Kiwiblog

Dunedin remains happily red. Labour beats National in the party vote by 16% in Dunedin North and 12% in Dunedin South. This is a lot better than 2005 though when the margins were 29% and 28% respectively.

Pete Hodgson had his 7,900 majority drop to 6,700, which won’t lose him sleep. David Benson-Pope had a 10,100 majority and new gal Clare Curran traded that for a still healthy 6,000.

In Clutha-Southland National gets 60% party vote to 30% for Labour. Bill English trades up his 11,500 majority for a 14,300 one.

Finally in Invercargill, National wins the party vote by 10%, after losing it by 1% in 2005. And Eric Roy’s 4,000 majority is turbo charged into a 6,100 one.

That’s the end of the series. All graphics taken from the NZ Herald. When final results come in, I’ll provide a lot more data.

Oh what a pity. David Benson-Pope is not standing. I just lost a few dollars in iPredict, but luckily still up overall.

DBP is still not happy though:

“I acknowledge the widely-held view that the candidate selection was not in the best interest of the electorate and that little regard has been given to the very high level of voter support that I have received in five terms as a [city] councillor and three terms as the parliamentary representative of this electorate,” he said.

“In the end, however, I cannot respond to the disloyalty of a few by allowing any personal sense of betrayal to stand in the way of my political philosophy.”

He goes on to urge party vote Labour but stays silent on the electorate vote!

I wonder how many boards he will be appointed to, if Labour wins the election? If Di Yates can get four, then Benson-Pope should be up for half a dozen or so.

Hat Tip: Home Paddock

I’ve been leaked an exclusive copy of the campaign billboard for David Benson-Pope for Dunedin South.

He does have a point. Helen has let Winston away with lies to the media, lies to her, lies to the public, lies to the Privileges Committee and he is still there with all his baubles. While DBP got chopped down for far far less – not only losing his Ministerial baubles but also deselected.

Once upon a time I would have said Benson-Pope would have no chance ofkeeping his seat as an Independent. But I am hearing there is real anger at ths disparity of treatment between Peters and Benson-Pope. It will be interesting to see how many activists stay with Curran and how many leave with Benson-Pope – if he stands.

Spies in Dunedin tell me that David Benson-Pope has been hard to work campaigning, and handing out flyers urging people to give their party vote for Labour.

As he is not on the Labour list and is not a Labour candidate, that is very generous of him.

Anyone want to bet that he will not be standing?

The ODT reports that Benson-Pope may win Dunedin South:

The Otago Daily Times understands private polling being undertaken in the electorate shows Mr Benson-Pope would win in a canter should he decide to stand.

Now this may just be spin, or the ODT may have seen polling from a reliable company. Time will tell.

So what happens if David Benson-Pope wins. It depends on whether he stands for a registered political party or not. It is safe to assume he will not. He will stand as an Independent or for an unregistered party (such as Independent Labour).

This means we need to look at s191(8) of the Electoral Act 1993.

If any person whose name is endorsed on the writ pursuant to section 185 as a person declared to be elected as a member of Parliament, is an independent … the Chief Electoral Officer shall, for the purposes of applying subsection (7), deduct from the number of 120 the number of any such persons.

So there is no overhang. What it means is that the party which would have gained the 120th place in Parliament will lose that spot to Benson-Pope. There is roughly a 50/50 chance it would be National or Labour.

So Benson-Pope winning could end up giving the centre-left one extra seat at the expense of the centre-right. Or it could have no effect, with Benson-Pope just replacing a Labour MP.

Incidentally Claire Curran is No 45 on the Labour list, and will only come in Labour get more votes than in 2005. So Curran will miss out, if Benson-Pope do win.

I am no fan of David Benson-Pope, but to be fair to him he does have a legitimate reason to be aggrieved. Clark sacked Benson-Pope for telling just one lie, while Clark refuses to take any action against Winston despite Winston’s multiple lies.

Hat Tip: Homepaddock

The ODT talks to David Benson-Pope:

Asked yesterday whether he had decided about his future in politics, Mr Benson-Pope said it was not surprising his name was not on the list as he had not sought to be ranked there.

