The Herald reports:

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick won’t say if she would have advised her MP Hūhana Lyndon against meeting with members of the Mongrel Mob.

After being asked the question twice, Swarbrick said she needed to “understand more of the context as to what has played out here”, although she earlier said having those types of engagements were important to understanding and addressing issues in the community.

Swarbrick’s co-leader Marama Davidson said meeting with the Mongrel Mob is “not a new thing” – she made headlines for meeting members in 2021 – and her party was “unapologetic” for engaging with marginalised communities.

The Greens seen gangs as a marginalised community. The reality is they are the ones who create victims.

Gangs are not some sort of community group or extended whanau. They are organised crime. The crime is not incidental to their existence. It is their defining characteristic. Can you name a single gang in NZ that isn’t part of organised crime?

The Greens see them as a marginalised community, and think it is fine to go to gang headquarters and campaign for their votes. There is no empathy for the law abiding New Zealanders who have been killed, raped, bashed or robbed by gang members, because in the Greens world, the gang members are the real victims – of a patriarchal racist society.

On the 2nd of October I wrote:

So the last six polls, all from different firms, have had ACT ahead of Opportunity by margins ranging from 1% to 6%, and the Herald-MOTU poll of polls says that the poll of polls means Opportunity is ahead of ACT.

On the 8th of October the Herald did an explainer, and have made some changes. Much of their explanation has nothing to do with why they had Opportunity above ACT, when every single pollster had them 1% to 6% behind. But there were some nuggets of useful info:

Well, most importantly, it means the Poll of polls is not a polling average.

Then don’t call it a poll of polls!!!

Crucially, the Poll of polls doesn’t just take polled values as is. Instead, it considers how polling values have changed in the recent past, which it uses to predict how voter sentiment may have evolved since the polls were actually conducted. The model’s predictions are then updated as new polls are included.

This seems to be saying that if a party has been going up in the polls, or down in the polls, then they predict that trend will continue. Now I’ve been following polling aggregators and forecasts for over 15 years, since Nate Silver made them famous (and prior to that Real Clear Politics). This is a very very rare practice, and would normally only occur in an environment where you have hundreds or thousands of polls, as inputs to a model.

Certainly some forecasters such as Nate Silver do include non polling information such as economic data, and even expert predictions. But they make it crystal clear that they are doing so, and in Silver’s case they provide different outputs (lite, classic, deluxe) so readers can pick between the simple polling average and that which incorporates other data.

Could you imagine what would happen if an actual polling company said “Hey National got 32% in this poll, but as they were at 30% in the last poll, they have momentum, so we are going to report they are at 34%!”

It is worth reflecting on what the actual polls since the Herald poll of polls had Opportunity ahead of ACT have said. They are:

• Roy Morgan: ACT 4.5% ahead
• Reid Research: ACT 3.5% ahead
• Verian: Act 2.0% ahead
• Curia: ACT 4.4% ahead

So if the momentum formula was a useful thing to do, then you would have expected the next set of polls to indeed show Opportunity ahead. But none of them do – the last 10 polls all show ACT ahead, but the herald poll of polls still shows Opportunity ahead of ACT.

This is not a trivial issue. Millions of people may have seen this forecast and thought it accurately reflected the state of the race.

The Herald will continue to use predictions of the outcome of a “hypothetical election held today” as the primary output of the Poll of polls. This is, after all, what we are most interested in.

However, to make it easier to understand what the model is doing, we will also publish two additional estimates. First, we will publish the model’s estimate of the polling average today to help readers understand the magnitude of pollster effects.

Second, we will publish the model’s estimate of the polling average one month ago to help readers understand the model’s sense of underlying momentum. It will also enable readers to check the model’s estimates against the most recent five or six polls.

Extra data is good, as is the explanation. But what the Herald should have done is made clear from the beginning that they were not just taking poll results and weighting them for size, recency or house effects, but also adding in an assumption about momentum (that is very dubious).

What has also been unacceptable is the refusal to actually release the formula being used, so people can judge for themselves. I do a simple polling average at Curia, and the methodology is published here.

If it is necessary to modify the underlying model to more accurately reflect voter sentiment, then we will make changes and explain the reasoning that prompted them to readers. However, at present we do not believe changes are necessary.

You’ve still got a “poll of polls” claiming Opportunity is ahead of ACT, despite the last 10 polls saying the opposite. I think changes were necessary some time ago.

