Kiwiblog

Now that Labour have abandoned 25 years of bipartisan commitment to sane monetary policy, we may need to get used to bank notes like this if they win in future (unless they quietly drop their policy to have more inflation).

One NZ$ is worth around 4,000 Zambian kwacha, so that note is worth around NZ$1.25. Note that in 1968 the kwacha was worth more than the US dollar.

Their largest note is for 50,000 which is NZ$12.50.

Yes that is a 100 trillion dollar note. Dr Evil, take that!

We shouldn’t have to worry about this scenario unless it is a four-way coalition of Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana

In fact the note is “worth” more than 100 trillion as there were three redenominations. The first was a 1,000:1 redenomination, the second was a 10 billion:1 and the third a 1 trillion:1 redenomination.

So in terms of the original Zimbabwean dollar, that note is worth 1×10^39 or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, which could be called a duodecillion dollars.

This note was worth US30 when printed in 2009 but is worthless today. Their inflation rate in 2008 was 231,000,000%. It was only 28 years ago in 1983 that their dollar purchased US1.

The Zambesi is the fourth largest river in Africa and the largest flowing into the Indian Ocean. The basin is 1.4m square kms and it is 3,540 kms long.

Did a cruise on the Upper Zambesi. Had an open bar, which was also nice.

You cruise close to the islands in between the different channels, and here you can see a crocodile on land. Not a river you want to swim in, and even kayaking could have its risks.

A family of six hippos. Can’t see in this photo but one of them is a toddler and on the back of its mum.

Talking of toddlers, how cute is this baby crocodile? If it were not for the fact they grow up, you’d almost want to take it home as a pet

This is the Victoria Falls Hotel. It is an Edwardian building, 107 years old, and it is like you are living in the Edwardian era – they serve high tea on the balcony there.  They also serve drinks, so I’ve spent most of my spare time drinking Zambesi Sparkles (their inhouse cocktail) there while working on my laptop, or reading a book.

This is the view from the front lawn. You can see the border/bungee bridge ahead, and the “smoke” from the falls also. A stunning view.

The baboons are everywhere – literally treating the place as if it is theirs. You see warthogs in the grounds also.

As with any good hotel, they have the local newspaper. This story was on the front page and no name suppression here. An injiva incidentially is what they call a Zimbabwean living in South Africa.

I love the fine of seven head of cattle for bedding a wife. Allows you to weigh up the risks in terms of being caught and the likely fine vs the benefits

One of the lounges inside the hotel.

David Livingstone named them the Victoria Falls after Queen Victoria, but the local name of Mosi-oa-Tunya or the Smoke that Thunders is such a better name for them. You can not appreciate how accurate that name is until you have been to the falls, seen the “smoke” and heard the thunder.

This is the left most fall from the Zimbabwe side. The falls are two kilometres wide, so you can not get a photo of the entire falls together, unless from a helicopter.

The bush is lush rainforest next to the falls – because they get plenty of rain from the falls. Except when the falls are at their lowest, you get soaked viewing them – and I mean soaked. The water comes from so high up you would swear it was raining if it not for the lack of clouds. You get wet in some parts even a couple of score of metres back. Sometimes with a strong wind the falls water will even hit the township a km or so away.

Heading into the main part of the falls now.

There are around 20 viewing points from the Zimbabwe side

And at the far end of the falls.

This bridge is the border crossing between Zimbabwe and Zambia, plus you can bungy jump from it, do a zip line of flying fox.

And very cool, you can white water raft from the bottom of the falls. I’ve rafted the Shotover a few times, but this would be a truly fun group activity. The guide told me that falling out in one of their rapids is somewhat more dangerous than on the Shotover.

A statue on the Zimbabwe side of David Livingstone – the first European to see the falls.

After spending two hours walking around the Zimbabwe side, I crossed over the bridge to the Zambia side. It’s around three kms all up walking across, and very hot. The worst things are not the heat though but the young touts. They are trying to sell you everything from useless currency to bracelets. They are absolute con artists, suggesting US$30 for a 10c bracelet. But sadly even refusing to buy or talk to them doesn’t help as they will follow you for at least a km telling you how they are starving (they do not look it), their family has no money, their grandparents will have to be kicked out as they can’t look after them etc etc.

