Maori Party Leadership

September 11th, 2009 at 6:56 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia is set to reverse her decision to retire at the next election and instead stay on to advance her political agenda.

Mrs Turia confirmed yesterday that she was “seriously reconsidering” her decision and discussing it with her family.

She announced her retirement at the last election, saying she would step down at the end of this term.

This is not totally surprising, nor unwelcome. As the Herald notes:

The Herald understands Mrs Turia’s goal is to see her whanau ora policy embedded.

Whanau ora would bring together funding from various Government departments – health, education, justice, housing, social welfare – and funnel it directly to families in need of state assistance, rather than separately through different bureaucracies.

Mrs Turia is raising her 8-year-old grandchild, so the pressure of working in Parliament is a consideration.

If she stays on, it will resolve the Maori Party’s leadership dilemma, with no clear successor in its ranks.

The lack of a clear successor is a real issue for the Maori Party.

By 2014, one would expect both Sharples and Turia to retire. Turia will be 70 and Sharples 73.

The three other Maori Party MPs are all good constituent MPs, but neither Flavell or Katene (at this stage) have a national profile. Hone Harawira does, but I imagine he would agree leadership would be too stifling to him.

So how does the Maori Party get into Parliament, a couple of MPs who can take over in 2014? They are most unlikely to get any List MPs in 2011. And I don’t expect any retirements from the three other constituency MPs.

Hence they need to get their future leaders to either enter in 2011 by winning one or both of the two Maori seats they do not hold. If Derek Fox finally won Ikaroa-Rawhiti, he would be a logical contender. Mind you he will be 64 in 2011 and 67 in 2014.

The other option is that you look for the future leaders to replace Turia and Sharples in their own seats. This means however they go straight into the leadership as new MPs, which could be challenging.

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Maori Seats debate at Te Papa

February 3rd, 2009 at 6:42 pm by David Farrar

Florence from Te Papa has commented on the constitutional issues thread:

Since the Maori seats are part of the listed constitutional issues, I thought you might be interested by this event we’re organising at Te Papa: on Thursday 5 February, 6.30-8pm, we’re having a debate between Professor Philip Joseph and Derek Fox about the future of Maori seats in Parliament.

This will be webcast live from Te Papa’s website, so anybody can watch it. We’ll also allow people to ask their questions through our blog, by email or via a live chat.

So join us on Thursday, we really want to hear from anybody who’s interested in this subject.
http://www.tepapa.govt.nz/treatydebates

That’s great it is online, and allows online questions and feedback. Plus you can attend in person for free. I plan to listen online.

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The Maori Seats

November 17th, 2008 at 12:32 pm by David Farrar

Labour won the party vote easily in all seven Maori seats. Their party vote ranged from 45% to 57%, and the Maori Party ranged from 21% to 34%. Waiariki was closest with an 11% gap and Ikaroa-Rawhiti had a 31% gap.

In 2005 Labour ranged from 49% to 58% and Maori Party from 18% to 31% so not much change on the party vote.

National in 2005 got from 2.7% to 7.4% in the Maori seats. In 2008 it was from 5.5% to 10.9% so a very small improvement there.

The electorate votes we start from Te Taik Tokerau in the North. Hone Harawira won it by 3,600 in 2005 over Dover Samuels. This time he has a 5,500 majority.

Pita Sharples evicted John Tamihere from Tamaki Makaurau by 2,100 in 2005 and holds it over Louisa Wall by a massve 6,300.

In Waiariki, Te Ururoa Flavell won by 2,900 in 2005. In 2008 he doubles that to 6,000.

Nanaia Mahuta held onto Tainui by 1,860. The boundary changes to Hauraki-Waikato did not favour her, so she did well to hold on by 1,046.

In Te Tai Hauauru, Tariana Turia won by 5,000 in 2005 and this time he rmajority is almost 7,000.

The big battle was in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Parekura held off Atareta Poananga by 1,932 in 2005, and Poananga’s former partner, Derek Fox, challenged in 2008. But Fox fell short by 1,609.

Finally in the South, Te Tai Tonga was held by Mahara Okeroa in 2005 by 2,500. New Maori Party candidate Rahui Katene beat him by 684 votes in 2008.

