education.

https://www.labour.org.nz/sites/default/files/2011%20Labour%20Party%20Manifesto.pdf

However, after the 2011 ACT/National agreement to introduce Charter Schools as a small part of a solution to address the problem for priority learners the issue stopped being of importance. Any effort to point it out might be seen as an endorsement of a policy that the Opposition and associated unions had chosen not to like. Since that moment almost all of their protest energy has gone into trying to eradicate Charter Schools as opposed to trying to find solutions to the huge disparities in the outcomes of young people in NZ. This expensive, false, and misdirected protest finally reached the point of outright comedy when Labour and the unions raged about how a Charter School spent money from multiple sources on a waka. They currently say very little about the outcomes for priority learners in many of our high schools. These schools that receive tens of millions of dollars every year. They have tied their own hands with the mantra of “world-class” that they dreamed up to imply that there was nothing to see here and no need for change. They have fallen silent about inequitable outcomes when this generation needs them to stand strong.

Recently the NCEA and UE qualifications data was released for 2014.

In terms of UE a sample table is as follows (referenced from NZQA published tables).

School Name Decile 2014 UE Roll Based Pass Rate
Northland College 1 12%
Tamaki College 1 10%
Southern Cross Campus 1 18%
James Cook High School 1 7%
Mangere College 1 12%
Papakura College 2 9%
Huntly College 1 6%
Fairfield College 4 17%
Flaxmere College 1 5%
Melville High School 4 15%
Edgecumbe College 3 0%
Opotiki College 1 12%
Otorohanga College 4 6%
Tokoroa High School 2 15%
Te Kuiti High School 3 14%
Ruapehu College 3 8%
Wanganui City College 2 9%
Rangitikei College 3 18%
Wairoa College 2 12%
William Colenso 2 16%
Makoura College 2 7%
Mana College 2 10%
Naenae College 2 18%
Some Comparisons
Glendowie College 9 65%
Howick College 10 48%
St Kentigerns College 10 77%
Pakuranga College 8 65%
Epsom Girls Grammar 9 81%
Rosmini College 9 74%
Wellington Girls College 10 81%
Samuel Marsden Collegiate 10 93%

The discrepancies in outcomes speak for themselves but it is worth reading the above table two or three times to really get a handle on it. This is a blight on our society and that almost no one is talking about it and/or reporting on it has me flummoxed. I won’t name them here but two lower decile school Principals who stated that UE and University wasn’t for “their kids” must, I hope, have had their statements taken out of context.

Keep in mind also that these are the roll based statistics for Year 13 students. It says nothing of the children in these schools that have left through attrition in previous years – i.e. the actual percentage of any cohort achieving at that level is even lower.

Schools in New Zealand are set up and funded to bring about progress, development and change. Blaming the circumstances of the children, or the surrounding area, isn’t an option as a society, and it doesn’t help. The reason we have state funded schools should be to ensure that education can precede changes in circumstance. If we were to wait for social equity before we felt we could educate children we will be throwing a portion of another generation on to the heap. With education, being Left or Right does not help.

In saying that, there is no denying the disease. We have to look for massive aspirational approaches to overcome this. It should be all hand on deck for these young people. Twenty years ago I was studying for a Masters degree in Education and all of the talk was about how to overcome the outcome problems for Maori, Pasifika and lower socio-economic children. The difference with today is that at least twenty years ago it was being talked about.

Solutions have to be found. There are a lot of tyre-kickers in education in NZ. People who criticise outcomes, criticise attempts at solutions, attack all manner of people who are doing the job but do nothing to assist. The kids who are missing out don’t need theoreticians – they need on the ground solutions. The vast majority of those solutions involve people and not flash buildings. People who understand the new learning paradigm understand that all children, given quality teaching/coaching, repetition/practice and opportunity can develop remarkable skills and knowledge sets. These young people need to be surrounded by adults who understand aspiration and change.

I know these aspirations are worthwhile. I managed to get through one of the decile 1 schools listed above and get to University. I had three teachers in that time who communicated to me that it was possible and I was unsophisticated enough to believe them.

What are some of the solutions within the school system that are worth discussion?

– Communities need to take this on and need to militant about it. Every community needs to demand schooling that generates results that allows their children to move into the higher levels of education in roughly equal numbers as any other community. Passive acceptance of the status quo should not be an option.

– Revisit bulk funding and give Principals in schools much more discretion on how they spend their money. They know the children, families, and locality so allow them more say in provision.

