Kiwiblog

They have just had the annual Radio and Television Correspondents’ Association Dinner in the US. These are hilarious, and I think there is something great about the tradition of having the most powerful person in the world having to get up and lampoon himself.

You can see the video above, or read this article for some of the best lines.

Also worth viewing is when the entertainers got Karl Rove up on stage to take part in rapping as “MC Rove”.

There is no group of people more hostile to non left wing values than university faculties throughout the United States. Intolerance of those who do not conform is legendary.

This was shown recently in Florida, when the University of Florida Senate turned down an honorary degree for former Governor Jeb Bush. Now before people start raving, Jeb Bush is a very different person to George Bush. He was hugely popular in Florida (a state with more Democrats than Republicans in it) for his two terms, and had delivered significant extra funding to the University such as $20 million to help them (ironically) attract top faculty and new research centres. Never before had an honorary degree been turned down. It was unprecedented and done purely because Jeb was a Republican.

But there is a good ending to all this. Ashamed at the partisan behaviour of their Professors, the Student Senate unanimously passed a resolution honoring Jeb Bush’s contributions to the university.

Isn’t that great? The professors show their narrow mindedness, while the students, without dissent, recognise that this is not an issue for partisan politics, and showed the maturity their professors lacked. Some quotes:

In an interview after the meeting, Student Body Vice President Arturo Armand said, “I think it shows a lot that the Senate unanimously approved the resolution. We wanted to recognize public service. Forget politics. Forget everything else. We want to recognize those who help out the University of Florida.”

No that’s not (necessarily) my opinion, but the opinion of Helen Clark, nicely recorded for posterity’s sake by Whale Oil.

So no more portraying him as a dumb Texan people – Helen has spoken – he is both a smart man and a clever man.

To be fair, she may have been comparing him to her Caucus

Phil U at Whoar blogged that John Edwards has pulled out of the 2008 presidential election because his wife has incurable cancer.

Now the story turned out to be wrong. Sadly Elizabeth Edwards does have inoperable cancer, but Edwards is not stopping his campaign. How the wrong story got out is here.

But what really got me was the comment on Phil’s blog from an Even:

Oh what a coincidence, a real democrat threat to the system has his wife get a relapse of incurable cancer……they have been busy with those fancy new radiation guns, that have been developed with the stolen wealth of their countrys well being, with billions after billions invested in the weapons of mass oppression that happens there year after year.

So where do you get hold of one of those fancy new radiation guns?

I suspect many people have heard about Sheriff Joe Arpaio, known as America’s Toughest Sheriff for his initiatives such as chain labour.

Now I always just assumed Sheriff Joe was a small town Sheriff with a small population to look after. But upon looking up Maricopa County, Arizona I’ve discovered that the county population is a whopping 3.6 million – around the same as NZ. So Sheriff Joe runs a penal system which is probably larger than all of NZ. This means one can’t dismiss his methods quite so quickly.

The Sheriff Joe entry in WIkipedia lists all his programmes and the criticisms. They include laudable stuff such as only approved high school program in any American jail, anti-drug programmes, and English classes for non English speaking inmates.

The most well known and controversial are the chain gangs, including the first all woman chain gang. What I was unaware of is that the prisoners volunteer to go them, they are not conscripted. They can regain privileges lost through bad behaviour on them, and it seems many volunteer for them just so they get to be outside the prison.

There are some allegations of prisoner mistreatments which appear substantiated, and they can only be condemned.

But overall it’s an interesting mixture. What is most frustrating for me though is I can’t find any info on whether his “tough” measures work or not. Do they have a lower reoffending rate? Is prisoner violence less? Is the general crime rate in the community less?

Oh this is too funny for words. I suspect it was deliberate from CNN. For those who don’t follow US news, Ann Coulter referred to Democratic Presidential Candidate Jphn Edwards as a “faggot” causing outcry. Edwards incidentially is straight and Coulter says she used the term as a parody of the Greys Anatony actor (Washington who plays Burke) who had to undergo counselling for calling the cast member who plays O’Malley a faggot.

Anyway uproar as predicted, with it being discussed on all the TV shows. Hence the unfortunately worded reference above.

Hat Tip: Sonic

The former Chief of Staff to US Vice-President Dick Cheney has been found guilty on four counts of obstructing justice, lying and perjury.

This is the good thing in a democracy – no one is above the law, no matter how powerful.

Somewhat ironically no-one has ever been charged in relation to the original question of leaking the identity of CIA staffer Valerie Plame – probably because no crime was committed. But as is often the case an attempt to cover up is what brings people down.