I suspect many of them earn well over US$100 a day, which probably puts them in the top 1% in Zimbabwe. They’ll do anything to engage you in conversation so you feel obliged to give them some money, most commonly asking you where you come from. After around the 20th one had asked me this I snapped and said “The North Pole”. They all looked surprised as no one had ever said that before obviously. Then one of them asked if I really was from the North Pole, and I replied “No, but you all obviously think I am as you think I’m Father Fucking Christmas”. As it was Xmas Day, possibly a bit ungracious from me, but seriously these kids are hyenas in human form.

I was surprised to see one of the traditional WWI memorial states in Zambia, but then recalled that back then it was Northern Rhodesia.

You can see a raft here waiting to go down a bloody large rapid.

There are baboons on both sides, but they are way more numerous on the Zambia side. On half a dozen occasions I had to walk within a foot or two of some baboons, and you do hope they remain passive.

These are they very right hand side of the falls.

A small bridge, which gets soaking wet so you walk it very slowly. Great views from it though.

A shot of the bottom of the falls. On average they are 100 metres deep.

Now that would send the Department of Labour OSH team into a spin back home – having people walk along the top of the falls, where one slip would mean goneburger. At most of the lookouts there are no barriers – you can go as close to the edge as you feel safe. I have to say walking along the top of the falls in the water would be too much for me.

They look ready to take a swim in case they do fall! A fall would be fatal, so I presume why they were in togs was heading to the Devil’s Pool which is an area off Livingstone Island where you can swim at the top of the falls, but not get swept over. That would be fun to do – but I’d rather take a boat to Livingstone Island – not walk over to it.

A final shot of the falls from the Zambia side.

If you want to see all the different vantage points on both the Zimbabwe side and Zambia side, plus walk across the border crossing (something I’ve never done before), it’s around 10 kms of walking all up – and in hot sun. But the views are absolutely worth it. It is rightfully regarded as one of the seven natural wonders of the world.

Stephen Stratford sent me this story at The Atlantic. It looks at how Wikileaks has damaged the pro-democracy movement in Zimbabwe and helped prop up Mugabe. It is a great example of why secrecy does not always mean bad. When dealing with evil dictators, a lack of secrecy will often help the dictator only.

Last year, early on Christmas Eve morning, representatives from the U.S., United Kingdom, Netherlands, and the European Union arrived for a meeting with Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. …

The topic of the meeting was the sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by a collection of western countries, including the U.S. and E.U. Tsvangirai told the western officials that, while there had been some progress in the last year, Mugabe and his supporters were dragging their feet on delivering political reforms. To overcome this, he said that the sanctions on Zimbabwe “must be kept in place” to induce Mugabe into giving up some political power. The prime minister openly admitted the incongruity between his private support for the sanctions and his public statements in opposition. If his political adversaries knew Tsvangirai secretly supported the sanctions, deeply unpopular with Zimbabweans, they would have a powerful weapon to attack and discredit the democratic reformer.

Later that day, the U.S. embassy in Zimbabwe dutifully reported the details of the meeting to Washington in a confidential U.S. State Department diplomatic cable. And slightly less than one year later, WikiLeaks released it to the world.

The reaction in Zimbabwe was swift. Zimbabwe’s Mugabe-appointed attorney general announced he was investigating the Prime Minister on treason charges based exclusively on the contents of the leaked cable.

The consequences may be servere:

It’s difficult to see this as anything but a major setback for democracy in Zimbabwe. Even if Tsvangirai is not charged with treason, the opponents to democratic reforms have won a significant victory. First, popular support for Tsvangirai and the MDC will suffer due to Mugabe’s inevitable smear campaign, including the attorney general’s “investigation.” Second, the Prime Minister might be forced to take positions in opposition to the international community to avoid accusation of being a foreign collaborator. Third, Zimbabwe’s fragile coalition government could collapse completely. Whatever happens, democratic reforms in Zimbabwe are far less likely now than before the leak.

To their supporters, WikiLeaks and its founder Julian Assange are heroes of the democratic cause. Assange himself has claimed that his organization promotes democracy by strengthening the media. But in Zimbabwe, Assange’s pursuit of this noble goal has provided a tyrant with the ammunition to wound, and perhaps kill, any chance for multiparty democracy. Earlier this month, Assange claimed that “not a single person, as far as anyone is aware, has been harmed” by Wikileaks’ practices. This is no longer true, if it ever was.

I am surprised the mainstream media have not covered the Zimbabwe angle more.