Finally a note of caution. As the election gets closer, the Herald’s model will no doubt reduce the adjustments it makes for stuff like momentum, so that the final pre-election forecast is basically just a polling average (with house effects adjusted for). It is quite possible, even probably, that will be accurate. Polling averages done well, are often superior to any individual poll.

But that doesn’t mean their “poll of polls” six weeks out is at all accurate, or useful. In fact it is highly misleading. Readers should not have to read a 10 page article to understand what it is and isn’t. Do not call it a poll of polls when by your own words “it is not a polling average”.

Here is Labour’s fiscal plan:

You will see they are forecasting $365 million over four years from “reversing tobacco tax cut”.

This is the 50% reduction on excise tax for heated tobacco products. This was a minor change designed to incentivise smokers onto a less harmful product. So it is easy to calculate the “lost” revenue from the policy, as you simply double the actual excise paid on heated tobacco products, and subtract what was collected – ie the lost revenue is equal to the actual collected revenue.

Labour’s fiscal plan has $365 million from changing this excise tax back to what it was. So what has been the actual data?

A March 2026 OIA said that excise tax was $2.26 million in the 2024/25 year, which means the “cost” was also $2.26 million.

Now I wondered if there was data for the most recent 2025/26 year, so I asked. And I just got the reply. It was $3.45 million.

Labour’s fiscal plan says they will make $82 million from reversing the change, while the actual data is it will bring in $3.45 million. So the actual revenue is 4.2% of what they claim, or to put it another way their fiscal plan is out by 2377%!!

UPDATE: The fault may be Treasury’s, not Labour. It seems Treasury doesn’t even look at actual data and has kept in its forecasts a projection the HTP excise reduction will cost $82 million a year. This is clearly nonsense, as seen by the actual data.

So Treasury is under-estimating revenue data by $82 million a year. Labour is claiming that reversing the policy will magically bring in $82 million a year. It won’t. Both Treasury and Labour are wrong, as the Customs data is crystal clear the fiscal impact is less than 5% of that. But the greater blame lies with Treasury.

Also thanks to The Post who did check this out, and pointed me to the Treasury estimates.

Erica Stanford released:

New independent assessment results show primary and intermediate students made the equivalent of four months’ additional progress in mathematics between 2024 and 2026, signalling a turnaround in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.

The latest Progressive Achievement Test (PAT) data, released today by the New Zealand Council for Educational Research (NZCER), show statistically significant improvements in mathematics and reading comprehension and vocabulary.

“Our number one priority in education has been raising achievement and closing the equity gap, and these results are incredibly encouraging.

“It means more children are building stronger foundations in literacy and numeracy. These are significant gains and another sign that we are finally starting to turn achievement around.

This is great news, and shows the importance of bedding in the reforms, rather than passing them or scrapping them.

Wow, that is some difference. This is just such great news.

The Guardian reports:

The man accused of murdering Ann Widdecombe has been charged with engaging in conduct in preparation of acts of terrorism including against Nigel Farage. …

So this young man didn’t just (allegedly) bludgeon a 78 year old woman to death because he hated her politics, but also wanted to kill Nigel Farage because Farage had the wrong beliefs.

Where are all the hundreds of articles bemoaning the rise of the extreme violent left? Where are the taxpayer funded documentaries about them?

Political violence is not unique got any one side of politics, but the focus on only one side is what stands out.

Parliament has replaced the RMA. It is dead and buried. Replacing it are a Planning Act and Natural Environment Act. They are both vastly superior to the RMA.

But the fight is not over. The new Acts allow Ministers to issue National Policy Statements that will have huge influence in the new system. A National Policy Statement by Chris Bishop will be far far superior to one by a Labour/Green/TPM/Opportunity Government.

Labour to their credit have said they will not repeal the new laws. But they can promulgate NPSs that will make it much harder for good projects to get consented. So the election outcome will matter.

The independent review of the monetary policy response to Covid-19 is here. It seems fair and balanced. The key takeaways are:

• MPC’s initial response was praiseworthy; rapid and, for New Zealand, innovative monetary accommodation was provided
• Reserve Bank and the banks were insufficiently well prepared for policy near zero interest rates
• As inflation accelerated away from target, MPC decided to stop adding stimulus, but without sufficient urgency
• Inflation rose as far as 7.3%, 5.3% above target, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.2%, an unsustainable historic low,necessitating a costly reduction in economic growth and employment to restore stability
• The law was altered to introduce a Dual Mandate, adding scope for discretion and guiding the MPC to focus less on price stability
• the combined stimulus, while appropriate in the early stages, was too strong for too long

So Labour’s introduction of a dual mandate was a contributing factor to the high inflation we had, along with the RB being too slow to act as inflation started to increase.

