Kiwiblog

In my By the numbers blog at Stuff I look at the Fairfax poll result, and ask what Labour can do to change things in the next 17 weeks.

The answer from their Leader and Deputy Leader seems to be denial. First Annette:

”It’s another poll but it’s not what we are finding on the ground. What people say to us isn’t reflected in the poll.

No, but you obviously are only talking to your own supporters.

And she added: ”I notice that this poll was compared to 1996 when they said we got our worst ever result. Helen Clarkwent on to get to 28.1 per cent and we almost formed the government.”

I wondered who would be first to try this line. In 1996 the total centre-left vote was 54% as the Alliance and NZ First were on 15% or so each. In 2011 the total centre-left vote is around 37% and centre–right vote close to 60%.

And Phil Goff says:

Labour leader Phil Goff has dismissed a dire new poll result for his party, saying it doesn’t reflect support for Labour’s proposed capital gains tax.

That is true. Many people may support a CGT. But they don’t want Phil Goff as Prime Minister is the brutal truth, and if they have to choose, it is an easy choice.

An election based on today’s poll result would see Napier-based Labour MP Stuart Nash lose his list seat in parliament, but Mr Goff said that was not a concern.

“We’re not intending to get a result like that,” he said.

General Custer intended to win the battle also.

Mr Nash, who is also the party’s revenue spokesman, would “absolutely” retain his seat, and also had a chance of winning his Napier seat from National MP Chris Tremain, he said.

“I know he’s got a big majority to pull up but I wouldn’t rule him out to be able to win the electorate off National.”

Oh my God. I think he’s on drugs. Next he’ll claim they may win Helensville and Clutha-Southland.

Tags: Anette King, By the numbers, Labour, Napier, Phil Goff, Polls, Stuff

Only had a brief stay in Napier, but an enjoyable one.

This was the view from my room. It looked even better in the morning.

The nice thing about staying outside the main cities, is that the quality of the hotel rooms is so much nicer and for less money. This room cost just $150, which isn’t bad for your own spa pool and an ocean view.

I didn’t know where to stay, so chose Peeble Beach Motor Inn as it was the best ranked place on Trip Advisor. I can advise that the rating is deserved. Great views, great rooms and great service.

After Napier, I drove to Tauranga via Taupo. The Napier to Taupo road is one of my favourites with great sights, and beautiful forests. One scenic viewpoint is of the Waipunga Falls, above.

Tags: DPF, Napier

Had a breakfast coffee this morning in Napier with local MP Chris Tremain.Was amused that around two out of three people walking past stopped to greet him – one seat where the MP has no problems with recognition. Also noted that he seemed to know most of them by name also – one of the nice things about provincial seats.

Chris also showed me the accounts of the local Napier Kindergarten Association. He noted in a local release:

The Napier Kindergarten Association is to be highly congratulated, says Chris Tremain MP for Napier.

“On Monday evening I attended the Napier Kindergarten Association AGM where it was disclosed that despite a change in Government funding the Association would deliver more services for less money,” says Chris Tremain.

“This is an outstanding result and goes to the heart of the Government’s drive to get more value for taxpayer dollars.

“The Association have achieved this result without reducing the 100% teacher qualified rates, without increasing costs to parents and without any loss of jobs, while at the same time increasing access to more kids. In addition their sound management ensures that more kids in disadvantaged communities around the country will get more access to ECE. This is an outstanding effort and the Board and senior management are to be congratulated.

So what did the NKA do:

“The Napier Kindergarten Association are a highly professional group of people absolutely devoted to the education of our children. They were concerned about the Budget 2010 decision that they would only be funded to 80% Teacher Qualified from February, 2011.

“But the Annual Report shows that the Association has risen to the challenge by introducing Friday afternoon sessions, opening for 5 more days, diversifying Marewa and Taradale to 5 day licenses, and shaving some non-essential expenses. This has resulted in more ECE places in Napier/Wairoa for less money, an outstanding result.

“The 2010 accounts presented at the AGM showed that the Association budgeted for a $139,000 loss, but actually made a surplus of $328,000. On top of this their balance sheet shows investments of $1.85 million and equity of $1.4 million. Despite the funding changes, it was reported that the forecast for 2011 shows a deficit of just $70,000, which is significantly smaller than the budgeted deficit in 2010.”

