Kiwiblog

Guest Post by Peter Freedman:

It had to happen. Sooner or later Bob Katter would do something absolutely tasteless, totally without any merit of any kind, to try to win votes in the Queensland State election.

Katter is a sort of Australian Winston Peters. He has been in politics for yonks and recently formed his own party. He called it the Australia Party, then decided a more humble The Katter Party sounded better and tried to delay the entire election while the change was made. He lost that round.

Now he has come up with this ad:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/newman-to-prioritise-fair-dinkum-normal-families-20120312-1utcj.html

For those who can’t get to the link, the ad about is the attitude of opponent, Liberal leader Campbell Newman, over gay marriage.  It repeats the same clip of Newman saying he supports gay marriage, interspersed with a pixelated pic of two apparently naked men being friendly, but not THAT friendly.

The ad asks: “Is a vote for Campbell Newman a vote for gay marriage?” The answer to that incredibly complex question will come later.

On the surface it is just a grubby tasteless ad, the sort that has become a part of modern politics. Sigh at the drop in standards and move on.

Yet this ad has caused a huge kerfuffle in Australia! You would think The Governor General had been snapped performing oral sex on the Prime Minister, while the entire Australia cricket team stood admiringly waiting their turn.

Yes, this is a strange country. The GG, Quentin Bryce, is actually a female.  Ask that question at your next trivia night.

But the reaction to this ad is probably the strangest I have seen since arriving in Australia. Everyone is talking about it. Still worse I can’t find anyone who is defending it, except Bob K himself of course. And me.

The ad, while perhaps disgusting and offensive to some, is true. Newman DOES support gay marriage. The pic of the two men is not indecent, the pixels cover their chests, FFS, and the shot stops well before the dangly bits.

Isn’t this ad just another example of free speech?

Not if you believe last night’s Q and A on the ABC.  There were five people on the panel, an Aboriginal leader, a bright young Labor Cabinet minister, an elderly weather beaten farming leader, a cocky youthful feminist writer and a Liberal MP who wants to be the party leader but dare not say so. A more diverse mob would be hard to find.

Yet they all agreed. Katter’s ad should be banned. It demonized gay people, it was homophobic and deeply objectionable. Throw it on the fire, I say!

But wait, there’s more. Australia’s third most rightwing columnist, Andrew Bolt, the same gentleman so adored by Australia’s fourth most rightwing columnist, Janet Albrechtsen, wants the ad banned as well. Or so the feminist writer said.

Bolt’s blog is here:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/katter_disgraces_himself/

Nowhere that I can find does he call for a ban. But he clearly didn’t like the advertisement, terms like “a vile ad, openly and shamelessly appealing to homophobia” tend to give that impression.

Unfortunately for his credibility, Bolt has been openly and shamelessly appealing to the worst of human nature for years.  This man has been openly and shamelessly in and out of court so often there’s talk of providing a revolving door marked “Andrew Bolt Entrance” on one side and “Andrew Bolt Exit” on the other.

Bolt is a “Stolen Generation” denier. Despite all the historical documentation he continues to claim that large numbers of black kids weren’t snatched from their families to be placed with white families. He once asked a professor to provide “just 10 names” of stolen kids.  When the prof produced four pages of names, Bolt still remained unconvinced.

Then he defamed a magistrate, claiming she had hugged two drug traffickers as she set them free.  The magistrate said she shook their hands to congratulate them for completing a rehab programme and a jury believed her. Bolt got it wrong because he couldn’t be bothered contacting the magistrate for her side of the story, one of the first things I learned when I became a journalist. It is called “balance” or “getting both sides”.

That little mishap cost Bolt, or his employers, $246,000 in damages.

Then in late 2010, Bolt was sued by seven people for a series of columns claiming white people in Australia sometimes pretend to be black for political or career advancement. Again he was found to have broken the law. Fortunately for his employers the seven only wanted their names cleared and sought no money .

Every time he is criticized Bolt falls back on his rights  of free speech.  But isn’t Bob Katter’s ad free speech? Apparently not.

I am of Jewish ancestry. If a Nazi in full uniform marched up and down a public spot yelling  “Sieg Heil” I wouldn’t stop and offer him some matzo ball soup.  But I would believe he had a right to make a dick  of himself, whether  beschnittener or unbeschnittener. It’s called free speech.

“I disapprove of what you say, but will defend with my life your right to say it” – Though these words are regularly attributed to Voltaire, they were first used by Evelyn Beatrice Hall, writing under the pseudonym of Stephen G Tallentyre in The Friends of Voltaire (1906).

