Kiwiblog

The Australian reports:

“I’m a very happy little vegemite being Prime Minister … being Foreign Minister of Australia,” he told ABC Central West today while on his way to Condobolin, west of Orange, to open a rotary-funded indigenous studies centre.

One can forgive Kevin for the slip-up, as regaining the top job must be at the top of his thoughts most of the time.

Recent polls have shown he would do much better against the Coalition than Julia Gillard. However she is genuinely liked by many of his colleagues and Rudd is not, so the decision is not as easy as it might otherwise be. But this latest poll is a shocker for Gillard:

Ms Gillard is now neck and neck with Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister among female voters, 39 per cent to 37 per cent, compared to 52 per cent to 33 per cent at the last election.

Abbott has always been considered a total turn-off for female voters. If he is only 2% behind amongst women, then his biggest weakness has been overcome.

It’s been a long battle, but great to see this story of New Zealand apples being sold in Sydney.

A guest post by Craig Watson:

My wife and I moved to Canberra, Australia from New Zealand a month ago for work. Always the political geek, I decided to make the most of my rostered day off (yay for the nine day fortnight!) and attend todays sitting of the Federal Parliament.

For those of you not up to date all is interesting in the land of the Labor led 43^rd Australian Parliament. I guess it has been this way since the independents and greens played off Tony and Julia after the election. I am sure most of you will remember that Tony Abbot’s Coalition had the better numbers but Julia and the Labor team were happy to offer more sweeteners and after many many days, nights and special news bulletins the Welsh-Australian playmaker wrangled in the Independents (ironically ‘country’ and possibly more right than central left) to pull together a majority that holds the balance of power by….one.

So for three main reasons (though there are many more) Julia faces her biggest challenge, not leadership like Phil back home, but in the balance of power. I would like to elaborate my view on these three points. I should say I am no political insider, nor do I hold a political degree, I am just an observer with a right leaning tendency.

(1)  The Union Sex scandal. Possibly the biggest threat in actual terms in this majority of one seat is an MP from NSW. I will not elaborate on Craig Thomson’s misgivings, here is a link http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/10082592/alp-fears-poll-outweighs-scandal/ , it seems the biggest factor is not what Craig has done (I think Union’s taking the financial piss is less that shocking, aye Matt McCarten??) but that Julia is sticking by her man. The reality is that if she does not then the marginal seat may well swing right and cause a snap election with the dissolution of the majority to hold parliament together. So really Osama Bin Laden as a Labor MP would have her support right now if it kept her in the thrones of power.

(2)  The Convoy of No Confidence. Okay so this one lacked the balls the opposition was hoping for (far less trucks and supporters), but the reality is that there is a real undercurrent of disillusionment with the current administration and the general public is well and truly over it. The fact the a non-political group hailing from all over the country felt the need to drive for over a week to make their feelings heard is a pretty credible sign of discontent. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/convoys-mixed-reactions/2265581.aspx

(3)  K-Rudd…… need I say more?

So back to my original statement of ‘Labor gone by November’. The rumour going around is that Craig Thomson will be forced to stand down. This will force a by-election in his seat and early polls suggest that it will not remain a Labor seat. Labor will lose it’s mandate to govern and hence….. gone by November?

Mike Rann is the Premier of South Australia, and fairly well known in NZ as an old school mate’s of Phil Goff. Has been a guest speaker at Labour conferences.

He effectively got rolled yesterday by the factions. This is despite him leading them to victory for a third election win in March 2010. They are only 15 months into a four year term.

They are negotiating his exact departure date.  If he can hold off until November, maybe him and Phil can retire together.

The NZ Herald reports:

Australia is the world’s “dumbest continent” where people “drink constantly” and are “quite racist”, according to training at Indian call centres.

Staff are taught “how to act Australian” and are told to “speak slowly” because Australians tend to be technologically “backwards”.

They are also warned that Australians are “touchy” about their pets and their preferred term for Indians is “brown bastards”.

The revelations appeared in an article in the US news magazine motherjones.com, which also refers to the British as sarcastic and Americans as shouty and “free with their anger”.

Perhaps mercifully, there is no reference to New Zealanders.

The drinking constantly line is beyond debate anyway

In my By the numbers blog at Stuff, I look at the woes of Julia Gillard as Labor drops to a 69 year low in the opinion polls there. It is predicted that an election on that poll result would see the Coalition with 115 seats to 43 for Labor.

The Australian reports:

LARISSA Behrendt was appointed to head the Gillard government’s review of indigenous higher education on the same day it was revealed she used her Twitter account to describe watching bestiality on television as “less offensive” than Aboriginal leader Bess Price.