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Electorate Polls

November 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged over on curiablog the results fo several recent electorate polls, including tonight’s one in Tauranga. The topline results are:

  • Tauranga – Bridges 26% ahead of Peters. Labour’s Pankhurst in 4th place at 5%. NZ First Party Vote down from 13% in 2005 to 6%.
  • Palmerston North – National candidate Malcolm Plimmer ahead by 3%
  • Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Parekura Horomia 5.4% ahead of Derek Fox
  • Nelson – Nick Smith 36% ahead of Maryan Street
  • West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor 3.5% ahead of Chris Auchinvole
  • Te Tai Tonga – Maori TV/TNS has Mahara Okeroa ahead of Rahui Katene by 10% – 49% to 39%. However Marae Digipoll has Okeroa bejind by 6% – 40% to 46%
  • Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta ahead of Angeline Greensill by 0.6%

All three Maori seats held by Labour are highly competitive. In two seats Labour is ahead and in the seat with conflcitign results, an averaging of them out would see Labour ahead. This means that the Maori Party may not have much of an overhang at all – in fact they could even gain a List MP if they got 4% or so party vote.

Palmerston North is the only Labour held seat that a public poll has shown National ahead in, so far. Due to boundary changes Taupo and Rotorua are technically National’s on paper.

Based on boundary changes and public polls (and note this is not a personal prediction) the electorate seats would be:

  1. National 35
  2. Labour 28
  3. Maori 4
  4. ACT 1
  5. United Future 1
  6. Progressive 1

Labour will in one sense be very pleased to be ahead in all three Maori seats. However this does lessen their chances of winning via overhang.

And the Tauranga result is superb. With only 5% voting Labour on the electorate vote anyway, it means no amount of tactical voting in Tauranga can put Winston back in that way.

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Atareta endorses Derek the Fox

November 1st, 2008 at 6:07 am by David Farrar

Derek Fox’s former partner and opponent for the Maori Party nomination, Atareta Poananga, has buried the hatchet and endorsed Derek to her whanau and supporters.

I’m not sure what is more scary – having Atareta fighting against you, or having her supporting you :-)

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Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate tonight on TVNZ7

October 16th, 2008 at 5:31 pm by David Farrar

I’m up in Gisborne for the Ikaroa-Rawhiti televised debate between Parekura Horomia and Derek Fox tonight.

It is a highly symbolic debate. If the Maori Party can win additional seats they are very likely to hold the balance of power.

The debate start at 9.30 pm tonight and if you don’t have Freeview can watch it online. It will also be on TVNZondemand after it finishes.

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Backbenches tonight

October 8th, 2008 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Tonight at 9 pm live at the Backbencher or on TVNZ7.

  • Kevin Hague, Greens
  • Hamish McDouall, Labour
  • Nikki Kaye, National
  • Derek Fox, Maori
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Business NZ Conference Part III

September 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 am by David Farrar

Three minor “leaders”

  1. Rodney Hide, ACT
  2. Russel Norman, Greens
  3. Derek Fox, Maori Party

Russel Norman

Environment movement needs to move beyond treating humans as a virus infecting the planet. Not about just doing less bad, but more good. Business sector is key part of this.

Need to transition to a sustainable economy. I then drifted off as various enviromental and resources issues were outlined. I do find the Q&A sessions much more useful than just plenary speeches.

Rodney Hide

Talked of Sir Roger’s goal to beat Australia by 2020 – and not just in the rugby or the netball. Says he loved it. Much more inspiring than some OECD average.

Said that he wanted Sir Roger around cabinet table as if he could convince a Labour Cabinet the merits of free market policies, sh should be able to do the same with a National Cabinet :-)

Repeated Douglas on holding govt spending to inflation and population will allow a personal and company tax rate of 20%.

Derek Fox

I’ve got bored with the leaders and am working on some further Winston stuff, so no summary of Derek. Generally not a useful content compared to the Q&A which I thought worked very well.