 “Where they burn books, they will ultimately burn people also”  Henrich Heine,99 years before the Nazis came to power.

 Think about it.

For the record I do not agree with what Peter has said on Andrew Bolt.  Nowhere has Bolt said the ad should be banned (as noted) so there is no issue of consistency. I would have thought Peter would welcome the leading conservative commentator in Australia saying “But to oppose civil unions is just bloody-minded interference in the lives of others”.

There is also another side of the story on the issues cited about Bolt. For example the debate about the stolen generation wasn’t whether or not lots of Aboriginal children were not put into white families. It was about how many were taken without the consent of a parent, and where there was no abuse – which is far fewer number.

A guest post by Peter Freedman:

When I told them I was moving to Queensland, all my Bananaland mates, includung the conservatuves, had one piece of advice: Watch out for the Queensland Police.

“They’re aggressive, unpleasant, corrupt and a pack of bastards” one wrote me. And he is a policeman!

Since then I have had three meetings with the Maroons in blue.

No1: Shortly after we arrived in Brisbane, my teenage granddaughter and two of her mates asked me to take them to Subway for lunch. The carpark was tight and slightly uphill. Backing out, my towbar accidentally touched the bumper of the car behind.

I got out, spoke to the other driver who inspected his car and declared there was no damage done. We shook hands and were both about to leave when some scruffy character in jeans and a sweat shirt demanded to see my licence. He was a plainclothes policeman, he claimed, flashing a gun and a warrant card.

And so he was. He breathalysed me and warned that, technically, I was an unlicensed driver (a NZ licence is valid in Australia for only four months).

The other driver intervened, saying that no damage had been done, and was warned he would be arrested. Finally, unable to catch me for anything, the officer stalked away.

No 2: My wife and I drove north of Brisbane to Gympie, a pleasant little town a couple of hours away. We found a restaurant and settled in for lunch (I was then thrown out for not wearing shoes, but that’s another story). We settled in at a second eating place where the staff didn’t care whether I was barefoot or not.

We had a Leisurely meal, with a cocktail to start and shared a bottle of wine. Then started to drive back into town.

On a four lane motorway. most of it very straight, my wife was pulled over for exceeding the speed limit. Speed limits in Queensland are crazy, one moment the limit can be 120kph, then 100, then 110, then back to 120 again.

The cop declared my wife was just under the limit, but still required her to travel with him to the cop shop for a blood test. I was left to follow them in our car. Interestingly Mr Plod never asked ME if I had been drinking or even if I had a licence.

I gave up trying to keep in touch with his police car, which weaved among the traffic, sometimes excdeeding 140kph.When I finally found the police station this prick was waiting for me, demanding to know why I took so long. When I told him, he shouted: “Nonsense, you don’t know you’re talking about.” He then demanded I not come on to police property!

As soon as he had disappeared inside I went hunting for a superior officer and found a very friendly acting Senior Sergeant who took my complaint.

Leaving the station, I bumped into the Senior Constable again.

“Your wife was very lucky,” he snarled, “She was just under the limit.”

“Well, you’re not so lucky,” I replied, “I have just laid a complaint about you.”

“Won’t do you any good. We’re bulletproof,” he boasted back. He then refused to show me his warrant card and when I tried to shake hands with him asked me: “Why should I shake hands with the likes of you?”

It took several weeks for my complaint to be acknowledged. Then I received a curt letter saying it had been investigated, no further action would be taken, and the matter was closed.

I wrote back, stating it was far from closed. I asked how the investigation was conducted, who was interviewed and why I was not spoken to by the investigators. I received back a second copy of the first letter.

Weeks later, someone apparently decided this was not quite good enough and wrote to me again. This time I was told the constable had been interviewed, my wife questioned (she was sitting in the back of the car and had no idea how fast it was going). The letter then said the constable could not possibly have been speeding if you compared the distance he travelled with the time he had taken.

This evidence, of course demonstrates only the average speed, part of the journey was through a built up area!

No 3: I was stopped by a cop, a good one this time, for having expired registration (“rego” , of course in Australia). He approached me armed with a large screwdriver…..

Having yet to become used to police carrying guns, I had this vision of being stabbed to death, rather than shot down. But no, all he wanted to do was to remove the number plates. It cost me $750 in fines, another $350 to reregister the car, plus $70 for the Australian equivalent of a WOF.

The policeman also mentioned I was an unlicensed driver and to “get that fixed some time”.

