Ikaroa-Rawhiti analysis

June 29th, 2013 at 9:07 pm by David Farrar

All 111 booths in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election have reported in and Labour’s Meka Whaitiri has won by 1,761 votes.

Turnout was very low. Just 10,570 ordinary votes cast plus 1,620 special votes which equals 12,190 total votes. This compares to 18,732 votes in 2011, and as a turnout of people on the roll is around 35% only.

The main four candidates’ (with change from 2011 electorate vote in brackets) results are:

  1. Meka Whaitiri (Labour) 41.5% (-19.2%)
  2. Te Hāmua Nikora (Mana) 24.8% (+10.5%)
  3. Na Rongowhakaata Raihania (Maori) 20.0% (-3.1%)
  4. Marama Davidson (Green) 11.3% (no cand in 2011)

It’s a good victory for Labour, with a 16.7% margin (was 37.6%) over Mana, being 1,761 votes. Mana were obviously lying over their claims that Labour polling had them only 5% behind. Should help David Shearer’s leadership (which will make the Nats happy), but can’t be too complacent. The total vote share of 42% is less than Maori and Mana combined.

Mana did well to come second, and reports were they had a good activist base at work, plus an attractive candidate to youth.

The Maori Party lost votes from 2011. This should be a wake up call to them that they need to sort their leadership out, or they will struggle to retain support.

Davidson for the Greens did pretty well, with her vote being slightly above the Greens party vote in 2011. Sounds like she will get a reasonable list placing in 2014.

Meka is now an MP. On paper she looks like she could be one of the better Labour MPs. Congratulations to her on her election.

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All as bad as each other

June 24th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald asks the main Ikaroa-Rawhiti candidates for their views on some issues:

Meka Whaitiri: Until we have some sound research that says [mining] doesn’t have any environmental impact, I can’t support that.
Marama Davidson: Ban it! Risky off-shore drilling, mining and fracking are all industries we want to get away from. Today we are releasing a package of green jobs for Ikaroa-Rawhiti that don’t ruin our environment.
Na Raihania: I am absolutely opposed to mining and drilling our Mother Earth. And this idea it will provide jobs for everybody is stretching it.
Te Hamua Nikora: As far as mining goes, we say frack off. No thank you.

So all four candidates want the entire mining and oil industry in New Zealand closed down, putting close to ten thousand people out of work and knocking more than two billion dollars off NZ’s GDP.

Biggest issue in the electorate
Meka Whaitiri: Jobs.
Marama Davidson: Jobs and protecting the environment and wanting jobs that don’t ruin the environment.
Na Raihania: Mortality rates are high, education … but employment, I guess, and our social status.
Te Hamua Nikora: Poverty, stemming from unemployment, and a lot of health issues coming from poverty and poor housing.

So in one sentence they all say they are against all mining, fracking, drilling and in the next they all says jobs and unemployment is the major issue. Idiots, all of them.

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Labour NOT breaking electoral law again

June 12th, 2013 at 2:20 pm by David Farrar

It is well known you can not distribute pre-filled in or pretend ballot papers. We’ve had this law for decades. But Labour’s Ikaroa-Rawhiti candidate facebooked this (now deleted):

mika

You can see above Labour’s candidate facebooking a filled in ballot paper, and even worse promoting it for advance voting.

UPDATE: A reader says this came up in their timeline as sponsored, which means it is a paid advertisement by Labour. If so, that is even worse.

UPDATE2: Only an offence if done within 3 days of polling day, so not a law breach. I should have checked the Electoral Act rather than go off memory. Happy to state that on this occasion, Labour is not breaching electoral law, and my regrets I got it wrong. May this exception become the norm.

Arguable that with advance voting, the prohibition should be during the advance voting period.

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More Mana transparency issues

June 5th, 2013 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Isaac Davidson at NZ Herald reports:

A Mana Party candidate who kept $12,000 that had been given for his cancer treatment says he was unable to give the money back.

Unable? Not normally a hard thing to do.

Mr Nikora was diagnosed with a brain tumour three years ago and his community raised between $30,000 and $40,000 for private treatment.

When the Auckland District Health Board did the operation free of charge, he said he would give the money to charities and the community.

Maori current affairs show Native Affairs asked Mr Nikora this week whether he had returned all of the money, and he confirmed that he had kept $12,000 which had been raised for him in an art auction.

