Kiwiblog

There are two coups in the air – one in Australia, and one in the United Kingdom. Let us take the UK one first.

As Labour MPs face decimation, Gordon Brown’s position is perilous. He may become the first UK Prime Minister since Neville Chamberlain to never face a general election.

The Telegraph reports:

Gordon Brown is being openly undermined by Cabinet ministers who are now publicly questioning his future as Prime Minister.

The Labour Party has no option but to replace him as leader or face certain defeat at the next general election, said one.

“We cannot go any lower,” the minister said, following Labour’s disastrous defeat in the Glasgow East by-election, one of the biggest upsets in political history.

“We are at rock bottom. The evidence is there for all to see. We are not a one-nation party any more. We are now a no-nation party. We cannot win in Scotland, we cannot win in England, we cannot win in Wales.

“There is only one thing that can be done, and it’s a change of leader.”

Another Cabinet minister added: “It has just moved from possible to probable that Gordon will be toppled.”

Apart from losing one of their safest seats, Labour is 22% behind the Conservatives in the latest polls – this would give them a 236 seat majority.

What will be interesting is who replaces Brown. It may be a poisoned chalice.

The other mounting coup appears to be in the Australian Liberal Party.

Peter Costello served as Deputy Leader and Treasurer to John Howard for over a decade. Howard refused to stand aside for him and when the Libs lost the 2007 election, it looked like Costello’s career was also over.

He did not contest the leadership post-Howard, realising Kevein Rudd could be expected to serve at least two terms, and that he was unlikely to survive to become PM one day. So he did not stand and made noises about retiring.

But things have changed. Brendan Nelson has been a very unimpressive leader, while the ambitious Malcolm Turnbull is mistrusted by many of his colleagues.

But why would Costello be reconsidering just because of that? It si because he thinks he can beat Kevin Rodd at the next election. Now Rudd is still very popular and ahead in the polls, but his focus on stunts is starting to gain negative publicity. But more relevant is the economy. Costelle presided over a decade of economic growth. If the Australian economy is not in good shape in 18 months time, then Costello will be seen as proven economic manager who could win against Rudd.

This is not as certain as Brown being a goner. But Costello is showing all the signs of keeping hos options open:

PETER Costello will map out an ambitious reform agenda in his political memoir – including a pathway to a republic – giving him the platform to launch a bid for the Liberal leadership.

The former treasurer will use his much-anticipated autobiography, to be published in October, to outline a list of priority reforms.

He will also lay out challenges facing Australia in a move to distance himself from John Howard’s “conservative” agenda.

And if things go well there may be a NZ leadership election later this year also!

I couldn’t resist that headline after seeing Phil Goff denying on TV last night that he is plotting against Helen Clark.  The old joke is that no coup is ever official until it is denied!

I stand by my opinion that there will be no move against Clark before the election – for two reasons.  The first is the coup would not succeed – she has the numbers.  The second is it could be a poisoned chalice.  However you may start to see some positioning for post-election manoeuvres.

Post election could see Goff as Leader and Cunliffe as Finance.  Who would be Deputy is harder to pick at this stage.  King is an obvious choice but she may not plan to be around much longer.

John Armstrong writes in the Herald:

Life without Helen Clark? Labour’s abysmal showing in Saturday’s Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll will have the party’s MPs inevitably thinking the unthinkable – but only briefly…

Labour’s big fear is that should the leadership genie get well and truly out of the bottle, it will be impossible to stuff it back in.

It would be a disaster for Labour if Clark’s leadership, which has been seen as an electoral strength, suddenly became a weakness through continued speculation on possible coups and challenges.

There was obvious Beehive nervousness yesterday about the possibility of that happening, with Clark cutting short questions on the subject at her weekly post-Cabinet press conference…

Goff has made no impact on the polls despite being in Parliament for 24 of the past 27 years. The panic button will have to be well and truly pushed before the Labour caucus would opt for him as its potential saviour.

Better from his point of view to take over the leadership after the election than before – presuming he can muster the numbers. Goff knows the score. He was a Cabinet minister before the 1990 election when Mike Moore ousted Sir Geoffrey Palmer just eight weeks before the nation voted.

I think under MMP MPs are less likely to panic also.  Under FPP an MP was toast if they lost their seat, so they would sell their grandmother down the river if it increased their chance of survival. But with MMP over half the Caucus are guaranteed to keep their seats even if the result is as low as 25%, so you don’t have the same self preservation instinct over-riding all reason.