Kiwiblog

I’ve blogged previously that I think David Shearer is the best contender for the Labour leadership, based on his back-story, his freshness and his moderation. However he is untested, and a more risky prospect than David Cunliffe. People need to see if Shearer can handle the pressure of being Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister.

I have a high regard for David Cunliffe also. When David was Minister of ICT and Communications I had a very constructive relationship with him. He never refused to deal with me, despite my National background, and I think his reforms were excellent. He was obviously one of those Ministers who could drive a policy agenda through a ministry, not one of those who just sits back and administers what the Ministry tells them to do.

Anyway the point of the post is the disparate treatment both Davids got on The Nation. First up was David Shearer. His questions were basically:

• When did you write you speech?
• Was it a road to Damascus moment?
• When did you decide to run?
• Did you discuss running with anyone previously?
• Are you surprised you are now the front runner?
• Does Goff support you?
• Are you happy with Labour’s policies?
• Will you sacrifice some in caucus even if they support you?
• Can you work with Cunliffe?
• What would you say to vacillating caucus members to get them to vote for you?

There wasn’t one tough question there. It was basically just an opportunity to talk about himself. Now let us contrast that with the questions to David Cunliffe:

• Why aren’t you more popular in the Labour caucus?
• Then four further questions on whether Cunliffe is unpopular!
• Do you take any responsibility for the fact that Phil Goff didn’t have the numbers?
• Four further questions on whether Cunliffe was to blame or trying to get him to knife Goff such as “So would you be a better campaigner than Phil Goff was?”
• Okay are you committed to the platform that Phil Goff presented and you presented at the last election?
• Okay do you rework them with a mind to making them more palatable to centre voters, or left voters?
• And you say you’re a diplomat.  Have a look at this from the campaign in Avondale. (plays video and three follow up questions)
• Do you consider if you win this leadership battle, that your primary role in let’s say your first 100 days as leader, is to rebuild and reform the Labour Party or beat John Key?

Now look stuff like the video is fair game, but overall I think the two interviews were unbalanced. Shearer didn’t get a single tough question, while Cunliffe had most of his questions as tough questions, including multiple supplementaries on a topic to try and get him to say something damning.

I doubt this was a deliberate tactic of Sean or The Nation. Because Shearer has not held senior rank within Labour, there is not so much to question him about. But the media do have a responsibility not just to let Shearer be annointed by acclamation as he is a nice guy, but to actually put him under pressure and see if he copes.

As I said at the beginning, I think Shearer is most likely to get a better election result for Labour, but that is subject to him showing his mettle.

UPDATE: Pleased to report that Q&A was much more balanced, and sadly Shearer performed very badly. If he has another performance like that on television, momentum will flow to Cunliffe. I’d advise people to watch the show and see for themselves.

Labour Party Leadership Special
We will have David Parker, David Cunliffe and David Shearer with Sean Plunket. They will each be interviewed individually and then join together for a debate on Labour’s future.
We will also have an interview with former British Labour Party front bencher and 1987 Labour campaign director and former University of Waikato Vice Chancellor, Bryan Gould, on his thoughts on the way ahead for Labour.
There may be additions to this lineup which we will advise if they happen!

The Sunday replay at 8 am now includes a special extended media panel

Broadcast on TV3 Saturday 10.30 am, and repeated on Sunday 8 am

After the balloon and streamers of Saturday night, Sean Plunket, Duncan Garner and Colin James headline our post election interviews and analysis. We’ll have leading figures from all the parties ready to answer the big questions — What Next? Who will form the Government? Can Phil Goff hang on as Leader of the Labour Party? Has John Key emerged from the campaign unscathed? etc etc

TWO HOUR POST ELECTION SPECIAL TV3 27/11/11 8 am

Almost everyone is aware of The Press debate two weeks ago when Phil Goff couldn’t answer John Key’s question about how much revenue their proposed CGT will bring in the first year it starts, and what year that is. The result was a week of bad headlines for Goff, and serious damage to Labour’s economic credibility.

So after that fiasco, you would have thought that the first thing a semi-competent party leader would do is to make sure they can answer that question without hesitation. But amazingly Phil Goff couldn’t answer it for a second time!

On The Nation yesterday:

Duncan        One of the crucial questions that John Key asked you that night was around capital gains, and he asked you in your first year what sort of money do you raise in the first year, and you didn’t know.

Phil              Well the figures are out there, the figures are it’ll raise 26 billion in 16 years.  And what I said, let me finish this, it starts slowly, it starts with you know 20 – 50 million or whatever, it gets up to half a billion very quickly, gets up to a billion in about eight years, and then it hits about three billion.