Cripes, this is a crazy country!

I must say that I often think we don’t realise how lucky we are with our Police.

Another guest post from Peter Freedman:

Queensland politics is different from those anywhere else in the world.

First they produced Joh Bjelke Petersen, probably the only interesting human being ever to come out of Dannevirke.

Joh was a crook, no two ways about it. When the law finally caught up with him and he was charged with perjury, Sir Joh beat the wrap by somehow smuggling one of his most fervent supporters on to the jury. The young man obediently refused to accept the plethora of evidence against his idol and caused a hung jury.

The authorities somehow managed to find Sir Joh was too gaga to stand trial a seconed time, so the crookest polly in Australian history died without a stain on his black character.

But Joh wasn’t alone. One of his Ministers, a man mountain named Russ Hinze. was once stopped for speeding. He pulled out a map of Queensland from the glove box, pointed to some spot in the middle of the state amd inquired of the cowering cop: “Now, sonny, how would you like to be transported to THERE?”

Hinze’s favourite saying was “never conduct an enquiry until you know for sure what the outcome will be”. Like his mentor he died just soon enough to avoid going to prison.

Sir Joh, whose wife Flo was famous for her scones but little else, also had his share of saws. Conducting press conferences was “feeding the chooks” and his consistent reply to any awkward question was: “Don’t you worry about that…….”

He also once told the London Spectator Queensland would be far better off it banned the media. That way, he declared “No-one would know anything”. Hard to argue with his logic, anyway,

Queenslanders go to the polls again on March 24, but even that isn’t certain. There’s a cat amongst the pigeons – a Katter to be precise.

Only Queensland could produce a man like Bob Katter, a mixture of Joh and Winston Peters in a ten-gallon hat.

Katter may single handedly delay the election because after registering his party as the Australian Party, he humbly changed his mind and decided it should be called the Katter Party. So he toddled off to court demanding that 2,000,000 voting papers be destroyed so the correct party name could be included in the new ones. Australians are a nation of gamblers, with more racecourses than any other nation, but the odds on Bob aren’t good.

The chances of a change in Government are, however. Labor is trying to win its ninth consecutive election, which must be some sort of record everywhere but in Singapore, so the “let’s give the other mob a go” syndrome is well and truly at work. But the other mob are not in great shape.

They had so much faith in their Parliamentary leader that they dumped him shortly before the election and replaced him with someone who wasn’t even an MP!So exit Jon Paul Whatsisname and enter stage right Campbell “Can Do” Newman, Lord Mayor of Brisbane, surely the only Parliamentary leader in the world who has to watch the proceedings of the House from the public gallery and cannot utter a word without being evicted.

The move was understandable. The Labor Premier, Anna Bligh, great-great-great-greatgranddaughter of William Bligh of the Bounty, is every bit as stubborn as her illustrious predecessor and equally liable to flog her underlings if they don’t perform.

But she inherited a mess from Peter Beattie, including a ticking time bomb called the Queensland Health payroll which is such a dog’s breakfast it overpaid some workers up to $300,000 and now wants its money back.

But “Can Do” also has his problems, it seems that if anything crooked can be done in business “Can Do” has already done it. Dodgy little tricks like his family setting up a company to flog flood protection software just a few days after South East Queensland was inundated (as it was US software, the FBI is showing an interest) or helping a property developer gain permission to build two high risers on the Gold Coast in return for seven donations to his election coffers, under seven different names. This could only have been leaked by someone within the LNP, probably one of the current Liberal MPs, all of whom refused to give up their seats to allow Newman to slip into Parliament by byelection.

So Newman is standing in the Labor-held seat of Ashgrove in Brisbane, and he has a fight on his hands against the popular Kathy Jones. His party could win, but Newman could be defeated, giving Jon Paul Whatsisname a chance to return in triumph.

Current Premier Anaa Bligh is very impressive and gave such a stellar performance during the floods that, albeit briefly, her party gained in the polls. It has since fallen back, and defeat looks very likely.

Somehow, down there in the bowels of Hell where he belongs, I can hear sir Joh saying with a grin: “Now, don’t you worry about that……..”

I love the description of Bob Katter – it’s perfect.

