Kiwiblog

Tracy Watkins at Stuff reports:

Seated across from each other in a New York restaurant they made for an unlikely couple.

On one side of the table was John Howard, one of Australia’s most successful prime ministers; darling of the political Right, bogeyman of the Left after taking the role as America’s deputy sheriff in the Pacific, and becoming the villain in the Tampa affair.

His lunch companion was Helen Clark, the socially liberal former New Zealand prime minister, a flag-flying Iraq war opponent, standard bearer for the Left-wing social democratic movement – and the woman who even now, four years on from losing the election, can spark visceral dislike among many on the Right.

Mates? Of course, says Howard, after they caught up recently for a chinwag in New York.

“We don’t just exchange Christmas cards.”

It reflects well on both Howard and Clark that they worked well together, despite being from different sides of the political spectrum.

 But historic and geographical ties have not always been enough to put the relationship on a friendly footing. Before Howard and Clark it was Lange and Hawke, Muldoon and Fraser. Tension, backstabbing, and suspicion reigned.

Fraser was an idiot, and Muldoon a bully. Hawke thought Lange was a flake, and he was right. There was also Bolger and Keating – Keating was just simply untrustworthy.

Gillard and Key, again polar opposites politically, have forged even stronger bonds than Clark and Howard.

Key says getting the personal dynamics in the relationship right is “critical”. With Gillard, it helps that their partners get on as well.

Once all the official business was out of the way during their two-day summit in Queenstown last month, Key and Gillard escaped to the exclusive Millbrook resort for dinner with partners Bronagh and Tim. They did the same in Melbourne last year.

“We have a no officials, casual dinner, have a drink together,” Key said.

A good relationship between leaders is no guarantee of success, but it is almost a precursor.

The big unknown is a possible Tony Abbott government – though he and Key have already struck up a good relationship, and speak to each other regularly.

Howard, meanwhile, is confident Abbot can only be good for New Zealand.

“He’s got a good start. His wife is a New Zealander.”

Heh, that may be useful.

Speculation is growing in Australia that Kevin Rudd will (again) challenge Julia Gillard for the Labor Party leadership in March.

The article linked to has some graphics and stats on their social media usage, which I have summarised below:

Kevin Rudd has an incredible number of followers. Around 1 in 20 Australians follow him (and a few Kiwis). But he doesn’t just broadcast – he engages all the time with people tweeting him. So does Tony Abbott it seems.

A few thoughts:

• Isn’t it amusing that when Helen Clark agreed to take some boat people who were seeking asylum in Australia she was lauded by the entire left for her humanitarian gesture yet when John Key agrees to do much the same, but annually, he is condemned by the exact same people. And yes, the Tampa refugees were treated as part of the quota also.
• How can one criticize this deal for encouraging queue-jumping yet also advocate that Australia should resume onshore processing which has been shown to massively encourage boat voyages and queue jumping.
• Personally I think there is a legitimate criticism that this deal may encourage queue-jumping, but probably not significantly enough to actually lead to a group of people deciding to make a boat voyage they otherwise would not have.
• There is a surprising lack of sophistication in understanding our relationship with Australia is not purely a transactional one. The decision by the NZ Government helps Julia Gillard (and any successor)  in what is arguably her most difficult domestic issue. That will not be forgotten.
• The notion that Australia bullied NZ into this is ridiculous. In fact as reported it was a NZ initiative
• What is surprising is the lack of focus on a centre-right NZ PM helping out a centre-left Australian PM. It’s a nice example of not letting domestic politics interfere with having a strong relationship.
• I’m surprised also no one has cottoned on to Gillard making an unprecedented early announcement of the election date, almost certainly being because Key the same thing in 2011.
• Personally I think taking in refugees is one of the better things a country can do, so long as they are able to integrate well into their new country and that the level is sustainable. Note that Australia takes in 20,000 to our 750. I’d like that to increase at some stage in the future when our economy is stronger. But I think it is best increased through the UNHCR process, not through increasing the number in the bilateral agreement with Australia
• You have to love Labour’s strong clear policy on this issue. They are outraged of course, but when asked what they would do, the answer is “Shearer said if elected, Labour would discuss the policy with Australia.” – you can’t make this stuff up.

