Will NZs boom be affected by the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership?

March 28th, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Sir Michael Leigh blogs at the German Marshall Fund:

New Zealand is enjoying an export-led boom. At 3.1 percent, it boasts the highest GDP growth rate of any developed country. Reconstruction after the devastating 2012 Christchurch earthquake has provided an additional boost. Prime Minister John Key of the National Party is expected to win a third term of office in September, an achievement paralleled only by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the period following the global financial crisis.

National is at 79% on iPredict to still be in Government after the election. This is exceptionally high. In 2011, I don’t think they were ever above 61%.

Much of New Zealand’s growth is fueled by trade with China, which has displaced Australia as the country’s largest export market. New Zealand’s exports to China rose by a spectacular 45 percent in 2013. Milk powder and other dairy products were by far the largest export items but meat and forest products also made major inroads into the Chinese market. Four factors explain the phenomenal growth figures: the implementation of the 2008 free trade agreement between China and New Zealand, Beijing’s first such agreement with an OECD country; rising demand for quality food products from China’s growing middle class, which is set to double within a decade; the high quality and competitive pricing of New Zealand’s agricultural products; and the proactive export strategy of Fonterra, the dairy giant owned by 13,000 New Zealand dairy farmers.

The FTA was Labour’s greatest gift to NZ. It’s appalling that Greens and NZ First opposed it. But one has to also credit Fonterra for their export strategy. An FTA provided an opportunity only.

Observers here worry about the country drifting into a dairy-fuelled version of the Dutch disease, with insufficient economic diversification, inflation, and a property bubble. To counter this, New Zealand’s agricultural production is moving up the value scale. The country’s eight universities are teaming up with industry to foster innovation. New Zealand increasingly exports know-how, technology, and services, linked to investment projects. Still, agriculture remains the mainstay of the economy.

It is not a choice of high tech or agriculture. We need to do both.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), now being negotiated by the United States and the European Union, excites curiosity and concern. New Zealanders share Europe’s apprehensions about its possible implications for food security and about the need to maintain high health, safety, and environmental standards. They are also concerned about the bilateral nature of the agreement and the apparent absence of provisions for accession by third parties.

New Zealand is one of only six WTO members that do not have current or expected preferential trade deals with the EU. The abolition of transatlantic tariffs on food exports could put New Zealand at a further competitive disadvantage. There are high tariff peaks for dairy and meat products in the EU and United States which would still apply to New Zealand exports.

This is why the best outcome would be to conclude the Doha round and have a multilateral agreement to reduce tariffs. Without that we run the risk of bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements disadvantaging New Zealand in a relative sense.

More fundamentally, New Zealanders recognize TTIP’s potential for strengthening the rules-based international trading system, in which they have a strong interest. After the failure of the Doha Development Agenda, there may never again be another comprehensive round of global trade liberalization, despite the modest breakthrough in Bali last year. New Zealand would then have to rely on bilateral agreements such as its FTA with China, or the agreement under negotiation with Russia.

It is hard to see the Doha round ever being completed.

Kiwis are under no illusion concerning these countries’ commitments to intellectual property protection, health and safety standards, or judicial independence. New Zealand suspended trade negotiations with Vladimir Putin’s cherished Customs Union after Russia’s forceful annexation of Crimea. This and tensions in the South China Sea are reminders that Moscow and Beijing may not always be reliable partners. TPP and TTIP would effectively set global standards which could be adopted by countries around the world and codified by the WTO.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described TTIP as the economic equivalent of NATO. For all their geographic isolation and growing economic integration with Australia, Asia, and the Pacific, New Zealanders feel they belong to the West and would broadly welcome TTIP as reinforcing values they share with Europe and the United States.

I’ve not paid too much attention to TTIP (as opposed to TPP), but maybe it could be the base for a NZ-EU agreement of our own one day?

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A NZ-EU free trade pact?

March 26th, 2014 at 6:10 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

New Zealand and the European Union are to pursue a free trade pact – but don’t expect any action until at least 2015.

Prime Minister John Key made the announcement in The Hague after meeting European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council president Herman Van Rompuy. He described it as “quite an important” meeting

Two-way trade between New Zealand and the 28 members of the EU totals $16 billion a year.

Key said the EU has, for the first time, agreed to consider a free trade agreement.

But he admitted an ambitious EU-US trade deal, as well as a pact with Canada, will take priority for the Europeans. 

The EU is highly protectionist so a free trade pact would be a very good thing.

However as indicated, not likely to happen anytime soon. However an agreement for one to be considered is a worthwhile start.

