Kiwiblog

This Gallup poll on party favourability has the Democrats at a all time low in for the 17 years they have been polling this question.

The biggest change has been amongst Independent voters. Their favourability rating has dropped from 47% in July to 30% today.

Mid terms are getting closer.

This is unusual – Gallup has the Republicans in the lead in their generic congressional ballot. For the first time, more people say Republican 48% to Democrat 44%.

Why? The Independents. They are now splitting 52% Republican to 30% Democrat. This is what happens when you veer towards your base, and not the centre.

This graph shows the movement amongst Independents in the last five months.

Now it is a year to go until the elections, and lots can happen. But this poll is unusual, as Gallup explains:

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Significantly more people do identify as Democrats. So again this makes a lead in the generic congressional ballot quite significant.

Of course too early to start saying how many seats may be lost, as it will depend on regional trends.

A very nice event at the Embassy, watching the speech on the big screen. Obama does look almost flawless when he speaks and has a style which is graceful, if that is the word.

It was interesting he hit McCain quite hard and it was more substance than the rhetoric of previous speeches. He pledged to end oil imports within 10 years, which personally I think is impossible.

Jon Johansson spoke after the speech and gave what I thought was a good critique of it – he had been critical of some of the earlier speeches but said this was Obama’s best compared to the primary speeches. Johansson also said Bill Clinton’s speech last night was very powerful – again I agree.

The video they showed before hand on Obama’s life was pretty powerful also – told a carefully scripted and appealing story (and Margaret Clark I think pointed out very focused on appealing to working class Americans).

I’m off to the United States Embassy to watch Barack Obama’s acceptance speech. It is going to be an incredible moment, regardless of the fact I don’t like his policies. It is a milestone for the United States to have an African-American candidate for President, when just one generation ago they had segregation.

So offline most of the afternoon, but any breaking news I can blog from my blackberry. I’ve been doing that a lot this week.

I’m at the Embassy next week also for McCain’s speech. He should be announcing his Vice-Presidental candidate over the weekend, which will be fascinating. The choice of Biden doesn’t seem to have changed the polls much. I am picking a big spike after the speech today.

Oh one has to give Bill Clinton full marks in his careful use of language, where he declared Barack Obama the best man for the job of President of the United States. That is, well, just so Clintonian! Both can’t fault either of their speeches.

Barack Obama has chosen Senator Joe Biden as his Vice-Presidential candidate.

Biden is 65 years old and one of the more experiences Senators – especially in foreign policy. He sought the Democratic nomination 20 years ago in 1988 and was briefly a candidate this time also.

He entered the Senate when I was five years old – in 1973, so has served 36 years there. His age when elected, 30, is the constitutional minimum to be a Senator.

Unlike Obama (who was not in the Senate then), Biden voted in favour of the resolution authorising war in Iraq in 2002.

His 1988 presidental campaign was derailed by plagiarism scandals.

Often VP choices are made to balance the ticket – make it more electable. The Biden choice is of course also about electability, but more about negating fears of Obama’s inexperience that appealing to a specific demographic. It seems a pretty solid choice. The only downside is he undermines Obama’s brand as being about change, but I doubt it will seriously impact that.

Some interesting stats at Real Clear Politics in terms of the popular vote for the Democratic nomination.

With all primaries over, Obama leads Clinton by just 0.1% in the popular vote. That is 34,000 out of 35 million cast. This excludes Michigan where Obama was not on the ballot.

If you add on estimates for four Caucuses, his lead stretches to 0.4%.

However if you add Michigan in, Clinton leads by 0.8% or 0.5% including the caucuses.

This is a bit unfair though as Obama was not on the ballot paper. However 45% voted uncommitted and if one assigns them to Obama (which is the fairest thing to do), what is the result?

It is Clinton ahead by 0.1%. However add in estimates for the four caucuses and it is Obama by 0.2%.

So it is a bit like Florida in 2000. Both sides can claim to have won the popular vote depending on how you count it. In three scenarios Obama wins, and in three Clinton wins.

I tend to think the final result I have listed – the one with Obama ahead by 0.2% is probably the most appropriate as it includes all primaries and caucuses.

Obama has picked up some more super delegates and looks to have 1,970 delegates – just 56 short of the 2,026 needed.

86 delegates are still to go, so if he gets half that is just 13 short. It really should finally end on the 3rd of June (4th in NZ).

In Montana a poll out last week has Obama ahead by 17% so he should pick up over half the 16 delegates – maybe 10 to 6.

South Dakota had a early April poll with Obama ahead by 12%. Delegate split of their 15 may be 8 to 7 in his favour.

In Puerto Rico, Clinton led by 13% in the last poll (5 April) and should win that one. Delegates may split 30 to 25 for her (55 in total).

It seems Hillary Clinton has a new plan for winning the nomination. Just keep the race going as long as possible, and wait for Obama to be assassinated as Robert Kennedy was!