The latest update from the Taxpayers’ Union bribe-o-meter:

Two of the seven parties are being fiscally responsible. Two are being irresponsible, and three are just in the money goes on trees category.

The Herald talks to Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan:

A search of Hansard shows that, besides the Speaker, his assistants and deputy, Xu-Nan is the only one who comes close and is by far the MP with the most recorded speeches and questions this term, over 1100.

“Even in the House, you’re learning from your colleagues, you’re learning from each other in the committee stage, you’re learning from ministers, and there are some fantastic ministers who really know their portfolio and are really willing to share their expertise, and those are the ones that you’ll find where the committee stage is the most enjoyable.”

He cited Chris Bishop, Nicole McKee, James Meager and former minister Chris Penk as his favourites.

“There’s such an easy-flowing dialogue and conversation. You ask a question, they respond,” he said. “They’re not there to be political. They’re there to genuinely engage and answer questions.”

His favourite committee stage the whole term was a Statutes Amendment Bill in 2025 in the name of McKee – a bill that makes non-controversial technical changes or corrects or updates a variety of acts.

What he loves most about his job is “the infinite opportunity to learn”.

This is such a good attitude for an MP to have. Quite a few MPs think their job is to create outrage on Instagram and TikTok. But Xu-Nan sees his job as both holding the Government to account, but also an opportunity to learn. We could do with more MPs like him – in all parties.

Politico reports:

So the net support is:

1. Canadians on Carney’s reciprocal tariffs: +54%
2. Americans on Carney’s reciprocal tariffs: +2%
3. Americans on Trump’s tariffs: -30%
4. Canadians on Trump’s tariffs: -75%

Trump is looking to not only lose the House, but also lose the Senate. He managed to get a plurality of Americans backing Canada!

A really fascinating article by Erika Aliarez who went viral over footage of her at a ballpark game returning to her seat with a baby strapped to her chest and her hands full of ballpark food. She was dubbed Mother of the Year and her husband a lowlife who received death threats.

Her poignant article shows the damage that gets done by the viral lynch mobs who determine the entree worth of a person, based on one incident, especially one without full context.

LBC reports:

An investigation has revealed that a man known only as ‘Mr X’ worked as a personal bodyguard for Ismail Haniyeh, who was Hamas’ leader in Gaza between 2007 and 2017. 

He then successfully applied for asylum and eventually indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and was able to plot an antisemitic attack on the second anniversary of the October 7 attack perpetrated by Hamas. …

However, not only were his ties to Haniyah — who was assassinated in 2024 — reportedly well known, he also had a criminal history in Egypt where he was arrested for digging tunnels and smuggling weapons and gold into Gaza.

The UK Government knew all this, yet gave him citizenship!

As we draw closer to the 2026 US Congressional mid-term elections (where all US House of Representatives and 1/3 of Senators are up for re-election along with Statewide races but NOT the US President), the mainstream media’s rhetorical war with President Donald Trump is ramping up. Any incumbent administration is anxious to tout their successes and since Trump won the Presidential election in November 2024 he is no different. In a normal media environment, left leaning media tend to downplay any right leaning administration’s efforts and play up criticism from their left leaning opponents. In the right leaning media world, they do the opposite and will praise Trump’s 2^nd term and pan the Democrats. The current media environment is the most hostile and biased I have ever seen. Mainstream media no longer merely show a long standing left leaning bias, they engage in outright deceptive practices frequently telling blatant untruths about Trump and, more frequently, completely ignoring his achievements or significantly downplaying them. This post will illustrate this. Ask yourself, how many of these 45 demonstrable achievements that Trump has made since his swearing in on 20 January 2025 (so only 21 months ago) have you seen reported on in the New Zealand media? My guess is at best 5. If anyone claims Trump has done little to fulfill his campaign promises, here is the list with multiple links:

1. Illegal migration into the US has been entirely stopped. The Biden Administration’s catch and release policy has been ended and there have been 15 straight months of ZERO releases into the country. Illegal migrant entry in the US has dropped from a peak of 10,000 a day to zero. 2.6 million+ illegal immigrants are no longer in the US (including 650,000 ICE arrests) of which 400,000 had other often serious criminal convictions) plus over 2 million self-deportations induced by ending Federal government payments and offering a relocation subsidy of $2,500 plus a one-way airfare.