The high-profile indigenous lawyer was yesterday forced into a humiliating apology to Ms Price, an Aboriginal woman who supports the federal intervention in Northern Territory communities, after indigenous leaders expressed outrage at the comment.

After watching Ms Price appear on the ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night, Professor Behrendt tweeted: “I watched a show where a guy had sex with a horse and I’m sure it was less offensive than Bess Price.”

Bess Price’s crime was to have supported the Howard Government’s intervention.

Respected indigenous academic Marcia Langton writes in The Australian today that she has “never witnessed such extreme disrespect shown by a younger Aboriginal woman for an older Aboriginal woman in my life, except where the perpetrator was severely intoxicated on drugs or alcohol”. She says Professor Behrendt’s “foul” tweet “is an exemplar of the wide cultural, moral and increasingly political rift between urban, left-wing, activist Aboriginal women and the bush women, who witness the horrors of life in their communities, much of which is arrogantly denied by the former”.

Sums it up perfectly I’d say.

The opposition yesterday called on the Gillard government to stand down Professor Behrendt, saying her appointment to the new role was offensive. Indigenous leader and former ALP president Warren Mundine said the tweet was one of the most offensive comments he had seen made about an Aboriginal woman. “I think some people need to grow up,” he said. “What she said was just dreadful. It was one of the worst comments I’ve ever heard. It’s very juvenile. Some of this debate has turned into schoolyard arguments rather than actually giving the facts and dealing with reality of life in these communities.

“I’ve heard Bess speak before and I think she speaks very powerfully about what it’s like to live in these places.”

This could damage the Gillard Government if they persist with her appointment.

Today NSW is voting for their state government, and around the only suspense is how badly will Labor me mauled as it is booted out of office.

The lower house has 93 seats (of which Labor has 50) and upper house has 42 seats (of which Labor has 19). Only 21/42 upper house seats are up for grabs.

The final Newspoll before the election had the Coalition with 64% of the two party preferred vote, and Labor on 36%. Also the Opposition Leader has a 485 rating as Preferred Premier to the incumbent – American born Kristina Keneally.

Labor have held office for 16 years, so their poor polling is a mixture of longevity, scandals, unpopular policies and incompetence.

The bookmakers are only offering $1.01 for a Coalition win and $36 for a Labor win!

So the real sport will be just how many seats will Labor lose. They hold 50 and some projections have that they will lose over half of those – to 25 or less.

The Herald reports:

Yesterday a Nielsen poll in the Sydney Morning Herald gave further bleak tidings for Keneally: a Coalition two-party preferred lead of 66 per cent to 34 per cent, an 18 per cent swing that would hew the number of Labor MPs in the Lower House from 50 to as few as 13.

Nielsen’s research director, John Stirton, told the SMH that the “astonishing” poll had revealed the biggest two-party preferred lead any party has had, state or federal, in Nielsen’s 39-year history.

That sort of result is indeed unprecedented. Can’t wait until election night.

The Age reports:

THE Coalition has opened an emphatic 54-46 per cent two-party lead in an Age/Nielsen poll that shows Labor’s primary vote and the Prime Minister’s popularity sliding.

This is the biggest lead the opposition has had over the Gillard government in Nielsen polls and – depending on preference allocation – probably its best result since early 2005. The Coalition’s two-party vote is up 3 percentage points since November, with Labor’s down 3 points.

On first preferences Labor is at 32% to 46% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens.

Gillard still leads as Preferred PM 51% to 41% for Abbott, but (outside election campaigns) the incumbent PM almost always polls highest as Preferred PM. Key out polling Clark from Opposition as Preferred PM was a rare exception.

NZPA reports:

Trade minister Tim Groser has welcomed a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling that says Australia’s 90-year-old restrictions on New Zealand apples are unscientific and break international rules.

Australia imposed the restrictions in 1921 to protect local apple trees from fireblight, a pest that also affects pear trees and rose bushes.

New Zealand has been pushing for access to the Australian market since 1986, and after “exhaustive efforts” took the dispute to the WTO.

The organisation’s Appellate Body found in favour of New Zealand in August, but Australia appealed the decision.

In a new decision released overnight, the body upheld its original findings that all 16 of Australia’a quarantine measures were inconsistent with its legal obligations.

The victory should allow New Zealand to resume apple exports to Australia and clear the way for sales to other markets where the fruit is also banned.

At long long last. This should be the end of the track.

If Australia refused to abide by the WTO decision, it would be a massive undermining of its credibility on trade issues. And they would actually be liable for trade sanctions.

