“I’m a very happy little vegemite being Prime Minister … being Foreign Minister of Australia,” he told ABC Central West today while on his way to Condobolin, west of Orange, to open a rotary-funded indigenous studies centre.

One can forgive Kevin for the slip-up, as regaining the top job must be at the top of his thoughts most of the time.

Recent polls have shown he would do much better against the Coalition than Julia Gillard. However she is genuinely liked by many of his colleagues and Rudd is not, so the decision is not as easy as it might otherwise be. But this latest poll is a shocker for Gillard:

Ms Gillard is now neck and neck with Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister among female voters, 39 per cent to 37 per cent, compared to 52 per cent to 33 per cent at the last election.

Abbott has always been considered a total turn-off for female voters. If he is only 2% behind amongst women, then his biggest weakness has been overcome.

My wife and I moved to Canberra, Australia from New Zealand a month ago for work. Always the political geek, I decided to make the most of my rostered day off (yay for the nine day fortnight!) and attend todays sitting of the Federal Parliament.

For those of you not up to date all is interesting in the land of the Labor led 43^rd Australian Parliament. I guess it has been this way since the independents and greens played off Tony and Julia after the election. I am sure most of you will remember that Tony Abbot’s Coalition had the better numbers but Julia and the Labor team were happy to offer more sweeteners and after many many days, nights and special news bulletins the Welsh-Australian playmaker wrangled in the Independents (ironically ‘country’ and possibly more right than central left) to pull together a majority that holds the balance of power by….one.

So for three main reasons (though there are many more) Julia faces her biggest challenge, not leadership like Phil back home, but in the balance of power. I would like to elaborate my view on these three points. I should say I am no political insider, nor do I hold a political degree, I am just an observer with a right leaning tendency.

(1)  The Union Sex scandal. Possibly the biggest threat in actual terms in this majority of one seat is an MP from NSW. I will not elaborate on Craig Thomson’s misgivings, here is a link http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/10082592/alp-fears-poll-outweighs-scandal/ , it seems the biggest factor is not what Craig has done (I think Union’s taking the financial piss is less that shocking, aye Matt McCarten??) but that Julia is sticking by her man. The reality is that if she does not then the marginal seat may well swing right and cause a snap election with the dissolution of the majority to hold parliament together. So really Osama Bin Laden as a Labor MP would have her support right now if it kept her in the thrones of power.

(2)  The Convoy of No Confidence. Okay so this one lacked the balls the opposition was hoping for (far less trucks and supporters), but the reality is that there is a real undercurrent of disillusionment with the current administration and the general public is well and truly over it. The fact the a non-political group hailing from all over the country felt the need to drive for over a week to make their feelings heard is a pretty credible sign of discontent. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/convoys-mixed-reactions/2265581.aspx

(3)  K-Rudd…… need I say more?

So back to my original statement of ‘Labor gone by November’. The rumour going around is that Craig Thomson will be forced to stand down. This will force a by-election in his seat and early polls suggest that it will not remain a Labor seat. Labor will lose it’s mandate to govern and hence….. gone by November?

He effectively got rolled yesterday by the factions. This is despite him leading them to victory for a third election win in March 2010. They are only 15 months into a four year term.

They are negotiating his exact departure date.  If he can hold off until November, maybe him and Phil can retire together.

Australia is the world’s “dumbest continent” where people “drink constantly” and are “quite racist”, according to training at Indian call centres.

Staff are taught “how to act Australian” and are told to “speak slowly” because Australians tend to be technologically “backwards”.

They are also warned that Australians are “touchy” about their pets and their preferred term for Indians is “brown bastards”.

The revelations appeared in an article in the US news magazine motherjones.com, which also refers to the British as sarcastic and Americans as shouty and “free with their anger”.

Perhaps mercifully, there is no reference to New Zealanders.

The drinking constantly line is beyond debate anyway

LARISSA Behrendt was appointed to head the Gillard government’s review of indigenous higher education on the same day it was revealed she used her Twitter account to describe watching bestiality on television as “less offensive” than Aboriginal leader Bess Price.