– Differentiate teacher salaries across the deciles. Pay a premium to teachers working in decile 1 – 3 schools to bring about change. If there is not a will to differentiate for results by teacher then incentivise the whole school for externally evaluated improvements. Allow the Ministry and management to bring financial and other incentives for bringing about great outcomes for kids. If it is acknowledged that working in some of these schools brings a different level of challenge then reward people who take it on and succeed.

– Children in the lower decile schools are not having special exam conditions applied for. Of the 5454 students with exam help last year only approximately 330 were from decile 1 schools – as opposed to 1440 from decile 10 schools. Something is significantly amiss here that needs to be fixed immediately.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/68447944/teenagers-with-learning-difficulties-missing-out

– These students don’t arrive at Year 13 from a vacuum – continually revisit the base and the provision there – particularly in the subjects the Universities have designated as key. Ensure that all primary school teachers can teach Maths, English, and Science well and a start would be to have strict entry qualifications to teacher training in those areas (e.g. at least level 3 NCEA).

There will be other suggestions out there that can make a difference. It is time to get things done.

(Note: I would also have a concern that too rapid a transition to computer based qualifications may exaggerate the gaps further.)

Alwyn Poole

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Stupid

May 25th, 2015 at 10:45 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

The Government has been urged to consider restricting sales of nicotine electronic cigarettes to pharmacies, in a blog to be published today by public health experts.

But an opponent of medical-style controls says doing that would impede access to a device that has huge potential to reduce smoking harm.

So these experts think it is a good idea to have cigarettes available from any dairy or supermarket, yet a substitute product that is probably 1/100th as harmful to be restricted to pharmacies.

No need to take them seriously again.

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Finally Ngāpuhi negotiations to commence

May 25th, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Chris Finlayson has announced:

The Crown and the Tūhoronuku Independent Mandated Authority (Tūhoronuku IMA) have signed Terms of Negotiation and are ready to begin negotiating a Treaty settlement for the benefit of all Ngāpuhi, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Christopher Finlayson announced today.

Tūhoronuku IMA is the mandated representative of Ngāpuhi, New Zealand’s largest iwi, for Treaty of Waitangi settlement negotiations.

“This is an important milestone for Ngāpuhi,” Mr Finlayson said. “We can now begin genuine conversations with hapū about their specific concerns and work towards a settlement that will provide all Ngāpuhi with a strong social and economic platform for the future.”

This announcement is particularly significant given that today also marks the 20thAnniversary of the signing of Tainui’s Treaty of Waitangi settlement.

“Tainui provides an excellent example of just what an iwi can achieve for its people post-settlement,” Mr Finlayson said.

This is the last major settlement. There has been years and years of delay as a few hapu oppose the mandated authority, but the reality is 76% of Ngāpuhi who voted, voted in favour of the mandate. That’s an overwhelming mandate (3:1). If you insist on 1005 agreement, then there would be no settlements ever.

Northland is a very economically depressed area. A settlement could make a significant difference to the region, let alone the members of Ngāpuhi. And anyone who has studied history will know many wrongs were done by the Crown. On average the settlements are worth probably just 1% of the estimated value of lost properties, so they are not unaffordable. In fact they have averaged just over $50 million a year.

If this negotiation proceeds to settlement, then the historical settlements will be close to finished. Most Iwi who have settled have not tried to relitigate historical grievances, but have focused on using the settlements to put their Iwi on

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Good move Lincoln

May 25th, 2015 at 9:15 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Lincoln University believes the country’s first fee-setting agreement for domestic students will ensure more are attracted and retained on its campus.

As of next year, the university near Christchurch will become the first in the country to offer domestic students a set price for the duration of their degree. Most universities increase fees by the maximum four per cent each year.

It has been commended by the sector and students’ associations.

Deputy Vice-Chancellor of international and business development Jeremy Baker said more students would consider enrolling because of the increased security and no surprises.

“It’s basically a contract, if you come to Lincoln, we won’t increase the price on you whilst you’re at Lincoln.”

“As long as they make good academic progress, students will pay the same set tuition fee for the degree programme they enrol in, with the fee remaining the same each year for the minimum time it takes to complete the qualification.”

The university – with 3500 students currently – had been planning the idea for about three years. 

The set price introduced for international students in 2014 was well-received – with their numbers rising 46 per cent this year – and it was decided domestic students should benefit too.

“What we have been doing is trying to fund a way of still sticking within the rules but giving more flexibility and security for students.”

“We think it’s a good deal for both parties.”