Duncan        But do you know in the first year what it raises.

Phil              Yeah I’ve got it right here…

Duncan        No – do you know without looking?   It’s 68 billion (DPF: meant to be million)

So even after a week of ridicule over not knowing his numbers, Phil Goff still couldn’t answer, without looking it up, that Labour’s CGT will only bring in $68m in its first year.

Now of course no party leader will know every number, but again after what happened last week, this is one number that should have been tattooed.

But the problems for Goff don’t stop there. In a fit of loyalty Trevor Mallard in an online chat said that as campaign manager he takes full responsibility for Goff not being prepared for The Press debate. But the two Davids have told quite a different story to The Nation:

Here’s what David Cunliffe said:

N: Should he not have known those numbers for a debate like that?

DC: Well I’m sure he does, and did, but you never know the bounce of the ball on the day and what comes to mind but that’s really a question you should address to him

N: So , did he know the numbers did you know the numbers then?

DC: Well some of those questions were numbers that had been previously released by our tax package… but it’s sometimes it depends about how the question is framed at the time but I’m not going to second guess – Phil’s done a great job on this campaign….

So Cunliffe is saying that Goff did know and that basically he just stuffed up.

And Parker:

N: When was the fiscal strategy ready? When did you know it?

DP: Well it had been prepared in advance of our savings forum. Phil had determined we would release the strategy two days after debate.

N: Had he seen the numbers

N: Yes he was of course aware of the numbers, he was aware of the numbers when we made decision to increase kiwisaver compulsory — our fiscal numbers were worked out at that stage. The exact date of release was the Friday, the press debate was the prior Wednesday, the two day gap between that I don’t know there’s a lot in that.

Parker basically confirms that the numbers didn’t change in those two days, that Goff could have answered the question on the Wednesday if he had been on top of it.

UPCOMING SATURDAY 19/11/11 1030 — SUNDAY EDITION 20/11/11 0800 — TV3
1. Colin James reviews the week on the campaign trail
2. Natasha Smith goes campaigning with those who might succeed Phil Goff — David Cunliffe, David Parker, Shane Jones and David Shearer.
3. Phil Goff with Duncan Garner.
4. Narelle Suisted inside the Green Campaign — how radical are they?
5. Sean Plunket with Winston Peters.
6. The Sunday Media Panel will (as usual) be Bill Ralston and Brian Edwards.

Final lineup:
1. Bill English on the economic crisis and poverty in NZ.
2. Narelle Suisted reports on John Key’s photo opportunities — the campaign the Nats want you to see and then there’s the Ministers they prefer keep a much lower profile. We track them down with mixed results.
3. Gerry Brownlee and Clayton Cosgrove on Christchurch and the campaign.
4. Bill Ralston and Brian Edwards on the week non the campaign trail.

UPCOMING SATURDAY 12/11/11 1030 – SUNDAY EDITION 13/11/11 0800 – TV3

1. Sean Plunket and State Services Minister Tony Ryall on the Government’s plans to freeze spending on core state services.
2. Natasha Smith on the road with Phil Goff — what Labour’s heartland think of their leader.
3. David Cunliffe, Steven Joyce and Duncan Garner on Labour’s tax and spend plans.
4. Sunday Edition: Brian Edwards and Bill Ralston look back at the week’s media coverage of the campaign.

Saturday 5/11/11 – Sunday Edition 6/11/11 0830 – TV3

Our apologies over the non appearance of our show last Sunday. We are definitely back this weekend. BUT we are taking the following weekend (22/23 October) off because we figure no one will be interested in current affairs on Rugby World Cup finals weekend. Besides that it’s too expensive to fly everybody around.We will then return on October 29 with the first of our election programmes.
However for this weekend (which will be Sean on his own as Duncan is off)
1. We will have a full backgrounder on the grounding of the Rena with particular focus on failings in the Governments preparation for major oil spills.
2. Sean will be live with Environment Minister Nick Smith on the implications of the Rena grounding.
3. Our special “minor parties” Waitangi Debate featuring Metiria Turei, Hone Harawira and Rahui Katene but not Dr Don Brash who has pulled or Peter Dunne who was never interested in coming anyway.
4. Our Sunday Edition media panel will include Spiro Zavos rugby columnist from the Sydney Morning Herald and the Roar website.

UPCOMING SATURDAY 15/10/11 — SUNDAY EDITION 16/10/11 0830 — TV3

This week with England playing Scotland at Eden Park on Saturday — a Scottish flavour to our Sunday Edition Panel!

