EXCLUSIVE
On Q+A this Sunday morning we have an exclusive interview with the man tipped to be Pakistan’s next Prime Minister – cricket legend Imran Khan.
In a frank interview with Guyon Espiner, Khan talks about his ambitions, the crooks that run Pakistan, America’s drones, the failed war against terrorists and his very personal and candid account of having to face death.

LAW & ORDER
Last election it was the three strikes law. What will ACT’s law and order policy be this time?
Paul Holmes previews Don Brash’s big law and order speech with the ACT leader. Do we need to get even tougher on crime? Or have we tipped too far already?

SOCIAL WELFARE
And then one of the most hotly contested debates this election, Social Welfare.
So before the politicians start campaigning, Guyon Espiner talks to Peter Hughes, the outgoing head of the Ministry of Social Development. Named public sector boss of the year two years running and the man who does the hard work of helping struggling Kiwis find work, we’ll talk about the difficulties of getting people off welfare and what needs to change.

PANEL
Joining Dr Claire Robinson on the panel this week are political strategist John Pagani and former ACT MP Stephen Franks.

Q+A, 9-10am Sundays on TV ONE.
Repeats at 9.10pm Sundays, 10.10am and 2.10pm Mondays on TVNZ 7

Opinion of:
Iranians – 51% favourable to 40% unfavourable
Jews – 6% favourable to 88% unfavourable
Christians – 39% favourable to 54% unfavourable

If Iran develops nuclear weapons and does not respond to diplomacy:
Favor US Accepting A Nuclear Armed Iran 27%
Favor US and Other Countries Taking Military Action to Prevent Nuclear Armed Iran 38%

Israel and Palestine:
favor a peace treaty recognizing the State of Israel, if an independent Palestinian state is established 30%
favor all Arabs continuing to fight until there is no State of Israel in the Middle East 51%

Saudi Nuclear Arms
Favour 52%
Oppose 31%

The response on the Israel question are probably the most disappointing.  The signal it sends to Israel is that it has nothing to gain from giving up territory and allowing an independent Palestine because the true aim of many will still be to wipe them out.  Now this is not to say that Israel shouldn’t still do this, but it’s hardly an incentive.

I chatted to the SMH political editor, Peter Hartcher, for up to an hour on the political situation here.  Always fun to chat politics with interested people.

I suggest people read the full article, but here is an extract about NZ:

In New Zealand, the story is similar. The conservative party, the Nationals, exiled from power since December 1999, have been huddling close in the lee of Labour’s Helen Clark.

More than Britain or the US – indeed, more than any other country – New Zealand was a zealous early adaptor of the Thatcherite market agenda. Per capita, it implemented the biggest privatisation agenda in the world. But the conservative revolution is long since passé and privatisation is a dirty word.

Labour has rolled back some of the early conservative accomplishments. The national system of railway tracks has been re-nationalised. The Post Office banking business, after being sold off, has been re-established. The privatisation of the three national energy companies, halted after the sale of only one, has been frozen. And the National Party is not proposing to change any of these policies.

The conservatives have a popular, young, self-made leader, John Key. “His strategy is ‘don’t rock the boat’,” says David Farrar, a popular conservative blogger who has worked for four Nationals prime ministers and opposition leaders.

“A year ago he tried to shut down traditional areas of controversy – nuclear ship visits and climate change, for example. The Nationals have been ahead in every poll this year and they are likely to win the next election” – due by next November – “but that’s because Labor is old and tired and not because of any upswelling of support for the Nationals’ agenda.”

As with any article, only some of what you say makes it.  Certainly it is true that Key has moved to shut down some areas of difference which could hurt National.  Likewise it is true that the mood is more to throw Labour out, than a popular revolution for National.  I did however give some examples of areas of difference such as allowing minority private shareholdings into some SOEs, the extent of tax cuts, competition for ACC, likely education policy etc.

Some interesting criticism of the Howard Government’s record also by CIS Director Greg Lindsay:

Howard increased the size of the state in Australian life and made it the biggest-taxing and biggest-spending government in the country’s history. Even his signature efforts at deregulation, such as Work Choices, were a confusion of detail rather than a clear retreat of the government, Lindsay argues.