The US Christian Right is unhappy that none of the leading Republican Presidential candidates are intolerant enough for them.

Good.

It’s nice to see a moderate GOP field on these issues. My ideal GOP candidate is a fiscal and defence hawk, yet liberal on social issues. Rudy and McCain both appeal at this stage. Romney is also promising.

No Right Turn highlights the convictions of two election workers in Ohio for trying to avoid a re-count by pre-selecting “good” ballots for a random check.

It is important to put into context that the discrepancy here was 20 votes in a state won by 118,000. This is not a Florida.

Some people try to paint this as a Republican issue, but those who recall the 1960 election know better.

The problem isn’t Republicans running elections or Democrats running elections but having any politicians running elections.

The United States has many strengths, but one of its weaknesses is the lack of a neutral elections service, and indeed to some degree the lack of a neutral wider public service.

The problem though is not easily solved. The US is a Federation, and it has a constitution. The US Government can not just set up a federal elections service. Elections, even to federal office, are conducted by the States.

Barack Obama has just announced he is seeking the Democratic candidacy (sell technically setting up a committee but same thing in a couple of weeks) for President of the United States of America.

This will lead to a worried Hillary Clinton announcing her candiacy in the near future.

I think Obama has the potential to be a very good President of the United States. However a mere four years in the Senate is not enough experience, and 2008 is too early for him. If he doesn’t get the nomination, choosing him as the VP candidate would be a very smart move as it could lift black turnout by 5% – 10% or so.

If he does not blot his copybook I suspect he will become President in 2012 or 2016.

Official candidates to date now are:

Democrats

* Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
* Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
* Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
* Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
* Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
* Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
* Senator Barack Obama of Illinois

Republicans

* John H. Cox of Illinois
* Michael Charles Smith of Oregon

I doubt Jim Anderton is going to be on the roster for Duty Minister anytime soon. His comments on Iraq have been labelled “ill-informed and regrettable” by Winston Peters.

In terms of Bush’s announcement of 21,500 extra troops, I am unsure it is enough to make a difference, but it is a better option than doing nothing or pulling out immediately.

It is very clear that if US troops were to leave now, the Iraqi Government would not be able to control the country and it would probably fall into full civil war between warlords, and if one side starts to get dominance, then either Iran or Saudi Arabia could intervene.

However this is not a case for staying there indefinitely. It is certainly arguable that a descent into full civil war is inevitable, and that if the US troops are not there that may reduce the incentives for some factions to carry on attacks.

Therefore it is desirable that troops be withdrawn, if they are only acting as an incentive for attacks. Personally I think most of the attacks are now between Iraqi factions, not against the US troops.

What Bush wants to do is one last try to weaken the militias and leave Iraqi Government forces in control. This is certainly difficult as even the Army is not entirely free fo sectarian loyalties. But the plan is to sned the extra forces in to secure province by province, and then hand them over to the Iraqis with a clear understanding that if they fail to maintain order by themselves, the US troops will not be coming back.

So the plan is not an unreasonable one, but I see two major challenges:

1) 21,500 extra troops may not be enough to make a difference.

2) Even if the troops do manage to “pacify” a province, there are real doubts that the Iraqi Govt forces will then be up to stepping in, and a breakdown into full civil war will still happen.

If a full civil war occurs, then Iraq may end up being split into three countries, which could lead to a huge number of refugees. And Turkey won’t be keen for Kurdistan to be their new neightbour!

In summary in my opinion, sending the extra troops is probably better than the status quo, but the probability of failure is still pretty high.

And people think that it is the Republican Party which has all the religious fundamentalists in it. Well look at who the Democrats have just made third in line to the presidency – Senator Robert Byrd – now president pro tem of the Senate. Read this account from the Washington Post:

The West Virginia Democrat punctuated the opening prayer with shouts of “Yes!” and “Mmmhmmm!” and “Yes, Lord!” and “Yes, in Jesus’s name!” When he was sworn in, he twice cried out “Hallelujah!” and then “Amen!” Minutes later, he was installed as Senate president pro tempore, the majority party’s most senior member. “Yeah, man! Yeah, man!” he shouted. “Hallelujah!” “I do, so help me God!” he shouted when the oath was administered. “Yeah, man!”

If that was a Republican, I am sure it would be the on every news bulletin around the world.

