Kiwiblog

Okay over 600 votes in a couple of days. So let’s look at the results. Not remember these are not scientific results, but they do give some idea of the sentiments of Kiwiblog readers over time.

First we have the net approval ratings. This is the % who give an above average rating less the % who give a below average rating. The results are, with previous results, below.

So in terms of net approval eight out of nine Ministers have a positive rating. The exception is Nick Smith, and in my opinion that is probably more a reflection of sentiment on the ETS.

Six Ministers have improved their ratings since last August, and three have dipped. Those three are Power, Smith and Finlayson. There is perhaps a common theme of some discontent with certain policies coming through.

The nine Ministers in order of net approval are Key, Ryall, Collins, English, Finlayson, Brownlee, Power, Tolley and Smith. Note these are the blog poll ratings – not my personal views.

The PM has had a big lift in approval from last year – perhaps a combination of the Earthquake and the Hobbit movies. he has reclaimed the top spot.

English seems to have recovered from the housing issues of 2009 also, and has a solid +40% ratings

Gerry Brownlee would probably get the prize for most improved – from a +2% in Mar 2009 to +27% today.

Simon Power has gone the other way – he was 2nd highest in March 2009 and is in 7th place now. Perhaps the talk of regulating the Internet has not helped.

Ryall and Collins basically continue to have excellent ratings – Ryall especially has had a big jump up.

Nick Smith remains at No 9. Again, I think this is partly because of his portfolios.

Anne Tolley gains 10% from last year and seems to be gaining some fans for her refusal to be cowed by the unions.

Chris Finlayson retains a solid rating but has dropped a fair bit – no doubt linked to the Foreshore & Seabed issues.

Now let’s look at what I call the weighted average. This is where you assign a weight of 100% for very good, 75% for good, 50% for average, 25% for poor and 0% for very poor. This calculation captures the intensity of approval and disapproval, and anything over 50% signifies an above average rating.

Three Ministers are in the 70s – Key, Ryall and Collins. In the 60s we have Finlayson and English. The 59s have Power, Brownlee and Tolley and Nick Smith at under 50%.

So overall sentiment about most Ministers is up from 14 months ago – close to the what it was in the first half of 2009.

I’ll try and remember to do another of these in the 1st half of 2011.

It’s been a while (14 months in fact) since my last blog poll on the Front Bench. These are not scientific, but it is interesting to see how readers regard the various Ministers are performing – and also how things have changed over time.

You can vote in the left hand sidebar – there is a poll for each of the nine Ministers. Go and have your say.

The last summary of blog polls was in June. These are fun, not scientific. results since then have been:

1. 62% think Phil Goff will remain Labour Leader until the election
2. 24% said Brazil would win the FIFA World Cup, 20% Germany, 19% Argentina and only 11% correctly picked Spain
3. 59% (in June) said they thought the Coalition would win the Australian election
4. 70% support a ban on smoking in prisons
5. 75% said Pete Bethune pisses them off more than the Japanese Whalers
6. 77% support extending the 90 day trial provisions from small employers to all employers
7. 25% think Carter wrote the letter to the gallery as malicious payback vs Goff for demoting him, 6% think because he genuinely does not think Labour can win under Goff and 69% say both
8. 54% thought Labour would expel Chris Carter
9. 51% think KiwiSaver should be made compulsory
10. 64% blame Allan Hubbard for the collapse of SCF, and 12% each blame the global recession, the cirrent Government and the former Government
11. 52% approve of the Canterbury Earthquake legislation
12. 76% oppose Labour’s policy to remove GST off fresh fruit and vegetables
13. Only 43% think TVNZ did the right thing in accepting Paul Henry’s resignation

Has been a year since my last summary of blog poll results. They are of course fun, not scientific. The results are:

