Kiwiblog

A massive upset in Australia. Not so much that Malcolm Turnbll got roleld as Liberal Leader, but that his successor is Tony Abbott.

news.com.au reports:

TONY Abbott has rolled Malcolm Turnbull to take over the Liberal leadership in a spill forced by deep divisions on the Opposition’s climate change policy.

Mr Abbott, Mr Turnbull and Joe Hockey contested a three-way spill at a special partyroom meeting in Parliament this morning.  Mr Abbott won by a single vote, 42-41.

Mr Hockey – who had been expected to win in a landslide – was eliminated in the first round of voting.  That sent Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull into a head-to-head vote for the leadership.

But those deep divisions remain.  Yesterday Mr Hockey was demanding a free vote to decide Coalition policy on climate change early next year, if he were to agree to take on the leadership.

That angered right-wing Liberal powerbrokers and prompted Mr Abbott to stay in the race for the top job.  Turns out that was a good call.

A very good call. But the real winner is Kevin Rudd who will easily win re-election now I would say.

The vote to have a contest was 48 to 34. Then the first round ballot was Abbott 35, Turnbull 26 and Hockey 23. Turnbull almost got wiped out on the first ballot. Abbott picked up seven votes from Hockey and Turnbull picked up 15, for a final result of 42-41.

Abbott is a brawler, but hard to see him attracting widespread support to become PM.

A few days ago Peter Costello announced he will contnue with his plans to retire from politics, and not take up the Liberal Party leadership which would has been his for the taking.

Now Liberal Leader Brendan Nelson has called for a leadership ballot, to force Malcolm Turnbull to challenge or pledge loyalty. Turnbull has confirmed he will challenge. Nelson beat Turnbull in an upset victory last year.

In theory Nelson should be toast as he has massively low approval ratings, and his colleagues have little confidence in him.

But Turnbull, while talented, is very unpopular with many of his colleagues. It is likely Nelson will retain the leadership. A pity to some degree, as I think Turnbull has many good ideas and policies in terms of economic reform.

Also Labor’s one year reign of total government is over. Since they won the federal election they were uniqely in government in all eight states and territories as well as federally. That has ended in Western Australia though.

The Liberal Party got 38.5% and Labor 35.8%, plus Nationals 4.9% (and Greens 11.9%). The Nationals only contested a few seats and won four seats giving the balance of power.

Now you might think this means an automatic victory for the Libs, but WA is the one state where the Libs and Nats are not formally aligned, so just like in NZ in 1996 the major parties bidded for the Nats affection and they negotiated deals with each party. They finally opted to go with the Liberal Party.

UPDATE: Turnbull won 45-41. This is good.

There are two coups in the air – one in Australia, and one in the United Kingdom. Let us take the UK one first.

As Labour MPs face decimation, Gordon Brown’s position is perilous. He may become the first UK Prime Minister since Neville Chamberlain to never face a general election.

The Telegraph reports:

Gordon Brown is being openly undermined by Cabinet ministers who are now publicly questioning his future as Prime Minister.

The Labour Party has no option but to replace him as leader or face certain defeat at the next general election, said one.

“We cannot go any lower,” the minister said, following Labour’s disastrous defeat in the Glasgow East by-election, one of the biggest upsets in political history.

“We are at rock bottom. The evidence is there for all to see. We are not a one-nation party any more. We are now a no-nation party. We cannot win in Scotland, we cannot win in England, we cannot win in Wales.

“There is only one thing that can be done, and it’s a change of leader.”

Another Cabinet minister added: “It has just moved from possible to probable that Gordon will be toppled.”

Apart from losing one of their safest seats, Labour is 22% behind the Conservatives in the latest polls – this would give them a 236 seat majority.

What will be interesting is who replaces Brown. It may be a poisoned chalice.

The other mounting coup appears to be in the Australian Liberal Party.

Peter Costello served as Deputy Leader and Treasurer to John Howard for over a decade. Howard refused to stand aside for him and when the Libs lost the 2007 election, it looked like Costello’s career was also over.

He did not contest the leadership post-Howard, realising Kevein Rudd could be expected to serve at least two terms, and that he was unlikely to survive to become PM one day. So he did not stand and made noises about retiring.

But things have changed. Brendan Nelson has been a very unimpressive leader, while the ambitious Malcolm Turnbull is mistrusted by many of his colleagues.

But why would Costello be reconsidering just because of that? It si because he thinks he can beat Kevin Rodd at the next election. Now Rudd is still very popular and ahead in the polls, but his focus on stunts is starting to gain negative publicity. But more relevant is the economy. Costelle presided over a decade of economic growth. If the Australian economy is not in good shape in 18 months time, then Costello will be seen as proven economic manager who could win against Rudd.

This is not as certain as Brown being a goner. But Costello is showing all the signs of keeping hos options open:

PETER Costello will map out an ambitious reform agenda in his political memoir – including a pathway to a republic – giving him the platform to launch a bid for the Liberal leadership.

The former treasurer will use his much-anticipated autobiography, to be published in October, to outline a list of priority reforms.

He will also lay out challenges facing Australia in a move to distance himself from John Howard’s “conservative” agenda.

And if things go well there may be a NZ leadership election later this year also!