The smart people in the Australian Government will be pleased with the outcome. By going all the way to a WTO appeal, they can say to their apple producers they have done everything possible, but they have to obey international law. And it allows them to remove this stain on their free trade credentials.

Victoria went to the polls yesterday. It has had Labor rule for 11 years and earlier this year were looking likely to be re-elected.

At this stage it looks like the Coalition (and it was the first election since 1999 when they were together as a Coalition) has won power with 45 out of 88 seats. Labor has 37 seats and is likely to end up with 43. It is still very possible there is a hung Parliament at 44 each.

The Coalition got 44.8% of the primary vote and Labor 36.9%. Greens did well at 10.6% but not as well as expected, and failed to win a seat. Labor attacked the Greens aggressively.

This may be the third election in a row where there has been a hung Parliament – Tasmania had one also, as did the Federal election.

Off this afternoon to Australia – again. Over the past decade I normally only end up in Australia once every two to three years. And for various reasons, this will be my 5th trip to Australia in the last five months.

On the plus side, I can now navigate Sydney CBD without a map!

1747: God they would not stop talking. I think they may regret agreeing to answer questions also. Tony Windsor said something which speaks volume.

He basically said one reason he went for Labor is because he thinks they will not hold another election until three years are up. When asked why he thinks the Coalition would be more likely to want an early election, he replied because they would win it!!

So one of the Independents has said that the Government is so unpopular it would lose a second election! Watch the Coalition put the pressure on in the next few weeks. Also watch for them to target winning those seats back next election with the line that a vote for them is a vote for Labor.

1706: UPDATE: And as expected and predicted Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have pledged supply and confidence to Labor, who squeak back for a second term, and Julia Gillard remains Prime Minister.

Even more importantly I just made $1,000 on iPredict

I note the 2 party preferred vote is still split right down the centre – 50.01% Coalition to 49.99% Labor.

1708: Windsor says the major issue that decided it for him was the fact Labor was committed to a nationwide fibre rollout, and the Coalition was not. Ironically in NZ last election it was National that committed $1.5B to a fibre rollout and Labour only $300m to general broadband.

1604: A press conference with the Independents is due to start at 3 pm in Australia, or 5pm in NZ.

Bob Katter has broken ranks though to announce he will support Abbott (as I predicted a few days ago). So it is 74-74.

All the signs are the two other Independents will go with Labor. Gillard will have her skills tested governing with such a weak mandate, and will be hoping there are no by-elections.

Abbott will be treated as an unsuccessful hero by the Coalition and remain Leader – for now. However at some stage they may reconsider if he is whom they want to go into 2013 with – if the Government lasts that long.

Sunday was a glorious today. We did nothing. Often when I am on holiday, I try and fit heaps in, on the basis I may not be back for a while. This can sometimes mean you finish the holiday more tried than when you started.

So Sunday consisted of mainly drinking in the apartment, with the occassional meal break. Superb.

Monday we went down to Circular Quay, as we had a lunchtime cruise planned. We had some spare time, so decided to visit the giant rugby ball.

The inside is set up Kiwi style, with a bar, stools, couches and can hold 150 at a time. Then the interior interior becomes a stunning video. You get to see a giant Umanga pick up the ball and kick it, some stunning NZ scenery etc. If the rugby ball comes near you, definitely go see it. Aussies were leaving it, and going straight to the RWC ticket box.

The botanic gardens and Sydney Opera House. I do regard Sydney as having the most spectacular harbour in the world – partly because it is so huge.

This is the most expensive real estate in Australia. You couldn’t buy any of these places for under A$20 million.

Kirribilli House, the Sydney residence of the Prime Minister. I’ve been there, and it has a premier view of the harbour. Some PMs have been criticised for spending so much time here, rather than at The Lodge in Canberra. But really why would you spend more time in Canberra than you had to, especially with this waiting for you?

This just amused me. I’m sure it is a breach of some OSH regulation.

The bridge that needs no introduction.

The 12x optical zoom actually worked very well in snapping these folks walking over the top of the bridge.

The cruise lasted two hours. We had an open bar package, which provided some unhealthy incentives. By the end of the cruise I was almost in favour of banning them.

Met up after the cruise with Paul W – a fairly regular commenter here, whom I hadn’t seen for over a decade or so. Enjoyed a wide ranging chat.

Then went home and drank lots of water.

Tony Abbott has done an open letter to the Independents in all the major newspapers.

I’m of the view that if your method of communication with the three men who will decide Government is through newspaper open letters, rather than face to face, then it is probably all over.