The university was “pretty confident” it would not cause too many issues financially, he said.

“We will lose some money, but we will also gain the certainty of having those students.”

 

That’s a smart move by Lincoln, and may put pressure on other universities to do the same. Offering a fixed fee for the duration of a degree will attract students, but also incentivise them to pass, as if they fail then their fees may increase to the level set for new students.

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Messina on why Labour lost

May 25th, 2015 at 8:30 am by David Farrar

Jim Messina was Obama’s 2012 campaign manager and also a campaign adviser to David Cameron. He writes on why Labour lost:

Was it Messina’s data-focused approach that won the day, or was it down to the personality of David Cameron vs. Ed Miliband? ‘All elections are always about the candidates and we had the better leader,’ he says. ‘We had a leader with a clear agenda who had taken very difficult steps and the economy was benefiting from that.’

But Messina does not have many positive things to say about Labour’s messaging either. ‘To this day I can’t tell you what Labour’s message was other than I guess we don’t like the Tories. But until the famous Ed Rock or Ed Stone, you sort of had no idea what they were running on and when you are trying to do that five days before, you’re in deep, deep trouble.’

The research conducted by Crosby backed up his polling on the Tories’ message of economic stability. ‘CTF were saying it and then people on the doors were hearing it is that people believed that Cameron had taken tough steps, things were starting to get better and that Miliband wasn’t offering anything new and that combination made it very, very difficult for them to win.’

NZ Labour’s message seems also to be mainly we don’t like National, and no new policies.

Could he seem himself returning to Conservative HQ in future? ‘I would love to, I really believe in Prime Minister Cameron and I adore his team, I think Andrew Feldman and Lynton, those guys are all some of the better people I have worked with so it would be an honour to work with them again.’

What about working for say Boris Johnson, if he is leading the Tories in 2020? ‘Well we’re only three days after the last one! I think I’m going to go to sleep for a couple of weeks.’

Interesting that a Democrat would work the Conservatives. I understand it was mainly because of his admiration for David Cameron.

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General Debate 25 May 2015

May 25th, 2015 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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This is what the Greens are against

May 25th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

I was listening to a ted Talk while running. It was by Pamela Ronald who is a plant geneticist. I got quite angry while listening to it, because it highlighted how the Greens and others are battling against science that is feeding millions of people.

You can view or read her talk here. The key extracts:

Now, the same month that my laboratory published our discovery on the rice immunity gene, my friend and colleague Dave Mackill stopped by my office. He said, “Seventy million rice farmers are having trouble growing rice.” That’s because their fields are flooded, and these rice farmers are living on less than two dollars a day. Although rice grows well in standing water, most rice varieties will die if they’re submerged for more than three days. Flooding is expected to be increasingly problematic as the climate changes. He told me that his graduate student Kenong Xu and himself were studying an ancient variety of rice that had an amazing property. It could withstand two weeks of complete submergence. He asked if I would be willing to help them isolate this gene. I said yes — I was very excited, because I knew if we were successful, we could potentially help millions of farmers grow rice even when their fields were flooded.

Kenong spent 10 years looking for this gene. Then one day, he said, “Come look at this experiment. You’ve got to see it.” I went to the greenhouse and I saw that the conventional variety that was flooded for 18 days had died, but the rice variety that we had genetically engineered with a new gene we had discovered, called Sub1, was alive. Kenong and I were amazed and excited that a single gene could have this dramatic effect. But this is just a greenhouse experiment. Would this work in the field?

Now, I’m going to show you a four-month time lapse video taken at the International Rice Research Institute. Breeders there developed a rice variety carrying the Sub1 gene using another genetic technique called precision breeding. On the left, you can see the Sub1 variety, and on the right is the conventional variety. Both varieties do very well at first, but then the field is flooded for 17 days. You can see the Sub1 variety does great. In fact, it produces three and a half times more grain than the conventional variety. I love this video because it shows the power of plant genetics to help farmers. Last year, with the help of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, three and a half million farmers grew Sub1 rice.

This is what the Greens have spent 20 years opposing, and still oppose.

Now, many people don’t mind genetic modification when it comes to moving rice genes around, rice genes in rice plants, or even when it comes to mixing species together through grafting or random mutagenesis. But when it comes to taking genes from viruses and bacteria and putting them into plants,a lot of people say, “Yuck.” Why would you do that? The reason is that sometimes it’s the cheapest, safest, and most effective technology for enhancing food security and advancing sustainable agriculture.I’m going to give you three examples.