The Australian Kangaroo Court blogs on what is proposed in Australia:

 “If a publisher distributes more than 3000 copies of print per issue or a news internet site has a minimum of 15 000 hits per annum it should be subject to the jurisdiction of the News Media Council, but not otherwise. These numbers are arbitrary, but a line must be drawn somewhere.” (15,000 hits a year is just under 300 hits a week which is almost every blogger who posts at least twice a month. Whether he means page views or unique browsers I do not know but it does not make much difference at the end of the day. It is a very low number and would even capture high school children who have a blog)

If the report author has referred to hits he is technically illiterate. You get a hit for every item on a page. One page view can generate 3o hits. And the idea of blogs being forced into this new regulatory body is a huge threat to bloggers in Australia.

There should be a legal requirement that if a regulated media outlet refuses to comply with a News Media Council determination the News Media Council or the complainant should have the right to apply to a court of competent jurisdiction for an order compelling compliance. Any failure to comply with the court order should be a contempt of court and punishable in the usual way.

And so this News Media Council could force bloggers to remove content, without any trial or proof of defamation etc.

I’m glad the proposals in NZ from the Law Commission are so much more sensible (while not perfect), than what is proposed in Australia.

Submissions on the Law Commission’s preliminary proposals on media regulation can be made at http://www.lawcom.govt.nz/project/review-regulatory-gaps-and-new-media?quicktabs_=issues_paper. Submissions close on March 12 2012.

This is a guest post by commenter Peter Freedman, who has offered to do a semi-regular guest post on Australian politics.

This is a tale of a menage a trois among three people – Kevin, Julia and Tony.

Kevin hates Julia and Julia hates Kevin. Tony detests both of them.

Kevin used to be Prime Minister of Australia and wants to be again. Julia IS PM, but probably not for long. Tony wants so desperately to be PM he’d probably kill Kervin and Julia to get there.

Let’s start with Kevin. Known inevitably as Krudd, he is the candidate from heaven, a chubby cheeked cherub with skin of milk who sends matrons aquiver. All they want is to clasp him to their ample bosom.  But underneath the angelic appearance is a foul-mouthed, temper tantrummed tyrant who has been described as a sociopath and a psychopath ( by his friends!).

People love him because he is so adorable and swearing is compulsory here, even from committed Christians.

Kevin was an awful PM who couldn’t find his phone because of the mess on his desk. But he could speak Mandarin, which made him a perfect Foreign Minister. Now he isn’t either, and Australia is both richer and poorer as a result.

Now to Julia. She is a Helen Clark clone without the political savvy. A lawyer, she once pronounced “hyperbole” as “hyperbowl”. Even Australians, who talk about “chance” and “dance”, instead of “charnce” and “darnce” knew “hyperbowl” right.

Julia, variously known as “Joolya” or “Juliar” knows less about political tactics than your average earthworm. Her fuck ups are legendary – her latest was to drag in former NSW Premier Bob Carr as Foreign Minister without bothering to consult Defence Minister Stephen Smith who really, really, really wanted the job. PS: Watch Smith, he is a future Australian Prime Minister.

Julia has courage, deliberately breaking her promise on a carbon tax was as brave as anything I’ve seen in a long time.

So Labor has Kevin, popular but hopeless, and Juliia, unpopular but highly capable. United the two would make a bloody good PM, but given they won’t even talk to each other, any sort of conjoining is unlikely.

And now we come to Tony, known as Jug Ears or Budgie Smuggler, due to his wearing “sweemers” (that’s togs to you) which so configurate his genitals as to resemble a helpless bird

Tony is the only thing Labor has going for it. Imagine Trevor Mallard heading Labour in NZ…………the rottweiller turned into pack leader. Find out what Abbott did to Pauline Hanson, it definitely wasn’t consensual.

And I thought Australian politics were boring………

Peter lives in Queensland, Australia.

At 1 am in in Washington DC, Australian Foreign Minister has resigned from the Cabinet after reports that Gillard was considering sacking him on Tuesday, to bring the leadership speculation to a halt. The SMH reports:

Kevin Rudd appears to have launched an audacious pitch for the Prime Ministership with a dramatic resignation from his foreign affairs portfolio in Washington.

In a press conference at 1am, United States time, Mr Rudd told reporters he did not have the confidence of Prime Minister Julia Gillard or his Cabinet colleagues. Mr Rudd said that made his position as Foreign Minister untenable.

“While I am sad to leave this office I am sadder still that it has come to this,” Mr Rudd said, ending his media conference without taking questions.

Mr Rudd’s decision is a dramatic escalation of Labor’s leadership stoush. In a pointed reference to his caucus colleagues, Mr Rudd said they needed to consider who was the best candidate to defeat Opposition leader Tony Abbott at the next federal election.

“There is one over-riding question for my caucus colleagues and that is who is best placed to defeat Tony Abbott at the next election,” Mr Rudd.