2 . Fentanyl trafficking into the US has dropped by 56% which has led to a decline in overdose deaths of 21%.

3. Largest one-year drop in reported homicides in U.S. history with violent crime (rapes, robberies, assaults) down significantly. Signed the Laken Riley Act to get dangerous criminals off American streets. It is not coincidental that such rapid reductions in violent crime have occurred as ICE detains and deports illegal immigrants convicted of violent crimes.

4. Targeted crime operations in major cities are delivering record-low murders in several metros.

5. Federal government funding cuts to sanctuary cities to be implemented pending final SCOTUS approval.

6. Designation of Tren de Aragua (Venezuela), MS-13 (El Salvador), and 30 other international cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organisations since February 2025. Many hundreds of the most vicious and dangerous gang members were amongst the first targeted by ICE for arrest and removal.

7. Antifa designated a Domestic Terrorist Organisation. They have been responsible for some of the most persistent violent attacks on law enforcement and government buildings in key US cities. This has enabled them to be charged with Federal crimes resulting in lengthy sentences and not released on the street as had been the case in a number of liberal cities with permissive District Attorneys.

8. Record U.S. energy production and exports at all-time highs (US is now a net energy exporter). There has been a vitual doubling of US oil capacity with the recent agreement to ramp up once compromised and faltering Venezuelan oil production.

9. 600,000+ new private sector jobs added since January 2025.

10. Largest blue-collar wage growth in 60 years.

11. Inflation tamed to 2.6% (2025 average) down almost 70% from 8% peak under Biden (2022 average).

12. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed (July 2025) making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent plus no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security.

13. $5 trillion + in deregulation savings

14. $215 billion in government efficiency cuts ($1,335 per taxpayer) – said by Government Accounting Office (GAO) to be closer to $120B. If the two figures are averaged, it’s still an impressive amount of saving of taxpayer dollars.

15. $10 trillion + in re-shored/domestic investments and secured domestic manufacturing (semiconductors, autos, heavy equipment) expanded.

16. Trade deficit at its lowest level since 2009 and $300 billion+ in tariff revenues collected.

17. Stock market hit record highs. Dow Jones and NASDAQ.

18. Trump has brokered 7 peace deals:

(i) Gaza ceasefire + hostage release secured

(ii) Armenia-Azerbaijan lasting peace

(iii) India-Pakistan cease fire

(iv) DRC-Rwanda peace agreement

(v) Cambodia-Thailand border conflict resolved

(vi) Kosovo-Serbia dispute resolved

(vii) Egypt-Ethiopia dam dispute resolved

19. Abraham Accords proposed to be expanded to: Azerbijan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,

20. Iran’s nuclear capability significantly degrade plus a maximum pressure campaign waged (450+ sanction designations) with the financial sanctions having the most teeth and reach.  I’m going to analyze the Iran war in more detail in a separate post.

21. Trump brokered a groundbreaking deal with Denmark regarding Greenland enabling the US complete and independent ability to bolster necessary security with permanent basing rights, non-NATO bases banned and blocked from investments deemed not in US interests and these rights in perpetuity even if Greenland gains full independence. The deal was praised by both the Greenland and Danish Prime Ministers.

22. NATO allies now working toward 5% GDP defense spending greatly reducing the total US defense bill required to be spent defending allies overseas.

23. Over 100 foreign detained Americans released and returned to the US.

24. Destruction of 69 narco-terrorist drug carrying vessels

25. Nicolás Maduro captured and stabilization of Venezuela gradually from previous status as the world’s most corrupt narco state.

26. Record surge in military recruitment and the largest military investment ($5 trillion) in decades

27. Veterans Administration hospital backlog reduced 60% and 51,936 homeless veterans housed.

28. Employment, benefits and back pay restored for those discharged from the military due to Biden era vaccine-mandates.

29. Transgender enlistment barred and transgender treatments to military personnel stopped.

30. DEI eliminated across the military.

31. DEI discrimination banned in federal contracting and agencies and race-based hiring ended.

32. Men/boys banned from women/girls sports and upheld by SCOTUS

33. Federal government no longer funds chemical/surgical transgender procedures for minors.

34. Trump reduces prescription medicine costs with “Most Favoured Nation” drug pricing in the US with 16+ major pharma companies.

