Palmerston North tight

September 7th, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Manawatu Standard reports:

Two weeks out from election day the Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 401 eligible voters recorded 40 per cent support for Labour incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway and 39 per cent for his National challenger, Jono Naylor.

This is very close. The result means there is a 59% chance Lees-Galloway is ahead and a 41% chance Naylor is ahead.

Mayor Naylor for Palmerston North

May 13th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Palmerston North Mayor Jono Naylor is the sole nominee for the National Party candidacy for the Palmerston North electorate.

Naylor has just announced he will run against sitting Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway in September’s election, subject to confirmation by local party members.

He said after 13 years in local government, he felt he had more to offer the city and could be more effective as a member of parliament than as mayor.

The timing was right for his family, he said, and while he had not been a member of a political party until recently, he believed National’s values around personal responsibility, strong families and community aligned best with his own.

If successful, he would resign from the mayoralty, triggering a by-election.

He plans to continue as mayor during the campaign.

Naylor was first elected mayor in 2007, after serving six years as a city councillor.

He was re-elected last year, in the city’s first election under STV, when he received 51.7 per cent of voters’ first choices.

This makes Palmerston North very interesting. Iain Lees-Galloway holds it for Labour by 3,285 votes.

Naylor has been elected Mayor three times. In 2013 he got more than twice as many votes as the second placed candidate. He got 52% to their 23%. National must have a very reasonable chance of winning the seat.

Friction in Palmie

April 15th, 2011 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

Jonathon Howe at the Manawatu Standard reports:

The first shots have been fired in the battle to win Palmerston North at this year’s general election, with National candidate Leonie Hapeta accusing Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway of practising “nasty politics”.

Mr Lees-Galloway and about 15 supporters gathered outside Mrs Hapeta’s Hotel Coachman about 5pm on Monday – protesting against the Government’s plans to sell state-owned assets.

Mrs Hapeta said she felt attacked by the protesters, who held signs and waved at vehicles on both sides of Fitzherbert Ave.

“Having not met Iain since I became the candidate, I went out to introduce myself, and ask him why he was attacking my business, rather than holding the protest outside my campaign office,” she said.

A fair question.

But Mr Lees-Galloway, who is Labour’s Defence and Land Information spokesman, said the location was chosen by his Young Labour supporters because of the heavy traffic flow.

“There was no intention to target Leonie’s business and it hadn’t even crossed my mind,” he said.

“Yeah, when I got there I thought: `OK we’re outside the Coachman’ but it was no plan on my part.”

Just a coincidence then.

No poking fun at Palmie says local paper

April 10th, 2011 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The Manawatu Standard reports:

The Broadcasting Standards Authority has not upheld a complaint from the Manawatu Standard about a TV One Close Up item poking fun at Palmerston North.

The Broadcasting Standards Authority has not upheld a complaint from the Manawatu Standard about a TV One Close Up item poking fun at Palmerston North.

But Standard editor Michael Cummings says a message has been sent that the city won’t stand for being mocked.

Won’t stand for being mocked? Really? What are they going to do – fire cruise missiles at anyone who does.

To defy the no mocking edict, I repeat the words of the great John Cleese:

  •  If you ever do want to kill yourself, back lack the courage, I think a visit to Palmerston North will do the trick.
  • We stayed in a little motel. The weather was grotty. The theatre was a nasty shape. The audience was very strange to play to.
  •  And we had a thoroughly bloody miserable time there and we were so happy to get out.

The best solution I have heard for what to do with Palmerston North, is to turn it into a quaratine camp for gingas. That’s a real win-win.

To be fair, Palmie does provide some value. It allows people in New Plymouth and Wanganui to feel better about themselves.

A good idea from Palmie

March 17th, 2011 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

I always thought that the only good thing to come out from Palmerston North was Tom Scott, but I thooughly approve of this local initiative, as reported by the Manawatu Standard:

People in Christchurch have lost their homes, so people in Palmerston North are ditching their clothes.

More than 200 people were expected in The Square this evening in nothing but their underwear to do an honour lap for the people of Christchurch.

They will also be collecting for the Red Cross Earthquake Appeal and are appealing to the people of Palmerston North to strip for a good cause.

Well done Palmie people – nothing like getting your gear off for a good cause.

No 13s in Palmie

May 26th, 2009 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Palmerston North is till stuck in the 19th century it seems. The Dom Post reveals that Council policy when numbering sections is to skip No 13 – it goes from 11 to 15.

Decades ago some hotels did not have a 13th floor. But this is the first time I have heard of a ban on 13 still being current policy.

Not that one needed any additional reason not to live in Palmie, but now you have it.

The Lower North Island Seats

November 13th, 2008 at 4:32 am by David Farrar

Whanganui had a 3% lead in the party vote in 2005, and this expanded out to 22% in 2008. And the 3,500 majority for Borrows goes to 6,000.

Rangitikei sees a 25% lead in the party vote and Simon Power moves his majority from 9,000 to 11,000.

Tukituki has an 18% lead in the party vote, and a 2,600 majority for Craig Foss gets a boost thanks to Labour’s sacking of the local District Health Board to over 7,000.

Palmerston North has been held by Labour since 1978. The party vote was narrowly won by National but Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway held off Malcolm Plimmer by 1,000 votes.

Wairarapa has National 17% ahead on the party vote. And John Hayes turns the seat safe with a 2,900 majority converting to 6,300 in 2008.

Otaki was a huge battle. I’ve door knocked Otaki in the past and it is not natural National territory in the Horowhenua parts. So winning the party vote by 8% is good for National after trailling by 3% last time. Darren Hughes put up a huge fight to protect his sub 400 majority but Nathan Guy grabbed the seat by almost 1,500.

In Wellington, Labour does a lot better starting with Mana. Labour remains 6% ahead on the party vote but reduced from 18% in 2005. Winnie Laban’s 6,800 majority shrinks only slightly to 5.300.

Rimutaka was the last hope for NZ First. Labour won the party vote there in 2005 by 11% and in 2008 by 0.3%. On the electorate vote just as narrow with Labour’s Chris Hipkins pipping Richard Whiteside by 600 votes. Ron Mark got a credible 5,000 votes but stll trailed by 7,000.

Hutt South is home to Wainuiomata and Trevor Mallard. Trevor delivered a party vote margin for Labour of 4% and a 3,600 majority for himself. In 2005 the party vote margin was 14% and the personal majority 6,600 so some movement there.

Rongotai is now the home of the Labour Deputy Leader. But even before her ascension, Rongotai gave Labour a massive 11% margin on the party vote – 43% to 32% for National. And her personal 13,000 majority in 2005 was only slightly dented to just under 8,000. If that is her low tide mark, she’ll be happy.

Wellington Central saw in 2005 a party vote for National of just 33%, Labour 43% and Greens around 16%. In 2008 it was National 36%, Labour 34% and Greens around 20%. Marian Hobbs had a 5,800 majority and Stephen Franks cut that to 1,500 against new MP Grant Robertson with some Green party votes giving Robertson their electorate vote to keep Franks out.

Ohariu was assumed by almost everyone to be safe as houses for Peter Dunne. But it got close this time. First on the party vote, National beat Labour 43% to 40% in 2005. This time it was 47% to 33%. On the candidate vote Peter Dunne dropped from 45% to 33% making him vulnerable. National’s Katrina Shanks lifted her vote from 21% to 26% and Labour’s Charles Chauvel from 26% to 30%. The Greens candidate got 7% of the vote and may have ironically saved the seat for Dunne.

Electorate Polls

November 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged over on curiablog the results fo several recent electorate polls, including tonight’s one in Tauranga. The topline results are:

  • Tauranga – Bridges 26% ahead of Peters. Labour’s Pankhurst in 4th place at 5%. NZ First Party Vote down from 13% in 2005 to 6%.
  • Palmerston North – National candidate Malcolm Plimmer ahead by 3%
  • Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Parekura Horomia 5.4% ahead of Derek Fox
  • Nelson – Nick Smith 36% ahead of Maryan Street
  • West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor 3.5% ahead of Chris Auchinvole
  • Te Tai Tonga – Maori TV/TNS has Mahara Okeroa ahead of Rahui Katene by 10% – 49% to 39%. However Marae Digipoll has Okeroa bejind by 6% – 40% to 46%
  • Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta ahead of Angeline Greensill by 0.6%

All three Maori seats held by Labour are highly competitive. In two seats Labour is ahead and in the seat with conflcitign results, an averaging of them out would see Labour ahead. This means that the Maori Party may not have much of an overhang at all – in fact they could even gain a List MP if they got 4% or so party vote.

Palmerston North is the only Labour held seat that a public poll has shown National ahead in, so far. Due to boundary changes Taupo and Rotorua are technically National’s on paper.

Based on boundary changes and public polls (and note this is not a personal prediction) the electorate seats would be:

  1. National 35
  2. Labour 28
  3. Maori 4
  4. ACT 1
  5. United Future 1
  6. Progressive 1

Labour will in one sense be very pleased to be ahead in all three Maori seats. However this does lessen their chances of winning via overhang.

And the Tauranga result is superb. With only 5% voting Labour on the electorate vote anyway, it means no amount of tactical voting in Tauranga can put Winston back in that way.