Quite a few things announced by Gillard and Key in Queenstown. They are:

• Joint action to address the high cost of mobile roaming rates between the two countries
  
• an $8 million trial of fast‑track automated border technology for trans-tasman travel
• Commencement of new retirement savings portability arrangements between Australia and New Zealand from 1 July 2013
• Entry into force of the CER Investment Protocol from 1 March 2013
• New Zealand has agreed to resettle 150 refugees who are subject to Australia’s offshore processing legislation, as part of their annual quota of 750 refugees
• NZ$3 million in matched funding over two years to support trans-Tasman collaboration to identify potential vaccines for rheumatic fever
• Investigate a possible reciprocal student debt recovery scheme.
• An A$5 million memorial will be erected in Wellington’s National War Memorial park precinct by the Australian Government

Damn those flesh-eating zombies and demonic hell beasts.

Last time I was in Canberra, was the day Kevin Rudd got rolled. Sadly it doesn’t look like either Gillard or Abbott will get rolled while I’m here, but the day before I got here the Speaker of the House resigned. The final straw was court documents revealing texts such as:

 ”Brough is a cunt,” Mr Slipper said in a text on October 10 last year. Soon after, he said: ”Funny how we say that a person is a cunt when many guys like cunts.”

About five minutes later Mr Slipper began what the Opposition has called “‘vile anatomical references”. Referring to women’s private parts, he said: ”They look like mussell (sic) removed from its shell. Look at a bottle of mussel meat. Salty Cunts in brine.”

Personally I love mussels and scallops

Anyway not the worse thing ever said, but in the context of this being to a young male staffer he kept hitting on, it was inevitable he went.

Slipper won a motion of no confidence against him by one vote, but as Labor were defending him the House, the independent MPs had gone to him and told him he must resign. He did. This meant that Labor looked like they were defending the indefensible.

Gillard used the debate to launch a ferocious attack on Tony Abbott as a sexist and misogynist. The attack has become a viral hit internationally, but let me tell you that actually in Australia I’m not sure it went down so well. The newspapers are full of stories casting scorn on it, It certainly appealed hugely to Labor’s own supporters but for many it was seen as playing the victim card.

Abbott did not help things by using the phrase “Government dying of shame” which was unwise considering what Alan Jones said about Gillard’s father. But it has also just come out that a comedian at a Labor/union fundraiser made very disgusting remarks about Abbott’s female chief of staff Peta Credlin. Gillard had left when it was made, but several Ministers remained. It rather undermines their attempts to make Abbott look sexist – rather it just shows how personally denigrating Australian politics is – in all parties.

The Age reports:

There are calls for a boycott of radio station 2GB over remarks by Sydney broadcaster Alan Jones that the Prime Minister’s father, John Gillard, had “died of shame”.

The talkback host told a packed room of Liberal Party members: “Every person in the caucus of the Labor Party knows that Julia Gillard is a liar, everybody. I will come to that in a moment. The old man recently died a few weeks ago of shame. To think that he has a daughter who told lies every time she stood for Parliament.”

That’s appalling behaviour by Jones, and frankly if he is unable to talk about Gillard without such nasty references to her deceased father, then he shouldn’t be on air.

Hat Tip: Keeping Stock

The Herald reports:

The politics of the Australian Government’s decision to reopen offshore processing facilities for asylum seekers on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island will not be silenced despite the Opposition’s indication it will support new migration laws.

As Immigration Minister Chris Bowen yesterday moved amendments to allow the measures proposed by Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s expert panel on boat people, the Opposition tried to exploit her move as “capitulation” and to blame the Government for the deaths of 1000 people at sea.

Its attack was given force by the news that 67 more asylum seekers are feared to have perished in the Indian Ocean after the departure of their boat in late June and no evidence of their arrival in Australia.

Since Friday Australian patrol boats have intercepted seven vessels with more than 350 people on board.

The Howard era policy worked. It was effective, and as the message got out that boat people would not make it to Australia, the number of boats dwindled to almost nothing. Labor’s solution has been an unmitigated disaster, and their eventual capitulation shows this.