35. Eight artificial food dyes phased out (40%+ industry compliance).

36. Childhood vaccine schedule revised from 72 to 11 consensus shots in line with European nation average.

37. US withdraws from the World Health Organization (WHO).

38. Created a lasting transparent crypto regulatory framework via GENIUS Act and a strategic Bitcoin Reserve created.

39. Election integrity and citizenship verification measures expanded nationwide. The DOJ is aggressively cleaning up state voter rolls bloated by ineligible voters. US military cyber security experts will monitor election integrity. DOJ/ODNI seized Fulton County, Georgia 2020 ballots over suspected fraud and FBI 2020 fraud investigations in Maricopa County, AZ.

40. Energy dominance unleashed: National Energy Emergency declared and Green New Deal progressively scrapped. 6,000+ drilling permits approved (55% increase) and 13.1 million acres opened for coal leasing and record LNG exports (>100 million tons) and record new nuclear projects advancing toward online status.

41. Trump Accounts launched for newborns with federal seed funding + corporate matching.

42. 175,000 visas of criminals, fraudsters and foreigners calling for violence against the US revoked.

43. 275,000 illegal aliens removed from Social Security rolls; and benefits terminated for 1.4 million illegal aliens.

44. Crackdowns on the rampant rorting of the H1-B business visa programme with the Admin aiming to curb H1-B abuse with a $100,000 application fee.

45. 62,000+ missing migrant children rescued.

A guest post by Ian Boag:

Anyone fortunate enough to own a Pak’N’Save or a New World has an annual income measured in millions. The business model is relatively low margin (4% after tax) plus rebates (maybe 2% or so) for a total of maybe 6% – on a turnover of $100m that is a few millions. Nice for them. There are some novelties about how you get there – eg I can’t just rock up with $10m and tell Fred I want to buy his New World. Even if he likes the number – he can’t sell it to me. And if I already own a New World I can’t buy a Pak’N’Save as well. 

Co-op rules and all that – it is what it is. A “worthiness” check. It would be novel if Fonterra worked that way …

When a small non 4-square grocery gets to buy stuff retail from Pak’N’Save for less than what the (Foodstuffs) wholesaler will sell it for you can see that small non Foodstuffs groceries don’t have much future.

The bottom line is that knocking 50% or whatever out of that tsunami of owner income might drop prices at the till by maybe 3%. Not enough to get excited about. So anyone who wants to make the supermarkets less profitable and give significant savings to customers – by splitting this or that – be that Chris, Chris, Nicola, Chloe or Winston  – is just pushing shit uphill.

All these creative ways to supposedly improve competition and lower prices are hot air and the only real option is to just suck it up. 

The only action that would dent it is to take GST off food and have that passed along. The “what is food?” argument could be dealt to by adopting the Australian classification list. There would be a few classification grizzles that would be dealt with relatively quickly (the Aussies dealt with their big ones a long time ago) and probably an ongoing dribble of complaints that would not really amount to a lot.  The Australians have had 25 years to sort it out. All their big ones were sorted years ago. There will always be a few funnies (hot pie vs cold pie) but they don’t amount to a hill of beans in the scheme of things.

Maybe it is unfair (?) that high earners would get much of the benefit because they spend more on food. I’ve seen numbers that suggest a 2% tweak in the top income tax rate would equalise that and fix the revenue loss. Low income earners would be significantly better off and high income earners would be relatively unaffected – savings from GST removal balanced by a small tweak in their top income tax rate. Whatever.

I can afford the supermarket prices, so they don’t keep me awake at night.  I am just suggesting that removing GST from food is the only lever available to reduce prices significantly within a reasonable timeframe. It could be done quickly, unlike the other ideas being floated. To be pernickety about it, food would be zero-rated rather than exempt. A technical issue.

 We can go on forever debating break-ups, economies of scale,  concerns about foreign investors, lockups of suitable land – yadda yadda –  and any consequent changes would take years. Probably a Royal Commission, appeals, and more. Years and years. The Think Tanks would pontificate. The legal profession would do well. Every man and his dog would pile in. Years and years and years.