I’m all for less secrecy, but that is not the same as no secrecy. And in terms of who decides what remains secret – I prefer those I elect to Parliament to do so, rather than Julian Assange who is accountable to no one at all.

A reader has sent in these photos he took while in Zimbabwe (helping provide a water well to a community).

I can’t quite see the campaign catching on in New Zealand. Having said that it seems it is effective:

The results showed that circumcision reduced vaginal-to-penile transmission of HIV by 60%, 53%, and 51%, respectively. A meta-analysis of the African randomised controlled trials found that the risk in circumcised males was 0.44 times that in uncircumcised males, and reported that 72 circumcisions would need to be performed to prevent one HIV infection.

Another sign unlikely to be seen in New Zealand!

Zimbabwe gets worse:

ZIMBABWE’S Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai was injured and his wife Susan was killed in a car crash overnight, party officials confirmed, adding that suspicious circumstances could indicate foul play.

I think we can guess who.

President Robert Mugabe’s former regime had a long history of assassination plots, mass murder and torture of its opponents since it came to power in 1980.

However, within an hour of Mr Tsvangirai being brought to the private Avenues Clinic, Mr Mugabe and his wife, Grace, arrived to express their condolences, followed by several other senior officials of Mr Mugabe’s ZANU(PF) party.

I’m surprised Mugabe didn’t turn up to the clinic an hour before the crash!

That was the question I asked when I saw the headline in the Dominion Post that “Key may stop Black Caps’ Zimbabwe tour”.

In fact not even Muldoon tried to stop a NZ team from travelling overseas.

But as I read the full article, I realised that it is not as bad as I thought. Basically NZ Cricket doesn’t want to tour Zimbabwe (understandably) but if they refuse they get fined massively by the ICC.

However if the Govt declares they are “ordering” the team not to tour, then they escape the ICC fine.

So I can understand that any such “order” would be to actually help NZ Cricket out. But nevertheless I think one needs to be very careful about the notion that the Government can order any private sporting body what to do.

Paul Walker has blogged Zimbabwe’s new annual inflation rate.

It is 10.2 quadrillion precent. That is 10.2 million billion or 10,200,000,000,000,000%.

That makes me feel better about NZ hitting 5.1%. But only slightly.

After years of insanity, there is some hope in Zimbabwe. The Telegraph reports that a deal is close which will see Mugabe remain President, but many powers transferred to Morgan Tsvangirai as his Prime Minister.

As much as I would like to see Mugabe put on trial, a peaceful solution is desirable, and if it has to involve immunity for Mugabe and his henchmen, so be it.

While anyone is better than Mugabe, it is worth noting Tsvangirai is no angel, and Zimbabwe path  back to relative peace and prosperity could be a very long one.

There is some bright news about Zimbabwe.

Now they do have some economic problems, such as:

• 85% unemployment
• Hyperinflation at around 1,700,000%
• -5.7% annual GDP growth
• 80% earn below US$50 a month

But the good news is they have massively reduced their carbon footprint. They no longer produce all their own electricity, the economy has shrunk 40% since 2000, and that nasty carbon polluting agricultural sector has largely shut up shop.

So let us celebrate Zimbabwe’s leadership role in obtaining carbon neutrality.

The Washington Post has a chilling story of how Mugabe was willing initially to stand down, but that his military commanders would not let him. It confirms that Zimbabwe is now a military dictatorship:

President Robert Mugabe summoned his top security officials to a government training center near his rural home in central Zimbabwe on the afternoon of March 30. In a voice barely audible at first, he informed the leaders of the state security apparatus that had enforced his rule for 28 years that he had lost the presidential vote held the previous day.

Then Mugabe told the gathering he planned to give up power in a televised speech to the nation the next day, according to the written notes of one participant that were corroborated by two other people with direct knowledge of the meeting.

But Zimbabwe’s military chief, Gen. Constantine Chiwenga, responded that the choice was not Mugabe’s alone to make. According to two firsthand accounts of the meeting, Chiwenga told Mugabe his military would take control of the country to keep him in office or the president could contest a runoff election, directed in the field by senior army officers supervising a military-style campaign against the opposition.

They choose the second option but it really is much the same as the first option.

Hat Tip: Tumeke

Paul Thomas casts a sad eye on Africa:

If the reception granted Robert Mugabe at this week’s meeting of the African Union wasn’t obscene, then we might as well retire the word.

