Kiwiblog

I could write this in my Stuff blog, but I’m going to write about Winston instead for them. So I’ll do a little fisking of this graph published by John Pagani in his blog (and originally from The Standard he says).

First of all John uses gross migration to Australia. Most people would say that the more useful figure is net migration, taking into account those Kiwis who move back to New Zealand.

Secondly it almost makes it look like no-one left to Australia before that nasty John Key took power. But let’s add on the three years prior to that, using the quarterly net migration stats from Stats NZ.

Now don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that things are good, just because they are not as bad as the three years previously. I think the level of migration remains a big concern, and that the Government needs to undertake more extensive economic reform to lift productivity and hence wages.

The yellow line is 2010. As one can see, there has been a clear trend in previous years – that net departures peak in January and decline during the year.

But in 2010, the number of net departures is slightly increasing. Now 2009 was a lot lower than 2007 or 2008, so it is coming off a lower base, but I’d be concerned if that trend continues for much longer.

These migration states are interesting. The number of NZers leaving to Australia has been quite volatile, and is currently tracking down.

However the number of NZers returning to NZ has been pretty constant for most of the last five years, but has increased over the last year. It will be interesting to see how long the trend continues for.

The Herald did a ten year update on ten young New Zealanders they profiled at the end of the millennium as “Tomorrow’s People”.

Of the five they managed to contact and/or agree to take part, every single one of them now lives overseas. I’m surprised the Herald didn’t highlight this, as it is rather telling. The five are:

• Amber Hunt – working full-time with the English National Ballet.
• Helen Croad (nee Gregory) – works as a project manager for a London council
• Chamathka Dias – senior resident medical officer, locuming as an emergency department doctor around New South Wales
• Matthew Atiga – moved to Tonga last year to work as a high-performance coach to Tongan rugby
• Karl van Eyk – working away in the 35C-plus heat of a New South Wales summer on his uncle’s 6000ha sheep and beef farm about five hours north of Sydney

So the future of New Zealand is all overseas – rather sad. Some say they will return one day – may be interesting to check again in ten years.

This graphs shows the net permanent and long-term departures (departures less arrivals) of NZ nationals (citizens).

In October 2009, kiwis returning home outnumbered kiwis leaving for overseas. The last time this happened in an October month was in 1992.

This graph shows the net monthly migration figures for New Zealand citizens/nationals.

As you can see January is the month when we lose the most Kiwis, with the trend being to decline during the year. But in 2009, the net departures have fallen away much steeper than normal, and it is possible we may achieve a net gain (for NZ nationals) in one of the last three months of 2009.

The last time this happened was in December 2003.

The net loss in September 2009 was 304, which is the second smallest September loss since 1990.

The June migration stats came out yesterday. This graph shows the net PLT (permanent or long-term) migration of NZ citizens.

There is huge seasonal variation, so I have shown them year by year. Generally January has the highest net departures, and the number of net departures reduces every month during the year.

The net departures of citizens in 2009 are well down on 2007 and 2008. And it isn’t Kiwis returnign home, so much as Kiwis staying put.

If we take the April to June quarters, the no of Kiwis returning home was 4,302 in 2007, 4,503 in 2008 and 5,108 in 2009 – a small increase. While Kiwis departing was 14,414 in 2007, 15,685 in 2009 and 9,990 in 2009.

So while Kiwis returning home was up 600 in the quarter, Kiwis departing was done around 5,700.

NZPA report:

Immigration statistics show the brain drain has slowed dramatically over the past year, the Government said today.

Departures of New Zealand citizens to Australia were down 34 per cent and departures to the UK were down 26 per cent, Immigration Minister Jonathan Coleman said.

The decrease in departures has been significant. I’ve charted the monthly comparisons for the last six years.

The May 2009 figure is lower than even May 2004.

In the year to Nov 2008, there were:

• 83,802 PLT departures (76,000 previous 12 months) or 1,600 a week
• 48,474 PLT departures to Australia (40,786) or 930 a week
• 60,871 PLT departures of NZ citizens (54,722) or 1,170 a week
• 37,502 Net PLT departures of NZ citizens (31,614) or 720 a week

It will be interesting to see if the credit crisis makes the exodus worse, or if Kiwis return to home in troubled times.

Stats NZ have released their monthly migration statistics. They note:

• 500 more PLT departures in September 2008 compared with September 2007
• In the year ended September 2008, there were 82,300 PLT departures, up 7,600 (10 percent). (an all time record)
• Net PLT migration was 4,400 in the September 2008 year, down from 8,300 in the September 2007 year. The latest figure is the lowest since the October 2001 year (1,700).
• A net inflow of 40,800 non-New Zealand citizens and a net outflow of 36,400 New Zealand citizens were recorded in the year ended September 2008.
• Compared with the September 2007 year there were 5,900 more PLT departures of New Zealand citizens and 1,700 more PLT departures of non-New Zealand citizens.
• The net PLT outflow to Australia was 33,900 in the September 2008 year, compared with 26,200 in the September 2007 year. This is higher than previous peaks in the January 1989 year (33,700) and the December 1979 year (33,400).

The above is all from the Stats NZ commentary. Now let’s look at some data over time.

This shows that the number of permament and long-term departures is at an all time high. As a percentage of the population it is not yet at the peak but has climbed from 14 per 1,000 to almost 20 per 1,000.

That is quite high. Over a generation (30 years) that is 600 out of 1,000 people who would have left – and most won’t return.

If we look at just the last five years – since the current trend began, we see a few things:

• PLT departures up from 55,000 to over 82.000 in five years – a 49% increase
• PLT departures of NZ citizens up from 38,000 to almost 60,000 – a 57% increase
• Net PLT departures of NZ citizens up from 10,000 to around 36,000 – a 254% increase

I don’t show the net PLT figures for all travellers as the rate of inbound migration of non citizens is decided by Government policy and can be set as high or low as the Government wants.

The latest monthly migration stats confirm the trend of the last five years. Graphed above are the annual migration figures for:

1. Permanent and Long-Term Departures from NZ
2. Permanent and Long-Term Departures from NZ of NZ Citizens
3. Net Permanent and Long-Term Departures from NZ of NZ Citizen (departures less those returninh home)

I have not included a graph for Net Permanent and Long-Term Departures from NZ as inwards migration iof non citizens is determined by Government policy and can be adjusted to any level desired as first world countries always have massive immigration supply available.

Overall PLT departures have reached 81,788 – a record high since the current data series began in 1985. This is equal to 1,569 departures a week or 224 a day.

If one excludes non citizens, then PLT departures are at 59,132 which is 1,134 a week or 162 a day.

Now if one takes into account the number of NZ citizens returning home, then the net PLT departures of citizens is 35,859. Five years ago it was only 10,000.

So in annual terms, what cities are equal to our population loss:

1. The net PLT loss of citizens annually is equal to losing Gisborne every year
2. The gross PLT loss of citizens annually is equal to losing Nelson every year
3. The gross PLT loss of residents annually is equal to losing Palmerston North every year

And what has been the total population loss of the last five years:

1. The net PLT loss of citizens over the last five years is equal to losing Dunedin
2. The gross PLT loss of citizens over the last five years is equal to losing Hamilton & Palmerston North.
3. The gross PLT loss of residents over the last five years is equal to almost losing Christchurch.

Inwards migration of new New Zealanders (which is a great thing) helps keep the overall population stable, but that does not mean there isn’t a serious problem with the numbers leaving.

5.30 pm at Mac’s Brewery on Thursday with free beer and pizza. I might even pop along

National have released their first billboard. The PR says:

The billboard, on taxation and migration, was launched in Auckland this afternoon. The same billboard is going up at sites in Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton, and Tauranga.

“Our first election billboard promotes our intention to introduce an ongoing programme of personal tax cuts. It will be a responsible and a transparent programme,” says Mr Key.

“National will build on Labour’s planned October tax cuts. We will treat those as the first tranche in our tax cut programme. There will be further tax reductions on 1 April 2009, and again on 1 April 2010.

“The billboard also highlights Labour’s failure to stem the tide of people voting with their feet and leaving New Zealand.

“The figures are sky-high. Recent statistics show that more people than ever are leaving. In the year to July, 80,872 people packed their bags and headed overseas for good.

“That’s the highest loss for a year ended July since 1979, and the second highest loss ever. The figure equates to more than 1,500 people per week.