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EU myth busting

June 30th, 2013 at 10:42 am by David Farrar

The EU has set up a myth busting page, which is a very good idea. While I think the EU has some fundamental flaws (lack of democracy, involved in two many areas) it is fair to say they get blamed for some stuff unfairly. So far they have blogged:

  •  EU laws do not prevent churches from taking steps to deal with bat infestations
  • The EU does not “blacklist” beaches: EU laws do not prevent anyone from swimming anywhere, but who wants to swim in poo?
  • Lack of UK action not EU rules responsible for UK Jam manufacturer being in a sticky situation
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European views on Europe

May 16th, 2013 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

2013-EU-12

 

This table is from Stats Chat.

So every country thinks Germans are the most trustworthy, except the Greece who think they are!

For least trustworthy, the British choose the French (fair enough), three countries choose Greece, Italy chooses itself (which is hilarious but perceptive) and Greece and Poland choose Germany. Maybe due to invasions but how do Poles say Germany is both most and least?

France and Germany are the only two countries chosen for most arrogant (also fair enough) while interestingly citizens of each country choose themselves as most compassionate – which suggest we see compassion locally.

 

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The Euro killing Europe?

March 27th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Daniel Altman at Foreign Policy writes:

In 1999, the traditionally hard currencies of Europe’s north merged with the softer currencies of the south to form a new money that was somehow supposed to be stronger than any of the ones it replaced. Under the stewardship of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, the euro was meant to — and did — become a reserve currency to rival the dollar. Though the supposedly prudent northern countries didn’t always keep their budget deficits under control, they still managed to survive the worst of the global economic downturn. By contrast, the profligacy of the south, together with its flawed banking systems, has created a hotbed of crises that stretch 2,300 miles from Lisbon to Nicosia.

These crises would have been a lot shorter if the countries involved — Greece, Portugal, Spain, now Cyprus, soon Slovenia, and perhaps Italy for a second time — had possessed their own currencies. But all of them use the euro, so their monetary policy is set in Frankfurt at the ECB. Instead of devaluing their currencies in order to spur exports and ease the repayment of debts, all of these countries have had to undergo some combination of fiscal austerity, deflation, and, most notably in Cyprus’s case, loss of assets.

The lesson is you can’t have monetary union without fiscal union. Monetary policy and fiscal policy need to work together.

The interesting thing is the impact on political stability as well. They have a table showing how Parliaments in southern Europe have become more fragmented and extreme, which threatens Europe as a whole to a degree. They use the  Herfindahl Index to calculate the fragmentation.

The NZ Parliament Herfindahl Index is currently 0.34.

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The Euro problem

March 11th, 2013 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Brian Carney at the WSJ reports:

Seventeen years ago, Bernard Connolly foretold the misery that awaited the European Union. Given that he was an instrumental figure in the EU bureaucracy and publicly expressed his doubts in a book called “The Rotten Heart of Europe,” he was promptly fired. Mr. Connolly takes no pleasure now in having seen his prediction come true.

The solutions:

Two immediate solutions present themselves, Mr. Connolly says, neither appetizing. Either Germany pays “something like 10% of German GDP a year, every year, forever” to the crisis-hit countries to keep them in the euro. Or the economy gets so bad in Greece or Spain or elsewhere that voters finally say, ” ‘Well, we’ll chuck the whole lot of you out.’ Now, that’s not a very pleasant prospect.” He’s thinking specifically, in the chuck-’em-out scenario, about the rise of neo-fascists like the Golden Dawn faction in Greece.

The other “solution” is they leave the Eurozone.

Yet unemployment is close to 27% in Spain and Greece. The euro-zone economy shrank ever-faster throughout 2012. And—most important in Mr. Connolly’s view—the economic fundamentals in France are getting worse. This week France announced it would miss its deficit-reduction target for the year because of dimming growth prospects.

It’s one thing to bail out Greece or Ireland, Mr. Connolly says, but “if the Germans at some point think, ‘We’re going to have to bail out France, and on an ongoing, perpetual basis,’ will they do it? I don’t know. But that’s the question that has to be answered.”

Italy isn’t too flash either.

Which brings us back to the politics of the euro crisis. At some point, the people in the affected countries presumably will call a halt to the pain and sweep in a government willing to think the impossible—leaving the euro, for example.

To avoid that, Germany could well agree to pay for a transfer union, either believing that the transfers needn’t be permanent, or hoping they’d be less expensive than a euro break up. But, Mr. Connolly warns, once a mechanism is in place to transfer money from Germany to the current-account deficit countries, it’s only a matter of time before Germany is faced with the question of adding France to its list of dependents—something even Berlin may not be willing or able to afford.