Talking of religion in the US Congress, some interesting stats here:

* Largest group is Catholics at 29%
* There are 43 Jewish Representatives or Senators, 40 of them being Democrats. They make up 8% of Congress despite being 1% of the population.
* Only six out of 536 members of Congress have no religious affiliation, so 98.8% profess to believe in God. By comparison 14% of Americans have no religious affiliation.
* There are 15 Mormon members of Congress, two Buddhist members and one Muslim member

Hat Tip: Adolf F at Sir H

I almost choked when I read on NZPA that President Bush has asked the new Democrat led Congress to work with him on balancing the budget within five years.

The bloody man has had six years with a Republican Congress and they have spent money like alcoholics in a brewery. They had an ideal opportunity to exercise some fiscal restraint and failed. Now expecting the Dems to help cut spending when your party failed is rather rich.

This lack of fiscal discipline, plus ethical issues, is why I am quite sanguine about the Democrats taking over Congress.

Jordan Carter obviously welcomes the change also, but goes overboard describing the Democrats as “adopting a cautious, bipartisan approach” and the Republicans having been “twelve long years of partisan madness the ‘Contract with America’ loonies imposed upon the U.S. Congress”.

Sigh, must be nice to have such a purist view.

One nice thing in the US Congress was to see America’s first Moslem Congressman sworn in with Thomas Jefferson’s copy of the Quran. Hopefully it can serve as a powerful signal that the US is not anti-Islam, to see a Moslem elected to the Congress and able to be sworn in with their holy book.

2004 VP Candidate John Edwards has formally declared his candiacy for the Democratic nomination for 2008. Edwards has been doing a lot of work with organised labour and will be a serious contender.

This is the first election since 1928 when neither the incumbent President oe Vice-President has sought the candidacy.

So far the following are the official candidates:

Democrats:

Senator Mike Gravel, aged 78, Senator for Alaska from 1969 to 1981. Highly unlikely.
Congressman Dennis Kucinch, aged 60, Ohio Congresman since 1997. Hard left, not electable.
Governor Tom Vilsack, aged 56, Iowa Governor since 1999, Chair of the centrist DLC, one to watch.
Senator Joe Biden, aged 64, Senator for Delaware since 1973! Past his prime.
Senator John Edwards, aged 53, North Carolina Senator from 1999 to 2005. The leading contender so far.

Republicans:

John Cox, aged 51, never held elected office. A nobody.

Of course it will get more interesting as others declare. Will Clinton, Obama and Gore seek the Democratic nomination and same for McCain, Giulani and Gingrich for the Republicans?

Gerald Ford has died, aged 93. The 38th President was the only one never elected as President or Vice-President. His death was announced around 30 minutes ago.

His original name was Leslie Lynch King, Jr., He lost to Carter by 2% in 1976, but went into the campaign a massive 34% behind.

He leaves behind only three living ex-Presidents – Carter, Bush and Clinton. He is also the last member of the Warren Commission to die. Ford also was the longest lived President, beating Reagan’s record just six weeks ago.

Boy do the left in the US love their conspiracies. The latest comes after a US Democratic Senator had a stroke, which if ultimately fatal might lead to the Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate.

On the hugely watched daytime show, The View, one of the leftie panelists openly asked if the stroke could have been man-made and done to him deliberately. When challenged on this lunacy, she insisted the Republican Party was capable of murdering Senators.

This is almost a re-run of a couple of years ago when another Democratic Senator died in a plane crash, and the loonies alleged that the plane was sabotaged.

Combine that with the huge number who think that September 11 was also done by the Republican Party, not Al Qaeda, plus thought who think the voting machines are all rigged, and the worldview of these people is that the Republican Party

(a) staged the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon
(b) stole the 2002 and 2004 elections with rigged voting machines (which somehow didn’t work in 2006)
(c) shot down the plane of one US Senator
(d) poisoned another US Senator to give him a stroke

I’m just waiting for them to be also blamed for the radiation poisoning of the ex-KGB agents, and that they somehow implicated Putin for it.

Hat Tip: Tim Blair

A few people have been getting upset over this video posted by some bored troops in Iraq. Can’t see the fuss myself – just normal work hijinks obviously in good humour. Wonder how long it took to get free though!

Few things really annoy me, but quoting an 18 month old post out of context as a failed prediction, and ignoring many more recent posts is very bad form.

NZBC (and now linked to by Public Address) quote me saying this in Feb 2005:

The Republican Party in the US is on the verge of becoming the natural party of Government. This is not due to their strengths as much as the idiocy of the Democratic Party which makes Michael Moore their unofficial spokesperson.

Now firstly on a minor point this was not a prediction for the upcoming elections, it was commenting on why the GOP has done so remarkably well in recent years (and was saying not because GOP is good, but because Dems tend to stuff up).