“When you are as rich as Australia is now, you should be reducing the amount of money people receive from government, but Howard increased it. The Howard government forked out obscene amounts of money in Family Tax Benefit A and Family Tax Benefit B. They tried to nationalise the family.”

Sadly all Governments increase spending – the only debate nowadays is by how much. The debate in NZ will be about whether spending increases by $2.5 billion a year or $2.1 billion a year. Now that is what the public want – so they will get it.  But to really push NZ up the global league tables, we would need to be prepared to be a bit radical as to what should the state do and not do.

Considering Winston made an exception for a Government Minister recently, he should make an exception for the Scouts.  I’m with Keith Locke on this one.

Anyway he ran a competition asking readers to rate 13 world leaders from 1 to 10, and Helen Clark actually made the top half being in 6th place with a rating of 4.4.

The most favourite was Sarkozy, followed by Merkel.  Then Ireland’s Bertie Ahern and Canada’s Stephen Harper.

Both Clark and Rudd beat out George W Bush (and this is a conservative blosite poll!) and Vladimir Putin.

Could be a fun summer poll for Kiwiblog – get people to rate Rudd, Gordon Brown, Harper, Bush, Sarkozy and Merkel.   Not sure if enough NZers follow international politics enough to make it worthwhile.

Another option is to run our own Democratic and Republican primary.  I’m still backing Clinton on the Democratic side and Giuliani on the Republican side.

I think both Clark and John Howard deserved praise for their very good and professional relationship, despite being from different sides of the political spectrum.

Sadly they have been rare exceptions. Shipley and Howard got one fine. But Bolger despised Keating (for good reason – he betrayed us). Lange and Hawke had a personality clash, and Fraser despised Muldoon (also for good reason).

I think Rudd will be quite a good Prime Minister. Australian Labor is quite moderate in some areas, for example:

WAYNE Swan has guaranteed he will deliver Labor’s $31 billion tax-cut plan, flatly rejecting the push from social progressives for Labor to instead spend the money on better services.

Insisting the cuts will ease pressure on inflation and interest rates by boosting workforce participation, the new Treasurer has also promised an austere first budget in May, delivering on election promises but offering no surprises outside further cuts in spending.

In an interview with The Weekend Australian yesterday, Mr Swan declared Labor “the party of middle Australia”, promising its emphasis would be on economic conservatism to build and maintain prosperity.

Under the proposed cuts, by 2010 the 15 per cent tax rate will apply to incomes of up to $37,000, the 40 per cent tax rate will be cut to 37 per cent and the 45 per cent rate will be cut to 42per cent.

In NZ one pays 15% uo to $9,500 only.  In Australia it ill be up to $37,000.

She lives in real fear for her life.  Sam Harris has set up a way for people to donate to help with her protection.  That’s a good idea.  It would be a tragedy if she is killed, but it would also be tragic if she has to give up her freedom of speech just to stay alive.

This new constitution would have removed the law requiring Chavez to step down in 2012, and give him greatly increased powers.

He is accepting the result for now, but we’ll see given time whether or not he does hand power over peacefully.

Nelson should make Turnbull Shadow Treasurer.  That would be a fairly good team.  Still can’t see them being able to win in 2010 but events as always may influence that.

Deputy should go to Julie Bishop.

Garry Kasparov, the former chess champion and opposition leader, was arrested Saturday and sentenced to five days in jail after trying to lead a march to the offices of the federal election authorities.

Wow, I didn’t know Russia already had an Electoral Finance Act. Kasparov must have forgotten to put his name and address on his placard.

Hat Tip: Whale Oil

It was at that point the ban began to sound very arbitrary; if it suits the Government to grant an exemption it will. And not just to people distantly connected with the military. Mr Sukanaivalu is a minister of the illegitimate regime. The only discernible “value to New Zealand” in his admission for the education gathering is that it teaches us a little more about our fraying sanctions.

