Kiwiblog

This transcript is from Marae Investigates after they reveal that 47% of Maori said Shane Jones should replace Phil Goff as Labour Leader, with only 31% disagreeing:

Shane Taurima: Shane Jones, do you like that question?

Shane Jones: I’m reminded of what they used to say about J.T and Winston so every time you talk about leadership ambitions you can rest assured there’s a chain saw behind you cutting you as you speak, so I’ll just Taihoa.

Not exactly the normal “I am loyal to our leader and he is doing a good job” line.

Shane T: OK Tariana Turia, outgoing MP Miti Ririnui said this week that Phil Goff couldn’t relate to Maori and our polls have shown that and Labour needed a new leader.

Tariana: First of all I think they need a remarkable leader that can bind them together in their caucus because that is not happening so they need to consider that.  Whether it should be before the election or preparing for the next election and going for the long Term I think that would be their best bet, 7 weeks out from an election not a good idea to replace the leader, it’s happened in the past with them, they had Palmer, then Moore, then Helen in a short space of time. It’s not a good time for them to be imploding so they do need a remarkable leader (Shane – is that Shane Jones?) I think Shane Jones would make a remarkable leader, he’s intelligent, he’s got all the ability that a Labour caucus would need, he’d do far better if he was in a maori Party (Shane – is that an open invitation … much laughter all round)

Shane J

Thank you Tari but I’m in my waka and it’s called Te Roopu Labour.

High praise for Jones from Tariana.

Shane T: Hone, could you work in a Labour Party led by Shane Jones?

Hone: First of all in respect of Shane, I think he’s the most capable politician there in both Maori and in English, sadly I don’t think that they will want to make him the leader because I know a lot of the gays don’t like him, the women are pissed off with him because of the incident that he got involved with not so long ago and also because I suspect that Labour is still inherently racist and don’t particularly want to have a maori as a leader, however when the day comes, in about 2097, I’d be more than happy to work alongside him. 

And high praise from Hone also.

Further to my blog earlier this morning, the kind people at Marae have sent me a breakdown of some of their poll results, by roll. This allows an easier comparison to election results.

You can view the episode on their website, including a discussion between host Shane Taurima and John Key.

First the party vote results for the 700 respondents on the Maori roll (compared to actual election results):

1. Maori Party 62% (+33%)
2. Labour 23% (-27%)
3. National 11% (+3%)
4. Greens 2% (-2%)
5. NZ First 2% (-5%)

That is a decimation for Labour. Their party vote has more than halved amongst Maori on the Maori roll. Some of that will be losing Clark.

Then the party vote results for the 300 Maori respondents on the General roll:

1. National 42%
2. Labour 33%
3. Maori Party 16%
4. Greens 6%
5. NZ First 3%

Now this is unprecedented as far as I know – National to be outpolling Labour amongst Maori voters on the general roll.

The 2008 data has not yet been published but the NZ election study in 2005 had Maori on the general roll supporting Labour at 54%, and National at 17%.

So from the 2005 election, Labour has gone from 37% ahead of National amongst Maori on the general roll, to 9% behind.

And then if we take the overall sample of all Maori (both rolls) we have:

1. Maori Party 48% (+27% from 2005)
2. Labour 26% (-28%)
3. National 20% (+11%)
4. Greens 3% (-2%)
5. NZ First 2% (-7%)

Again I can’t compare to 2008 as there is no public poll data about how Maori on the general roll voted.  But the combined effect is clear – Labour at half the level they were in 2005, and both National and Maori Party at around double where they were.

Also interesting to see the breakdown by roll for John Key. He gets 26% Preferred PM amongst Maori roll respondents and 39% amongst Maori on the general roll. Goff is at 4% on Maori roll and 5% General roll.

In terms of approval of Key’s performance as PM, there is little variation. Maori on the Maori roll give him a net approval (yes over no) of 17% and Maori on the General roll a net approval of 24%.

I have not yet viewed the episode myself, but I think John Key will be very proud of such historic results, despite being a “white motherfucker”