First, take a look at papaya. It’s delicious, right? But now, look at this papaya. This papaya is infected with papaya ringspot virus. In the 1950s, this virus nearly wiped out the entire production of papaya on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. Many people thought that the Hawaiian papaya was doomed, but then, a local Hawaiian, a plant pathologist named Dennis Gonsalves, decided to try to fight this disease using genetic engineering. He took a snippet of viral DNA and he inserted it into the papaya genome. This is kind of like a human getting a vaccination. Now, take a look at his field trial. You can see the genetically engineered papaya in the center. It’s immune to infection. The conventional papaya around the outside is severely infected with the virus. Dennis’ pioneering work is credited with rescuing the papaya industry.Today, 20 years later, there’s still no other method to control this disease. There’s no organic method. There’s no conventional method. Eighty percent of Hawaiian papaya is genetically engineered.

And the Greens would say best to let the papaya industry be wiped out. They’re basically against vaccinating plants and crops!

Now, take a look at this pest feasting on an eggplant. The brown you see is frass, what comes out the back end of the insect. To control this serious pest, which can devastate the entire eggplant crop in Bangladesh, Bangladeshi farmers spray insecticides two to three times a week, sometimes twice a day, when pest pressure is high. But we know that some insecticides are very harmful to human health,especially when farmers and their families cannot afford proper protection, like these children. In less developed countries, it’s estimated that 300,000 people die every year because of insecticide misuse and exposure. Cornell and Bangladeshi scientists decided to fight this disease using a genetic technique that builds on an organic farming approach. Organic farmers like my husband Raoul spray an insecticide called B.T., which is based on a bacteria. This pesticide is very specific to caterpillar pests, and in fact, it’s nontoxic to humans, fish and birds. It’s less toxic than table salt. But this approach does not work well in Bangladesh. That’s because these insecticide sprays are difficult to find, they’re expensive, and they don’t prevent the insect from getting inside the plants. In the genetic approach, scientists cut the gene out of the bacteria and insert it directly into the eggplant genome. Will this work to reduce insecticide sprays in Bangladesh? Definitely. Last season, farmers reported they were able to reduce their insecticide use by a huge amount, almost down to zero. They’re able to harvest and replant for the next season.

Yet despite this, the Greens still fight against the science.

Now, I’ve given you a couple examples of how genetic engineering can be used to fight pests and disease and to reduce the amount of insecticides. My final example is an example where genetic engineering can be used to reduce malnutrition. In less developed countries, 500,000 children go blind every year because of lack of Vitamin A. More than half will die. For this reason, scientists supported by the Rockefeller Foundation genetically engineered a golden rice to produce beta-carotene, which is the precursor of Vitamin A. This is the same pigment that we find in carrots. Researchers estimate that just one cup of golden rice per day will save the lives of thousands of children. But golden rice is virulently opposed by activists who are against genetic modification. Just last year, activists invaded and destroyed a field trial in the Philippines. When I heard about the destruction, I wondered if they knew that they were destroying much more than a scientific research project, that they were destroying medicines that children desperately needed to save their sight and their lives.

This is the point at which I got angry. You should be angry also.

Some of my friends and family still worry: How do you know genes in the food are safe to eat? I explained the genetic engineering, the process of moving genes between species, has been used for more than 40 years in wines, in medicine, in plants, in cheeses. In all that time, there hasn’t been a single case of harm to human health or the environment. But I say, look, I’m not asking you to believe me.Science is not a belief system. My opinion doesn’t matter. Let’s look at the evidence. After 20 years of careful study and rigorous peer review by thousands of independent scientists, every major scientific organization in the world has concluded that the crops currently on the market are safe to eat and that the process of genetic engineering is no more risky than older methods of genetic modification. These are precisely the same organizations that most of us trust when it comes to other important scientific issues such as global climate change or the safety of vaccines.

The Greens argue you must trust the scientific consensus when it comes to climate change (and they’re right) but they hypocritically argue against science when it comes to genetic engineering, fracking or basically anything that doesn’t sit well their their near-religious Gaia viewpoint. They don’t believe in science. They just use it when it aligns with their beliefs.

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Midwives advocating against vaccinations

May 24th, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Expectant parents are being advised against vaccination by the very nurses and teachers who are supposed to give babies the best start in life.

The Immunisation Advisory Centre has received complaints of midwives and pregnancy class teachers trying to dissuade families from giving babies the MMR jab, despite overwhelming medical evidence that immunisation saves lives.