“They wouldn’t let me give that money back,” he said.

Asked whether he felt it was right to keep it, he said: “Yes. My whanau gave it to me. We have to think of this in not so much a money way but in a Maori way.”

There’s two issues here. The first is the decision not to donate all the money to charity. The second is the decision not to be upfront about it.

I have no issues with someone who was the beneficiary of fundraising keeping the funds, if they wish to – and the donors are happy with it. But one should be upfront about that, and not claim you have donated all the money to charity when you haven’t.

Mr Nikora has said in previous interviews that he redistributed all of the money given for his treatment.

And that is the issue.

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Labour vows to terrorise

June 4th, 2013 at 2:15 pm by David Farrar

I thought this press release was a parody, but it seems it was genuinely put out by David Shearer. The key extract:

“Labour will campaign relentlessly to once again earn the trust of the people of Ikaroa-Rawhiti. We will organise, mobilise and terrorise our political opponents. …

“Let the games begin,” says David Shearer.

The Mana Party and Maori Party are not impressed.

How on earth did Shearer and his staff think that sentence was a good idea.

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Whaitiri wins Labour selection

May 27th, 2013 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

Vernon Small at Stuff reports:

Iwi chief executive Meka Whaitiri will be Labour’s candidate in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election on June 29.

She beat five other challengers for the nomination yesterday, including high-profile broadcaster Shane Taurima.

It will be interesting to see what Taurimia now does. I presume he won’t go back to being an interviewer for Q+A!

Labour is tipped by most commentators to hold the seat in the by-election sparked by the death of Parekura Horomia. He held the seat for 14 years and won in 2011 with a majority of 6541.

Ms Whaitiri was seen by many as his chosen successor. She will be up against Na Raihania from the Maori Party, who came second to Mr Horomia in 2011, Te Hamua Nikora from the Mana Party and the Greens’ Marama Davidson.

It would be a very big surprise for her not to hold the seat.

She was head girl at Karamu High School and played both netball and softball at a national level. Her first job was at the local freezing works.

She went on to complete a masters degree in education from Victoria University, Mr Shearer said.

“Meka has a strong Maori governance background and knowledge of how government and Parliament works.”

She was also a senior adviser to the minister of Maori Affairs and for four years has been chief executive of Ngati Kahungunu Iwi Incorporated.

She appears to have a good background, and should make a good MP. She could end up Maori Affairs Minister if Labour win the next election. (more…)

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Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election dates

May 9th, 2013 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The key dates for the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election are:

  • Wed 8 May – date announced
  • Wed 29 May – Writ Day
  • Thu 30 May – nominations open
  • Wed 5 June – nominations close
  • Wed 12 June – advance voting starts
  • Sat 29 June – E-Day
  • Wed 10 July – Official Results
  • Thu 18 July – final day for return of the writ
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The Maori Seats

November 17th, 2008 at 12:32 pm by David Farrar

Labour won the party vote easily in all seven Maori seats. Their party vote ranged from 45% to 57%, and the Maori Party ranged from 21% to 34%. Waiariki was closest with an 11% gap and Ikaroa-Rawhiti had a 31% gap.

In 2005 Labour ranged from 49% to 58% and Maori Party from 18% to 31% so not much change on the party vote.

National in 2005 got from 2.7% to 7.4% in the Maori seats. In 2008 it was from 5.5% to 10.9% so a very small improvement there.

The electorate votes we start from Te Taik Tokerau in the North. Hone Harawira won it by 3,600 in 2005 over Dover Samuels. This time he has a 5,500 majority.

Pita Sharples evicted John Tamihere from Tamaki Makaurau by 2,100 in 2005 and holds it over Louisa Wall by a massve 6,300.

In Waiariki, Te Ururoa Flavell won by 2,900 in 2005. In 2008 he doubles that to 6,000.

Nanaia Mahuta held onto Tainui by 1,860. The boundary changes to Hauraki-Waikato did not favour her, so she did well to hold on by 1,046.

In Te Tai Hauauru, Tariana Turia won by 5,000 in 2005 and this time he rmajority is almost 7,000.

The big battle was in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Parekura held off Atareta Poananga by 1,932 in 2005, and Poananga’s former partner, Derek Fox, challenged in 2008. But Fox fell short by 1,609.