It sounds like Rudd does not have the numbers to beat Gillard, but he may put it to a vote on Tuesday. He is twice as popular as her with the public, but many of his colleagues would rather lose their seats than have him as leader again.

The Australian reports:

“I’m a very happy little vegemite being Prime Minister … being Foreign Minister of Australia,” he told ABC Central West today while on his way to Condobolin, west of Orange, to open a rotary-funded indigenous studies centre.

One can forgive Kevin for the slip-up, as regaining the top job must be at the top of his thoughts most of the time.

Recent polls have shown he would do much better against the Coalition than Julia Gillard. However she is genuinely liked by many of his colleagues and Rudd is not, so the decision is not as easy as it might otherwise be. But this latest poll is a shocker for Gillard:

Ms Gillard is now neck and neck with Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister among female voters, 39 per cent to 37 per cent, compared to 52 per cent to 33 per cent at the last election.

Abbott has always been considered a total turn-off for female voters. If he is only 2% behind amongst women, then his biggest weakness has been overcome.

It’s been a long battle, but great to see this story of New Zealand apples being sold in Sydney.

A guest post by Craig Watson:

My wife and I moved to Canberra, Australia from New Zealand a month ago for work. Always the political geek, I decided to make the most of my rostered day off (yay for the nine day fortnight!) and attend todays sitting of the Federal Parliament.

For those of you not up to date all is interesting in the land of the Labor led 43^rd Australian Parliament. I guess it has been this way since the independents and greens played off Tony and Julia after the election. I am sure most of you will remember that Tony Abbot’s Coalition had the better numbers but Julia and the Labor team were happy to offer more sweeteners and after many many days, nights and special news bulletins the Welsh-Australian playmaker wrangled in the Independents (ironically ‘country’ and possibly more right than central left) to pull together a majority that holds the balance of power by….one.

So for three main reasons (though there are many more) Julia faces her biggest challenge, not leadership like Phil back home, but in the balance of power. I would like to elaborate my view on these three points. I should say I am no political insider, nor do I hold a political degree, I am just an observer with a right leaning tendency.

(1)  The Union Sex scandal. Possibly the biggest threat in actual terms in this majority of one seat is an MP from NSW. I will not elaborate on Craig Thomson’s misgivings, here is a link http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/10082592/alp-fears-poll-outweighs-scandal/ , it seems the biggest factor is not what Craig has done (I think Union’s taking the financial piss is less that shocking, aye Matt McCarten??) but that Julia is sticking by her man. The reality is that if she does not then the marginal seat may well swing right and cause a snap election with the dissolution of the majority to hold parliament together. So really Osama Bin Laden as a Labor MP would have her support right now if it kept her in the thrones of power.

(2)  The Convoy of No Confidence. Okay so this one lacked the balls the opposition was hoping for (far less trucks and supporters), but the reality is that there is a real undercurrent of disillusionment with the current administration and the general public is well and truly over it. The fact the a non-political group hailing from all over the country felt the need to drive for over a week to make their feelings heard is a pretty credible sign of discontent. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/convoys-mixed-reactions/2265581.aspx

(3)  K-Rudd…… need I say more?

So back to my original statement of ‘Labor gone by November’. The rumour going around is that Craig Thomson will be forced to stand down. This will force a by-election in his seat and early polls suggest that it will not remain a Labor seat. Labor will lose it’s mandate to govern and hence….. gone by November?

Mike Rann is the Premier of South Australia, and fairly well known in NZ as an old school mate’s of Phil Goff. Has been a guest speaker at Labour conferences.

He effectively got rolled yesterday by the factions. This is despite him leading them to victory for a third election win in March 2010. They are only 15 months into a four year term.

They are negotiating his exact departure date.  If he can hold off until November, maybe him and Phil can retire together.

The NZ Herald reports:

Australia is the world’s “dumbest continent” where people “drink constantly” and are “quite racist”, according to training at Indian call centres.

Staff are taught “how to act Australian” and are told to “speak slowly” because Australians tend to be technologically “backwards”.

They are also warned that Australians are “touchy” about their pets and their preferred term for Indians is “brown bastards”.

The revelations appeared in an article in the US news magazine motherjones.com, which also refers to the British as sarcastic and Americans as shouty and “free with their anger”.

Perhaps mercifully, there is no reference to New Zealanders.

The drinking constantly line is beyond debate anyway

In my By the numbers blog at Stuff, I look at the woes of Julia Gillard as Labor drops to a 69 year low in the opinion polls there. It is predicted that an election on that poll result would see the Coalition with 115 seats to 43 for Labor.