But more to the point on numerous occasions since I have made explicit predictions that the Democrats would win at the mid-terms, and that the Republicans deserved to lose. Ignoring these more recent statements is, to be honest, crappy behaviour.

13 months ago I said:

I’ve been thinking for a while that the 2006 mid-terms could be very very bad for the Republican Party and Bush.

Just a few weeks ago I posted on the Republicans losing control of the House due to their out of control spending which I labelled shameful.

Finally, as I noted on NZBC, the Republicans had:

* A President with almost the lowest approval ratings in history
* A hugely unpopular war
* Multiple corruptions scandals
* Hypocrisy over morals
* A total absence of fiscal discipline

Yet the swing to the Democrats was slightly less than the post-WWII average swing in a President’s sixth year. The average swing against has seen 29 House seats lost and six Senate seats.

Anyway back to the main point. To take one outdated non-prediction and highlight that as a failed prediction, while ignoring the dozen or so more recent posts which did in fact make a prediction and have consistently said the Democrats will do well etc., is regrettable.

Well turned out to be a great day for the Democrats and the Republicans have had their first casualty from the result – the resignation of Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfield.

In the House the Dems have picked up 28 seats and it is 228-196 with 11 too close to call. Final outcome looks to be 232-203 – a bigger majority than the GOp had in the last Congress.

The Senate is poised to flip to the Democrats. At present the Dems have 48, GOP 49, Dems leaning Independents 2 and Virginia which is very close and will be recounted.
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In Virginia Democratic Webb leads Allen by 6,900 votes out of over 2.3 million. I would be amazed if this changed so in a couple of days the Dems will be confirmed as controlling the Senate also.

Amongst the Governors, the Democrats have picked up six and now govern 28 out of 50 States.

Congress also has its first Muslim MP, which in a general sense is a good thing, as it may demonstrate that the United States is open to people of all religious faiths.

Use this thread to debate the results as they come in.

Joe Lieberman has kept his seat, which is a rebuff to the hardcore left who outed him in the primary. He will caucus with the Democrats though.

In the Senate Santorum has been defeated in Pennsylvania (good – too much of a zealot for me) and Ohio is almost certainly lost also.

Too soon to say in the House. Exit polls make it look like the Dems should get a doble digit majority, but they have been wrong before!

A third Senate seat has gone to the Dems in Rhode Island. A bit of a pity as it was one of the GOP’s most liberal Senators.

In the House, the Dems have picked up eight seats and need just seven more.

In Florida, the GOP candidate has won teh race for Governor. He must have been nervous though as he refused to turn up and introduce Bush at a rally yesterday!

A Dem majority in the Senate is looking difficult. They need three more pickups.

In Virgina, GOP Allen is ahead of Webb by 30,000 votes (1%) with 95% of precincts in. Likely hold.

Tennesee has GOP Corker ahead by 5% with 71% in. Likely hold.

Montana has only 1% counted so too early.

Missouri has GOP Talent ahead by 8% with 33% in. Might still go.

And the networks are now all saying the Democrats have taken control of the House. Goodbye Speaker Hastert and hello Speaker Pelosi.

Scoop are getting in early. They have published an article on how the Republicans stole the mid-term elections, before they’ve even had the poll!!

It seems verifying that someone is entitled to vote, is now stealing elections!

Talking of elections I’ll cover some results as they come in, but after 6 pm I’ll probably be at Parliament for the second reading of the drinking age bill, so no coverage from 6 pm to 10 pm probably.

Initial results should start early afternoon.

CNET have done a useful guide to the best and worse House and Senate members when it comes to technology issues.

The results were surprisingly mixed: In the Senate, Republicans easily bested Democrats by an average of 10 percent. In the House of Representatives, however, Democrats claimed a narrow but visible advantage on technology-related votes.

Libertarian Ron Paul was the highest scoring House Republican at 80%. In the Senate the second lowest placxe went to John Kerry on 15%.

It’s one of the things I like about the US system – the party whipping is so loose, that you can identify where lawmakers stand on various issues.

Now this is a great political ad. Very memorable, and funny.

Youtube has been the best thing since sliced cheese for accessing overseas political ads.

Some great humour from the Minnesota National Guard in response to John Kerry telling a group of students if they don’t study hard and get degrees they might find themselves stuck in Iraq. The implication that anyone in the Armed Forces is thick and uneducated has dominated headlines for two days.

While it will hurt the Democrats somewhat, I still think they are likely to win the House next week. The Senate looks to be closer, but less likely to swap majority control.

In the wake of the Republican Page Boy scandal, we have: