Kiwiblog

Romney won Nevada easily with 48% of the vote. This is somewhat significant as conventional wisdom had been that he was having trouble getting out of the 30s, and hence when there is just one opponent left, they might beat him.

In the five primaries and caucuses to date Romney has averaged 41%, Gingrich 31%, Santorum 14% and Ron Paul 11%. Romney is estimated to have 97 delegates out of 131.  You need 1,144 to win.

The Maine caucuses are underway, but have only 24 delegates. Romney won then by 31% in 2008.

Colorado with 36 delegates is on the 7th. Romney won that by 42% in 2008 but the latest poll has him 14% ahead of Santorum. Minnesota with 37 delegates also on the 7th. Santorum is on 29%, Romney 27% and Gingrich 22% in latest polls there.

The third one on the 7th is Missouri. 36 delegates.

After that you have Arizona and Michigan on the 28th of February and Washington on 3rd of March. That is the last one before Super Tuesday on 6 March.

Arizona has Romney on 48% and Gingrich 24%. 29 delegates. Michigan has 30 delegates.Washington has 43.

Super Tuesday is not as big this year – down from 24 states to 10 states. However 437 delegates up for grabs. So you don’t need as much money as previously to stay in the race and buy advertising time.

CNN report:

According to the second round of CNN entrance polling of caucus-goers: Paul and Romney are tied at 24% followed by Santorum at 18%, Gingrich at 13%, Perry at 11%, Bachmann at 7% and Huntsman at 1%

Huntsman is not contesting Iowa. If Ron Paul beats Romney, that is big news. Ron Paul is the latest choice of the large “Anyone but Romney” following. But this is just an entrance poll.

Five Thirty Eight have done this very useful graphical representation of the GOP potential candidates (none have yet formally declared).

The size of each bubble is related to their current chances to win on Intrade. The colours are what region they come from, and the two axises are labelled.

I’ve had the view for a while that Pawlenty could win the nomination, as other candidates get knocked out, and this graph shows he is positioned quite well. Being an insider helps in some regards but if you look like a total insider, then grassroots support may be harder to get.

Romney’s major problem is he is seen as not conservative enough.

Haley Barbour is in a pretty good position also, and could do quite well. Time will tell.

Yahoo News reports:

A federal judge issued a worldwide injunction Tuesday immediately stopping enforcement of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, suspending the 17-year-old ban on openly gay U.S. troops.

U.S. District Judge Virginia Phillips’ landmark ruling also ordered the government to suspend and discontinue all pending discharge proceedings and investigations under the policy. …

the Log Cabin Republicans, a gay rights organization that filed the lawsuit in 2004 to stop the ban’s enforcement.

So who would have thought that Don’t Ask Don’t Tell would not be killed off by Obama (who had promised to do so), but instead by the Log Cabin Republicans.

This is unusual – Gallup has the Republicans in the lead in their generic congressional ballot. For the first time, more people say Republican 48% to Democrat 44%.

Why? The Independents. They are now splitting 52% Republican to 30% Democrat. This is what happens when you veer towards your base, and not the centre.

This graph shows the movement amongst Independents in the last five months.

Now it is a year to go until the elections, and lots can happen. But this poll is unusual, as Gallup explains:

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Significantly more people do identify as Democrats. So again this makes a lead in the generic congressional ballot quite significant.

Of course too early to start saying how many seats may be lost, as it will depend on regional trends.

Meghan McCain is the bloging daughter of John McCain. She gave a speech to the Log Cabin Republicans recently which I quite liked:

But the experience did reinforce what I learned on the campaign trail in some major ways. I’ll summarize them in three points:

1. Most of our nation wants our nation to succeed;
2. Most people are ready to move on to the future, not live in the past; and
3. Most of the old-school Republicans are scared shitless of that future.

Harsh but with a fair degree of truth.

I think we’re seeing a war brewing in the Republican Party. But it is not between us and Democrats. It is not between us and liberals. It is between the future and the past. I believe most people are ready to move on to that future.

Republicans using Twitter and Facebook isn’t going to miraculously make people think we’re cool again. Breaking free from obsolete positions and providing real solutions that don’t divide our nation further WILL.

I know many Republicans. The vast majority of them are not highly religious and care far more about a balanced budget and lower taxes than stem cell research or civil unions. However a small segment of the Republican Party has got to set too much of the agenda.

So tonight, I am proud to join you in challenging the mold and the notions of what being a Republican means. I am concerned about the environment. I love to wear black. I think government is best when it stays out of people’s lives and business as much as possible. I love punk rock. I believe in a strong national defense. I have a tattoo. I believe government should always be efficient and accountable. I have lots of gay friends. And yes, I am a Republican.

Not a bad proclamation. For the Republicans to be able to win back the House, Senate and Presidency, more people under40 need to be able to say they are a Republican.

Thanks to the hurricance, both Bush and Cheney miss the convention, and have an unassailable reason for doing so.

This is Bobby Jindal on the Tonight Show. Jindal is Governor of Louisiana, aged just 36, and is one of the possibilities to be McCain’s VP nominee.

Jindal’s parents were immigrants from India, and he started using the name Bobby after he watched the Brady Bunch when he was four!

Not sure if he will be VP, but I think he has a good future ahead of him.

John McCain is now the all but annointed Republican candidate for President. He has won in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island putting him over the 1,191 delegates needed.