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Eye to Eye on Maori Party

August 31st, 2008 at 11:39 am by David Farrar

An interesting collection in the studio. John Tamihere hosting with Matthew Hooton, Hekia Parata, Derek Fox and Chris Trotter.

Hooton pointed out that National has said it will offer the Maori Party a role, even if they don’t need them to govern. So up to the Maori Party if they want to play ball.

Derek Fox says up to National and Labour to decide what they will do, and they will decide after the election.

Chris Trotter says he used to think National and the Maori Party agreeing to work together in coalition or on confidence and supply as preposterous, but now it is more likely than the Maori Party supporting Labour!!!

Trotter also points out Maori Party will get National to drop Maori seats abolition policy as price of a deal.

Tamihere said Turia favours National, Sharples favours Labour, Flavell is all over the place and Harawira favours a more neutral cross-benches position. Not sure he would know, but an interesting analysis. Derek Fox has just said his analysis is completely at odds with the meetings he has been sitting in. Fox also says he is not conservative and rejects old labels like that.

I am enjoying Tamihere calling Trotter “Trotsky” and telling Matthew “Shut up Hootie” – something Kathryn Ryan probably wishes she could say occassionally :-)

They then turned to Winston and Matthew has a superb quote:

He may use all this publicity to target the mad elderly Pakeha racist vote and get up to 5%

And this is Helen’s coalition partner he is describing!

Hooton points out that Maori Party would be one of many parties if a Labour-led Government is formed but with National could form a majority just with them probably.

Trotter says he thinks Labour does not want to deal with the Maori Party in his view, which is why they need Winston.  If Winston is not there, National can form a stable Government with 46% of the vote.

So Labour is choosing Winston over the Maori Party!

Fox advocates merit of staying on cross-benches to avoid the fate of most minor parties in Government.

An amusing mistake by Hekia Parata as she said John Key had ruled out United Future when she meant NZ First. They joked Peter Dunne had already started slitting his wrists! Parata was very good on the show, and demonstrated why she will probably be a Minister during her first term in Parliament.

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Maori Party angry at Labour

July 10th, 2008 at 7:52 pm by David Farrar

TV3 reported tonight how angry the Maori Party was at Labour, for their role in publicising the allegations against Derek Fox. It seems a staffer for Shane Jones was circulating copies of the article in Truth to journalists before it was even published. That strongly suggests they were working with the newspaper to get the story out there.

Labour are desperate to have Parekura Horomia retain his seat, but they may win the battle but lose the war. Tariana Turia was making it pretty clear that they would find it very hard to work with Labour after the election, because of this. To quote TV3:

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia says Labour has all but blown its chances of a coalition deal at the next election.

So with NZ First and United Future saying they will give first preference to the biggest party, and not even the Greens yet willing to commit to Labour that means their only friend right now is the Jim Anderton Party.

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Derek Fox

July 10th, 2008 at 8:51 am by David Farrar

The NZ Herald reports on Maori Party candidate Derek Fox and what appears to be a violent incident in his past:

Maori Party candidate Derek Fox has alluded to a violent incident against a woman in his past, but says he is a reformed man.

The reference was made in a statement to the Truth newspaper which has a story this week suggesting violence in his past.

“I have done some things in the past that I now regret,” said Mr Fox.

“I surrendered myself to the authorities, I sought help to address those issues, and I believe I am a very different person now.

“I have made my peace. I have fronted up, and I take responsibility for my unacceptable behaviour.

“All this happened a long time ago and I have spent my life since then trying to do good and to contribute positively to our society.”

The Herald understands he is alluding to a historic case that may be subject to court orders.

Sounds pretty messy. But very interesting to note this comment:

It is understood the Labour Party has been planning to make allegations against Mr Fox in the House under parliamentary privilege.

Now Labour appointed Derek Fox to be Chair of Maori TV. Did they know of this alleged historical violence when they appointed him and only when he then stands against Parekura chose to release it?

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Fox to be Maori Party Candidate

March 9th, 2008 at 3:11 pm by David Farrar

Yesterday’s Herald stated Derek the Fox has been chosen as the Maori Party candidate for Ikaroa-Rawhiti.

Labour are going to have to work very hard to retain more than one of the seven Maori seats.

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