Finally in the South, Te Tai Tonga was held by Mahara Okeroa in 2005 by 2,500. New Maori Party candidate Rahui Katene beat him by 684 votes in 2008.

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Electorate Polls

November 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged over on curiablog the results fo several recent electorate polls, including tonight’s one in Tauranga. The topline results are:

  • Tauranga – Bridges 26% ahead of Peters. Labour’s Pankhurst in 4th place at 5%. NZ First Party Vote down from 13% in 2005 to 6%.
  • Palmerston North – National candidate Malcolm Plimmer ahead by 3%
  • Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Parekura Horomia 5.4% ahead of Derek Fox
  • Nelson – Nick Smith 36% ahead of Maryan Street
  • West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor 3.5% ahead of Chris Auchinvole
  • Te Tai Tonga – Maori TV/TNS has Mahara Okeroa ahead of Rahui Katene by 10% – 49% to 39%. However Marae Digipoll has Okeroa bejind by 6% – 40% to 46%
  • Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta ahead of Angeline Greensill by 0.6%

All three Maori seats held by Labour are highly competitive. In two seats Labour is ahead and in the seat with conflcitign results, an averaging of them out would see Labour ahead. This means that the Maori Party may not have much of an overhang at all – in fact they could even gain a List MP if they got 4% or so party vote.

Palmerston North is the only Labour held seat that a public poll has shown National ahead in, so far. Due to boundary changes Taupo and Rotorua are technically National’s on paper.

Based on boundary changes and public polls (and note this is not a personal prediction) the electorate seats would be:

  1. National 35
  2. Labour 28
  3. Maori 4
  4. ACT 1
  5. United Future 1
  6. Progressive 1

Labour will in one sense be very pleased to be ahead in all three Maori seats. However this does lessen their chances of winning via overhang.

And the Tauranga result is superb. With only 5% voting Labour on the electorate vote anyway, it means no amount of tactical voting in Tauranga can put Winston back in that way.

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Atareta endorses Derek the Fox

November 1st, 2008 at 6:07 am by David Farrar

Derek Fox’s former partner and opponent for the Maori Party nomination, Atareta Poananga, has buried the hatchet and endorsed Derek to her whanau and supporters.

I’m not sure what is more scary – having Atareta fighting against you, or having her supporting you :-)

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Two TVNZ7 debates

October 7th, 2008 at 10:50 am by David Farrar

Frontpage (which makes Agenda) has two debates coming up on TVNZ7:

The Swing Seats debates will be in two seats that could be crucial to the outcome of the election- Epsom and the Maori seat of Ikaroa- Rawhiti.

The Maori seat of Ikaroa–Rawhiti, which encompasses most of the East Coast of the North Island will be one of the most hotly contested seats in this election.

Cabinet Minister Parekura Horomia will go head to head with the Maori Party’s Derek Fox.

This debate will be broadcast in front of a live audience in Gisborne on October the 16th

The second debate is taking place in Epsom on October the 23rd where the colourful ACT leader Rodney Hide will be joined by National MP Richard Worth, Green Party MP Keith Locke and Labour’s Kate Sutton.

Hide needs to win this seat again to stay in parliament.

Both programmes will be LIVE-streamed on the TVNZ webite tvnz.co.nz  (key word : SWING SEATS) and will be available on TVNZ ondemand after they have screened.

They will be produced by the team that makes TV One’s “ Agenda” programme and will be fronted by Agenda co-host and TV One reporter Rawdon Christie wth support from Wallace Chapman, presenter of TVNZ7′s “Back Benches” programme.

Christie with support from TVNZ7′s “Back Benches” presenter, Wallace Chapman, will give the candidates in these “swing seats” a chance to tell the audience and viewers why they have the best policies for their constituents.

To join in the debate as part of the audience, people can write or send an email to the show’s producers explaining who they are and what question they would like to ask the candidates.

Emails can be sent to swingseats@frontpage.co.nz
and letters sent to :
Front Page,
P.O Box 90361
Auckland

The blogmobile has been invited to cover the Ikaroa-Rawhiti debate in Gisborne, so we’ll live blog it also.

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Fox to be Maori Party Candidate

March 9th, 2008 at 3:11 pm by David Farrar

Yesterday’s Herald stated Derek the Fox has been chosen as the Maori Party candidate for Ikaroa-Rawhiti.

Labour are going to have to work very hard to retain more than one of the seven Maori seats.

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