The worm

November 21st, 2011 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Expect even more relentless repetition of upbeat language than usual from Prime Minister John Key and Labour leader Phil Goff as the worm returns for tonight’s leaders’ debate on TV3.

The debate will use the Roy Morgan Reactor, more commonly known as “the worm”, to measure the response of a studio audience of undecided voters selected for a balance of gender and age.

TV3 and Roy Morgan invite viewers who have an iPhone, Android mobile, iPad or tablet device to participate.

You can download the reactor or worm here.

Personally I think such things are gimmicks that distract people from the substance of the debate. My hope (a forlorn one probably) is that the media don’t make the worm the headline the next day, but actually you know listen to the debate themselves and form their own opinions as to the strengths and weaknesses of the the leaders arguments. The result of the worm should be a mention in the story, but not the core focus of it.

The fact that anyone can download the worm, means that the results may have nothing to do with the debate, and everything to do with people’s pre-extsing opinions. I really can’t see a lot of undecided voters caring enough to download the worm – the partisans will.

And even the studio audience of undecided voters can be less than balanced. They may be undecided between Labour and Greens, or between Maori and Mana. In my opinion they would be better to have the studio audience comprised of “swinging voters”, being voters who have voted (for example) for both a CR and a CL party in the last few elections. An undecided voter tends to be anti-Government because the Government is the known quantity, and they are deciding which of the alternatives to vote for.

So my point is, yes the worm may be a lot of fun. But please do not let the results of the worm be represented as a scientific poll, and do not let it replace your own judgement about the debate. Tune into TV3 and watch for yourself, rather than rely on second hand reports.

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Roy Morgan and NZ First

November 12th, 2011 at 11:39 am by David Farrar

There is no doubt NZ First has increased its support. It usually does when they get in the news, and ironically as much as Winston loves to pretend there is a media conspiracy against him, they in fact give him and NZ First far more publicity (but not scrutiny) than other parties polling at his level.

So they are up in the polls, but are they on the verge of 5% as Roy Morgan had them? No, or not yet, in my opinion.

Roy Morgan often has had NZ First higher than the other polls. They had them at 4.5% in May 2011, 5% in April 2011, 5.5% in Jan 2011, 4.5% in Sep 2010, 4.5% in Aug 2010, and prior to the last election had them twice at 6.5% in July and Aug 2008.

As always, I recommend looking at the average of the polls. This had them at 2.2% in October and rising to 3.1% in November. So as I said an increase, but still around 50,000 votes short of 5%.

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Invest in the polls

August 31st, 2009 at 4:58 pm by David Farrar

iPredict has six new stocks – polling stocks. And every fortnight they will pay out and new ones occur. Basically you can now invest in what you think the next Roy Morgan poll will say for National and Labour. The stocks are:

  1. National to fall
  2. National to not change
  3. National to rise
  4. Labour to fall
  5. Labour to not change
  6. Labour to rise

The current stocks are for what the Roy Morgan polls for the period 17 to 30 August will do in comparison to the results for the previous period of 2 to 16 August.  Normally I would expect the poll to 30 August results to come out late Friday, so you have four days to invest – and hopefully make a return.

So if you have a view about how National or how Labour has done in the last fortnight – you can now put your money where your mouth is.

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Post-honeymoon bliss?

June 21st, 2009 at 9:20 am by David Farrar

During late May and early June we had trumpeted that the honeymoon is over for the Government with the “week from hell” over Christine Rankin, Mt Albert mistakes, the Richard Worth affair, cancelled tax cuts etc.

Yet the Roy Morgan poll taken from 1 to 14 June finds no significant change in support for the Government and Opposition. National leads Labour by 19%. Also an increase in those saying NZ is heading in the right direction.

So if the honeymoon is over, I’d say National will be pretty happy with those post-honeymoon numbers.

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ISP Performance

April 17th, 2008 at 2:22 pm by David Farrar

Roy Morgan has survey results on ISP performance.

They don’t cover all ISPs, but of the ones they do, Actrix tops the satisfaction survey at 86% followed by Paradise at 76%. Down the bottom Ihug is on 64%, Woosh 60%, and Xtra 55%.

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