But first — with the Warriors playing the NRL Grand Final we go to their South Auckland heartland to find out what really makes this much multi-ethnic impoverished part of NZ tick. Narelle Suisted talks about the reality of life in South Auckland and their hopes and dreams for the future with Year 13 from Otahuhu College. This is a fascinating insight into a part of Auckland the rest of NZ knows little about.
We follow that up with an interview with Housing Minister Phil Heatley — over a third of South Aucklanders live in Housing New Zealand houses.

And finally we look back at the colourful career of retiring Green MP Sue Kedgley — from beauty queen to environmental activist. Sean Plunket will have an extended interview with Sue.
And the panel — R G R (“Jock”) Anderson (NBR); David Ferguson (The Scotsman).

UPCOMING SATURDAY 01/10/11 1030 – SUNDAY EDITION 2/10/11 0830 – TV3

This week on The Nation

A PROGRAMME WITH A STRONG FRENCH INFLUENCE —-
1. Duncan Garner and the sharemarket meltdown: Nick Tuffley, ASB Chief Economist; Camel Fisher, Managing Director, Fisher Funds (plus possible additions).
2. French Ambassador, Francis Etienne with Sean on our “difficult” relationship.
3. Natasha Smith looks back the colourful career of ACT MP, Rodney Hide.
4. Sean Plunket in depth with Rodney Hide
5. Sunday Edition Panel: Nicolas Espitalier, Sud Ouest newspaper (France); Lynn McConnell, Sportal website and historian.

SATURDAY 23/09/11 1030 — SUNDAY EDITION 24/09/11 0830 — TV3

1. We investigate the debacle last Friday on Auckland’s rail system. We go back two years and count down the series of failures that culminated in last Friday’s chaos.
2. Gerry Brownlee is live with Sean on his return from meeting the reinsurance industry in Monte Carlo and what the outlook is for insurance premiums.
3. Danielle Ross investigates the background to this week’s decision to build the national velodrome in Cambridge and asks whether the huge amount of money we have spent on sporting facilities will make any economic return.
4. Sean interviews the President of the Irish Rugby Union, John Hussey, on why so many Irish rugby supporters have followed their team to NZ for the World Cup.
5. The Sunday Edition Media Panel is Matt Nippert (NBR) and Dennis Shanahan (Political Editor, The Australian).

Saturday 17 /09/11 at 10.30, repeated on Sunday 18/09/11 at 8.30 am on TV3
0830 — TV3

The Pacific and the World Cup
1. Narelle Suisted’s report on the Pacific Forum including exclusive interviews with the Foreign Minister of the Solomon Islands, Nauru and the Palestinian and Luxembourg delegations —Why does the Pacific matter and what next for Fiji.
2. Sean Plunket is with Foreign Minister Murray McCully on the Pacific and New Zealand then the Minister transforms himself into Rugby World Cup Minister and we talk about the only thing everyone else is talking about and what’s really in it for NZ.
3. The Sunday Edition Media Panel is Spiro Zavos (ex Muldoon biographer, journalist on The Dominion, The Sydney Morning Herald and author of Awa Press’s “How to Watch Rugby”) and Dave Robie from AUT’s Pacific Media Centre.

Screening on 10/09/11 – 1030  and 11/09/11 – 0830 – TV3

1. Hekia Parata on the Government’s Energy Strategy and how much oil we really have. Where is it? What about the environment?
2. Controversial businessman and philanthropist Owen Glenn in an extended interview with Sean Plunket.
3. On the road with Don Brash. What sort of reception (or lack of one) is he getting in provincial New Zealand?

Saturday 2/09/11 1030 – Sunday Edition 3/09/11 0830 – TV3

How Labour’s back bench views the world. Carmel Sepuloni, Carol Beaumont and Stewart Nash with Duncan on Labour’s message.Plus Sean with an extended in depth interview with historian James Belich on what it means to be a New Zealander.

Broadcast on TV 3, Saturday 27/08/2011 - 1030, Sunday Edition 28/08/11 0830

 

The Nation this week:

Anne Tolley – Education Minister – as she prepares to face the NZEI conference on educating our kids so they can actually get jobs.

We investigate Asian politics in New Zealand. How important politically is the now sizeable Asian community?

Sunday Edition Panel is David Kemeys (Sun Star Times Editor) and Kim Gillespie (Editor, Rotorua Daily Post)

SATURDAY 20/08/11 1030 – SUNDAY EDITION 21/08/11 0830 – TV3

Last week we ran two items which raised big questions —- Andrew Thorburn, CEO of the BNZ and then coverage of the media briefing by the Chinese Embassy.  This week we will be taking the points made in those interviews up with Prime Minister John Key. We will also have the profile of Graham Henry we promised for last week. Colin James will be at the National Party conference and the Sunday Edition panel will be John Pagani and Karyn Scherer.