More than 22,000 people have sought asylum since Labor came to power in 2007, opening Gillard’s struggling minority Government to a debilitating attack from the Opposition and all efforts at reaching compromise blocked by both Liberals and Greens.

They only have themselves to blame.

A funny advertisement for beef, featuring well giant balloons that look like Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott.

Very funny.

news.com.au reports:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard will have her hands full when parliament resumes this week, fending off fresh leadership speculation, facing a potentially heated caucus meeting and bracing for a new opinion poll.

Newspapers said Joel Fitzgibbon, the government’s chief whip, was openly canvassing caucus for votes to return Kevin Rudd to the top job.

When the Chief Whip starts lobbying for change you have real problems. The challenge for Labor is deciding between the leader the public hates and the leader the caucus hates.

Incidentally I was staggered to be listening to Morning Report this morning, and hear an interview between I presume one of the hosts and the RNZ Australian correspondent. The host said something like:

“So Kevin Rudd will just be getting on with the job of Foreign Minister” and the correspondent said “That’s right”.

Rudd resigning as Foreign Minister and challenging Gillard for the leadership earlier this year was a rather major news story.

Normally an allegation of a gay sex scandal involving someone elected as a Liberal Party MP would not concern the Leader of the Australian Labor Party and Prime Minister.

But it does when the MP is Peter Slipper. He was first elected to Parliament in 1993 and re-elected in 2010. But in November 2011 the Speaker of the Australian Parliament resigned, and Slipper became Speaker against the wishes of his own party to help the Government’s majority. He then resigned as a Liberal MP, and is now an Independent.

At the 2011 Federal Election both Labor and the Coalition won 72 seats. Gillard retained power by gaining four votes from the six cross-party MPs. They are:

• Adam Bandt, Greens
• Andrew Wilkie, Independent (former Green)
• Tony Windsor, Independent
• Rob Oakeshott, Independent

After losing the Speaker, The Government can only pass laws 75-74. When Slipper became Speaker, the numbers became 76-73. But Gillard renenged on a deal with Andrew Wilkie, which made the numbers 75-73-1.

If Slipper resigns and a Labor MP replaces him, then Gillard has just 74 seats and the Coalition probably 74 seats and Wilkie hold the balance of power. Does not guarantee the Government falls, but would be very unstable.

Greg Ansley at NZ Herald reports:

Gillard has always maintained that she decided to contest the leadership only on the day she confronted Rudd with her demand for a ballot, and her repeated protestations to ABC’s Four Corners programme on Monday night – and to reporters since – have not been convincing. …

Gillard, both on Four Corners and to reporters since, has denied any preparation for a coup. But she has sidestepped detailed replies, pleaded memory lapses and has looked consistently uncomfortable.

It is best to be upfront about coup planning. No one believes it was a spur of the moment decision. I recall the Shipley coup against Bolger – they actually had a committee with a cover name (Te Puke bypass) which met for some months, and were upfront about this after the coup.

The decision boomeranged disastrously. Gillard was faced with allegations that, despite repeated statements to the contrary, she and senior staff had prepared for a leadership challenge weeks before the event.

Four Corners said this had been supported by internal party polling indicating Gillard was more popular than Rudd, and that her senior staff had begun writing the first speech she delivered as Prime Minister at least two weeks before Rudd’s ousting.

Former senator and Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson told the programme he knew a week in advance that a challenge was to be mounted.

Four Corners also said United States Embassy cables released by WikiLeaks showed the US State Department knew, even before some Labor MPs, of a challenge.

When the state department knows, everyone knows.

Gillard described suggestions that she had been driven by polling as “wholly untrue”, but admitted she might have known a speech was being written. “This was a tense few days for me and the Government, so I can’t specifically say to you when I came to know about the speech,” she told ABC radio yesterday.

But she said she did not commission the speech.

Ministerial staff are often pro-active, but I don’t think this extends to writing a speech for your boss in case they become Prime Minister.

I think it is unlikely Gillard will survive to fight the next election. More difficult to pick is who will replace her.

The SMH reports:

An Australian Prime Ministerial staffer has been linked to yesterday’s ugly protest incident in Canberra, forcing his resignation and acutely embarrassing PM Julia Gillard.

