McCain now the effective nominee

Wednesday, March 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

John McCain is now the all but annointed Republican candidate for President. He has won in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island putting him over the 1,191 delegates needed.

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It may be getting close to all over

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 7:57 pm

It may be getting close to being over for Clinton in primaries. While she will hold on until the Mini Tuesday on the 4th, she has multiple problems:

  1. Five polls out yesterday showed Obama ahead nationally by an average of 7% – the lead ranged from 2% to 16%
  2. Clinton’s lead in Texas has dropped to an average of just 0.7%.
  3. The head to head averages show Obama beating McCain by 5,2% but McCain beating Clinton by 3.6%

On the Republican side, an end is in sight. McCain now has 1,013 delegates of the 1,191 he needs. So around 180 more needed. There are 265 up for grabs on the 4th so he should become the nominee on that day.

UPDATE: Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics analyses the numbers and works out how Clinton can still win – unlikely he says, but not impossible.

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Now that’s a fisking

Monday, February 25th, 2008 at 8:07 pm

Paul Sheehan in the Sydney Morning Herald does the mother of all fiskings on the New York Times’ story on John McCain.

I won’t even quote from it, because you need to read the whole thing. But it really is a template for all future fiskings.

It is also an important lesson in how subtle bias can be. They find the article:

  • had 13 negative and anonymous attributions
  • undermined a positive fact seven times with “but”
  • repeatedly turns ethical actions of McCain into innuendo of hypocrisy

It is a classic case of twisting the facts to fit the story.

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NY Times helps McCain

Monday, February 25th, 2008 at 10:42 am

The NY Times recently ran an article alleging John McCain had an affair with a lobbyist around 10 years ago.  They had no proof for the article, and not a single on the record source.

The story has been criticised widely, and now even by the paper’s own ombudsman.

Ironically it has served to unite the conservative base around McCain.  Previous conservative critics are now rallying to support him due to fury over the NY Times story – especially its timing.  The NY Times has had the story for months and months and by waiting until McCain was the presumptive nominee, their motives appear to be purely to damage the Republican Party – otherwise they would have run it earlier on before he was the presumptive nominee.

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