I suspect Germany’s limit may come before even that.

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Great Boris quotes

March 6th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

The Telegraph reports:

Rules to limit the rewards would drive well-paid financiers out of the City and harm the economy, Mr Johnson said, insisting that the plans were doomed to failure.

“This is possibly the most deluded measure to come from Europe since Diocletian tried to fix the price of groceries across the Roman Empire,” Mr Johnson said.

The last Roman ruler to persecute Christians, Diocletian brought stability to the empire after the chaotic third century. In 301AD, he passed his edict on prices, an unsuccessful attempt to stop inflation by imposing maximum prices on common goods.

I like a politician that knows his history.

The mayor’s comments put pressure on David Cameron to water down the new EU bonus rules, agreed provisionally in Brussels this week.

Under them, annual bonuses will not be allowed to exceed a banker’s salary, starting next year. Bonuses of twice annual salary will be allowed if shareholders approve them.

Oh, why stop there. Let’s also pass a law saying account executives can’t have commission in excess of their base salary.

Supporters of the cap say it will discourage bankers from pursuing the sort of high-risk deals that helped cause the financial crisis. Opponents point out that hedge funds, private equity companies and other financial firms are unaffected.

Mr Johnson said the rules would only harm Europe.

“Brussels cannot control the global market for banking talent. Brussels cannot set pay for bankers around the world,” he said.

“The most this measure can hope to achieve is a boost for Zurich and Singapore and New York at the expense of a struggling EU.” Mr Johnson added: “People will wonder why we stay in the EU if it persists in such transparently self-defeating policies.”

Well there will be a referendum in 2016, if the Conservatives win re-election.

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European Unemployment

March 5th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

The NY Times reports:

Unemployment in the 17-nation euro zone climbed to 11.9 percent in January from 11.8 percent the previous month, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

For the 27 nations of the Union, the jobless rate in January stood at 10.8 percent, up from 10.7 percent in December. All of the figures were seasonally adjusted.

Even though the EU is not that major a trading partner for us anymore, their woes will impact us. If Europeans are unemployed they are not spending money on imported goods from China. If the Chinese economy doesn’t grow as quickly as previously that impacts us both directly and via Australia.

The official stats say:

Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States, fell in seven and
remained stable in Denmark. The largest decreases were observed in Estonia (11.1% to 9.9% between
December 2011 and December 2012), Latvia (15.5% to 14.4% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012),
Romania (7.4% to 6.6%) and the United Kingdom (8.3% to 7.7% between November 2011 and November 2012).
The highest increases were registered in Greece (20.8% to 27.0% between November 2011 and November 2012),
Cyprus (9.9% to 14.7%), Portugal (14.7% to 17.6%) and Spain (23.6% to 26.2%).

The NZ unemployment rate is 6.9%. Too high, but better than most of Europe.

 

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Cameron calls for UK referendum on EU membership

January 24th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

The Telegraph reports:

In a landmark speech, the Prime Minister said it is “time for the British people to have their say” amid growing public discontent with the power of Brussels.

Mr Cameron pledged an in-out referendum in the first half of the next parliament as democratic consent for membership is currently “wafter thin”.

“It is time to settle this European question in British politics,” he said. “I say to the British people: this will be your decision.”

Long overdue. It is cunning to time it for 2017, as it puts the acid on Labour and the Lib Dems. If they don’t commit to a referendum, they’ll suffer at the ballot box. People want to have a say – even if it is a vote to stay. Ed Miliband has said he won’t support a poll. I think he may come to regret that decision.

His decision to hold a poll was greeted with relief and praise from a wide range of Conservative MPs, but the reception across the Channel has already proved hostile.

A French minister branded the promise of a referendum “dangerous” and a former senior German politician described the possibility of Britain’s exit as a “veritable disaster”.

It would be, for the EU. That is why the EU has to reform. It is an undemocratic institution with almost all power with appointed Commissioners. It needs to focus more on free trade and economic prosperity, rather than regulating so many aspects of European life. If it does not agree to changes, then I think the UK will vote to leave.

The Prime Minister promised that he will personally fight for Britain to stay in the EU, after re-negotiating a better deal and clawing back some powers from Brussels.

He also went further than calling simply for the UK to have a new relationship with the EU. Setting out a wider vision for reform, he made a pitch to other leaders for a more “flexible, adaptable and open” relationship between all members, not just Britain.

“Far from unravelling the EU, this will in fact bind its members more closely because such flexible, willing cooperation is a much stronger glue than compulsion from the centre,” he said.