Dr Nikki Turner, the centre’s director, said some of the advice was “jaw-dropping”.

Women are being told vaccines are dangerous, unsafe or don’t work. In other cases there is no discussion of vaccine benefits. 

Any medical professional who lies about vaccines should face disciplinary action.

NZ College of Midwives advisor Lesley Dixon denied there were any midwives providing bad information. When told of midwives sharing anti-vaccine articles with expectant mums, Dixon said: “Women find the midwife that works for them.”

The College of Midwives time and time again seems to think their role is to defend all midwives, rather than uphold professional standards. At first they deny any midwives peddle anti-immunisation propaganda, and then when told there are some, just casually say people have a choice. They express no concern at all that their members are spreading information that may kill babies.

Parents were often not aware that having the whooping cough or flu vaccine during pregnancy also provided protection for the newborn baby, she said.

Whooping cough has caused four infant deaths over the past four years. A woman and her baby also died after contracting the flu in September 2013.

“Their deaths may have been preventable if the mothers were vaccinated,” Turner said. “It would be useful to have curriculum standards so if people chose to teach outside the curriculum you can challenge them.”

You expect nonsense from people who are not health professionals. But very disappointing to have so called health professionals giving such discredited advice.

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Ireland votes yes

May 24th, 2015 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Ireland is the first country in the world to approve same sex marriage by popular vote. In all other countries it has been the legislatures or judiciary.

Ireland is a profoundly religious and Catholic country, but they have voted 62% to 38% in favour of a constitutional amendment to allow same sex marriage – a landslide result.

Of the 43 electorates, 42 voted in favour. The votes in favour ranged from 75% to 49%.

Ireland is 84% Catholic and only 8% Atheist.

The text is:

Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex.

In 10 years time, I doubt there will be a single western country that doesn’t allow same sex marriage and the next generation will look back on the days when it was banned with the same puzzlement as today’s generation regard segregation in the US.

ausmarriage

This graph (HT: Mark Textor) shows the massive change in just ten years in Australia.  In the US support is at around 60%. Again, it won’t be an issue at all for the next generation.

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Is there any point to Rewa going on trial?

May 24th, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Phil Taylor writes in the HoS:

Malcolm Rewa murdered Susan Burdett. No other conclusion is possible.

He was the only assailant at her Papatoetoe home on the night of 23 March, 1992, when she was battered and raped.

He expertly got in and let himself out like the cat burglar he was, as he did in his attacks on so many other woman.

We know Rewa was there because his semen was in her body. …

The detective in charge of the case, Detective Inspector Steve Rutherford, since retired, put his finger on it in the weeks after the murder, telling media: “We believe that the person who had sex with her, murdered her.”

The Privy Council panel that in March quashed Pora’s convictions for rape and murder, went this far: “The man who raped Burdett was undoubtedly Malcolm Rewa,” Lord Kerr said.

I think there is no reasonable doubt Rewa murdered her.

Solicitor-General Mike Heron, QC, has ruled out putting Rewa on trial a third time, telling the Privy Council after it quashed Pora’s convictions that “no exceptional circumstances exist to justify lifting [the] stay” put on the Rewa murder prosecution 16 years ago by his predecessor after a second jury couldn’t decide about murder.

For the sake of Burdett’s family, and for justice, we say he should rule it back in.

He is already in jail for her rape. Is the cost of a massive trial worth it, when the practical impact is nil? It would be nice for the family to have it judicially confirmed that Rewa was both her killer and rapist, but Rewa has a sentence of preventive detention for his 24 rapes and is never going to be released from prison anyway.

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Police will love this app!

May 24th, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Cannabis users looking for someone to share a joint with have a new app that lets them find like-minded smokers around the world.

The creator of the Who is Happy app, a Brazilian epilepsy sufferer who wants the drug decriminalised, says his software is a kind of “Foursquare for stoners”, comparing it to the app that allows users to rate restaurants and other places they visit.

“The app is the first global platform of its kind allowing cannabis consumers to connect and unite to promote happiness while de-stigmatizing and hopefully decriminalising cannabis use around the world,” Paulo Costa said.

Users who anonymously log their location will see a green cloud appear on the app’s map, covering a 1-km  radius. They can then check to see if others are partaking anywhere nearby, or elsewhere in the world. A greater number of users increases a location’s “happiness” quotient.

I can see this app becoming very popular with undercover police officers – a way for people to tell the Police to come and arrest them!

