The Wood Chipper has an excellent blog on what will happen to Ohariu in 2011.
This graphic is an excellent way of showing what has happened to Peter’s vote, from the high in 2002. It has gone from attracting support from all parties, to mainly support from National voters only. Somewhat ironically, as from 2002 to 2008 Peter backed a Labour-led Government.
If Peter does not stand in 2011, then this graph shows pretty clearly that it should become a very safe National seat.