Absolutely.

The full speech is here.

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The EU wins the Nobel Peace Prize

October 13th, 2012 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The timing of this is even more strange than Obama winning it.  Don’t get me wrong – the EU has been a good success at stopping wars in Europe.  Mind you, I think WWII was the bigger factor.

But why give it to the EU now, in the middle of their economic meltdown? It looks like a sick joke, or a sympathy award.

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Pour on more petrol

September 30th, 2012 at 2:45 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Almost daily, Europe faces questions on whether its once-vaunted single currency can survive, and anti-European Union rumblings echo in capitals where governments are cutting spending in exchange for a bailout from Brussels or to satisfy its scrutiny of the national deficit.

The European Union is in the thick of its deepest crisis – and at its core is whether the EU’s design, based on shifts of power from sovereign states to the centre, is fatally flawed.

Yet even in the midst of this turbulent debate, a powerful bloc is saying the answer to Europe’s problem is not less integration, but more.

Last week, 11 out of the 27 EU nations appealed to save the guttering flame of federalism.

“In many parts of Europe, nationalism and populism are on the rise, while the feeling of solidarity and sense of belonging in Europe are dwindling,” the so-called Future of Europe Group said. “We have to take action to restore confidence in our joint project.”

The eight-page blueprint issued in Warsaw calls for closer economic and monetary governance across the EU, including a single supervisory body for banks and closer inspection by Brussels of national budgets and economic strategies.

Now bear in mind that those in Brussels with the power are unelected – they are appointed by Governments. So what is being proposed is to give the unelected officials power over national budgets!

More decisions in the Council of Ministers, the highest political authority in the EU, would be made by majority vote, thus preventing a single country or minor bloc from torpedoing European laws.

This would mean individual countries could be forced by a other countries into submitting to them. The day that happens, expect the EU to shrink dramatically.

“The eurozone crisis demonstrated with lethal force that Europe’s existing instruments of government are just not good enough to give the eurozone the speed of decision-making needed to weather the latest financial storm,” Klau said.

The problem is too much integration. The Euro integrated currency is a disaster.

One ambitious recommendation is for citizens to directly elect the president of the European Commission, the powerful executive, which oversees a budget of €147 billion ($229 billion) and enforces EU laws. He or she would also appoint his or her own team of commissioners.

That would be an improvement, but smaller states will be reluctant to sign up. The US model works because the Senate specifically is designed to protect smaller states. Same in Australia.

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Spain gets closer to the brink

July 25th, 2012 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The Daily Telegraph reports:

The yields on closely-watched two-year debt surged by 78 basis points to a modern-era high of 6.42pc, leaving it unclear how long the country can continue funding itself. Italy’s two-year yields vaulted to 4.6pc.

“We can’t keep going like this for another 15 days,” said Prof Miguel Angel Bernal from Madrid’s Institute of Market Studies. “The European Central Bank has to bring out its heavy artillery.”

Andrew Roberts, credit chief at Royal Bank of Scotland, said the dramatic spike in short-term borrowing costs marked a key inflexion point in the crisis, replicating the pattern seen in Greece, Ireland and Portugal as they lost access to market finance. “We are fast approaching the endgame,” he said.

A collapse for Spain would be huge. For Italy, the consequences beyond belief.

El Confidencial said the Rajoy team was thinking of “putting on the table” a possible withdrawal from the euro, a dramatic escalation in the game of brinkmanship between the eurozone’s Latin bloc and German-led creditor core.

“We would have our own currency again and restore competitiveness. It would have some disastrous consequences at first, but we would regain control over our own policies and we would escape from the crisis sooner,” a government source reportedly said.

I think they should leave the Euro. It is clear you can not have monetary union without fiscal union – or at least hard fiscal barriers all keep within.

Gary Jenkins from Swordfish said the EU may be able to “rustle up” just enough money to finance an EU-IMF Troika rescue for Spain – probably around €400bn – but Italy is too big to handle.

The existing EU bail-out fund (EFSF) is down to about €160bn after covering the needs of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and the Spanish banks. The new permanent fund (ESM) will have €500bn, but is facing a challenge in the German constitutional court. It is far from clear whether these funds can raise large sums on the open market at viable cost.

Mr Jenkins said the fire must be contained before it reached the next big country, either by massive ECB intervention or full fiscal union. Germany is still blocking both. “The battle for Spain is already lost. The battle for Italy has begun,” he said.

If this happens, we will not be immune. Forget surplus in 2014/15 – in fact our big challenge may just be to avoid a structural deficit.