In an early evening statement, the Prime Minister dismissed as ‘false’ claims that one of her staff had spoken to people at the Aboriginal Tent Embassy prior to yesterday’s angry protest that temporarily trapped her and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

But Ms Gillard acknowledges that a member of her media unit ‘did call another individual yesterday and disclose the presence of the Opposition Leader at the Lobby restaurant. This information was subsequently passed on to a member of the Aboriginal Tent Embassy.’ …

He is Tony Hodges, one of four press secretaries working in Julia Gillard’s media unit.

The link is deeply embarrassing for the Prime Minister and leaves her shouldering some of the blame for an incident where many had pinned responsibility on Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott.

This is typical Australian Labor tactics.  The press secretary would have leaked the info, hoping it would lead to anti-Abbott protests.

Instead it led to his own boss having to be dragged out by Police. And now they can’t blame anyone else for it.

Hawkes Bay Today reports:

Hawke’s Bay apple producer Apollo made a cheeky but tasteful offer to Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard for the Rugby World Cup semifinal between the All Blacks and Wallabies.

Apollo’s director, Bruce Beaton, packed a carton of New Zealand Queen apples and asked Napier MP Chris Tremain to transport the fruit to Prime Minister John Key’s house in Auckland at the weekend.

“The idea was that if Julia was over watching the rugby with John in Auckland, she could have a tasty New Zealand apple to munch after the game,” Mr Beaton said.

She wasn’t there, but hopefully the apples will get to her in Australia.

The Australian reports:

“I’m a very happy little vegemite being Prime Minister … being Foreign Minister of Australia,” he told ABC Central West today while on his way to Condobolin, west of Orange, to open a rotary-funded indigenous studies centre.

One can forgive Kevin for the slip-up, as regaining the top job must be at the top of his thoughts most of the time.

Recent polls have shown he would do much better against the Coalition than Julia Gillard. However she is genuinely liked by many of his colleagues and Rudd is not, so the decision is not as easy as it might otherwise be. But this latest poll is a shocker for Gillard:

Ms Gillard is now neck and neck with Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister among female voters, 39 per cent to 37 per cent, compared to 52 per cent to 33 per cent at the last election.

Abbott has always been considered a total turn-off for female voters. If he is only 2% behind amongst women, then his biggest weakness has been overcome.

This looks potentially very good. Anyone know if any NZ broadcaster will be showing it?

Hat Tip: Red Alert

Kate Chapman at Stuff reports:

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has told the Wallabies they better do well so she can get back at John Key for his “perpetual abuse”. …

She told the players that Key had been using every opportunity to rib her about the All Blacks during the Pacific Islands Forum which both leaders attended this week.

“We better make sure we’re in a position to be giving some mocking back at the end of all this.” …

“At every stage, I cannot describe it to you, any issue before the forum, any direction somehow Prime Minister Key would find a way of working in a sledge.

“I’ve had it for two days.”

Superb.

The Herald has an extract from Julia Gillard’s speech. Absolutely hits the spot. What a shame the Greens bllocked her from actually addressing Parliament, and having these wonderful words recorded in Hansard:

“Our founders could not have imagined the extraordinary events that would bring our nations far closer than any words or any laws.

Not forged in meeting rooms by old men wearing suits.

But by young men in trenches wearing slouch hats and lemon squeezers.

That is why I say Australia has many alliances and friendships around the world.

Economic and defence partnerships of every kind.

But New Zealand alone is family.

When those 29 men never came home from the Pike River mine, we didn’t just mourn for the two Australians.

We mourned for them all. Family.

When Pike River exploded, New Zealand didn’t have to ask Australia to send help.

We just did.

And when natural disasters hit Australia this summer, New Zealand didn’t need to be asked to lend a hand.

You just did.

And our gratitude is boundless.”

A great speech.

NZPA report:

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard will make her first visit to New Zealand next week and become the first foreign leader to address New Zealand’s Parliament.

Prime Minister John Key announced today that Ms Gillard would visit on February 15 and 16.

He said a highlight would be her speech in Parliament’s debating chamber on the 16th.

