Kiwiblog

The Electoral Commission has found four items were illegal election advertisements, and has referred three of them to the Police for possible prosecution. The one that will get all the news is that Rodney Hide’s yellow jacket has been referred.

ACT told the Electoral Commission that Rodney rectified any problems by affixing an authorisation inside the jacket that can be shown to anyone who asks to see it, but this wasn’t deemed sufficient. So Rodney and his jacket may end up in the dock. That’s a shame as no doubt he’ll start weariing it again!

It does show of course how stupid the law is.

The Greens had some unauthorised fence signs in Palmerston North, but ruled the breach inconsequential.

National MP Nicky Wagner has been referred to the Police. It seems she distributed printouts of some powerpoint slides at a meeting and the final slide had tick Wagner and tick National. That made it an election advertisement. I think this is the first National breach of the law.

Finally a flyer for Roger Douglas put together by his local campaign team was not authorised by the ACT Party Secretary, so was also a breach of the EFA and has been referred to the Police.

I wonder if the law will be repealed before any prosecutions occur?

Tags: Electoral Commission, Electoral Finance Act, Greens, Nicky Wagner, Rodney Hide, Roger Douglas

I’ve previously blogged on whether specials may change any allocation of List MPs. The other question is whether any seats held by narrow majorities could change due to specials. The answer is yes, but unlikely.

The most marginal seat is New Plymouth – Jonathan Young got 48.6% of the vote to 47.6% for Harry Duynhoven. There were 32,029 valid votes. There are 2,351 known specials for the seat and we estimate 1/70th of the 32,000 overseas specials, so the numebr of specials is predicted to be 2,808.

The specials would have to be 6.1% better for Labour and worse for National for Harry to win. Or in other words they would need to go Harry’s way 53.7% to 42.5%.

In Auckland Central Nikki Kaye beat Judith Tizard by 1,181 votes. However there are a large 6,420 specials plus overseas votes. Niiki beat Judith 43.0% to 38.8%. Judith would need to win the specials 49.5% to 32.3% to close the gap.

In Christchurch Central, Nicky Wagner would need specials to go her way 53.3% to 32.2% – 12.1% better than on the day.

New Plymouth looks to be the only seat which could seriously change, and even that isn’t very likely.

Tags: Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Harry Duynhoven, Jonathan Young, Judith Tizard, New Plymouth, Nicky Wagner, Nikki Kaye, special votes

The birthplace of Labour, West Coast-Tasman went to National on the party vote by 11%. In 2005 the had a 3% margin. Damien O’Connor had a 1,500 majority and lost to Chris Auchinvole by 1,000 votes. Auchinvole (who once famously told Parliament you pronounce his name like it was Dock in Cole or a rude version that is easy to work out) wan a strong campaign with 160 hoardings and a large campaign team. O’Connor is first in on the Labour List, so if Michael Cullen retires he will be back as a List MP.

National finally won the party vote in Nelson. Labour won it by 6% in 2005 but National has a 5% lead in 2008. And no one was surprised that Nick retained his seat, although his majority did shrink from 9,500 to 7,900.

Kaikoura was marginal in 2002 and today the party vote was won by 23%, up from 9% in 2005. Colin King doubled his 4,700 mJority to 10,100.

Clayton Cosgrove did well to hold on in Waimakariri with 500 votes against the competent and hard working Kate Wilkinson. National won the party vote by 15%, up from a 0.3% margin in 2005. Cosgrove’s 2005 majority on new boundaries was 5,000.

Christchurch East remains red with 45% party vote Labour to 36% for National. However that 9% gap is a lot less than 24% in 2005. Dalziel’s 11,000 majority halved to 5,500 – still very safe. However National now has a List MP in the seat and will have hopes for when Lianne retires.

Christchurch Central was a great battle. Labour won the party vote by 1.4% and held the seat by 900 votes only. Nicky Wagner ran a very strong campaign but seats ending in Central are very hard to win for National. In 2005 the party vote margin was 22% and the majority for Barnett was 7,800.

Ilam has National 53% to 27% on the party vote. Gerry Brownlee also drives his majority from 5,500 to 10,800. This may finally stop Gerry from referring to his seat as marginal

Wigram saw Labour win the party vote by just 2%. In 2005 it was 12%. And Jim Anderton scored a fairly safe 4,500 majority despite new boundaries.

Finally we have Port Hills. National won the party vote by 16%, yet Ruth Dyson held the seat by 3,100. In 2005 Labour won the party vote by 12% so there was a massive swing there, yet Dyson’s majority shrank from just 3,600 to 3,100.

Tags: chris auchinvole, Christchurch Central, Christchurch East, Clayton Cosgrove, Colin King, Damien O'Connor, Gerry Brownlee, Ilam, Jim Anderton, Kaikoura, Kate Wilkinson, Lianne Dalziel, Nelson, Nick Smith, Nicky Wagner, Port Hills, Ruth Dyson, Waimakariri, West Coast-Tasman, Wigram

Some of the blogs on the left go feral whenever there is any comment on a female MP’s appearance or if they are called a female warlock. So I look forward to their comments on Trevor Mallard and Shane Jones.

We have Shane Jones on radio calling Katherine Rich Katherine Witch, but then clarifying that she isn’t a witch any more as she is leaving National’s Caucus.

And the Herald reports on Trevor Mallard:

In the House last week Mr Mallard couldn’t resist firing a barb in the direction of National’s female MPs, saying they looked very similar and it was hard to work out who was who.

“Some of us have a little bit of a problem in that a number of the women on the National Party benches look very similar,” Mr Mallard said.

“Certainly in looking at their hair colour, I can say it looks like they share their shampoos or hair dyes, and they do look somewhat similar.”

Yeah, and all those grey haired women in Labour look the same too. Well that is the equivalent of what Trevor is saying.

The blonde brigade includes Otago MP Jacqui Dean, Aoraki MP Jo Goodhew and list MP Nicky Wagner.

Indeed, they all are. At least Pansy Wong and Georgina te Heuheu are not blond or Trevor would be getting them confused also. Here are the three MPs:

Jacqui Dean

Jo Goodhew

Nicky Wagner

You really only have to meet them all once to tell them apart. There are those cunning subtle differences such as different faces.

And it seems that National’s production line of blonde women is far from finished, with three new candidates in this year’s election _ Nikki Kaye (Auckland Central), Louise Upston (Taupo) and Amy Adams (Selwyn) _ also fitting the bill.

Ms Upston and Ms Adams both brushed off Mr Mallard’s comments.

Both said they would prefer people judged them on their abilities and what they stood for, rather than their hair colour or appearance.

How novel. Some Labour MPs might agree with them.

But how will Trevor cope with three new MPs to tell apart. Well again it should not be difficult:

Amy Adams (Rakaia)

Nikki Kaye (Auckland Central)

Louise Upston (Taupo)

Now again, those subtle differences such as different faces, different heights, different hair styles may help Trevor cope.

Tags: Amy Adams, blondes, Jacqui Dean, Jo Goodhew, Katherine Rich, Louise Upston, Nicky Wagner, Nikki Kaye, Shane Jones, Trevor Mallard