The possibly final issue being negotiated is over parliamentary reform, according to AAP:

The Coalition wanted the Speaker to be “automatically” drawn from the Opposition.

The document Labor has backed allows for the Speaker to come from either party or to be non-aligned.

If the Speaker does comes from a particular party the Deputy Speaker will come from the other side of politics. Pairing arrangements will be in place for both – meaning their vote will be cancelled out rather than lost.

“That will take away the need in the view of a tied vote for whoever’s in the chair to cast a vote,” Albanese said.

Further, both the Speaker and the Deputy will not attend their respective party room meetings.

I’m pretty sure the NZ Speaker does not attend caucus meetings, but the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Speakers do.

If they really need a neutral speaker, maybe we should lend them Lockie for six months, to show them what a good speaker does!

Questions during Question Time will be limited to 30 seconds and answers will be restricted to three minutes. They will have to be “directly relevant”.

I’m amazed there is no time limit on answers at the moment, and the limt they are going for is a whopping three minutes. In NZ the Speaker will cut you off if you go much over a minute I estimate.

A parliamentary budget office will also be established within the parliamentary library.

“It will be able to look at issues including costings, particularly from the Opposition but also individual members,” Labor’s house leadersaid.

Not a bad idea necessarily. However the current system where an opposition parliamentary party can have  Treasury staffer seconded to them works pretty well.

I suspect we will get a decision today, or tomorrow at the latest.

Having the iPad on the flight over was wonderful. I read around 25% of the Man in the Iron Mask. Seen the movies, and always wanted to read the original. The expiry of copyright means all the great classics are available for free to read.

Customs went very quickly. The only mishap was getting the luggage into the taxi. My duty free bag of two 1 litre bottles of rum got knocked onto its side. One bottle smashed and the other rolled onto a drain cover and then dropped into the sewer – unbroken. We could see it floating there. They cost NZ$20 each duty free and the replacement costs A$40 each – and for only 750ml. I was laughing when it happened though – the sight of the bottle floating there will prove too tempting for some homeless person

We went down to Circular Quay in the evening for dinner. The RWC giant rugby ball is very noticeable, from a large distance away.

The Sydney Opera House, with the Opera Bar below it where we drank and ate. Wellington is a great city, but the inability to have mass outdoor dining is something I miss, and love being able to do in other places.

The Sydney Harbour Bridge dominate the landscape.

This is the studio room at the Opera House. We went to see the Late Night Lounge, which was a lot of fun. I really enjoyed the Chooky Dancers and Madame Lark with her ability to mimic bird calls was excellent.

Sadly we were all a bit stuffed from being up at 4 am to catch the red eye, so we took off a bit before midnight (which was 2 am NZT) and missed the final segments. But was a good end to the day.

The signs are that Queensland MP Bob Katter will not support Labor. This may be a blessing in disguise for Julia Gillard, as Bob is rather eccentric.

Katter wants the mining tax and any ETS dropped. This makes it very unlikely that he will support a Labor-Green Government.

So it will all come down to Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. If they stick together they will decide the Government. If they disagree with each other, then the House is tied 75-75 and another election will be needed.

What still tips it Labor’s way in my view is that they are more likely to last three years, as the Greens will control the Senate from July 2011.

However the Independents will be concerned that their electorates may not like the policies of a Labor/Green Government, and if they go for that option they may risk losing their seats next election.

I’m off to Aussie tomorrow for the third time this year. The other two times were for work, but this one is a holiday – even better a free one.

I blogged in February that I had won the Drink Savvy party competition, run by Asia-Pacific Breweries – on the basis of the “drink savvy” party I blogged about on New Years Day.

The prize was $3,000 of travel vouchers, which have been shared with The Chef and the Ginga, as they hosted the party with me. We’re in Sydney from 4 to 8 September and Melbourne from 8 to 12 September. First time overseas for The Chef, so the trip has been much awaited. We will be taking full advantage of the duty free allowances at the airport, but in a “savvy” way

The trip will also be a double birthday celebration – one on the 4th and one on the 11th. Hope the duty free allowance lasts that long!

Andrew Wilkie has declared he will back Labor. This is no surprise. I wonder how many of his massive 26 point policy wishlist did they agree to. While no surprise, it gives Gillard momentum coming on the back of Treasury disagreeing with the coalition on the costs of their plans.

On the vote count, the coalition now has a 11,000 vote lead on the TPP vote.

I expect Gillard will do a deal with the three Independents in the next few days.

Day 12 and no result. The latest stories suggest there is pressure from within the electorates of the three Independents to go with the Coalition, but who knows. Their list of demands seems to grow by the day.