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General Debate 24 May 2015

May 24th, 2015 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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Just desserts

May 24th, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

Back in April I blogged that I had little sympathy for Chris Roberts who was arrested after he tweeted onboard a flight:

“Find myself on a 737/800, lets see Box-IFE-ICE-SATCOM, ? Shall we start playing with EICAS messages? “PASS OXYGEN ON” Anyone ? :)” his tweet read.

It turns out he did more than tweet about hacking planes – he actually did it – and often.

Stuff reports:

A security researcher hijacked an airplane’s engines after hacking its in-flight entertainment systems, according to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation. 

Chris Roberts, a well-known US security researcher, told FBI agents in February that he’d hacked in-flight entertainment systems on over a dozen flights and on one occasion hijacked an aircraft’s thrust management computer and briefly altered its course. 

“[Roberts] stated that he thereby caused one of the airplane engines to climb resulting in a lateral or sideways movement of the plane during one of these flights,” FBI agent Mark Hurleywrote in a warrant application filed in April and obtained by technology publication Wired on Friday. 

The FBI seized Roberts’ computers and questioned him after he was escorted off a United Airlines flight last month, because he’d posted a tweet — apparently in jest — hinting he could tap into the aircraft’s crew alert system and cause passenger oxygen masks to drop. 

According to the document, during interviews in February and March, Roberts said he’d compromised in-flight entertainment systems on 15 to 20 flights between 2011 and 2014. Each time he’d pried open the cover of the electronics box located under passenger seats and would connect his laptop to the system with an ethernet cable. He’d also scan the network for security flaws and monitored communications from the cockpit. 

I have even less sympathy for him now. Taking over a plane by hacking is not a world different from taking it over with a gun.

Details of the warrant emerged as United Airlines launched a new program that will reward researchers with up to one million frequent flyer miles when they report to it new security flaws in its apps, websites and portals but not in-flight systems. 

The program takes a leaf from bug bounties run by Google and Microsoft, which collectively paid millions of dollars last year to researchers.

That’s a good idea. A true security professional would have immediately reported any vulnerability.

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Ford say mobile phone bans can be counter productive

May 23rd, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Car maker Ford believes that “hyper enforcement” of mobile phone laws could be contributing to more accidents.

In New Zealand, drivers drivers can not use hand-held mobile phone while driving unless it is an emergency situation, but the global leader for Ford’s infotainment interface, Jeff Greenberg, has said the onus should be on car makers to reduce mobile phone-related accidents with smarter technology.

Greenberg said the current strategy of simply banning mobile phones had encouraged motorists to be more discrete.

“You see this regularly with hyper enforcement – people who would normally hold their phone up high to text (gestures phone at eye level), which is still bad by the way, are now holding their phone down near their lap and completely taking their eyes off the road,” he said.

“There can be unintended consequences to being overly vigilant. That’s what our concern is: that whatever policies are adopted, that we really think through the unintended consequences to make sure we don’t make the problem worse.”

A valid point. A better approach would be car manufacturers making it easier for cellphones to pair with the native car systems.

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Cash incentives work to reduce smoking

May 23rd, 2015 at 3:13 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Would the promise of an US$800 (NZ$1075) payout motivate you to quit smoking? And if so, what’s the most effective way to dangle that reward?

Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania sought to answer those questions, with help from more than 2500 smokers who either worked for the US pharmacy chain CVS Caremark or were their family members or friends.

They found that financial incentives greatly improved the odds of kicking the habit. Compared with a control group that was offered “usual care” – including smoking cessation guides from the American Cancer Society and referrals to local anti-smoking resources – those who also were offered the prospect of a payday were far more likely to be smoke-free six months after their quit dates. The researchers also discovered that the type of incentive offered could make a big difference in a smoker’s chances of success, according to their report published Wednesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

The detail being:

People who had their own skin in the game had the greatest odds of success. Among those who were willing to make a US$150 (NZ$201) deposit that they could earn back by remaining smoke-free, the quit rate at six months was 52 per cent. That blew away the 17 per cent quit rate for those didn’t put up any of their own cash. It also bested the 6 per cent quit rate for those in the control group who only got usual care.

So by far the best results come when smokers stand to both gain money if they stop smoking, but also lose their own money if they don’t.

But the researchers said it’s not clear that the skin-in-the-game approach was the best way to go. Though the results were much better, smokers were far less likely to give it a try. Only 14 per cent of the study participants assigned to a deposit-based program were willing to fork over their money. In comparison, 90 per cent of those who didn’t have to shell out agreed to participate in their part of the experiment.