Saturday 13/08/11 1030 — Sunday Edition 14/08/11 0830 — TV3

The Nation lineup this week:

The international financial crisis:

1. Andrew Thorburn CEO, BNZ.
2. Cheng Lei, Political Counsellor, Chinese embassy, Wellington.
3. Shamubeel Eaqub, Principal Economist, NZIER, Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist ASB Securities.

Climate Change

1. Lord Monckton
2. Glenn McGregor, Director, University of Auckland Environment School.

Plus a tape report on NZ First and why they believe revolution is at hand.

Sean Plunket with:

1. Judith Tizard (former Auckland Central MP) on the way ahead for Labour.
2. An extended interview with Simon Power on his career, his reforms, his ideas and his future.
3. Ian Duncan Smith (British Work and Pensions Minister) on welfare reform.
4. Sunday Edition Panel — David Kemeys (Sun Star Times editor), Michael Cummings (Manawatu Standard editor)

30/07/2011 10.30 am, Sunday Repeat 31/07/2011 8.00 am - TV3

Coming up this weekend

Sean is away (school holidays) so Rachel Smalley is filling in.

1. Duncan live in Washington and fresh from the PM’s meeting with President Obama. Duncan will also have a full report on the debt/spending crisis in Washington and background the alleged Israeli spy incident.
2. Don Brash with Rachel on what ACT wants from National
3. Natasha’s Smith’s investigation into political  lobbying and conflicts of interest.
4. Retired Defence Secretary and Head of the PM’s Department, Gerald Hensley, on the implications of Key’s visit to Washington.

The panel is Pattrick
Smellier (BusinessWire) and Simon Wilson (Metro)

I thought Metiria Turei handled her interview on The Nation very well – defending the Greens from Sue Bradford’s claims they have swing to the right (if only).

Turei used a line, which I have advocated in the past they should use, that they can work constructively with both National and Labour and regardless of who forms the Government, they’ll aim to make it a greener Government. It’s a good message which could well appeal to some swininging voters who may be saying they want John Key as Prime Minister but would like the Government to do more on environmental issues.

Again no one should think that if they have a choice, the Greens won’t install a Labour-led Government. They will, unless Labour totally alienate them.

But given the probability of at least a second term of a National-led Government, it is smart to portray yourselves as able to have influence, rather than just opposition.

The Nation’s lineup:

We will profile John Key then Sean Plunket will be live with the PM for half an hour — the interview will focus on John Key the person, what drives him, what his deep down beliefs are and what sort of legacy he wants to leave behind him.

Also: The lighter side of politics with retiring Civil Defence Minister and long time party whip and after dinner wit, JOHN CARTER.

The Key interview could be very interesting, and the Carter one likely to be hilarious.

Infonews reports:

Highly regarded current affairs programmes Q+A and The Nation will return to New Zealand television screens next year, with funding from NZ On Air.

The funding agency announced today it will continue supporting the two programmes through its special Platinum Fund.

NZ On Air chief executive Jane Wrightson said TVNZ will receive $798,000 to produce 38 episodes of Q+A. Front Page Ltd will receive $972,000 to produce 36 episodes of The Nation for TV3.

“Both series provide an important point of difference for television current affairs,” Ms Wrightson said. “Public funding allows such programmes to exist outside the demands of commercial prime time. Each programme provides a special opportunity for thoughtful interviews with leading news makers, accompanied by insightful analysis.”

I’m glad NZ on Air is keeping them both going. In an election year especially we need shows like them.

No transcript yet but a really fascinating interview with Hone Harawira on The Nation on Tv3. Hone sometimes often gives an impression that he mouths off without thinking, but the interview showed that a lot of what he does is more calculated. He talks about his role being to push the limits, and how the MP needs to differentiate itself from National rather than abandon them.

He also showed some political deftness at not giving straight answers (at one point Duncan had to remind him that it is his role to ask the questions), but he did make one thing very clear. He said that if Pita Sharples retires as co-leader, then he has recommended that Te Ururoa Flavell become the new co-leader. Flavell is gaining a growing reputation as an effective MP, and I agree he is the natural successor to Sharples.

Harawira also showed some quite good insight into how a leader needs to be diplomatic and able to compromise, and that those are not his skills.

This was shown by him talking about his comments on how he would be uncomfortable with his daughters dating Pakeha, and he went on to say that one of them is dating a Maori boy at the moment, and how he doesn’t approve of that. I don’t recall the exact words but Duncan asked him if he thought his daughter’s boyfriend was no good, and Hone replied “Yeah that’s right”. Can’t imagine his daughter will be thrilled to have Dad diss the boyfriend on TV!