1. Only 17% said Richard Worth should remain as an MP
2. 66% said David Shearer’s majority will be smaller than Helen Clark’s
3. 16% of respondents use Twitter (June 2009)
4. 58% agreed owners of safer cars should pay lower ACC levies
5. 85% opposed the proposed requirement to add folic acid to bread
6. 58% have smoked cannabis
7. The favourite guest posters were Jadis 42%,  Tara Te Heke 29%, Peter Gibbons 24%
8. With regard to mining on conservation land 50% said consider on case by case basis, 34% said drill baby drill and 16% said never allow
9. 62% want a 4 year term for Parliament, 28% 3 years, 7% 5 years, and 3% 2 years
10. 72% said Whanganui should be spelt Wanganui
11. 34% change their razor blade less often than monthly, 31% monthly, 18% fortnightly, 16% weekly and 1% more than once a week
12. 59% use Facebook, 21% Twitter, 9% Bebo and 7% My Space (Oct 2009)
13. 47% support MMP, 23%, STV, 20% FPP, 6% SM and 4% PV
14. 81% want competition for ACC
15. 35% wants Police able to take DNA samples from those charged with a serious crime so long as the sample is destroyed if no conviction. 16% support DNA samples taken at birth.
16. 50% named Chris Carter as the biggest trougher, 20% Hone Harawira, 18% Rodney Hide and 12% Bill English
17. 76% wanted the Maori Party to expel Hone Harawira over his MF comments
18. 55% think CIRs should be binding on Parliament
19. 61% think Kevin Rudd will beat Tony Abbott
20. 56% said for Xmas they were holidaying at home, 40% holidaying in NZ and 13% holidaying overseas
21. 51% think Cameron Slater is not guilty
22. 43% want Charles as King, 18% for William to take over, and 39% want a republic
23. 43% think there should be no minimum wage, 18% say it should be $15, 11% more than $15, 9% $12.50, 7% $13.00, 7% $12.75, 5% $14.00
24. The PM’s statement was given an A by 19%, a B by 29%, a C by 23%, a D by 125 and an E by 17%
25. 62% support a lower minimum wage for under 20s
26. 32% want a driving age of 18, 22% 16, 22% 15, 18% 17 and 6% 14
27. 82% hate the proposed Wellywood sign
28. 62% wanted the Govt to remove the ban on mining on Great Barrier Island
29. 65% want retail shops to be able to open on Easter Sunday
30. 84% think Superman would beat the Hulk (they are wrong – Hulk gets stronger as he gets madder)
31. 64% thought David Cameron would become UK PM, 23% Gordon Brown and 13% Nick Clegg
32. 34% think Andrew Little will be the next Labour Leader, 24% David Cunliffe, 18% Shane Jones, 8% Grant Robertson, 8% Trevor Mallard, 6% Maryan Street and 2% Ruth Dyson
33. 42% want the alcohol purchase age to be 18, 40% wants 20, 9% greater than 20 and 9% under 18
34. 58% would vote to retain MMP
35. 31% rated the 2010 Budget very good, 36% good, 14% average, 6% poor and 13% very poor
36. 47% say Andy Haden should be sacked and 53% say he shoudl keep his job

I must do these summaries more often!

Voting is now open in the 2009 Kiwiblog Awards in the following categories:

1. MP of the Year
2. Labour MP of the Year
3. National MP of the Year
4. Minor Party MP of the Year
5. Press Gallery Journalist of the Year
6. Public Servant of the Year

You can vote in all six polls in the left sidebar. Multiple voting will be deleted and exposed.

Yes it is time for the annual Kiwiblog Awards. The categories are:

1. MP of the Year
2. Labour MP of the Year
3. National MP of the Year
4. Minor Party MP of the Year
5. Press Gallery Journalist of the Year
6. Public Servant of the Year

Make your nominations below, and then I’ll announce the finalists and run a poll in each category. These are all positive awards – for the best person in each category.

2008 winners are not eligible to be nominees for 2009. Here are the 2008 and 2007 winners for each category.