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The Eurocalypse Now debate

May 30th, 2012 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Thanks to the NZ Initiative I was able to attend the Eurocalypse debate at the Auckland War Memorial Museum last week. Cam Browne was also there and has blogged on it. The pro-EU speaker commented that given the timing of the debate (new Greek elections just called), that he felt like someone preaching contraception to the College of Cardinals :-)

I won’t cover the debate in full, but it was a good example of the NZ Initiative can contribute to public policy discussions in New Zealand. There was one statement by MEP Dan Hannan which resonated with me.

Hannan said that the reason the UK (and other countries) went into the EU was the promise of prosperity. No country wants to surrender political sovereignty, unless there are benefits for them in doing so. The trade-off for surrendering power to the EU, was that they were forming a prosperous and powerful trading bloc. Europe would rival the United States as an economic super-power.

Two issues have undermined those benefits. One is the declining power of the EU in the global economy, as Asia especially grows. Growth in the EU is fairly minimal in the older member countries (but quite strong in the new economies). Already the EU has shrunk to just under 30% of the global economy. By 2050, it will be just 15% they project.

Worth noting the original EEC cost only 0.03% of European GDP. The EU now costs 1%, or 30 times that.

Now also put on top of that the Euro crisis, as weak economies threaten even the healthier EU economies. It becomes apparent that the rationale of greater economic prosperity in return for surrendering political sovereignty has disappeared.  Hannan asked if either major party in the UK would propose joining the EU today, if it were not already a member. He says there is no chance at all.

So Hannan advocates that the UK leave the EU, but like Switzerland and Norway sign free trade agreements with the EU, so you get the benefits without the loss of control. Hannan said he thought a referendum on the UK staying in the EU was inevitable, but conceded to the other speaker that it is quite possible the UK would vote to remain, as the two main parties would both campaign to stay in there.

So it was an interesting debate, which I hope we will see more of. Also worth highlighting a profile and interview in the Listener of Initiative Executive Director Oliver Hartwich. Some extracts:

“Thank God for the porn industry,” he wrote in a newspaper column two years ago. “The seemingly questionable industry does not care about morality, but is nevertheless a constant source of innovation and social improvement.” The column lauded the industry for the development of 3D films, predicting the technology – if not the content – could be used by schools to make geography and chemistry lessons much more interesting. “With some justification, sexual needs could be called the mother of the web’s invention. Without streaming videos of screaming porn stars, bandwidth would not have been added so fast to the global net,” he suggested.

Oliver is not the only person to have noted the Internet porn industry has had a considerable part in the development of the Internet.

Since the end of the gold standard in the US in 1971 – which required the US dollar to be backed by a fi xed amount of gold – money has had no intrinsic value. Hartwich believes we need to again anchor the monetary system to a commodity – although not necessarily gold, and maybe a mixture of commodities. He’s not a lone voice on this. In 2010, World Bank president Robert Zoellick called for a return to the gold standard, saying the world needed a more co-operative monetary system and should “consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values”.

Hartwich’s friend and colleague Detlev Schlichter, author of Paper Money Collapse, says the financial crisis is not an accident of capitalism but the “unavoidable consequence of the political decision to abandon a gold standard and to adopt in 1971 a system of unrestricted fiat money creation”. Hartwich believes New Zealand and Australia should consider moving their currencies to some “new system of commodity banking”, although he hasn’t got a recipe for how that could be done.

A return to the gold standard is far from the orthodox view. Would be quite interesting to hear maybe Oliver and the Reserve Bank Governor debate whether we should return to commodity based currencies. I’m personally not convinced, but have never heard anyone except the anti-monetarist lunatics of Social Credit advocate this. It would be good to hear a more rational debate.

Although international leaders promoting stimulus packages often say they are following the path of British economist John Maynard Keynes, Hartwich claims they often misrepresent his actual writings. “Keynes never said you can spend and spend and spend.” In the 1920s, Keynes even said that government should make up no more than 25% of the economy. “That would make him a neoliberal by some standards today,” Hartwich chuckles.

A good reminder.

Hartwich is obviously well to the right of centre, yet he is not an aggressive tax cutter. He agrees there is a relationship between economic growth and levels of taxation, but he derides last decade’s Bush tax cuts in the US as “fiscally irresponsible” and does not believe governments should go into deficit to fund them.

I agree. Spending has to be under control to cut taxes.

Asked about his top priorities for New Zealand, he names education and housing policy. He also wants to examine social issues such as mental health. He worked for 15 months in a mental health institution as a young man “because I didn’t want to join the army”, and was moved by the experience.