The Australian reports:

LARISSA Behrendt was appointed to head the Gillard government’s review of indigenous higher education on the same day it was revealed she used her Twitter account to describe watching bestiality on television as “less offensive” than Aboriginal leader Bess Price.

The high-profile indigenous lawyer was yesterday forced into a humiliating apology to Ms Price, an Aboriginal woman who supports the federal intervention in Northern Territory communities, after indigenous leaders expressed outrage at the comment.

After watching Ms Price appear on the ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night, Professor Behrendt tweeted: “I watched a show where a guy had sex with a horse and I’m sure it was less offensive than Bess Price.”

Bess Price’s crime was to have supported the Howard Government’s intervention.

Respected indigenous academic Marcia Langton writes in The Australian today that she has “never witnessed such extreme disrespect shown by a younger Aboriginal woman for an older Aboriginal woman in my life, except where the perpetrator was severely intoxicated on drugs or alcohol”. She says Professor Behrendt’s “foul” tweet “is an exemplar of the wide cultural, moral and increasingly political rift between urban, left-wing, activist Aboriginal women and the bush women, who witness the horrors of life in their communities, much of which is arrogantly denied by the former”.

Sums it up perfectly I’d say.

The opposition yesterday called on the Gillard government to stand down Professor Behrendt, saying her appointment to the new role was offensive. Indigenous leader and former ALP president Warren Mundine said the tweet was one of the most offensive comments he had seen made about an Aboriginal woman. “I think some people need to grow up,” he said. “What she said was just dreadful. It was one of the worst comments I’ve ever heard. It’s very juvenile. Some of this debate has turned into schoolyard arguments rather than actually giving the facts and dealing with reality of life in these communities.

“I’ve heard Bess speak before and I think she speaks very powerfully about what it’s like to live in these places.”

This could damage the Gillard Government if they persist with her appointment.

Today NSW is voting for their state government, and around the only suspense is how badly will Labor me mauled as it is booted out of office.

The lower house has 93 seats (of which Labor has 50) and upper house has 42 seats (of which Labor has 19). Only 21/42 upper house seats are up for grabs.

The final Newspoll before the election had the Coalition with 64% of the two party preferred vote, and Labor on 36%. Also the Opposition Leader has a 485 rating as Preferred Premier to the incumbent – American born Kristina Keneally.

Labor have held office for 16 years, so their poor polling is a mixture of longevity, scandals, unpopular policies and incompetence.

The bookmakers are only offering $1.01 for a Coalition win and $36 for a Labor win!

So the real sport will be just how many seats will Labor lose. They hold 50 and some projections have that they will lose over half of those – to 25 or less.

The Herald reports:

Yesterday a Nielsen poll in the Sydney Morning Herald gave further bleak tidings for Keneally: a Coalition two-party preferred lead of 66 per cent to 34 per cent, an 18 per cent swing that would hew the number of Labor MPs in the Lower House from 50 to as few as 13.

Nielsen’s research director, John Stirton, told the SMH that the “astonishing” poll had revealed the biggest two-party preferred lead any party has had, state or federal, in Nielsen’s 39-year history.

That sort of result is indeed unprecedented. Can’t wait until election night.

The Age reports:

THE Coalition has opened an emphatic 54-46 per cent two-party lead in an Age/Nielsen poll that shows Labor’s primary vote and the Prime Minister’s popularity sliding.

This is the biggest lead the opposition has had over the Gillard government in Nielsen polls and – depending on preference allocation – probably its best result since early 2005. The Coalition’s two-party vote is up 3 percentage points since November, with Labor’s down 3 points.

On first preferences Labor is at 32% to 46% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens.

Gillard still leads as Preferred PM 51% to 41% for Abbott, but (outside election campaigns) the incumbent PM almost always polls highest as Preferred PM. Key out polling Clark from Opposition as Preferred PM was a rare exception.

NZPA reports:

Trade minister Tim Groser has welcomed a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling that says Australia’s 90-year-old restrictions on New Zealand apples are unscientific and break international rules.

Australia imposed the restrictions in 1921 to protect local apple trees from fireblight, a pest that also affects pear trees and rose bushes.

New Zealand has been pushing for access to the Australian market since 1986, and after “exhaustive efforts” took the dispute to the WTO.

The organisation’s Appellate Body found in favour of New Zealand in August, but Australia appealed the decision.