For  those who missed it today, would be worth watching it tomorrow.

The transcript is interesting:

DUNCAN My guest this morning is former Labour MP Chris Carter, now Independent.  Chris thanks for joining us this morning.

CHRIS CARTER – Fmr Labour MP

Duncan it’s been a pleasure.  We’ve had our differences but I’m pleased to be here.

DUNCAN And I’m glad we’re shaking hands, so the country can see that.

Had almost forgotten their little run in.

DUNCAN Who should be leading the party?

CHRIS So when people see a party stuck, making no traction, log jammed if you like, they start to ask what can change it.  Now policies maybe, but in the end it comes down to the leader, cos the leader’s the public face.

DUNCAN Who should be leading the party?

CHRIS Now there are three reasons why people are unhappy with Phil.  Can I go through those?

DUNCAN I’d like you to answer the question.  Who do you think should be leading that party if Phil Goff shouldn’t be?

CHRIS I’d like to respond to that Duncan by first of all saying that’s for the caucus to decide, and I’m no longer a member of that caucus.  I’d like to say secondly that there are at least four or five people in there that have got the qualities, the experience, the energy and the determination that could do a good job as leader.

DUNCAN Name them, name them.

CHRIS I’m not going to name any of them, but what I’m saying is that I’m confident that that Labour caucus could provide a number of people who could do a different job to Phil.

At this point various Labour MPs sighed in relief that Chris did not name them, as doing so would be a kiss of death to them.

The fact is that as unlikely as it is that Phil Goff will become Prime Minister in 2011, it is even more unlikely that another Labour MP will do any better. And any future leader is better to not become Leader now, so their brand is fresh for the 2014 election.

Now why are people unhappy with Phil?  You know I’ve said he’s a decent guy, he is a  good guy, he’s a hard worker and he wants Labour to win, but there’s three reasons why he’s not going to.  First of all there’s the perception that he’s from the 80s and that it’s just not working.  So we’ve had 18 months it’s not working, people are saying if it’s not working we need to change the leader.  Secondly he fudges on issues.  He fudged on the GST issue, he fudged on the four weeks holiday, and he fudged on tackling Paul Henry actually, and all of that really annoyed people.

Here Carter’s analysis is basically correct. It is very unlikely that NZ will elect someone who entered Parliament under Muldoon, as the new future focused Prime Minister.

And absolutely there is disquiet amongst the left MPs over what Goff has said and done on stuff like four weeks leave and Paul Henry. They feel he can not be relied on. That is why he will not survive long after 2011, but he will survive until then.

CHRIS I’m going to appear before the Council, I’m going to make a strong case about yes I stuffed up, yes I did an inappropriate thing, but hey Richard Prebble called David Lange mentally unbalanced, you know Phil Goff and Annette King tried to roll Helen Clark, none of them were kicked out, so …

A fair point, but the difference is how they went about it. You do not get expelled for trying to roll your leader. You do get expelled for sending anonymous letters to the press gallery. Mind you I think they will suspend not expel him.

DUNCAN And when did you last speak to Helen Clark and what did she say to you about this departure?

CHRIS I spoke with her yesterday on the phone, actually she rang me up from New York and she’d heard about the book.  I hadn’t spoken to her for some weeks, and she sent me this text saying what’s this about a book?  And so she rang me up to discuss about the book and we talked about resources and the way I’d do the book.

DUNCAN She’s going to help you write it?

CHRIS No she’s not gonna help me write it, but she’ll no doubt be a critic of it, but I’d expect no less from her.

I suspect Chris Carter’s book, when it comes to Helen Clark, will make the Brian Edwards biography look like a savage character assassination

So what am I gonna do, well I’m thinking I’m really interested in journalism, I might become a journalist.

I am sure he could get a job at Radio New Zealand. Or maybe TVNZ need a new Breakfast host.

DR BRIAN EDWARDS – Media Consultant and Commentator

Well I want to ask you a couple of things.  I wonder first of all whether you think you deserved all the odium and contempt that was heaped on you about the travel business? That’s the first thing.

CHRIS Absolutely not.

BRIAN Oh okay.  And the second thing I want to know is if Phil Goff hadn’t forced you into what was in the end quite a humiliating performance in front of all the journalists, your second apology if you like, would any of this happened?

CHRIS Probably not Brian because I would not have felt used as a scapegoat.

What a smart question from Brian Edwards. He got Chris Carter to admit that none of this would have happened if Goff had not demoted him for his excessive travel.

John Ansell is on The National today at 11 am, talking about the recent woes in ACT. This should be very interesting!