Glad to see education on the list.

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Eurocalypse Now with Daniel Hannan

May 24th, 2012 at 1:37 pm by David Farrar

I’m up in Auckland for the Eurocalypse Now debate tonight with high profile British MEP Daniel Hannan. It is likely to be a very lively debate about the future of Europe, the Euro and the EU. There are still a few places left, and it is free to attend. Starts 5.30 pm at the Auckland War Memorial Museum. You can register to attend at http://eurocalypsenow.eventbrite.co.nz/.

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Eurocalypse Now?

May 18th, 2012 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

This should be a superb debate and discussion in Auckland.

Eurocalypse Now?

a discussion with

Daniel Hannan, Member of the European Parliament

and

H E Francis Etienne, French Ambassador to New Zealand

chaired by

Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director, The New Zealand Initiative

Can the Euro crisis get any worse?

With a pro-growth Socialist president firmly installed in France, Greece in political gridlock, soaring unemployment and a deepening banking crisis in Spain, and Angela Merkel’s pro-austerity Christian Democrats suffering a crushing defeat in the big German state of North-Rhine Westphalia, are we finally approaching the end game for the European Union?

Join Dr Oliver Hartwich, executive director of The New Zealand Initiative, for a moderated discussion with firebrand anti-EU Member of the European Parliament and Youtube sensation Daniel Hannan and French Ambassador to New Zealand and EU cheerleader His Excellency Francis Etienne.

I so wish I could attend. If you wish to attend, you need to register at this page.

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The extreme right in Europe

May 9th, 2012 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

They may not have claimed ultimate victory, but the biggest winners of the elections in France and Greece were the parties of the extreme right.

Fringe parties, some of them routinely labelled “neo-fascist” until recently, have made stunning inroads into mainstream European politics, to the point that in France, Norway, Finland, Hungary and Austria they either hold or threaten to hold the balance of power. Governments are increasingly faced with the choice of either giving ground on hot-button issues such as immigration and Islam, or ceding power.

In Greece – its disastrous economy in the hands of European moneymen, its political establishment rotten with corruption and unemployment among the under-25s cresting 50 per cent – this general election has seen a host of extremist parties emerge.

The leader of Chrysi Avgi (“Golden Dawn”), Nikos Michaloliakos, would not have been given the time of day in most EU countries only a short while ago. An open admirer of Hitler (he has called him “a great personality of history”), Michaloliakos has adopted the Nazi salute and a version of the swastika as his party’s emblem. One of his candidates in this election remarked laconically: “Most of the money is in the hands of the Jews.”

I have always remarked that the extreme left and extreme right can be very alike, hence they both benefit from an anti-austerity backlash.

At the last election Golden Dawn polled a derisory 0.29 per cent; this time they are expected to crash through the 3 per cent threshold to end up with 7 per cent and a dozen MPs in Parliament. That will still put them a long way from holding power.

But they may stop a government from forming without their consent.

In the Netherlands the power of the far right was demonstrated last week when Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, anti-Muslim and anti-EU, brought down the Government, wrecking a long-standing financial pact with Germany which had been one of the pillars of EU stability.

I think it is unhelpful to compare the Freedom Party with the Golden Dawn. There is a huge difference between being anti-EU and anti-immigration and being neo-nazis. Let’s look at the various parties.

France – the National Front (or Front National) has no MPs in the National Assembly or the Senate and only got 4% at the last elections. However it routinely gets around 15% in presidential elections. They got 18% in 2012, 10% in 2007 and 17% in 2002 (when they came second).  They were very anti-semitic under Jean0Marie Le Pen, but less so under daughter Marine who has even praised Israel. They advocate France should leave the euro, and reintroduce customs borders.

Norway – not sure why Norway was mentioned because as far as I know, there are no far right parties in their Parliament.

Finland – the True Finns got 19% at the 2011 election, and were almost the 2nd largest party. They are eurosceptic and anti-globalisation which is not really far right. They also support more progressive taxes. A nationalistic party but in no way neo-nazi.

Hungary – Jobbik is Hungary’s third largest party and got 17% in 2010. In 2006 they had an electoral alliance with a far left party ironically. They do use fascist symbols and have had a number of anti-semitic incidents.

Austria – Jorg Haider’s Alliance for the Future of Austria is a break off from the Freedom Party. Both have become less extreme in recent years.

Netherlands – Geert Wilders leads the Party for Freedom. They got 16% in the last election. They are eurosceptic and anti-immigration but in no way neo-fascist,.