It’s election time alright!

Some nice work by the Government’s population website. They’ve done some pages on 12 common myths about population. A very user-friendly way to get information across:

Myth 1: Half of all marriages end in divorce

Myth 2: There was a surge of returning New Zealanders after 9/11

Myth 3: “The browning of New Zealand”

Myth 4: New Zealand women are now having their first baby at age 30

Myth 5: New Zealand’s population is only growing because of migration

Myth 6: “In 2003 four of every five pregnant Asian women aborted their babies”

Myth 7: The average life expectancy of males is 6 years less than females

Myth 8: New Zealand has 3 million people and 60 million sheep

Myth 9: The Brain Drain

Myth 10: There are at least 1 million New Zealanders living overseas

Myth 11: “There are more people alive now than have ever lived”

Myth 12: “New Zealand is in the midst of a baby boom”

I should point out that not everything here is a myth per se. For example the increased migration home after 9/11 is inconclusive – with it likely there was some impact but that otehr factors are at play. Also one can dispute their brain drain arguments as they do not look just as NZ citizens migration in and out but also new immigrants. Just because our migration policy brings in skilled persons doesn’t mean we are not losing skilled persons. They would be on better ground if they looked at migrations flows of NZ citizens and non citizens.

Also it would be useful if they provided links to source material. But none the less still a good effort.

Hat Tip: Miramar Mike and Llew

The latest migration stats continue the trend:

• In last 12 months 44,114 permanent or long-term departures to Australia which is 850 a week. this is the highest since early 1989.
• The net migration to Australia of 30,575 is the highest since September 11
• Total PLT departures of 79,327 is the highest since records began.
• Looking at NZ nationals only, 57,359 nationals left and only 22,902 returned. This net loss of nationals of 34,457 is the highest since the 12 months to Nov 2001

Last weeks Stats NZ released their latest monthly migration statistics, and the permanent and long-term departures for the last 12 months were up 11.9% from a year ago.

This issue is only getting bigger with the Fairfax page one stories on their poll results showing 10% of Kiwis are considering moving to Australia within the next 12 months.

The Standard is trying to do a King Canute and convince everyone there is not a problem, and you are all wrong. I think this is a classic example of why the Government has failed so badly in the last couple of years – it ignores the issues concerning average NZers and even worse lectures them on why they are wrong. Anyone who doesn’t live in a cocoon would know that the gap with Australia is a major concern, and that more and more families are getting divided up as people leave. Just talk to anyone not in politics as a day job, and they will bring it up as an issue.

But you do have to congratulate The Standard for the audacity of putting on the same graph axis the proportion of people staying and leaving, so they both look like flat lines.

They also keep pointing to net permanent and long-term migration, to claim there is no problem at all, but in doing so they confuse two semi-separate issues.

The level of inwards migration is effectively set by the Government. Yes there are factors such as NZers returning home (and that has also been dropping) but the Govt can and does adjust the requirements for migration with the points system, language requirements etc etc.

If the Govt wanted to, it could have 150,000 or even 200,000 migrants a year coming here. As a non third world country there is almost no limit to how many people would move here if they could.

So while the net migration figure is of some importance (if one does not have positive net migration then the population probably shrinks) the outwards migration figure is much more important.

As an example there is a big difference between say losing 40,000 people a year, and having 44,000 people migrate here and between losing say 200,000 people a year and having 204,000 people a year move here. There are also economic costs to losing people who have embedded in the local economy as opposed to having new workers from overseas. That is not an argument against immigration – I am a fan of it, but that simply replacing someone in NZ, with someone else is not the same as retaining them in the first place. A bit like an employer would rather keep staff longer than have say 30% staff turnover annually.

So while net PLT migration is a useful indicator for some things, it is one which can change dramatically by govt policy as there is near infinite demand from people to live here. And even if policy does not change, it is better to retain people than replace them.

So what has actually been happening with all the different stats. Let’s look at them one by one. First external migration:

Departures from NZ declined in the early 1990s and stayed fairly flat until 1995. From 1995 until 2001 there was a steady increase. September 11 reversed that trend as NZ looked so safe and secure, and for two years it dropped away. But from July 2003 it started increasing again and has just about reached an all time high for a 12 month period – the record is 79,328 in the 12 months to May 2001.