The latest two party preferred count has the Coalition ahead by 893 votes of almost 11 million. As a percentage it means they lead 50.004% to 49.996%. Truly a nation divided.

The Dom Post reports:

She could well be Australia’s next first lady – and she hails from Wellington’s “nappy valley”.

Margie Abbott has fond memories of trudging off to school in Wainuiomata in her galoshes with her slippers tucked in her school bag – and says her Aussie children can do the haka.

The wife of Liberal Party leader and hopeful prime minister Tony Abbott was born in Hutt Hospital and grew up in Wainuiomata before moving to Australia in 1983. She attended Fernlea School in the 1960s and then Wainuiomata High School.

“I can just remember things like every weekend I went down to Richard Prouse Park and I was very much involved in athletics,” she told The Dominion Post last night. “I played soccer for the Wainuiomata club for years and loved that.”

Former classmates remembered Margie Aitken as a quiet, academic girl. “She was a good student,” said one. They are now watching avidly to see if she becomes Australia’s first lady.

Ms Abbott trained as a teacher in Wellington and taught in Wainuiomata and Upper Hutt. She moved to Sydney in 1983 and met her future husband in a pub. They have now been married for more than 20 years.

I had never picked up that Mrs Abbott was from NZ. And not just for a few years as a kid, but well into her 20s.

If Abbott does become Prime Minister, that will be a useful link – he may be less inclined to stick it to us, as Paul Keating did.

Bill English’s office has put out a comparison of real (CPI adjusted) net (after tax) wage growth for a full-time worker on the average (mean) wage.

The Australian data only goes back to 1994, so the first time period compared is Sep 1994 to Sep 1999 – the final quarter before Labour took office.

During those five years the real net income for a FT worker on the average wage rose 13.2% in New Zealand and 6.2% in Australia.

Then over the next nine years from September 1999 to September 2008, the increase in New Zealand was 3.0% and in Australia it was 19.3%. Yep six times greater in Australia. They had high wages, low inflation and tax cuts. We had no tax cuts, higher inflation and lower wage increases.

From Since September 2008, to June 2010, the increase in New Zealand has been 8.7% vs 4.8% in Australia.

If one translates this to average annual increases, then the comparison would be:

• Sep 94 – Sep 99 – 2.6% NZ vs 1.2% Aust
• Sep 99 – Sep 08 – 0.3% NZ vs 2.1% Aust
• Sep 08 – Jun 10 – 5.0% NZ vs 2.7% Aust

Now the time periods used are slightly cheery picked, in that the latest period includes both the April 2009 tax cuts and the October 2008 tax cuts – so they do not correspond exactly to Government terms. But on the other hand Labour did the Oct 2008 tax cuts most grudgingly, because of the election, and probably would ave cancelled them if they had retained office.

The stat that stands out to me is that during those nine years from Sep 99 to Sep 08, the average after tax income only grew 0.3% a year. Fiscal drag mean someone on the average wage paid more and more tax as their salary increased.

Great humour, as usual, from The Chaser.

It is now 73 seats each as Labor have won a seat back off Andrew Wilkie – a former Green candidate. WIlkie was very likely to back Labor over the coalition anyway, so in one sense doesn’t change the overall dynamic.

However it does help perceptions, with Labor and Coalition now having the same number of seats. The Green MP will back Labor, so Labor can govern with at least two of three three Independents, while the Coalition needs all three.

If the Coalition loses a seat on specials, then Labor will retain power. The most marginal seat is Hasluck, where the current margin to the Coalition is 382 votes. It was 363 on election night so to date they are doing okay on specials.

Incidentally the coalition candidate is Ken Wyatt, who if confirmed will be the first indigenous Australia to be elected to the Federal House. I was staggered when I heard this.

NZ has had indigenous MPs since 1868. We currently have 20 MPs who are of Maori descent. As of 2004, NZ has had 79 Maori MPs (probably now over 90), so hard to comprehend how Australia is just about to have their first indigenous Federal MP.

Bob Katter is a hard fit for a Labor Government. Here is what he said on climate change:

“I mean, if you could imagine 20 or 30 crocodiles up there on the roof, and if all that roof was illumination, and saying that we wouldn’t see anything in this room because of a few croco-roaches up there,” he continued stating that “Are you telling me seriously that the world is going to warm because there’s 400 parts per million of CO2 up there?”

Yes he seriously argued that because crocodiles don’t totally block out all light, then carbon dioxide can’t be keeping heat in.

The other two Independents are more friendly to Labor, and there are reports they may split from Katter.