So the NKA has made a significant surplus, has kept 100% qualified teachers, has not out fees up, and has delivered more services. They’re an example for the country.

And the contrast to this is what happened to ECE under Labour. Labour increased funding by 200%, yet the number of children in ECE increased by only 1%.

Tags: Chris Tremain, early childhood education, Napier

In the sadness of the Napier shootings, one can onoly find some light in the text message Lenny Holmwood sent a friend:

“Jan busted. 3 cops shot. Me leg. Can you feed Scrappy.”

Scrappy is his cat. There is something about Kiwis and our pets. I think more people were concerned about Fi the Police Dog, than whether Molenaar lived or not.Mind you Fi didn’t shoot three cops!

Tags: Jan Molenaar, Lenny Holmwood, Napier, Police

It looks like the Napier siege is over, with Jan Molenaar presumed dead at his own hand, and Police seen in his house this morning, after some blasts during the night. Herald has updates.

Even better news is that Police have recovered the body of Len Snee, and Police Dog Fi recovered alive.

Also stories are confirming that the civilian shot, probably saved the life of two Police officers by intervening. Giove that man a medal.

An interesting tidbit, is that Police Minister Judith Collin’s husband used to be an undercover officer himself. So she will know well the worry you can have about whether they will return home unarmed.

UPDATE: He is confirmed dead. Found dead in a bedroom just after midday.

Tags: Jan Molenaar, Napier

The Herald has coverage of the ongoing seige.

I am surprised the Police have not gone in yet, but sounds like the House is booby trapped, so that is no doubt a factor.

I recall some dark humour the last time an officer was shot in the Hawke’s Bay – in the mid 90s. The killer escaped and there was a manhunt. He was eventually caught up with, refused to surrender and shot dead.

At Parliament the normal group met every morning to work out what questions to ask to Ministers. A mate of mine known for his sense of humour chipped in with “Will the Government provide counselling to those officers who did not get a shot away”. It took a few seconds for people to realise the subtle change from the normal “WIll the Government provide counselling to the Officers who did the killing”, recognising that when it comes to shooting a cop killer, Officers don’t normally feel as much moral anguish as shooting someone else.

The fact this killer won’t even let Police recover the body of their fallen comrade (and has prevented them from any chance of saving his life) will have them in a silent fury – still professionaly focused on the job, but very determined not to let him kill anyone else.

I do like the report that Whale has of the killing of a cop killer in Florida:

The cop killer was shot 68 times with Police, with 110 rounsd fired at him. The Polk County Sheriff when questioned on why he was shot at 110 times, replied:

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd said he was not concerned by the number of shots fired.

“You have to understand, he had already shot and killed a deputy, he had already shot and killed a K-9 and he shot and injured another deputy,” Judd said by phone Saturday. “Quite frankly, we weren’t taking any chances.”

Ten SWAT officers surrounded Freeland on Friday as he hid beneath brush and a fallen tree in a rural area. Authorities say he raised the gun belonging to the deputy he had killed, prompting nine officers to fire.

“I suspect the only reason 110 rounds was all that was fired was that’s all the ammunition they had,”

Heh, and in NZ we debate whether cops should do a single or double tap!

Latest news from the Herald is here.

The Herald also has a profile of Len Snee. I’ve also had e-mails from people who know him, and he was hugely respected and liked. The Dom Post also profiles him, including comments from Pita Sharples who has known him for decades.

Tags: Len Snee, Napier, Police

Oh I do like that solid blue look. And in 2002 only a handful were blue.

Hunua is a new seat. The party vote is another 60:20 type solid seat. On the electorate vote Paul Hutchison narrowly beat Jordan Carter by 14,738 votes and Roger Douglas another 2,700 votes behind Jordan.

Waikato is 58% to 22% on the party vote. And Lindsay Tisch drove his majority from 7,000 to almost 12,000.

Coromandel went from 45% to 31% up to 51% to 26%. And Sandra Goudie scored a 13,400 majority for the seat she won in 2005.

The two Hamilton seats are no longer marginal weathervanes. Hamilton East went from a 9% party vote lead for National to a 19% lead. And David Bennett turned a 5,300 majority into one of over 8.000. Hamilton West saw an 11% lead in the party vote for National after being 2% behind in 2005. And Tim Macindoe turned his 1,100 loss in 2005 to a 1,500 victory in 2008.