Now adjusting for population growth shows a slightly better picture, but the trend of the last few years is still marked.

Next let us look at PLT departures and arrivals for New Zealand citizens. As I mentioned above arrivials of non citizens is simply a function of how liberal or conservative your immigration policy is. But with NZ citizens it is appropriate to look at how many return home. So below are the numbers of NZ “nationals” who leave or arrive permanently or long-term.

The net PLT migration for NZ nationals has gone from 10,000 in 2003 to over 30,000 in recent months. As one can see the number of NZers leaving is increasing, while the number of NZers returning home has in fact been falling – has dropped 5,000 in the last few years. And considering the massive number of NZers now living overseas, you would expect the number returning to be growing.

Finally we look at migration with Australia, as that is where so much of the focus is. The level of people coming from Australia to NZ has dropped a bit since 2003, and increased from 1999 to 2003.

The big mover has been people going from NZ to Australia. It has almost doubled in the last four years, and net migration has more than tripled.

Now you can say, like Labour and allies do, is there a problem? Hey we are only losing 20 people per thousand residents per year? Well look at the implications over a generation of say 30 years. Over one generation 60% of the population will have left NZ. And it looks like only one in three nationals would return. Now that is a massive degree of economic and social dislocation.

Is it all the fault of the Government of the day? No, of course not. But should the Government be exhibiting a determined focus to implement policies that will lift NZ’s overall national income, that will make people want to stay or at least return to NZ? Hell, yes. And have the current Government’s policies been working? Hell, no.

For those who want to check the data. The population figures are from Stats NZ de facto population series until 1999 and estimated resident population from 1999 onwards. The migration figures are from Stats NZ also – series S2FEAUZ, S1GEAUZ, S2EETZ, S2EETA and S1EETA.

The February Migration statistics show an accleration in the rate at which people are fleeing New Zealand.

7,406 people left NZ for good last month.  That is a massive 1,850 people a week or 255 people a day.  Yep everyday one of those 767-300s which fly out internationally was full of people not planning to return.

Net migration to Australia has increased dramatically in the last four years. In the year to Feb 2004 net migration to Australia was only 10,623. For the year to Feb 2008 it was  29,586. Net migration to Australia has tripled in four years.

What is also interesting is not only are more New Zealanders leaving, less are returning. In the Feb 2004 year 39,483 NZers left – this has increased by 17,500 to 56,932 in the current year. But some NZers return. In Feb 2004 year 27,539 people returned.  In the year to Feb 2008 only 22,849 returned. The net migration of NZers (those with NZ citizenship) has increased in four years from 11,944 to 34,093.

I blogged yesterday about how Dover Samuels was heading overseas once he leaves Parliament.  Now I have been reminded that Marian Hobbs is off to the UK to teach, once she is off.  And it is widely rumoured Tim Barnett will also be heading to the UK.

So with around 12 Labour MPs retiring, as many as 25% of them will be fleeing NZ.  Is it any surprise so many other NZers are doing the same?

You know the exodus to Australia is getting bad when a sitting Labour MP announces he is off to Australia a few weeks after he gets out of Parliament.

When Samuels quits Parliament he will be replaced by Su’a William Sio. Sio, a trade unionist, is Deputy Mayor of Manukau City and Labour Candidate for Mangere. A profile says:

Su’a, who like Taito is Samoan and has strong links to the trade union movement, has endeared himself to a younger generation of Pacific Islanders by pushing strongly on youth issues and community initiatives. Politically he is thought to be conservative because of his strong church links. But he has also embraced the achievements of Pacific peoples in the arts, sports and music, and sharing a vision of a future where the impact of Pacific peoples in the wider communities will be felt at all levels, especially in business.

Di Yates is due to be pushed out in a few weeks also. Her replacement will be Brendon Burns – Labour’s Christchurch Central candidate.

Labour will be very pleased having two of their candidates able to access taxpayer funds to help with their campaigns legitimate parliamentary communications.

UPDATE: I thought Dover was one of those packing his bags early and resigning.  It seems he is staying put until the election.  In which case S’ua will be Yates replacement and Burns will have to wait for November or hope a List MP gets a really really bad cold