Greece – Golden Dawn did get 7% this week and has strong fascist symbols and salutes. Their leader has been convicted of illegal possession of explosives. Their youth wing has organised white power concerts and the original party charter required members to have Aryan blood.

So overall I’d say Golden Dawn is an outright fascist party. Hungary’s Jobbik is neo-fascist. The Austrian parties and the French National Front were neo-fascist but not necessarily are today. And I don’t see the Norway, Finland or Netherlands parties as being any more extreme than say NZ First.

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Europe not getting better anytime soon

May 7th, 2012 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

AP reports:

Socialist Francois Hollande defeated conservative incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy to become France’s next president, heralding a change in how Europe tackles its debt crisis and how France flexes its military and diplomatic muscle around the world.

I was never a big Sarkozy fan, but Hollande’s policies may have an impact well beyond France.

Hollande inherits an economy that’s a driver of the European Union but is deep in debt. He wants more government stimulus, and more government spending in general, despite concerns in the markets that France needs to urgently trim its huge debt.

Will France join the PIGS? And Greece votes also:

Greek voters enraged by economic hardship have (overnight NZ time) deserted traditional governing parties in droves at elections, putting the country’s future in the euro zone at risk, according to an early projection by the Interior Ministry.

The projection, confirming a pattern in earlier exit polls, showed the two parties supporting an EU/IMF bailout that is keeping Greece from bankruptcy would struggle to form a workable coalition government.

To be blunt current Greek culture is very unhealthy, and they are architects of their own misfortune. While small incidents, the stories of a Kiwi traveller there are symbolic of their problems:

The next day I’m at the bus stop early to get back up to the top of Meteora but it doesn’t come. Like many things in Greece they have a real CBF attitude – and they wonder why their economy is rooted.

And:

The whole riot thing doesn’t really bother me though, as I’ve been informed most of it is just for the TV cameras and once they’re gone the rioters can be found a few blocks away drinking chi.

And:

I guess that’s hardly surprising, the Greeks do have a reputation for being lazy, but in a way it’s extraordinary given they were the ones to invent such things as democracy.

I first encounter this laziness when I visit the Archeology Museum primarily to see the Greek vase collection which takes up the entire first floor.

I’m ridiculously excited (nerdy I know) but ever since I studied them at high school I’ve been a little obsessed.

But when I get there I discover the collection is closed.

When I ask I’m told – “just because.”

So I ask someone else and they helpfully inform me that they didn’t feel like putting on enough staff to cover it today, even though it’s the weekend.

And while only a museum collection, it is symbolic of the country overall.

Back to Greeks being lazy… they have a equal CBF attitude when it comes to showcasing their most prized possession – the Acropolis.

Most days it closes at 3pm but somedays earlier – it just depends on how they feel.

I suspect that Greece will have to be thrown out of the Euro, and have their own currency devalue to very low levels, for Greece to realise the rest of the world won’t keep funding your lifestyle.

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A new USSR?

October 6th, 2011 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

In what is sure to be seen as a bid to rebuild the Soviet Union, Vladimir Putin has floated the idea of a “Eurasion Union”.

Putin, who recently announced he will be running for president, said the union – made up of former Soviet states – would be similar to the European Union.

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan were already going ahead with economic integration and will introduce unified market rules and regulations at the start of 2012, according to the Russian Prime Minister.

But Putin quickly deflected suggestions the union would be an attempt to rebuild the USSR.

“There is no talk about rebuilding the USSR in one way or another,” he told a Russian newspaper.

“It would be naive to try to restore or copy something that belongs to the past, but a close integration based on new values and economic and political foundation is a demand of the present time.”

I’m all for economic co-operation  but I do wonder how Putin’s Eurasian Union would cope with, for example, a Greece whose failure to pay their own way means all the other countries have to bail them out?

I’m guessing he’d send in the tanks and take over the country. Maybe this is what Germany should do with Greece – demand that Merkel be placed in charge until the Greek Government is running a surplus. If they say no, then kick them out of the Euro.

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Pain for Europe

July 15th, 2010 at 5:30 pm by David Farrar

Many of us are waiting to see if Europe crashes, pushing the world into a second recession. The Business Roundtable tweeted this article, which I thought made some great points:

A SPECTRE is haunting Europe: the spectre of public debt. The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio for the European Union is projected to reach 80 per cent this year. Some recent growth in public indebtedness reflects weak economic conditions, but structural budget deficits have also increased sharply.

That’s not just Greece and Spain, but the entire EU. 80% of GDP is far far too high a debt level. Hell I think even 20% is too high.