Bay of Plenty is another 60:20 seat on the party vote. and Tony Ryall got a massive 16,500 majority up from 11,000 in 2005.

In 2005 in Tauranga, National had a 15% lead in the party vote. In 2008 the lead was 32%. Bob Clarkson beat Winston Peters by 730 votes in 2005. This time Simon Bridges beat him by 10,700. Simon will be happy to be the Member of Tauranga for some time.

Rotorua saw National lift the party vote from 43% to 51%, and Todd McClay scored a majority of almost 5,000 over a sitting Minister.

Taupo saw a party vote victory of 15% and Louise Upston beat Mark Burton by almost 6,000 votes. She ran a good campaign and for a big enough majority to make it safe for National. Burton got 2300 more votes than Labour so even harder for any future Labour candidate.  I also heard a rumour that Louise held the first meeting of her 2011 campaign committee at 8.15 am on Sunday morning

The East Coast had a 15% lead in the party vote (the graphic has it wrong) and on the electorate vote Anne Tolley turned a 2,500 majority into a 6,000 majority.

The growing seat of Napier saw National go from a 1% lead in the party vote to a 12% lead. And Chris Tremain drove his 3,300 victory over Russell Fairbrother in 2005 to a 8,400 margin. Remember this is a seat Labour held for all but three years from 1928 to 2005 and Tremain is building John Carter or Nick Smith type majorities as a brilliant local MP who owns his seat.

Over on the west coast, we have the huge Taranaki-King Country seat which is another of those lovely 60:20 seats.  And the 12,000 majority motors up to 14,500.

Finally we have New Plymouth. National was ahead on the party vote last time by 8% and this time it was 20%. And it was too much for Harry Duynhoven who lost the seat by 300 votes. In 2005 he held it by almost 5,000 votes and in 2002 his majority was a staggering 15,000. New candidate Jonathan Young will be watching the special votes though.

Labour will struggle to form a Government again, while so many seats have them getting just 1 in 5 party votes. Every seat in this region had at least an 11% gap in the party vote, with many having a 40% gap.

Tags: Anne Tolley, Bay of Plenty, Chris Tremain, Coromandel, David Bennett, East Coast, Election 2008, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Harry Duynhoven, Hunua, Jonathan Young, Jordan Carter, Lindsay Tisch, Louise Upston, Mark Burton, Napier, New Plymouth, Paul Hutchison, Roger Douglas, Rotorua, Russell Fairbrother, Sandra Goudie, Shane Ardern, Simon Bridges, Taranaki-King Country, Taupo, Tauranga, Tim Macindoe, Todd McClay, Tony Ryall, Waikato, Winston First

The Dom Post reports:

Labour MP Russell Fairbrother has been left red-faced after attacking his National Party rivals for erecting electoral hoardings “weeks early” – only to discover it was him that was late.

Mr Fairbrother, a list MP based in Napier, issued a media release yesterday accusing Napier MP Chris Tremain of putting up his hoardings six weeks early.

“The National Party is quick to accuse others … when they suspect they may have been in breach of the rules,” Mr Fairbrother said.

“But when it comes to their own election campaign, it is clear they couldn’t care less what the bylaw says – they just go ahead and do whatever suits them.” Labour hoardings were ready but would not be going up ahead of time.

Later, he said his campaign manager had rung the city council to check and had been told hoardings were allowed six weeks before the election.

The period is actually three months.

It is nice of Russell to be trying so hard to give Chris Tremain such a large majority.

Tags: Chris Tremain, dopey idiots, Napier, Russell Fairbrother

I was not the only one puzzled by Russell Fairbrother getting himself elected the president of Napier Grey Power. His election has been voided as politicians are ineligible to hold office.

But what is very curious is his response:

Mr Fairbrother said he believed the rules forbade political candidates, not MPs.

Fairbrother is of course the Labour Party candidate for Napier.

Now to be fair he has as much chance of winning back the seat he lost in 2005, as Britney Spears has to win Mother of the Year. But he realy should not concede the election until after the ballots are cast.

Tags: Grey Power, Napier, Russell Fairbrother