In a new decision released overnight, the body upheld its original findings that all 16 of Australia’a quarantine measures were inconsistent with its legal obligations.

The victory should allow New Zealand to resume apple exports to Australia and clear the way for sales to other markets where the fruit is also banned.

At long long last. This should be the end of the track.

If Australia refused to abide by the WTO decision, it would be a massive undermining of its credibility on trade issues. And they would actually be liable for trade sanctions.

The smart people in the Australian Government will be pleased with the outcome. By going all the way to a WTO appeal, they can say to their apple producers they have done everything possible, but they have to obey international law. And it allows them to remove this stain on their free trade credentials.

Victoria went to the polls yesterday. It has had Labor rule for 11 years and earlier this year were looking likely to be re-elected.

At this stage it looks like the Coalition (and it was the first election since 1999 when they were together as a Coalition) has won power with 45 out of 88 seats. Labor has 37 seats and is likely to end up with 43. It is still very possible there is a hung Parliament at 44 each.

The Coalition got 44.8% of the primary vote and Labor 36.9%. Greens did well at 10.6% but not as well as expected, and failed to win a seat. Labor attacked the Greens aggressively.

This may be the third election in a row where there has been a hung Parliament – Tasmania had one also, as did the Federal election.

Off this afternoon to Australia – again. Over the past decade I normally only end up in Australia once every two to three years. And for various reasons, this will be my 5th trip to Australia in the last five months.

On the plus side, I can now navigate Sydney CBD without a map!

1747: God they would not stop talking. I think they may regret agreeing to answer questions also. Tony Windsor said something which speaks volume.

He basically said one reason he went for Labor is because he thinks they will not hold another election until three years are up. When asked why he thinks the Coalition would be more likely to want an early election, he replied because they would win it!!

So one of the Independents has said that the Government is so unpopular it would lose a second election! Watch the Coalition put the pressure on in the next few weeks. Also watch for them to target winning those seats back next election with the line that a vote for them is a vote for Labor.

1706: UPDATE: And as expected and predicted Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have pledged supply and confidence to Labor, who squeak back for a second term, and Julia Gillard remains Prime Minister.

Even more importantly I just made $1,000 on iPredict

I note the 2 party preferred vote is still split right down the centre – 50.01% Coalition to 49.99% Labor.

1708: Windsor says the major issue that decided it for him was the fact Labor was committed to a nationwide fibre rollout, and the Coalition was not. Ironically in NZ last election it was National that committed $1.5B to a fibre rollout and Labour only $300m to general broadband.

1604: A press conference with the Independents is due to start at 3 pm in Australia, or 5pm in NZ.

Bob Katter has broken ranks though to announce he will support Abbott (as I predicted a few days ago). So it is 74-74.

All the signs are the two other Independents will go with Labor. Gillard will have her skills tested governing with such a weak mandate, and will be hoping there are no by-elections.

Abbott will be treated as an unsuccessful hero by the Coalition and remain Leader – for now. However at some stage they may reconsider if he is whom they want to go into 2013 with – if the Government lasts that long.

Sunday was a glorious today. We did nothing. Often when I am on holiday, I try and fit heaps in, on the basis I may not be back for a while. This can sometimes mean you finish the holiday more tried than when you started.

So Sunday consisted of mainly drinking in the apartment, with the occassional meal break. Superb.

Monday we went down to Circular Quay, as we had a lunchtime cruise planned. We had some spare time, so decided to visit the giant rugby ball.

The inside is set up Kiwi style, with a bar, stools, couches and can hold 150 at a time. Then the interior interior becomes a stunning video. You get to see a giant Umanga pick up the ball and kick it, some stunning NZ scenery etc. If the rugby ball comes near you, definitely go see it. Aussies were leaving it, and going straight to the RWC ticket box.

The botanic gardens and Sydney Opera House. I do regard Sydney as having the most spectacular harbour in the world – partly because it is so huge.

This is the most expensive real estate in Australia. You couldn’t buy any of these places for under A$20 million.

Kirribilli House, the Sydney residence of the Prime Minister. I’ve been there, and it has a premier view of the harbour. Some PMs have been criticised for spending so much time here, rather than at The Lodge in Canberra. But really why would you spend more time in Canberra than you had to, especially with this waiting for you?

This just amused me. I’m sure it is a breach of some OSH regulation.

The bridge that needs no introduction.

The 12x optical zoom actually worked very well in snapping these folks walking over the top of the bridge.

The cruise lasted two hours. We had an open bar package, which provided some unhealthy incentives. By the end of the cruise I was almost in favour of banning them.