1. MP of the Year – Rodney Hide (2008), John Key (2007)
2. Labour MP of the Year – Winston Peters, Phil Goff
3. National MP of the Year – John Key, Bill English
4. Minor Party MP of the Year – Rodney Hide, Heather Roy
5. Press Gallery Journalist of the Year – Audrey Young, Fran O’Sullivan
6. Public Servant of the Year – Owen Glenn, Kevin Brady

We received  around 600 votes in this third unscientific blog poll on how readers perceive the front bench Ministers to be doing. The results are shown below in two ways.

Net Approval Ratings

This is the sum of those who said Very Good or Good less the sum of those who said Poor or Very Poor. The change from May 2009 ago is shown in brackets

1. Judith Collins +51% (+14%)
2. Chris Finlayson +47% (-5%)
3. John Key +43% (-14%)
4. Tony Ryall +43% (-4%)
5. Simon Power +31% (-10%)
6. Bill English +31% (-13%)
7. Gerry Brownlee +12% (+6%)
8. Anne Tolley +3% (-10%)
9. Nick Smith -15% (-7%)

Collins and Brownlee have had their net approval improve from May. All others have dropped. Remember it is not necessarily the same people voting each time – this is not scientific. Nick’s rating I suspect partly reflects his holding of the climate change portfolio.

Overall six of the nine frontbench Ministers continue to have very strong approval ratings from readers.

Weighted Average

The other measure is a weighted average which takes account of if people said they were very good or just good etc. Basically it assigns a value of 100% for a VG, 75% for a G, 50% for an average, 25% for a P and 0% for a VP. The overall weighted averages are:

1. Judith Collins 73% (+7%)
2. Chris Finlayson 68% (-3%)
3. John Key 68% (-8%)
4. Tony Ryall 67% (-3%)
5. Simon Power 61% (-5%)
6. Bill English 60% (-6%)
7. Gerry Brownlee 53% (+3%)
8. Anne Tolley 49% (-4%)
9. Nick Smith 43% (-1%)

Now again these are not scientific, and only reflect the particular preferences of Kiwiblog readers who participated.

I expect to do the fourth blog poll around November 2009.

I’ve just created blog polls for the front bench for the third time. Previous polls were done in March and May/June. Voting is open until Friday midday.

A bug has hit by polls plugin and it no longer allows multiple polls to be shown at once in the sidebar. So I have set it to show one of the nine polls randomly. Each time you reload it should show another one at random so keep an eye on the sidebar as new ones come up, until you have done all nine. No multiple voting in the same poll – I do log IP addresses and can detect this.

Well the latest poll on David Bain set a record – 1,173 votes.

49% of people said they disagreed with the verdict and 46% said they agreed with the verdict. 6% supported the theory that Robin killed the kids, and then David killed Robin.

However the 46% who supported the verdict were divided on why – 24% said David probably did it, but there was reasonable doubt. 13% said they had no idea who did it, and only 9% said Robin did it.

Previous blog poll results, since the last update are:

1. The 2009 budget had 51% rate it good or very good, 33% poor or very poor and 16% neutral.
2. On the possibility of tax cuts going, 37% said they would only be slightly upset as the recession has forced it, 20% said they would be very pissed, 18% totally furious, 17% only reasonably pissed if postponed only and 8% hate tax cuts so glad they were cancelled.
3. 58% approved of Christine Rankin’s appointment and 42% did not
4. 76% disapproved of the appointment of Michael Cullen to the NZ Post Board
5. 47% said National should postpone future tax cuts
6. 60% think possession of cannabis for personal use should be a criminal offence
7. 90% backed the restoration of titular honours
8. 57% supported sinking the Sea Shepherd over the Japanese Whalers
9. Least desired city to be forced to live in was Wanganui at 44%, Palm Nth 32%, Hamilton 16%, New Plymouth 9%
10. 54% have downloaded a TV show not yet available in NZ
11. 76% blamed Hamas for the deaths in Gaza
12. 38% said 2009 will be better than 2008, 28% said it will not be and 34% said it will be only if we get the chance to boot Winston out again.
13. 51% said they would rather go without the Internet for a fortnight and 49% would rather go without sex.
14. 71% supported the use of urgency to pass laws before Xmas.
15. 11% are missing Winston
16. Only 46% think Goff will lead Labour into the 2011 election
17. 75% had a favourable impression of the new Ministry
18. 38% said the best part of election night was a clear National/Act majority, 27% Winston losing, 23% Helen resigning, 11% did not enjoy it and 3% the electorates National won
19. 57% said they were voting National, 26% ACT, 7% Labour, 5% Greens
20. 48% have voted for Labour at a previous election
21. 47% supported extending the retail bank guarantee to wholesale borrowing, 30% did not and 23% said follow the experts.