It is a lesson also in the arrogance of power. By what principle can the Government argue that an ordinary gathering of ministers is more important to this country than a sporting event such as the chance to host a soccer World Cup qualifying match? It behoves those who intrude on others’ activities to make sure they apply the same rules to themselves.

Fiji seems not to be suffering much from this ban, nor is the New Zealand Government. It seems to apply only to the not-so-well-connected.

Most sanctions are a farce.  Both sides know they will be dropped eventually, and that they are designed to placate people, rather than actually be effective pressure on a regime to change.

I was interested to see who was on the UN Committee against Torture and after 20 minutes on the God awful UN site I found it.  10 experts – all I am sure fine upstanding people.  The countries they come from though are mixed.  five of them have good human rights ratings (from Freedom House) – Norway, Chile, Spain, Cyprus and the USA.  However we also have the reasonably repressive Senegal and Ecuador, the very repressive Morocco and Russia and the totally repressive China.  So the moral high ground is rather low.

Having said all that, I do repeat that I have some concerns with their use here.  Some Police have misused pepper spray and if they misuse a taser, the consequences can be fatal.  A taser should only be used when pepper spray would not be a safe option for the officer, and no action is not acceptable. They should be a substitute for pistols, not pepper spray.

Ms Ban got 12.5% which wasn’t bad as the Nationals had never stood there before. The seat got picked up by Labor.

This now provides fascinating opportunities.  Turnbull is not that popular with his colleagues (he was the Chairman of the Republican Movement).  Tony Abbott may stand, and he is a brawler who would be an effective opposition leader.  A good team could be Abbott as Leader and Turnbull as Deputy and Finance.  Turnbull is very committed to massive tax reform.

It will be interesting to see who stands.

Howard looks to have lost his seat also, and has endorsed Peter Costello as his successor.   My preference would be for Malcolm Turnbull to take over, but if Turnbull is sensible he will let Costello take the party into the 2010 election and then take over.

The final result looks to be 86 seats for Labour which is a massive gain of 26 seats.  The Coalition has dropped to 62 and two Independents. 29 seats went to Labour while the Libs picked up three from Labor.

The Senate sees 18 seats go to both the Coalition and Labor, and three to the Greens, giving a new balance of Coalition 37, Labor 32, Greens 5, Family First 1 and Independent 1.  Rudd may have some challenges there.The Democrats are finally wiped out and the Greens do well with 9% of the Senate vote.

In hindsight it is a pity that Howard did not retire last year with a legacy of four election wins and 10 years as PM.  But sadly very very few politicians ever go out on top.  I like the US term limits in that they do mean you go in, do a good job, and then move on without trying to keep the top job forever.

They have been unable to agree on a Government since elections in June.  And even the PM designate has called Belgium an accident of history.

Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union have all dissolved into their constituent parts.  Will Belgium be next?

“Come and join hundreds of others at Thomas Forde’s Australian Bar (for one day only). Dress up as your favourite Australian. There will be prizes for the best dressed. Thongs, singlets and akubras allowed.

This event is open to people of all political hues. Even Pauline Hanson supporters!

It is guarenteed to be a night of high tension, unbearable excitement, drinking and out of tune renditions of waltzing matilda.

For one night only Thomas Forde’s Irish bar becomes Australian and welcomes anyone interested in following the election of the year.”

Talking of the election, I’d say any chance of the Government hanging on (and there was a small chance as Labor were not doing as well in some marginals as they are nationally) died today after the revelation of a bogus pamphlet being distributed in a marginal seat claiming that Labor supported the Bali bombers.

This was both despicable and moronic.  And while the hierarchy of the party would never have endorsed such a stunt, the fact the husbands of an (retiring) MP and a  candidate were involved, means that they will be damned for it.

The people involved should be prosecuted,and further they should be given brain transplants.  Did they really think that it would work, let alone that it would not be traced back to them?

For those interested, the pamphlet is here. It really is a nasty bigoted smear.

I was thinking Labor would win 20 seats or so.  It may be a whole lot more now.