GST off food would essentially be “now” …. but the ideological purity of “GST on everything” seems to be more important.  Economists at the OECD praise NZ and they would know. The rest of the world is taking  a while to catch on but we lead

To be clear – all I am saying here is that zero-rating food with a small tweak to the top tax rate would be more or less revenue neutral for the government, help those at the bottom and not be all that punitive to those at the top because they benefit more from the cheaper food. Far simpler than targeted benefits here and payments there and whatever. 

A guest post by Fish Across Face:

When outgoing RNZ Chief Executive Paul Thompson addressed the Select Committee hearing on the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill in February 2024, he began his submission with a remark about how timely the various media representatives’ appearances were.

He reminded all present that the Port Hills bush fires were burning as he spoke, and he was proud of the fact that dozens of journalists were covering the story.

Exactly why a relatively small conflagration required dozens of journalists to cover it escaped me. Certainly, there would be half a dozen on the ground from the main media outlets, but dozens? What conclusions (other than climate change being the villain) would these fearless reporters come to, that would be different to their colleagues? 

I thought, there goes a man of the State.

And indeed, there he does go. After 13 years as CEO of RNZ, including 5 during which its radio arm experienced sustained and serious decline, Mr Thompson is leaving, to be replaced by Jason Winstanley, another experienced and well-liked executive. 

But Jason is from the private sector. He is NZME’s “Chief Audio Officer” (programme director in the old money). When he arrives at RNZ, he will bring with him purpose, intent and imagination – but from the real world. 

Because of this, I imagine he will measure, re-deploy or delete under-performing assets, and with what will be easy money-saving efficiencies, possibly even go old-school and poach from his former sector. There won’t be any mutinies; there are simply no jobs elsewhere. 

As an aside, I also suspect Winstanley’s appointment was arranged at the same time as new RNZ Chair Brent Impey agreed to his new position; one simply would not undertake either job without a trusted partner – both roles are essentially interdependent. 

Soon-to-be former NZME Chief Audio Officer Winstanley may not stay within the lane of Chief ExecutiveOfficer. These positions can be the same thing, and new (ish) CAO Pip Keane will be looking over her shoulder, as will her comrade John Campbell. Whilst Keane is an extremely experienced producer, going back to Holmes days, producers aren’t programmers, and she was John’s during his Campbell Live days. This is important, because that show turned viewers off with its constant, negative advocacy journalism leading up to the 2014 General Election (which John Key won handsomely), and Keane was the gatekeeper for all of it. Campbell Live ended only eight months later.

The cancellation was simply because of low ratings; Mr Campbell told New Zealanders every night that their country was a hellhole, and it was all their fault. They hated him for it and changed channels. 

Fast forward to 2026 and Campbell and Keane are back. Their installations at RNZ are a giant FU to the Luxon government, but one way or the other, Impey and Winstanley will fix this, from Morning Report all the way down. 

Neither man is a seat warmer.

Make no mistake; Jason Winstanley’s appointment is significant; and it’s not just that we now have two proven, professional heavy hitters from the commercial sphere in charge of state owned RNZ (between Winstanley and Impey they have over 70 years’ experience). 

It means the current administration is not doing nothing; they are slowly changing the most left-aligned organization in the country from within, and nobody (except the NZH’s Media Insider) seems to understand how important it is. John Key’s government only trimmed RNZ’s funding. This is systemic.

In 12 months, Radio New Zealand National will be nothing like it is now. If Luxon’s government can do that to this hallowed organization without anybody feeling the needle going in, wait till you see what they do next. 

I’m kind of impressed.

My ears pricked up a week back when ZB reported on recently released 2025/2026 suicide stats.

Like many NZers, people taking their own lives has had an impact on me. My birth father took his own life when I was sixteen and close to meeting him for the first time.

I have also been in schools when suicides have occurred and seen the toll it takes on so many people.

I have, many times, spoken to my good friend, Mike King, about causes, effects and solutions – and had him present in schools I have been involved in and to three separate groups in Russell when I lived there.

As background; many will be aware of a recent interview with David Seymour by Tova O’Brien.

O’Brien asked Seymour whether he thought Māori received special treatment.

“Of course they do,” he responded.

She responded:

“Only 7% of Māori get superannuation when Māori make up 15% of the population. 62% of the prison population is Māori.”