“She will be the first foreign leader to do so – this will be a highlight of the visit and underscores the special and unique relationship that exists between the two countries,” Mr Key said.

I think it is appropriate that the Australian PM is the first leader to do so.

Rudd was scheduled to do so last year but of course got rolled the week before by Gillard. Labor has fallen behind the Coalition in the polls for the first time since the election, so lets hope Julia actually survives the next two weeks, so we don’t have to go for third time lucky!

I’ve almost lost track of the fake statements made by Trevor on Red Alert. Most I ignore, but this one is worth exposing.

Trevor blogged:

John Key said he helped arrange the meeting between Julia Gillard and Phil Goff.

Nonsense.

Arranged through Labour Party contacts. Some of us have known her since before she was a Minister.

Now one should always be careful when Trevor does supply a reference and a quote. Unlike Trevor, we will go to a reliable source – NZPA. Their report says:

Mr Key said he was relaxed about it.

“I mean he rang me on Sunday to tell me he was going. Normally the leader of the Opposition has to write and I certainly did that when I was the leader of the Opposition, but I also saw John Howard when I was leader of the Opposition and he was prime minister so look, at the end of the day, I’m fine with it. I’ll be seeing Julia Gillard in Vietnam in the weekend.”

Mr Key said he offered the assistance of New Zealand diplomats in Australia and would have offered further support if Mr Goff had written to him earlier.

So Key in no way claimed he he helped arrange it. He offered assistance – as one would hope he would.

“I for one don’t think Phil Goff is going to go to Australia and bag New Zealand. He’s been a long standing foreign minister, he’s a long-standing politician, so I don’t think we should be too bent out of shape about it. I’m not.”

Which is a nice change from a former PM who used to rant about treason when Opposition MPs met overseas leaders, and said things she disagreed with.

Asked if it was appropriate for the Australian administration to see the Labour leader before the Prime Minister Mr Key said it was up to them.

“I don’t care about it either way, I’ll see her at the end of the week.”

He disagreed he had been outmanouevred.

My God if Labour are trying to talk this up as some sort of tactical victory, they really are desperate. Opposition Leaders have more flexible schedules than PMs. Still, it beats talking about the latest polls.

Andrew Wilkie has declared he will back Labor. This is no surprise. I wonder how many of his massive 26 point policy wishlist did they agree to. While no surprise, it gives Gillard momentum coming on the back of Treasury disagreeing with the coalition on the costs of their plans.

On the vote count, the coalition now has a 11,000 vote lead on the TPP vote.

I expect Gillard will do a deal with the three Independents in the next few days.

A friend sent this to me. Very cute.

The special votes are still being counted, and they are not helping Labor. Not only is the coalition still on 73 seats to 72 for Labor, but yesterday they overtook Labor on two party preferred voted. Gillard had suggested that Labor’s TPP lead is why the Independents should support them.

Now the Coalition leads on primary votes, TPP votes and seats.

Gillard is in trouble. And it is not Tony Abbott doing the damage, but almost certainly Kevin Rudd.

A poll has the coalition ahead 52% to 48%, and on radio John Pagani said that he had heard that Labor’s polling was not looking good in the all important marginal seats. So how has it happened?

Well first there was the leak to Laurie Oakes about the deal with Rudd for him to stay on until October, which Gillard walked away from. As only three people witnessed it, not hard to guess who put that out there.

Then came the leak that in Cabinet Gillard fought against Labor’s paid parental leave scheme. This has damaged her amongst “babyland”. Gillard also tried to limit pension increases – hell I am liking her more and more. But the public are not. And again no prizes for guessing the likely leaker.

And the latest leak also has Rudd all over it – a revelation that Gillard sometimes sent her bodyguard to meetings of the Cabinet national security committee. That one may be especially damaging.

And in case there is much doubt it is Rudd, Alexander Downer reveals that the former Liberal Government used to feed info to Rudd when he was a junior Labor MP, knowing Rudd would use it to undermine the Labor Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, as Rudd wanted his job.

Is it just me, or do Rudd and Chris Carter seem somewhat alike – both try and rat-fuck their leaders, because they had their travel perks and status taken away?

What some readers thought they saw!

What the headline actually was.