Boris wins

May 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm by David Farrar

Superb – Boris Johnson has beaten Ken Livingstone by 53% to 47% (very close to YouGov prediction).

Labour MPs are saying Gordon Brown has six months to turn things around or he will face a coup.

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UK Labour thrashed in local elections

May 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 am by David Farrar

The results are yet to be announced for the London Mayoralty (Zimbabwe is almost faster with its results) but the expectation is that Boris Johnson has won it off Ken Livingstone, as Labour have been mauled across the board.

Pundits said a loss of more than 200 seats would be very bad for Labour. Well they have lost a staggering 331 seats – a once in a generation annihilation. In fact Labour only came third in the popular vote with 24% behind Lib Dems on 25% and Conservatives on 44%.

It is now being openly speculated that Prime Minister Gordon Brown may be rolled before the election. He is lucky in that there is no general election needed for two years, but unlucky in that that gives lots of time for discontent to simmer.

Congrats to all my friends in the Conservatives – must have been a good night of celebrations.

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The London Mayoralty

May 1st, 2008 at 1:23 pm by David Farrar

Iain Dale blogs on the different poll results just prior to the local body elections in England. The polls open tonight our time and I expect results late tomorrow morning.

You Gov has it at Boris Johnson 44% and Ken Livingstone 36%. If no one gets 50% second preferences are allocated and on second preferences from the Lib Dem candidate mainly it becomes 53% to 47% for Boris.

Mori however has first preferences Boris 38%, Ken 41% and second preferences Ken 52% Boris 48%.

A lot of interest in who will be right. You Gov does Internet polling and Mori phone polling. You Gov has a pretty good accuracy history but that is no guarantee. What they do tend to agree on though is the higher the turnout, the better it is for Ken Livingstone.

The Livingstone campaign has actually complained to the UK Market Research Society about You Gov. This shows how seriously people take the expectations game.

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Boris leads in London mayoral race

March 25th, 2008 at 1:37 pm by David Farrar

Boris Johnson is leading Ken Livingstone by 12% in a recent poll.  That is amazing as Livingstone was regarded as unbeatable at one stage.  The election is on 1 May 2008.

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