We received almost 600 votes in this second unscientific blog poll on how readers perceive the front bench Ministers to be doing. The results are shown below in two ways.

Net Approval Ratings

This is the sum of those who said Very Good or Good less the sum of those who said Poor or Very Poor. The change from two months ago is shown in brackets

1. John Key +57% (-10%)
2. Chris Finlayson +52% (-1%)
3. Tony Ryall +47% (+4%)
4. Bill English +44% (-10%)
5. Simon Power +41% (-13%)
6. Judith Collins +37% (-11%)
7. Anne Tolley +13% (-8%)
8. Gerry Brownlee +6% (+4%)
9. Nick Smith -8% (-35%)

Ryall and Brownlee have had their net approval improve from March. Nick Smith has had the most dramatic change in impression.

Weighted Average

The other measure is a weighted average which takes account of if people said they were very good or just good etc. Basically it assigns a value of 100% for a VG, 75% for a G, 50% for an average, 25% for a P and 0% for a VP. The overall weighted averages are:

1. John Key 76% (-4%)
2. Chris Finlayson 71% (nc)
3. Tony Ryall 70% (+4%)
4. Bill English 66% (-4%)
5. Simon Power 66% (-5%)
6. Judith Collins 66% (-4%)
7. Anne Tolley 53% (-4%)
8. Gerry Brownlee 50% (+1%)
9. Nick Smith 44% (-14%)

Now again these are not scientific, and only reflect the particular preferences of Kiwiblog readers who participated.

We received over 500 votes in the unscientific blog poll on how readers perceive the front bench Ministers to be doing. The results are shown below in two ways.

Net Approval Ratings

This is the sum of those who said Very Good or Good less the sum of those who said Poor or Very Poor.

1. John Key +67%
2. Bill English +54%
3. Simon Power +54%
4. Chris Finlayson +53%
5. Judith Collins +46%
6. Tony Ryall +43%
7. Nick Smith +27%
8. Anne Tolley +21%
9. Gerry Brownlee +2%

The problem with being Leader of the House is if you make a stuff up, it is very visible and high profile!

Weighted Average

The other measure is a weighted average which takes account of if people said they were very good or just good etc. Basically it assigns a value of 100% for a VG, 75% for a G, 50% for an average, 25% for a P and 0% for a VP. The overall weighted averages are:

1. John Key 80%
2. Simon Power 71%
3. Chris Finlayson 71%
4. Bill English 70%
5. Judith Collins 70%
6. Tony Ryall 66%
7. Nick Smith 58%
8. Anne Tolley 57%
9. Gerry Brownlee 49%

Now again these are not scientific, and only reflect the particular preferences of Kiwiblog readers who participated. What I will find more interesting is the changes when we redo this in one or two months.

I’ve started what I hope will be a regular feature – a blog poll which allows readers to rate how they think the frontbench Cabinet Ministers are going.

You can vote on the left on all nine front bench Ministers. You don’t have to vote on all of them.

It goes without saying that a blog poll is totally unscientific, and this will be no exception. However that is not to say they may not be of some value.

The idea for them comes from the excellent Conservative Home blog in the UK. They have been running such polls for a couple of years – allowing supporters to rate the Conservative Shadow Cabinet. The latest results are here.

While unscientific, they can produce two useful pieces of info. The first is a general perception (whether correct or not) of which Ministers are rated highly, and not so highly. But also (and more usefully) how their ratings change over time.

