Kiwiblog

In my Herald column I ask whether the HMNZS National will be able to get off the reef. The beginning:

I was asked at a speaking engagement a couple of weeks ago whether the election was a foregone conclusion, as there was such a lead in the polls for National. My response was to quote former United Kingdom Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and say “Events, dear boy, events”. This famous quote was Macmillan’s response to the question of what is most likely to blow a Government off course. And the blowing of the Rena off course onto a reef near Tauranga most definitely is an event.

In my Herald column I note the final sitting day of the 49th Parliament and look forward to the elections for the 50th Parliament, in 50 days time. I make some early predictions as to which parties will and will not be back.

My column at the NZ Herald is titled Will cannabis propel Goff to power? An extract:

Even if Labour gets a worse result than they did in 2008, and even if National gets a better result than they did in 2008, the country may end up with Prime Minister Phil Goff. …

The interesting thing with this scenario is that National/ACT would have secured more votes than the Goff Government. National/ACT could get 49% and Labour/Green/NZ First/Maori/Mana 48% in total. But the over-hang for the Maori seats would deliver power to the parties that got fewer votes. Any protests would be futile, as the MMP referendum would have just concluded, probably confirming MMP.

The column focuses on the dangers for National if it has no coalition partners beyond one MP parties.

My column at the NZ Herald is over the different party’s positions on the police surveillance law.

My David Farrar on Politics column in the Herald is of course on the Rugby World Cup, as it has been the issue of the week.

My column at the NZ Herald is on how the Rugby World Cup may affect the election. An extract:

Now of course it was not the current Government that bid for the Rugby World Cup. The bid was led by Helen Clark around six years ago, and it was her Government that agreed on the timing with the IRB. It is possible that a motivating factor was the thought that if Labour had won a fourth term, then this could help them win an unprecedented fifth term, making Clark the longest serving Prime Minister.

My NZ Herald column is on the politics of asset sales. I look at the risks to the Government, and ask and answer the question about why they are doing it , despite the political risk.

My column at the NZ Herald is about how today is the start of the Taxpayer Relief Regulated Period.

We are now officially within three months of the general election. Today is the start of what the law calls the regulated period. It restricts how much money political parties can spend of their own money on election advertising, but more popularly cuts off taxpayer funded election advertisements from MPs. …

So if from today you see anything from your MP or from a parliamentary party that has the crest of the House of Representatives on it (indicating Parliament has paid for it), and it is advocating either explicitly or implicitly for or against a party or candidate, then you should send a copy of it to the New Zealand Herald who I am sure will happily inquire to the Parliamentary Service whether the taxpayer is due any refunds.

Only 13 weeks to go until E-day!

In my column at the NZ Herald, I talk about the secondary battle – for electorate seats, and review the seats which are expected to be competitive.

In my NZ Herald column I look at the causes of the English riots and make the case for lowering the youth minimum wage to reduce teenage unemployment in NZ from 27%.

In my Herald column, I write on why constitutional reform is important, even if most find it boring. I conclude:

Personally I believe the time has come when we should have a written constitution which has a bill of rights entrenched as supreme law. Our rights to free speech should not be at the whim of politicians.

You can comment at the Herald site, as well as here.

This week’s column at NZ Herald:

I think the time has come where National can do better than be more competent and pleasant managers of Labour’s health, education and welfare systems. The Government is thankfully looking seriously at reforming the welfare system, but the education system for example badly needs a decentralised performance pay system for teachers. Will National be content with national standards (which are entirely laudable), or will they propose more substantive reforms?

I also nominate the Labour MP whom I think could make the most credible advocate of reform.

My column at nzherald.co.nz is on what we have seen of John Key’s weaknesses and strengths in dealing with the Mossad story.

Labour Tax Costs

My column in the NZ Herald focuses on the numbers in Labour’s tax policies. They stuck up masses of data on their site, but the one document they did not stick up was the one above, which shows that it will take seven years for Labour’s tax package to be fiscally neutral. They’d have to win a third term for it to start to bring in more income than they forego. And they also project $300m a year less tax avoidance by waving a wand. In reality an 11c difference between the top personal tax rate and the company tax rate will lead to much greater levels of tax avoidance.

In my Herald column I look at the Mana and Maori parties and conclude that the sensible thing for the Maori Party is to find a way to work with the Mana Party, as united they will be stronger than fighting each other.

My Herald column is on the political impact of the third earthquake on Monday. An extract:

So it is no surprise that the Government is wanting to take the time to get it right, and be able to do the above. But there is a wonderful quote by François-Marie Arouet, better known as Voltaire. He is credited as saying in 1772 “The perfect is the enemy of the good”.

Voltaire was warning that if you keep delaying to get a perfect solution, you may end up not achieving anything at all. That sometimes it is better to go forward with what you have, rather than “improving” it further.

Comments and feedback can be left at the Herald.

My weekly column at the NZ Herald is on the the Darren Hughes saga. I compare the Darren Hughes and Richard Worth affairs in some details. My final sentence was:

There has been much speculation about Darren’s future. At the risk of being accused of trying to polish a turd, maybe Darren should look on what happened as an opportunity. Darren is a smart personable guy who could probably excel in any number of roles. My advice is to get out of New Zealand for at least a couple of years – travel the world, find some interesting jobs to do, visit your mates and then decide down the track whether you still have that burning desire to serve in Parliament.

I wasn’t sure if “polish a turd” would get through the sub-editors

This week’s column in the Herald focuses on what was by far the most significant announcement of the week, but one which received little publicity as Labour was so silent on it.

In talking about the potential welfare reforms, I also focus on Labour’s welfare policy:

In fact Labour’s official policy is to increase the net value of benefits, and pay people more to be on a benefit as their tax policy is to move benefits being calculated net of tax, to gross of tax, meaning they will get $10 more a week for being on the benefit with Labour’s policy to have no tax on the first $5,000 of income.

There has been remarkably little attention paid to the fact that Labour is promising every beneficiary an extra $10 a week for not having a job. This is different to 2008 when Dr Cullen cut the bottom tax rate, but kept benefits calculated on a net basis.

So we will have an interesting choice come the election time – National will be offering welfare reform to reduce the numbers on welfare, and Labour will be offering to pay beneficiaries $10 a week more.

In my weekly nzherald.co.nz column I look at Labour’s lack of discipline when it comes to message:

So in the space of one week, Labour has been talking about stopping borrowing, middle income families, the minimum wage, an R&D tax credit, the Emissions Trading Scheme and asset sales. They seem to be like a drunk farmer with a shotgun – firing everywhere hoping something hits.

The full column, plus comments, is at herald.co.nz.

My column at nzherald.co.nz welcomes Labour’s reported new approach to focus on how to grow the economy more, rather than oppose all spending cuts. An extract:

Even more pleasing Labour have said that they wish to focus on measures to lift New Zealand’s economic game. This is excellent. This is what the debate between the parties should be about – how to increase the size of the cake, rather than how to slice the cake up.

It was quite tough doing four seperate columns on the Budget, as each had to be quite different to the other. One was for Kiwiblog and one for Stuff.co.nz. Plus a print column for Dominion Post and a column today for nzherald.co.nz.