First, particularly after the industrial unrest of the late 60s, labour market regulations entrenched union power while shutting young people and older workers out of the labour force. Second, as rigid labour markets undermined productivity and fed excessive wage claims, greater, increasingly opaque subsidies were provided to businesses. Third, as subsidies proved insufficient to maintain private sector jobs, public sector employment and the pension system were expanded, locking in entitlements to future public expenditures. And fourth, governments tolerated erosion of the tax base through tax evasion and the growth of the black economy.

Inevitably, the outcome was a loss of competitiveness.

Lessons we should not forget.

Can the situation be turned around? History shows that durable fiscal consolidation involves cuts to public expenditure, rather than increases in taxation. Such cuts are not impossible. After all, between 1995 and 2006, general government expenditures as a share of GDP declined by 10.8 percentage points in Sweden, 8 percentage points in Denmark and 12.7 percentage points in Finland.

And we should be aiming to get expenditure as a share of GDP down to under 30%.

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UK Independence Party beats UK Labour

June 8th, 2009 at 2:25 pm by David Farrar

The European elections are not better for UK Labour. At this stage it looks like Conservatives will get 27% (not great for them either), UKIP 17%, Labour 16%, Lib Dems 14%, Greens 9% and BNP 6%,

The British National Party has won at least one seat in the European Parliament, dismaying many. There is a (understandable IMO) backlash against Islamic immigration. A lot of people are saying we don’t care about your race, but we do care about your religion – if the religion means you reject our basic outlook on human rights and won’t integrate.

The BNP is a racist party. Their new MEP is a former neo-Nazi. It is a shame they got elected, but proportional representation makes it easy for miority parties to gain representation – the good and the bad.

But other parties in the European Union which are anti-Islamic immigration are not in the same league as the BNP. Classifying them all as “far right” is very simplistic.

Any It will be interesting if Brown survives until the election. It is very hard to remove a UK Labour Leader – it is not just a vote of Caucus.

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EU Blog Regulation

September 7th, 2008 at 3:43 pm by David Farrar

Some in NZ I am sure will want NZ to follow the EU in “voluntary” blog regulation.

From the Daily Telegraph:

It’s the same when it comes to the EU’s determination to clamp down on blogs. Eurocrats instinctively dislike spontaneous activity. To them, “unregulated” is almost synonymous with “illegal”. The bureaucratic mindset demands uniformity, licensing, order.

Eurocrats are especially upset because many bloggers, being of an anarchic disposition, are anti-Brussels. In the French, Dutch and Irish referendums, the MSM were uniformly pro-treaty, whereas internet activity was overwhelmingly sceptical.

Bruno Waterfield recently reported on a secret Commission report about the danger posed by online libertarians: “Apart from official websites, the internet has largely been a space left to anti-European feeling. Given the ability to reach an audience at a much lower cost, and given the simplicity of the No campaign messages, it has proven to be easily malleable during the campaign and pre-campaign period.”

The EU’s solution? Why, to regulate blogs!  Back in June (hat tip, EU Referendum), MEPs began to complain that unlicensed blogs were “polluting” cyberspace with “misinformation and malicious intent”. They wanted “a quality mark, a disclosure of who is writing and why”.

At the time, I dismissed it as the ramblings of a single dotty MEP. Not even the European Parliament, I thought, would actually try to censor the internet. I was wrong. We now have the full report and, sure enough, it wants to “clarify the status, legal or otherwise, of weblogs”, and to ensure their “voluntary labelling according to the professional and financial responsibilities and interests of their authors and publishers”.

Iain Dale also expounds:

We all know that ‘voluntary’ soon becomes ‘compulsory’. My label is the title of my blog. That is quite sufficient, and I don’t need some faceless Eurocrat to tell me otherwise.

And will it be adopted?

Europhiles will now, no doubt, accuse me of scaremongering, and point out that it’s only a Parliament proposal and has now to be agreed by the Commission and the Member States, and in all likelihood won’t get very far. I’m too old to fall for that old trick.

I wonder how long until we see such a proposal down under?

Hat Tip: No Minister

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The Irish No

June 14th, 2008 at 11:35 am by David Farrar

The European Union has had voters in Ireland reject the Lisbon Treaty, after the earlier EU Constitution was also rejected by voters in several countries.

Only Ireland was allowing (in fact was forced to) their citizens to vote on the Treaty, but the rejection by that one country means the Treaty is dead (unless they want to throw Ireland out of the EU).

The no vote was 54.3% which was more decisive than expected. Both the major parties plus the major media in Ireland were campaigning for a yes vote.

Not surprisingly the EU Referendum blog has lots of commentary and coverage.

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