When the researchers took this into account, the success rate for the simple reward systems beat out the success rate for the deposit systems by margin of 16 per cent to 10 per cent. That was a statistically significant difference, the study authors wrote.

It is logical that fewer people are willing to put up their own money. But if they are, then it is more successful. So offering both programmes would seem to be the best thing to do.

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Lord Ashcroft analyses the UK election result

May 23rd, 2015 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Two interesting blog posts of Lord Ashcroft – the results of his post-election poll and a speech he gave to a post-election conference.

Some data from the poll:

  • Conservatives lost among under 55s, and won massively with over 65s. Labour got just 21% of over 65s.
  • Conservatives won in socio-economic classes AB and C1, tied in C2 and lost only in DE.
  • The most important factors in how people voted were trust of motives and values 75%, preferred promises 62%, the leader 45%
  • Most important issues were the NHS 55%, economic growth 51%, immigration 41%, cutting deficit 30%, cost of living 25%, welfare reform 20%, Europe 18%, schools 13%, environment 9%, crime 6%
  • 46% say austerity needs to continue, 30% say austerity was needed but no longer and 24% say austerity was never needed
  • Even 60% of Labour voters say austerity and spending cuts were needed

 

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Parliament 23 May 2015

May 23rd, 2015 at 11:10 am by David Farrar

The House remains urgency and is sitting from 9 am to 1 pm, 2 pm to 6 pm and 7 pm to midnight until the following bills are dealt with.

The KiwiSaver Budget Measures Bill proposes to remove the $1,000 KiwiSaver kick-start contribution paid to all new enrollees in the KiwiSaver scheme, effective from 2 pm on 21 May 2015.

The Border Processing (Arrivals and Departures) Levy Bill amends the Biosecurity Act 1993 and the Customs and Excise Act 1996 to introduce levies to fund the direct and indirect costs of activities carried out by the Ministry for Primary Industries and the New Zealand Customs Service relating to the processing of people arriving in and departing from New Zealand.

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Canon Media Awards winners

May 23rd, 2015 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Some winners from last night’s Canon Media Awards:

  • Best Blog – Jarrod Gilbert
  • Best Website – nzherald.co.nz
  • Newspaper of the Year – NZ Herald
  • Weekly Newspaper of  the Year – Sunday Star-Times
  • Reporter of the Year – Jared Savage
  • Junior Reporter of the Year – Talia Shadwell
  • Politics Reporter – David Fisher
  • Business Reporter – Matt Nippert
  • Best columnist – humour/satire – Deborah Hill Cone
  • Columnist of the Year – Michelle Hewitson
  • Wolfson Fellowship – Shayne Currie

Congrats to all the winners.

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General Debate 23 May 2015

May 23rd, 2015 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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How Transmission Gully would have made a difference

May 23rd, 2015 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

The Dom Post reports:

The Transmission Gully motorway could have provided a lifeline to almost 23,000 motorists stuck in gridlock during Wellington’s flooding.

Traffic modelling by the New Zealand Transport Agency suggests the planned inland motorway between Porirua and Paekakariki – scheduled to open in 2020 – would have significantly altered the civil defence emergency experienced across the region on Thursday.

With State Highway 1 closed by a landslip on the coast road between Pukerua Bay and Paekakariki, and SH2 at Petone submerged by floodwaters, about 30,000 people found themselves stranded in the capital. …

Even without natural disasters, Transmission Gully is expected to make a massive difference to traffic flows, reducing the number of vehicles using the coastal SH1 route to just 3090 – a drop of 86 per cent.

Raewyn Bleakley, the transport agency’s central region director, said the contract for the motorway, which is being built by a private consortium, sets out high standards for resilience to earthquakes, landslips and crashes.

The four-lane Gully route would be far more likely to stay open during a landslip than the existing two-lane coastal highway, which showed its vulnerability on Thursday, she said.

And we’re actually going to get it this decade, after 70 years of waiting.

Bruce Pepperell, civil defence controller for the Wellington region, said comments on the Civil Defence Facebook page during the flooding suggested Transmission Gully had never been so popular.

“It can’t come quick enough,” he said.

“When you’ve only got two main roads out of town, and they’re both gone, then you’re not playing with many aces up your sleeve.”

The pace with which SH1 and SH2 north of Wellington were both knocked out had civil defence staff “sweating” about the prospect of trying to find space in Wellington for an extra 30,000 people overnight, he said.

