Kiwiblog

The Herald on Sunday editorial calls for the winds of change:

New Zealand First leader and Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has exceeded even his own characteristically pugnacious standards in the past week as he has continued to deflect questions about the cash donations made either to him or to his party. Promising much but delivering nothing in terms of clearing the air, he has engaged in behaviour which has been at times hard to distinguish from the paranoid and irrational.

Except that Peters is just acting – the whole thing is just a charade to him.

It is difficult not to see Peters’ actions as those of a man committing slow political suicide. His party’s poll ratings (which is to say his; there has never been a significant distinction) are averaging barely 3.5 per cent, a long way from the threshold that would ensure its return to Parliament (he seems beyond unlikely to recapture the Tauranga seat).

National’s Tauranga candidate Simon Bridges is a very happy man. Peters may or may not fool 5% of the electorate into believing his protests he is victim of a media conspiracy, but he will not fool 40% of Tauranga voters.

But what is much more likely is that his behaviour is both shrewdly calculated and tactically astute. Fighting for his political life, Peters is interested in appealing only to the small number of voters – most of them lapsed NZ First loyalists who are making eyes at National – who can push his party over the threshold. If he alienates and exasperates the rest of the country, generous wealthy donors, his political opponents and even his coalition partners in the process, that is neither here nor there.

Spot on. He is not worried about the 90% who will never vote for him. He is just trying to lock in half or more of the 10% who might vote for him.

Until now, the Prime Minister has adopted a legalistic wait-and-see approach, saying she must let matters run their course. It is notable that her endorsements of Peters, never warm, are becoming steadily cooler. But it is intolerable that she should allow one of her ministers the freedom to manipulate the democratic process.

Clark will be laughed at if she tries to campaign on transparency or accountability.

Up to now, she has had to consider the implications for the coalition’s stability of alienating Peters, but this week, as the last of the Budget legislation is passed, represents the last procedural opportunity for NZ First to bring the Government down and force an early election. Come Friday, the PM could, and should, sack the minister and expose him to the chill electoral winds that are blowing his way. It would be a good thing for the country if those winds, once and for all, blew him from the political stage.

She made pretty clear on Agenda this morning, she would not be doing that.

Bill Ralston sees an end:

You can never write off Winston Peters. That well worn cliche is trotted out by commentators at every election. Except, this election, I believe at last we can write off Peters. I suspect even he is no longer confident of ever again being “happy as the MP for Tauranga” and at age 63, he is wistfully eyeing the prospect of retirement from politics in October.

I would just make the point that not winning Tauranga does not mean retirement for Peters if his party makes 5%.

National has just selected its candidate for Tauranga, Simon Bridges, the party’s electorate chairman and a Crown prosecutor. He is half Peters’ age.

Bridges’ youth neatly underlines the fact that Peters is a political dinosaur, a throw-back to the era of his mentor and role model, Rob Muldoon. Bridges was barely born when Muldoon was Prime Minister and Winston was first on the hustings.

That National is willing to put up someone more than just a lame stooge means it is serious about winning the electorate and it is confident Peters and New Zealand First are dog tucker.

National certainly is serious about winning the electorate. The outcome is of course up to the voters.

There is an air of desperation about the New Zealand First leader these days, as if he senses his old magic is no longer working. He and his party have repeatedly tried to pull the race card, particularly on immigration, but for once have found little response from the electorate.

However, it does not stop Peters having a knee-jerk reaction any time anyone mentions foreigners in a positive way.

Indeed.

Peters seems unable to comprehend the statistics that show migrants have a higher rate of employment, higher incomes, pay more tax and are less likely to go to prison or get a social services benefit than the average Kiwi.

His anti-Asian rhetoric, which was so politically advantageous in the 1990s, is increasingly falling on deaf ears. Over the past couple of decades, New Zealanders have come into much greater contact with their Asian neighbours and no longer fear them.

This is true, but remember unlike the big parties Peters is not worried by how much he offends 90% of NZ. He is targeting just 10% and needs half of them.

The Herald reports of the selection of Simon Bridges as National candidate for Tauranga last night:

National’s new Tauranga candidate wants to avoid getting personal in his election campaign.

Simon Bridges, who won selection last night, told the Weekend Herald he did not want a battle with his likely foe, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

“I want to earn votes from Tauranga by presenting a positive, ambitious case, not getting into a slanging match,” Mr Bridges said. …

“I think people want more dignity from their politicians, and I’m not going to be playing in the gutter.”

Mr Bridges said Tauranga residents had voted for change three years ago when they elected Mr Clarkson after 21 years of Mr Peters as their MP.

“People are tired of the politics of the past. Tauranga is now a modern and vibrant city and it wants an MP to match.”

Indeed. It is about the future vs the past.

Rising living costs were a major issue for young families and seniors in his electorate, and Tauranga residents had told him they wanted firm action on law and order.

Mr Bridges said he had a strong understanding of the latter after working as a Crown prosecutor in the city for the past few years.

He holds a law and arts degree from the University of Auckland, and a Masters in Law from Oxford University.

He plans to resign from his job and work full time on his campaign.

Winston Peters is on Agenda tomorrow and he may confirm his candidacy then.

Audrey Young blogs on Tauranga also:

In Simon Bridges, Peters faces a young, new face, someone who more represents the sort of change National is projecting nationally through leader John Key.

That will be a tougher contest for Peters. The mood for change has stubbornly persisted in the polls for almost two years in nationwide polls and there are perhaps as few as four months to go to the election.

Congratulations to Simon Bridges who won a four way contest tonight to be National’s candidate for Tauranga. He won on the first ballot which is a good sign of the respect he holds.

Simon will be an excellent candidate, and work hard for Tauranga.

I’ve been busy in Auckland all day, so only now got online to blog the announcement by Bob Clarkson that he has decided not to stand for Tauranga again.

I think NZ owes Bob a great deal of thanks for getting Winston out of Tauranga. Labour should thank him also because Winston would have caused far more trouble if he still held his seat and knew no matter what he and NZ First was safe. Having lost Tauranga, he has to worry about making 5% or face oblivion, so this has lessened the chance he’ll try and bring the Government down.

Simon Bridges has announced he is putting himself as the new candidate. Simon is one of the local Crown prosecutors, and in his own words:

Mr Bridges has been a prominent criminal lawyer in Tauranga for the past several years, specialising in jury trials.

Mr Bridges was educated in Law and Arts at the University of Auckland before completing a Masters in Law at Oxford University. He has been a long term National Party member and has held positions at senior levels in the Party. He lives in Mount Maunganui and is married to Natalie.

Simon is around 30 and highly respected and liked within National. He would be a long-term MP for Tauranga, rather than someone wanting just one final term before he becomes Ambassador to somewhere.

This gives Winston a dilemma. He has not yet announced where he is standing yet. Just as he hasn’t yet paid back the $158,000. Or explained where the money Dail Jones referred to last year came from. Or filed his donations return which was due on 30 April. But Winston claims Bob used his wealth to defeat him last election. Never mind a Court disagreed.

How bad a look will it be, for Winston to stand against Simon Bridges and lose? There would be no way to sugar coat that one.

It will be an interesting seat to watch. Simon may face others wanting the National nomination – but I would be surprised if he is not the candidate. He has been seen as a future MP since the conference in the late 90s where he stood for Youth Vice-President and gave a speech which one senior Minister labelled the best speech he had ever heard at a conference. People still talk about that speech today.