The high-profile indigenous lawyer was yesterday forced into a humiliating apology to Ms Price, an Aboriginal woman who supports the federal intervention in Northern Territory communities, after indigenous leaders expressed outrage at the comment.

After watching Ms Price appear on the ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night, Professor Behrendt tweeted: “I watched a show where a guy had sex with a horse and I’m sure it was less offensive than Bess Price.”

Bess Price’s crime was to have supported the Howard Government’s intervention.

Respected indigenous academic Marcia Langton writes in The Australian today that she has “never witnessed such extreme disrespect shown by a younger Aboriginal woman for an older Aboriginal woman in my life, except where the perpetrator was severely intoxicated on drugs or alcohol”. She says Professor Behrendt’s “foul” tweet “is an exemplar of the wide cultural, moral and increasingly political rift between urban, left-wing, activist Aboriginal women and the bush women, who witness the horrors of life in their communities, much of which is arrogantly denied by the former”.

Sums it up perfectly I’d say.

The opposition yesterday called on the Gillard government to stand down Professor Behrendt, saying her appointment to the new role was offensive. Indigenous leader and former ALP president Warren Mundine said the tweet was one of the most offensive comments he had seen made about an Aboriginal woman. “I think some people need to grow up,” he said. “What she said was just dreadful. It was one of the worst comments I’ve ever heard. It’s very juvenile. Some of this debate has turned into schoolyard arguments rather than actually giving the facts and dealing with reality of life in these communities.

“I’ve heard Bess speak before and I think she speaks very powerfully about what it’s like to live in these places.”

This could damage the Gillard Government if they persist with her appointment.

The lower house has 93 seats (of which Labor has 50) and upper house has 42 seats (of which Labor has 19). Only 21/42 upper house seats are up for grabs.

The final Newspoll before the election had the Coalition with 64% of the two party preferred vote, and Labor on 36%. Also the Opposition Leader has a 485 rating as Preferred Premier to the incumbent – American born Kristina Keneally.

Labor have held office for 16 years, so their poor polling is a mixture of longevity, scandals, unpopular policies and incompetence.

The bookmakers are only offering $1.01 for a Coalition win and $36 for a Labor win!

So the real sport will be just how many seats will Labor lose. They hold 50 and some projections have that they will lose over half of those – to 25 or less.

Yesterday a Nielsen poll in the Sydney Morning Herald gave further bleak tidings for Keneally: a Coalition two-party preferred lead of 66 per cent to 34 per cent, an 18 per cent swing that would hew the number of Labor MPs in the Lower House from 50 to as few as 13.

Nielsen’s research director, John Stirton, told the SMH that the “astonishing” poll had revealed the biggest two-party preferred lead any party has had, state or federal, in Nielsen’s 39-year history.

That sort of result is indeed unprecedented. Can’t wait until election night.

THE Coalition has opened an emphatic 54-46 per cent two-party lead in an Age/Nielsen poll that shows Labor’s primary vote and the Prime Minister’s popularity sliding.

This is the biggest lead the opposition has had over the Gillard government in Nielsen polls and – depending on preference allocation – probably its best result since early 2005. The Coalition’s two-party vote is up 3 percentage points since November, with Labor’s down 3 points.

On first preferences Labor is at 32% to 46% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens.

Gillard still leads as Preferred PM 51% to 41% for Abbott, but (outside election campaigns) the incumbent PM almost always polls highest as Preferred PM. Key out polling Clark from Opposition as Preferred PM was a rare exception.

Trade minister Tim Groser has welcomed a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling that says Australia’s 90-year-old restrictions on New Zealand apples are unscientific and break international rules.

Australia imposed the restrictions in 1921 to protect local apple trees from fireblight, a pest that also affects pear trees and rose bushes.

New Zealand has been pushing for access to the Australian market since 1986, and after “exhaustive efforts” took the dispute to the WTO.

The organisation’s Appellate Body found in favour of New Zealand in August, but Australia appealed the decision.