Now this will merely be a blog of Kiwiblog readers. And while there are many National supporters here, there are also many ACT/Libz supporters who regard National as commie sellouts and a fair few lefties who still see National as evil capitalists. So if a Minister gets a lowish score, I would not read too much into it.

The idea behind this is not to be judgemental about a particular Minister, but to provide feedback on perceptions of performance that may or may not be useful.

I would ask readers to vote in good faith, and only vote once (polls close Monday midday). Yes I know you can delete cookies or vote from a second computer, but I can usually detect you doing so, and will publish IP addresses of anyone abusively tryng to stack the poll.

At this stage I have done frontbench Ministers only, as I don’t think there is enough info in the public domain for people to be able to rate some of the other Ministers yet. This could change with time.

A poll found 46% of women and 30% of men would rather go without sex for a fortnight, than the Internet.

I’m tempted to observe that for some, going without the Internet would be going without sex

Anyway Kiwiblog is running its own poll on the proposition, so have fun voting in the sidebar.

Voting is now open in the 2008 Kiwiblog Awards. They close at 3 pm Friday 3 October. You can vote in the sidebar.

The most popular nominations in each category are:

MP of the Year

• Rodney Hide – not even a finalist last year but a popular nominee for his campaign to expose Peters, amongst other things
• Bill English – a repeat nominee – his year of picking apart the EFA was often cited
• Pita Sharples – has become the Maori MP, Pakeha love to love, and helped position the Maori Party as Kingmakers.
• Phil Goff – a China FTA plus a possible United States FTA endears Goff to many readers

Labour MP of the Year

• Phil Goff was nominated by many but disqualified as the 2007 winner
• Michael Cullen cited by many for his mastery of the House
• David Cunliffe also impressed several with his determination to improve the Health sector
• Winston Peters was nominated multiple times in this category, so who are we to stand in the way of the public!

National MP of the Year

• Simon Power had the most nominations, having impressed with his constant highlighting of law & order problems, and also superb Chairmanship of the Privileges Committee.
• John Key is still the country’s Preferred PM
• Bill English was disqualified having won this category last year
• Gerry Brownlee also often nominated for his take no prisoners methods in the House

Minor Party MP of the Year

• Rodney Hide a popular nominee for many
• Pita Sharples had 12 nominations in this category – will it be Minister Sharples in a few weeks?
• Sue Bradford has had a quieter year than 2007 when she was runner up, but still gained some nominations
• Hone Harawira also gained multiple nominations – the once reviled radical has been impressing a few people

Press Gallery of the Journalist

• Audrey Young – Winston still has not apologised to her, but she was a favourite nominee amongst Kiwiblog readers
• Duncan Garner – his “straight talking” doesn’t always win friends in Parliament, but has proven popular with some readers
• Guyon Espiner – cool, clam and collected – the most viewed gallery reporter has some fans
• Colin Espiner – the blogging journalist has many online fans

Public Servant of the Year

• Grant Liddell – the SFO Director was a multiple nominee for doing what was right, regardless of what the Government wanted.
• Owen Glenn – okay not technically a public servant, but many nominated him for having performed a public service.
• Helena Catt – the Electoral Commission CEO wins the sympathy and nominations of many for having to try and work out what the Electoral Finance Act actually means, and for her willingness to criticise the law she has to enforce.

Enjoy voting.

I revised the blog poll results this evening, to delete any obvious multiple votes. The changes were:

• National: 192 – 2 = 190
• Labour: 654 – 610 = 44
• Maori Party: 18 – 12 = 6
• ACT: 92 – 15 = 77
• NZ First: 4 – 0 = 4
• United Future: 31 – 3 = 28
• Kiwi Party: 92 – 26 = 66
• Greens: 681- 645 = 36
• Progressive: 3 – 0 = 3
• Libertarianz: 5 – 0 = 5
• Others: 4 – 0 = 4

Remember it is just a fun poll!