She continued: Māori are less likely to get a prescription, 50% more likely to experience psychosis, and experience diabetes at one and a half times the rate. Māori die younger. Māori receive poorer healthcare. Māori disproportionately fill our prisons.

O’Brien questioned why he had supported the addressing of historic inequality issues for women but not for Māori. Seymour’s response was that “women are a specific group of people” but he does not apply that to Māori.

I know the NZ education system and stats very well – and see no evidence of Māori privilege. Quite the opposite.

The suicide statistics for 2025/2026 are another stark reminder of the societal position of many Māori in our nation. (NB: Most recent stats are listed as “suspected” as full coroner process, etc, have not yet been completed).

Summary 2025/26

– Overall there were 10.5/100,000 (602) suspected suicides. This is down on a high of 13.2/100,000 in 2018/19.

– The male rate was 15.8/100,000
– The female rate was 5.1/100,000
(I have never seen anyone express qualms about targeted programmes for men).

– The highest age group rate was 17.4/100,000 for age 30-34.

– The Māori rate was 15.8/100,000
– The European rate was 12/100,000
– The Pasifika rate was 5.9/100,000
– The Asian rate was 3.2/100,000

It seems clear that there is a strong ethnicity component in these statistics that needs full addressing rather than the brush off that all people need to be treated the same and that Māori in NZ currently receive “special treatment”.

Two quotes from Mike King:

“A lot of young Māori men coming into puberty are thinking about what it means to be a man and I think Māori men in particular have a skewed outlook on that,” says King.

“They believe being a man in Māori culture is to be staunch, to be the protector and the provider and to show strength at all times. A depressive thought or a suicidal thought won’t kill you. But holding on to that thought and trying to battle through it alone, that’s the killer. So, what we need to do is create a society that makes it OK for men to talk about their problems.”

[email protected]

The previous Labour Government abolished almost all the health targets, did a distarous mega-merger during a pandemic, and outcomes in the health sector fell across the board. The health sector is still under great strain, but the data shows that there has been considerable improvement in all five target areas. This is the latest data to June 2026.

Those getting cancer treatment within a month fell from 90% to 84% under Labour. It is now halfway back to the 90% target at 87%. In real terms that means 600 more people a year with cancer got to start treatment within a month.

The child immunisation rate dropped to 71%. At the change of government it was 77% and it is now up to 84%. In real terms that is 3,000 more children a year vaccinated.

This has been one of the hardest ones to turn around. It started dropping well before Covid-19. It fell to 67%. It is now at 76%. That is 120,000 more ED patients who got dealt with in under six hours.

Another one that fell away prior to Covid-19. Has been stubborn at around 60% but is now at 67%, In real terms that’s almost 15,000 more people who got to see a specialist within four months.

Around a 15 percentage point increase in those who get elective surgery or treatment within four months. This is around 11,000 more patients who got elective surgery in the last year within four months.

The oldest bureaucratic trick in the world when an agency or council is asked to find savings, is for them to announce they will cut the most popular and liked programs, rather than the much larger wasteful pet projects.

We see this with Wellington City Council:

Funding for Te Papa, opening hours for galleries, the city’s new years’ eve fireworks display, and school swimming subsidies, are on the chopping block as Wellington City Council tries to meet rates caps.

Deputy mayor Ben McNulty said at a Tuesday meeting the council needed to grapple with “nasty decisions” to find $60 million in savings in order to comply with a four percent rates cap ordered by the government.

The staff obviously have the Crs well trained up, if this is where they are focusing on to save money.

Are they going to scrap the Organics Processing Solution, which will see CO2 emissions drop at a cost of $9,375 per tonne, compared to the ETS cost of $57?

We also have the $511 million sludge minimisation plant.

I blogged the following in 2024:

1. $593 million on social housing
2. $400 million for a sludge minimisation facility at Moa Point
3. $330 million on rebuilding the town hall so we have another music venue
4. $240 million on Civic Square 
5. $236 million on food recycling
6. $189 million on Te Matapihi library
7. $180 million on the Takina convention centre
8. $160 million on cycleways
9. $139 million on removing cars and redeveloping the Golden Mile
10. $55 million to “upgrade” Thorndon Quay
11. $42 million on renovating St James Theatre
12. $32 million to Reading Cinemas (attempted but failed)
13. $13 million on a carpark building

Yet they claim the nasty government is going to force them to stop inflicting 20% rates increases on residents, so hence they need to cut subsidies for school swimming!!