“I have no other comment to make other than to urge people to vote Labour with their party vote.”

There could be some indication of his future on September 9, 10 or 11.

On those days, retiring MPs will give their valedictory speeches in Parliament.

Now that sounds like a man planning to contest the electorate vote.

Benson-Pope will have a problem though. If he stands as an Independent It will be illegal for him to advocate in writing for people to party vote Labour, unless he has the permission of Labour’s Mike Smith to do so!

National’s Conway Powell will be hoping Benson-Pope stands!

UPDATE: Benson-Pope has removed all Labour Party colours and logos from his office according to Home Paddock.

The battle for Dunedin South gets more bitter, reports the ODT:

The bitter battle between two factions of Labour Party supporters in Dunedin South worsened this week with the resignation of a branch official as allegations of mismanagement came to light.

Julie Morton, a supporter of Dunedin South MP David Benson-Pope, resigned on Wednesday as secretary-treasurer of the South Dunedin branch….

The issues of concern raised by the current office-holders were in relation to the previous executive’s operations, including the transparency with correspondence, financial reporting and other concerns with respect to constitutional decision-making and destruction of electronic data. …

The Otago Daily Times has learned that in March this year, Mr Benson-Pope wrote to the incoming branch chairman Richard Page.

His letter questioned a $10,000 donation which was included in the 2006 financial accounts.

Records show the donation was made to the Montecillo Veterans Home and Hospital.

You know you have problems when the local MP is writing letters like that to branch committees. And I must say I am surprised any branch of a party would donate money to any cause apart from the party or the candidate.

At the April meeting, Mr Benson-Pope asked for a report clarifying who made the decision and when it was reported to, or discussed with, the branch.

However, the auditor had noted in his report on the 2006 accounts, some 11 months later, that there was no authorisation in any minutes made available to him.

“The hard drive of the branch computer was formatted prior to the recent handover, so the actual date of the creation of that document was impossible to assess,”
Mr Rackley said.

Destroyed documents etc. All very murky.

Does Benson-Pope sound like someone planning to fade quietly from the scene?

TV3 showed last night David Benson-Pope again refused to rule out standing as an independent against Clare Curran in the upcoming election.

His problem is the moment he confirms he is going to do so, then Labour will automatically have to expel him. So it is not in his interest to do so, and it is not in Labour’s interest either.

Labour is already struggling to pass legislation. Steve Maharey is doing two jobs of MP and Vice-Chancellor because they need his vote in the House. He could have resigned by now without automatically triggering a by-election.

Now Labour could take action against Benson-Pope just for refusing to rule it out. But they need his vote, so they are going to pretend that they haven’t noticed his refusal to rule out standing against Curran.

The ODT also reports on Helen Clark’s words on the situation:

She had continued to involve Mr Benson-Pope in what the Government and Labour Party were doing and still “personally regarded him as a friend”.

However, during the interview, Miss Clark failed to mention Mr Benson-Pope by name.

The nameless one!

An ODT story on the NZ Herald site says that David Benson-Pope may stand as an Independent for Dunedin South, campaigning for people to give Labour the party vote and him the electorate vote. It seems the electorate is very unhappy with what has happened:

The Otago Daily Times understands the MP has been telling people in the electorate that under MMP, they had a choice of voting for Labour with their party vote but that they could vote for any candidate.

Inquiries by the newspaper found a high level of discontent in parts of the electorate, particularly centred on the South Dunedin branch, which has the money and the people to mount a campaign in support of Mr Benson-Pope.

A women’s branch has disaffiliated itself from Dunedin South and is considering its options, which include affiliating to the Dunedin North electorate or the party’s Otago regional council.

The South Dunedin branch is now controlled by Benson-Pope supporters, although Labour electorate committee chairman Richard Good said yesterday the public comment from the branch was “nothing but 100 per cent’ behind Ms Curran.

That is a fascinating comment – how the “public comment” was 100% behind Claire Curran. One has to ask then what is the private comment?

Benson-Pope winning the seat could be beneficial to Labour as he would vote with them, and him winning the seat might gave them an extra List MP.