Met up after the cruise with Paul W – a fairly regular commenter here, whom I hadn’t seen for over a decade or so. Enjoyed a wide ranging chat.

Then went home and drank lots of water.

Tony Abbott has done an open letter to the Independents in all the major newspapers.

I’m of the view that if your method of communication with the three men who will decide Government is through newspaper open letters, rather than face to face, then it is probably all over.

The possibly final issue being negotiated is over parliamentary reform, according to AAP:

The Coalition wanted the Speaker to be “automatically” drawn from the Opposition.

The document Labor has backed allows for the Speaker to come from either party or to be non-aligned.

If the Speaker does comes from a particular party the Deputy Speaker will come from the other side of politics. Pairing arrangements will be in place for both – meaning their vote will be cancelled out rather than lost.

“That will take away the need in the view of a tied vote for whoever’s in the chair to cast a vote,” Albanese said.

Further, both the Speaker and the Deputy will not attend their respective party room meetings.

I’m pretty sure the NZ Speaker does not attend caucus meetings, but the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Speakers do.

If they really need a neutral speaker, maybe we should lend them Lockie for six months, to show them what a good speaker does!

Questions during Question Time will be limited to 30 seconds and answers will be restricted to three minutes. They will have to be “directly relevant”.

I’m amazed there is no time limit on answers at the moment, and the limt they are going for is a whopping three minutes. In NZ the Speaker will cut you off if you go much over a minute I estimate.

A parliamentary budget office will also be established within the parliamentary library.

“It will be able to look at issues including costings, particularly from the Opposition but also individual members,” Labor’s house leadersaid.

Not a bad idea necessarily. However the current system where an opposition parliamentary party can have  Treasury staffer seconded to them works pretty well.

I suspect we will get a decision today, or tomorrow at the latest.

Having the iPad on the flight over was wonderful. I read around 25% of the Man in the Iron Mask. Seen the movies, and always wanted to read the original. The expiry of copyright means all the great classics are available for free to read.

Customs went very quickly. The only mishap was getting the luggage into the taxi. My duty free bag of two 1 litre bottles of rum got knocked onto its side. One bottle smashed and the other rolled onto a drain cover and then dropped into the sewer – unbroken. We could see it floating there. They cost NZ$20 each duty free and the replacement costs A$40 each – and for only 750ml. I was laughing when it happened though – the sight of the bottle floating there will prove too tempting for some homeless person

We went down to Circular Quay in the evening for dinner. The RWC giant rugby ball is very noticeable, from a large distance away.

The Sydney Opera House, with the Opera Bar below it where we drank and ate. Wellington is a great city, but the inability to have mass outdoor dining is something I miss, and love being able to do in other places.

The Sydney Harbour Bridge dominate the landscape.

This is the studio room at the Opera House. We went to see the Late Night Lounge, which was a lot of fun. I really enjoyed the Chooky Dancers and Madame Lark with her ability to mimic bird calls was excellent.

Sadly we were all a bit stuffed from being up at 4 am to catch the red eye, so we took off a bit before midnight (which was 2 am NZT) and missed the final segments. But was a good end to the day.

The signs are that Queensland MP Bob Katter will not support Labor. This may be a blessing in disguise for Julia Gillard, as Bob is rather eccentric.

Katter wants the mining tax and any ETS dropped. This makes it very unlikely that he will support a Labor-Green Government.

So it will all come down to Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. If they stick together they will decide the Government. If they disagree with each other, then the House is tied 75-75 and another election will be needed.

What still tips it Labor’s way in my view is that they are more likely to last three years, as the Greens will control the Senate from July 2011.

However the Independents will be concerned that their electorates may not like the policies of a Labor/Green Government, and if they go for that option they may risk losing their seats next election.

I’m off to Aussie tomorrow for the third time this year. The other two times were for work, but this one is a holiday – even better a free one.

I blogged in February that I had won the Drink Savvy party competition, run by Asia-Pacific Breweries – on the basis of the “drink savvy” party I blogged about on New Years Day.

The prize was $3,000 of travel vouchers, which have been shared with The Chef and the Ginga, as they hosted the party with me. We’re in Sydney from 4 to 8 September and Melbourne from 8 to 12 September. First time overseas for The Chef, so the trip has been much awaited. We will be taking full advantage of the duty free allowances at the airport, but in a “savvy” way

The trip will also be a double birthday celebration – one on the 4th and one on the 11th. Hope the duty free allowance lasts that long!