In a new decision released overnight, the body upheld its original findings that all 16 of Australia’a quarantine measures were inconsistent with its legal obligations.

The victory should allow New Zealand to resume apple exports to Australia and clear the way for sales to other markets where the fruit is also banned.

At long long last. This should be the end of the track.

If Australia refused to abide by the WTO decision, it would be a massive undermining of its credibility on trade issues. And they would actually be liable for trade sanctions.

The smart people in the Australian Government will be pleased with the outcome. By going all the way to a WTO appeal, they can say to their apple producers they have done everything possible, but they have to obey international law. And it allows them to remove this stain on their free trade credentials.

At this stage it looks like the Coalition (and it was the first election since 1999 when they were together as a Coalition) has won power with 45 out of 88 seats. Labor has 37 seats and is likely to end up with 43. It is still very possible there is a hung Parliament at 44 each.

The Coalition got 44.8% of the primary vote and Labor 36.9%. Greens did well at 10.6% but not as well as expected, and failed to win a seat. Labor attacked the Greens aggressively.

This may be the third election in a row where there has been a hung Parliament – Tasmania had one also, as did the Federal election.

On the plus side, I can now navigate Sydney CBD without a map!

He basically said one reason he went for Labor is because he thinks they will not hold another election until three years are up. When asked why he thinks the Coalition would be more likely to want an early election, he replied because they would win it!!

So one of the Independents has said that the Government is so unpopular it would lose a second election! Watch the Coalition put the pressure on in the next few weeks. Also watch for them to target winning those seats back next election with the line that a vote for them is a vote for Labor.

1706: UPDATE: And as expected and predicted Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have pledged supply and confidence to Labor, who squeak back for a second term, and Julia Gillard remains Prime Minister.

Even more importantly I just made $1,000 on iPredict

I note the 2 party preferred vote is still split right down the centre – 50.01% Coalition to 49.99% Labor.

1708: Windsor says the major issue that decided it for him was the fact Labor was committed to a nationwide fibre rollout, and the Coalition was not. Ironically in NZ last election it was National that committed $1.5B to a fibre rollout and Labour only $300m to general broadband.

1604: A press conference with the Independents is due to start at 3 pm in Australia, or 5pm in NZ.

Bob Katter has broken ranks though to announce he will support Abbott (as I predicted a few days ago). So it is 74-74.

All the signs are the two other Independents will go with Labor. Gillard will have her skills tested governing with such a weak mandate, and will be hoping there are no by-elections.

Abbott will be treated as an unsuccessful hero by the Coalition and remain Leader – for now. However at some stage they may reconsider if he is whom they want to go into 2013 with – if the Government lasts that long.

So Sunday consisted of mainly drinking in the apartment, with the occassional meal break. Superb.

Monday we went down to Circular Quay, as we had a lunchtime cruise planned. We had some spare time, so decided to visit the giant rugby ball.

The inside is set up Kiwi style, with a bar, stools, couches and can hold 150 at a time. Then the interior interior becomes a stunning video. You get to see a giant Umanga pick up the ball and kick it, some stunning NZ scenery etc. If the rugby ball comes near you, definitely go see it. Aussies were leaving it, and going straight to the RWC ticket box.

The botanic gardens and Sydney Opera House. I do regard Sydney as having the most spectacular harbour in the world – partly because it is so huge.

This is the most expensive real estate in Australia. You couldn’t buy any of these places for under A$20 million.

Kirribilli House, the Sydney residence of the Prime Minister. I’ve been there, and it has a premier view of the harbour. Some PMs have been criticised for spending so much time here, rather than at The Lodge in Canberra. But really why would you spend more time in Canberra than you had to, especially with this waiting for you?

This just amused me. I’m sure it is a breach of some OSH regulation.

The bridge that needs no introduction.

The 12x optical zoom actually worked very well in snapping these folks walking over the top of the bridge.

The cruise lasted two hours. We had an open bar package, which provided some unhealthy incentives. By the end of the cruise I was almost in favour of banning them.