There wasn’t a hint of censure for the old fraud who stole an election from under the world’s nose, the thug dispatching goons to whip voters into line, the lunatic ideologue who turned the breadbasket of Africa into a barren land, the psychopath who preens and struts in tailor-made suits while the currency collapses and his people starve.

Yes, it is not just South Africa who are implictly supporting Mugabe.

Instead there was the silence of collusion and hugs all round. Instead President Omar Bongo of Gabon called Mugabe a “hero”.

To understand where Bongo’s coming from, it’s necessary to grasp that for many African leaders the object of the exercise is to cling to power by whatever means for as long as possible, in the process making yourself obscenely rich at the expense of your compatriots.

The continent does sadly suffer from a deficit of leaders who truly beleive in public service.

Africa often seems trapped in a post-colonial mindset in which self-determination is seen as its own reward, even when it delivers misery. Black pride has eclipsed good government, tribalism has eclipsed democracy, power has eclipsed legitimacy and greed has eclipsed public service.

The tribalism is especially a problem. Few leaders can get power without tribal support, and then they govern in the interests of their tribe instead of the nation.

Nandor blogs from the IPU (International Parliamentary Union) meeting in Cape Town. He has some interesting observations on Zimbabwe and whether South Africa will step in if Mugabe starts massacring opponents. The IPU has also got involved:

The IPU did put out a strong statement last week. As well as being instrumental in putting it on the agenda, the NZ delegation also played a key role in getting the wording strengthened. John Carter and I worked together on amendments to the drafts, and I was impressed with what he got the drafting committee to support.

Well done John and Nandor. But who else is there:

Pressure also neeeds to be put on China to not sell arms under the circumstances. Zimbabwe is totally skint, so they can’t even pay their current bills. Any credit advanced for arms is even more unethical than normal. I had intended to mention it during the plenary debate. NZ had 8 minutes, split between Dover Samuels and me, but Dover spoke first and used up the whole allocation, so I had no opportunity to speak.

(I wouldn’t have minded so much if he hadn’t spent the whole time saying what a waste of time the IPU is before swanning off on a sight seeing tour with the delegates’ spouses!)

Oh dear.

Mugabe is fighting on and back to his usual tactics of intimidation.

Despite there being no release of election results, there will be a run-off election for President.

No doubt they have not released the count from the first round because they are already counting the votes for the second round.

I predict Mugabe will be declared to win a narrow victory – say 52% to 48%.

The latest news is not good.

Mugabe has kept the results of the presidential poll locked up for almost a week now. And police have started arresting foreign journalists and raiding the offices of the opposition party.

It’s taking Robert Mugabe a long time to rig the results of the Zimbabwe elections. He used to be far more efficient at it, and do it within a day.  Now we are up to three days and no results.

How can any results be credible?

I loved the line from the Mugabe Ambassador to the UN:

A Zimbabwe diplomat told CNN the delay in releasing the presidential results is simply to ensure every vote is counted.

Indeed, but first they have to create all the extra votes for Mugabe, so they can count them. And it is a new system of counting votes that you only give out a total at the end, rather than any progress results.

It will be interesting to see if Mugabe manages to steal the Zimbabwe election.  The signs so far do not look good:

African Union election observers also raised concerns about 8,450 voters registered to a patch of deserted land in north Harare.

And where real people are trying to vote:

As voting started it became clear that large numbers of people were being turned away from the polling booths.

In Chitungwiza The Sunday Telegraph witnessed seven people being turned away in the space of five minutes after being told their names were not on the voters roll or that they had not got the correct identification.

 We also see the ultimate end goal of Working for Families type largesse:

He also attempted to bolster his support through the “agricultural mechanisation programme”, a thinly disguised vote buying exercise in which mountains of farm equipment have been given away at Zanu PF election rallies.

The tactic appeared to have convinced some supporters to stay loyal. Christine Machada, 46, a mother of six who received a harvester and a tractor, said she had voted for him again, although her 25 acre farm was producing few crops.

Yep, give money or tractors to people so they vote for you. At least that is legal.

Keeping Stock has a post on how there is likely to be many votes cast in the Zimbabwe election on behalf of dead people.

This is sadly no exagerration. A couple of years ago I was at an international political conference where various countries discussed their elections, and hat worked and what didn’t.  One of the Opposition MPs from Tanzania (I think) got up and told us how their major accomplishment was that they reduced from one million to just 300,000 the number of dead people who voted!!

This made us realise how relatively trivial our problems were, such as people out until later so harder to contact them!