Well how else does one interpret her remarks:

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don’t understand it,” she said, dismissing calls to drop out

So the race isn’t over until the first shit shot is fired!

UPDATE: And maybe her Plan B ties into Bill pushing her to be the VP candidate for Obama. Wait long enough and she might still get to be the first female President!

According to Real Clear Politics, Obama now has 1,957 delegates – just 68 short of the magic 2,025. Obama picked up 42 from Oregon and Kentucky to 53 for Clinton.

86 delegates remain from two states and a territory. Clinton will probably pick up more than Obama due to Puerto Rico, but assume 50/50 then that puts Obama to exactly 2,000.

So he needs 25 more super delegates after that.  There are 209 yet to pledge so that should not be an issue. His campaign team will deserve to be sacked if on the day of the last primary (3 June) he can not announce two dozen super delegates. And finally it will be over.

Most media organisations are now reporting that Obama now has a lead amongst super-delegates as well as pledged delegates. There is no official site for super delegate counting but I use Real Clear Politics who has it Obama 275 to Clinton 271.

Clinton will probably stay in the race until the last primary, just so every vote counts but her money will now be dried up. Her only hope has been that her attacks on Obama would make him unelectable, and that super delegates would decide it for her. But now he can almost ignore her as he takes aim at McCain.

It is premature to post on the historic nature of Obama’s achievement, until it is official, but it is truly historic.

If Obama picks up half the delegates in the six primaries to go, he will add on 109 to his 1,866 to be at 1,975 – just 50 short of the 2025 he need. I suspect he will have those or get those by the 3rd of June.

Obama has easily won North Carolina (as predicted) by 56% to 42%.  Indiana went for Clinton but only by 51% to 49%.

Clinton’s failure to win bigger in Indiana is increasing the pressure on her to pull out. But it is likely that the contest will go on for at least another month.

In North Carolina the exit poll has a huge differential by race.

White Democrats backed Clinton 62% to 37% and white Independents were 58% to 38%.  Obama however got 92% of Black Democrats.

The Indiana exit poll is also extreme. Of concern must be the fact that only 71% say they will vote for Obama if he is the candidate against McCain.

White Democrats in Indiana went 64% to 36% for Clinton.  Black Democrats were 91% for Obama.

Obama also won the “very liberal” vote by 62% to 38%. They only make up 14% of primary voters.

The table above shows the 51 states (including DC) which get to vote in the November US election, and who has won each state in the Democratic Primary, and by how much. It is sorted by most to least electoral college votes.

Of the ten biggest states (comprising 256 of the 538 electors) Clinton has won eight, and Obama just two (one his own).

Obama is still highly highly likely to be the Democratic nominee. But his inability to win in the larger states does mean those lingering doubts about him grow. And Clinton is not going anywhere as Maureen Dowd points out:

Now that Hillary has won Pennsylvania, it will take a village to help Obama escape from the suffocating embrace of his rival. Certainly Howard Dean will be of no use steering her to the exit. It’s like Micronesia telling Russia to denuke.

Heh. Indeed.

Meanwhile Clinton is going more hawkish than the hawks. Look at this:

Clinton further displayed tough talk in an interview airing on “Good Morning America” Tuesday. ABC News’ Chris Cuomo asked Clinton what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

“I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” Clinton said. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”

Hey if MCain wins, maybe she can be Secretary of Defence

This is a great read for fans of the great West Wing TV series.

The New  York Magazine has got one of the former West Wing writers to produce a script for what may happen if the Democrats do not get a result before their convention, and it is a brokered convention (as it was on the West Wing).

It’s a hilarious script, taking the piss out of Clinton, Obama and especially the ever lurking Al Gore.

Obama has picked up Vermont (as expected) and is ahead in Texas 54% to 45% with one million votes counted. The exit poll had then almost neck and neck and early returns are not always representative so Obama should hold off the champagne for a bit longer.

UPDATE: 1.3 million votes (14% of precincts) and narrowed to Obama 50%, Clinton 48%. Clinton well ahead in Ohio on 35% of precincts in.

UPDATE2: CNN has called Ohio For Clinton (she has 57% currently) and in Texas she is now ahead by 20,000 votes on 1.5 million votes counted.

UPDATE3: I don’t see Clinton conceding.  Her victory in Ohio is substantial 56% to 42%. And she is now 60,000 votes ahead in Texas with 58% of precincts in. Even if Obama gets more delegates (and there is a legal shit fight brewing over the Texas Caucuses) there is a feeling that just having a lead in the pledged delgates may not be enough to claim a moral victory and get the super delegates falling in behind you. The number of actual votes received seems to be getting more and more support (but not a consensus) as perhaps the best indicator of “moral victory”. But then you have issues like do you include Florida or even allow Florida to vote again?