Met up after the cruise with Paul W – a fairly regular commenter here, whom I hadn’t seen for over a decade or so. Enjoyed a wide ranging chat.

Then went home and drank lots of water.

I’m of the view that if your method of communication with the three men who will decide Government is through newspaper open letters, rather than face to face, then it is probably all over.

The possibly final issue being negotiated is over parliamentary reform, according to AAP:

The Coalition wanted the Speaker to be “automatically” drawn from the Opposition.

The document Labor has backed allows for the Speaker to come from either party or to be non-aligned.

If the Speaker does comes from a particular party the Deputy Speaker will come from the other side of politics. Pairing arrangements will be in place for both – meaning their vote will be cancelled out rather than lost.

“That will take away the need in the view of a tied vote for whoever’s in the chair to cast a vote,” Albanese said.

Further, both the Speaker and the Deputy will not attend their respective party room meetings.

I’m pretty sure the NZ Speaker does not attend caucus meetings, but the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Speakers do.

If they really need a neutral speaker, maybe we should lend them Lockie for six months, to show them what a good speaker does!

Questions during Question Time will be limited to 30 seconds and answers will be restricted to three minutes. They will have to be “directly relevant”.

I’m amazed there is no time limit on answers at the moment, and the limt they are going for is a whopping three minutes. In NZ the Speaker will cut you off if you go much over a minute I estimate.

A parliamentary budget office will also be established within the parliamentary library.

“It will be able to look at issues including costings, particularly from the Opposition but also individual members,” Labor’s house leadersaid.

Not a bad idea necessarily. However the current system where an opposition parliamentary party can have  Treasury staffer seconded to them works pretty well.

I suspect we will get a decision today, or tomorrow at the latest.

Customs went very quickly. The only mishap was getting the luggage into the taxi. My duty free bag of two 1 litre bottles of rum got knocked onto its side. One bottle smashed and the other rolled onto a drain cover and then dropped into the sewer – unbroken. We could see it floating there. They cost NZ$20 each duty free and the replacement costs A$40 each – and for only 750ml. I was laughing when it happened though – the sight of the bottle floating there will prove too tempting for some homeless person

We went down to Circular Quay in the evening for dinner. The RWC giant rugby ball is very noticeable, from a large distance away.

The Sydney Opera House, with the Opera Bar below it where we drank and ate. Wellington is a great city, but the inability to have mass outdoor dining is something I miss, and love being able to do in other places.

The Sydney Harbour Bridge dominate the landscape.

This is the studio room at the Opera House. We went to see the Late Night Lounge, which was a lot of fun. I really enjoyed the Chooky Dancers and Madame Lark with her ability to mimic bird calls was excellent.

Sadly we were all a bit stuffed from being up at 4 am to catch the red eye, so we took off a bit before midnight (which was 2 am NZT) and missed the final segments. But was a good end to the day.

Katter wants the mining tax and any ETS dropped. This makes it very unlikely that he will support a Labor-Green Government.

So it will all come down to Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. If they stick together they will decide the Government. If they disagree with each other, then the House is tied 75-75 and another election will be needed.

What still tips it Labor’s way in my view is that they are more likely to last three years, as the Greens will control the Senate from July 2011.

However the Independents will be concerned that their electorates may not like the policies of a Labor/Green Government, and if they go for that option they may risk losing their seats next election.

I blogged in February that I had won the Drink Savvy party competition, run by Asia-Pacific Breweries – on the basis of the “drink savvy” party I blogged about on New Years Day.

The prize was $3,000 of travel vouchers, which have been shared with The Chef and the Ginga, as they hosted the party with me. We’re in Sydney from 4 to 8 September and Melbourne from 8 to 12 September. First time overseas for The Chef, so the trip has been much awaited. We will be taking full advantage of the duty free allowances at the airport, but in a “savvy” way

The trip will also be a double birthday celebration – one on the 4th and one on the 11th. Hope the duty free allowance lasts that long!

On the vote count, the coalition now has a 11,000 vote lead on the TPP vote.

I expect Gillard will do a deal with the three Independents in the next few days.