A Civil Defence-led report in 2013 predicted the Gully motorway would be of even greater value after a major earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or more, which is expected to severely damage Wellington’s main transport links.

Which is why I support it – it is not just about congestion. It is about Wellington not being cut off.

 

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Dim-Post on the left and the Budget

May 22nd, 2015 at 4:45 pm by David Farrar

Danyl McL looks at the Budget and notes:

I’ve been saying for a while that ‘neoliberalism’ – ie a belief in the efficacy of free markets, the distortionary evil of taxes and benefits and the minimalisation of the state – is dead. There are still a few adherents drifting around the fringes of politics that truly believe, but this budget seems like a good time to mark that in National the doctrine is obsolete. National believes in massive intervention in the economy, mostly in favor of their political donors but also in response to signals from their polling and market research, and English has raised or introduced so many taxes I’ve lost count. I don’t know what we’re supposed to call this mode of government, exactly, but it ain’t ‘neoliberal’.

Anyone who calls this Government neo-liberal is profoundly stupid, and thinks it is just a label to apply to anything you don’t like.

Not that I agree with Danyl that National intervenes in the economy to favour political donors. All donors over $15,000 are listed and they’re not the ones who benefit from intervention. The biggest beneficiary of corporate welfare is Kiwirail, followed by all those tech companies that the Callaghan Institute gives money to.

So, on one hand the opposition can put this budget down as a victory. They’ve made a big deal about the housing crisis and child poverty, and the government’s main policy changes have been the introduction of a capital gains tax and an increase in benefits to beneficiaries with families. Forcing your enemies to adopt your rhetoric and policies is a huge win.

Yep, it is a huge win for the left. A National Government has done what not even a Labour Government would do.

On the other hand, the opposition looked like clueless losers yesterday. What kind of left-wing politician opposes the gutting of the KiwiSaver kickstarter – pretty much the definition of middle-class welfare – to tackle child poverty?

Well both Labour and Greens do.

And Little’s speech was just awful. ‘Gene Simmons’? ‘Fiscal gender reassignment’? Why did he think it was a good idea to reference a source of internal division within his own party? What a mess.

It was the worst opposition leader’s budget speech I have seen.

The kids on the social media like to use the phrase ‘hot take’ to describe commentary that is hysterical and uninformed, and that’s what we got from the opposition parties yesterday, gouging their own eyes out with horror at a budget filled with ideas they’ve been demanding for years. Ridiculous.

When I saw the Budget in the lockup and realised how left-wing it was, the one small ray of consolation was that Labour and the Greens would probably be so shocked when they got a copy at 2 pm, they wouldn’t know what to do. Would they look ridiculous, as Danyl says, denouncing they very things they had been demanding, or would they think quickly on their feet.

If I had been the Greens I would have have claimed credit as the only party that had been advocating for an increase in benefit rates, and held the Budget up as an example of why it is important to have the Greens in Parliament – that they can make a difference – even from opposition.

Instead they all routinely denounced it. I guess it was the equivalent of National in 1986 condemning the free market reforms of the then Labour Government.

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Violent protests against giving beneficiaries first increase in 43 years

May 22nd, 2015 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

This is the so called Auckland Action Against Poverty, in response to the first increase in real benefit rates in 43 years. Lovely people aren’t they.

Sure you may argue it should be more, but the way they are carrying on, you’d think the Government had cut benefits by $25 a week!

They’re part of the demented 1% who won’t be happy until we have the communist nirvana of surgeons being paid the same as McDonalds staff.

Spokeswoman Sue Bradford said if the government was serious about dealing with poverty, it would lift benefits now to the same levels as superannuation

Let’s look at what this would cost.

The standard benefit for a job seeker aged 25 is $210.13 a week.

The standard benefit for a someone on NZ Super living alone is $374.53

So Bradford is demanding a 78.2% increase in non NZ Super benefits. They currently cost around $7.3 billion. So the annual cost of what the AAAP are violently demanding is an extra $5.7 billion a year in welfare payments. In reality it would be far more than that, as many more people would go on welfare.

Now I doubt they want health and education cut by $5.7 billion a year, so I imagine their response would be sock it to the rich and make them pay. Stick up the top tax rate from 33%.

A 1% increase brings in around $210 million a year so they need a 27% increase, meaning the top tax rate would have to be 60 cents in the dollar. Yep anything you earn over $70,000 would go 60/40 to the Government.

And that is just to fund their one sole demand.

Of course in reality a top tax rate of 60% would not bring in even half that amount of money. People would simply leave.

 

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