On my Patreon (paywalled) I write why the world is a safer place today. I wrote on Friday why I thought Trump would attack Fordow and was surprised to be proven right within 48 hours.

One extract:

They can of course restart their nuclear programme, but there are two great hurdles in their way. The first is that Mossad has shown great skill in their intelligence operations in Iran, and it is highly likely they would learn of the locations of any new enrichment facilities. Iran is not as closed as North Korea.

The second is their programme is estimated to have cost up to US$500 billion and do they really want to spend tens of billions on another attempt, now they know the US will bomb any future facilities if they get close to nuclear capable.

Labour saw a huge blowout in the numbers of households in emergency housing (motels) from 1,000 to over 5,000, falling back to around 3,000 at the change of government.

The government set a target to reduce this by 75% to 800 by 2023. It is 2025 and they have achieved that, with only 528 families left in emergency housing.

Politico reports:

The Iranian government ordered an operative to assassinate Donald Trump before the 2024 election, Manhattan federal prosecutors said Friday, the latest in a string of assassination plots directed at the former and future president in recent months. 

Prosecutors charged Farhad Shakeri with murder-for-hire and providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization. He is believed to be in Iran and remains at large, prosecutors said. 

So the Supreme Leader approved an assassination of Donald Trump, and now Donald Trump is the person stopping Israel from assassinating the Iranian Supreme Leader.

That wouldn’t have me sleeping well at night, if I was the Supreme Leader.

The Herald reports:

A key donor of Wellington mayoral candidate Ray Chung has been revealed, with rich-list philanthropist Sir Mark Dunajtschik confirming his financial backing for the mayoral hopeful.

Chung, currently a first-term city councillor, is running to lead the capital city on a platform of cutting key projects to implement zero rates increases. …

The philanthropist’s contributions to the city include a $50 million donation towards a new acute mental health unit at Hutt Hospital as well as $53m to build the city’s new children’s hospital.

Mark Dunajtschik is a great Wellingtonian and New Zealand. He cares massively about Wellington, so it is great to see him backing a candidate who wants to have 0% rates increases instead of 20% increases.

The Government set a target of reducing the number of victims of violent crime from 185,000 to 165,000 by 2030. They have already achieved that.

The new three strikes law is now operative. It is not as strong as I wanted, but still should lead to the worst criminals not getting out so quickly.

There are 43 offences (serious violent and sexual) that can cause a strike. How the strikes work:

• 1st – warning given if sentence is at least 12 months imprisonment
• 2nd – final warning given if sentence is at least 24 months imprisonment. No parole for sentence unless it is murder in which case the non-parole period is 17 years (of 15 if plead guilty).
• 3rd – if the sentence would normally be at least 24 months, then it is the maximum sentence for that offence (or 80% if they plead guilty). If manslaughter then a 10 year sentence (8 if plead guilty). If murder then a non parole period of 20 years (18 if plead guilty)

The normal manifestly unjust exception applies.

The US has bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear sites in Iran using B-2 stealth bombers. It is not yet known what types of bombs were used, or the damage to the sites.

The latest attendance data shows the Government has reversed the disastrous trend under Labour of plummeting school attendance. Regular attendance is up from 40% to 66%. Still a long way to go to reach the 80% target.

In terms of actual students, there are 185,000 more students attending school regularly than three years ago.

The area of most concern is those not even attending 70% of the time. Over three years this has dropped from 14% to 6%, or from 103,000 to 51,000.

This chart shows Trump’s approval on various issues. His tariffs have tanked his rating on inflation, and even his rating on immigration has gone negative because of over-reach.

Vision for Wellington announced:

Infometrics CEO Brad Olsen, Moore Wilson’s co-owner Julie Moore, company director Paul Ridley-Smith and Infratil’s director of sustainability Louise Tong will turn the spotlight on the city’s ballooning operating costs and debt – and how the city can turn its financial problems around and support business growth. Leading business journalist and commentator, Fran O’Sullivan, will moderate the panel conversation.

“Wellington has far and away the highest operating costs per capita of major cities like Auckland, Christchurch, Hamilton, Tauranga and Lower Hutt,” said Paul Ridley-Smith.

And the Wellington City Council already has the highest debt per capita of other significant New Zealand cities – with the debt burden forecast to climb significantly, he says.

“At the end of June 2025, it is expected that the Council’s debt will be four times higher than in 2019. Total Council operating costs are forecast to rise by 86 percent between 2022–2026 and capital expenditure to double in the same period.”

Louise Tong says Council spending has significantly increased across the board since 2019 with interest costs (+165 percent), urban development (+117 percent), Councillors and staff (+55 percent), waste reduction/energy conservation (+50 percent), insurance (+50 percent), utilities (+49 percent) and suppliers and contractors (+48 percent) leading the way. …

In summary, the panel claims to have identified $2.8 billion in potential savings over the next ten years.

“We need to pull some big levers to arrive at big savings,” said Tong. “But a financial turn-around for the city is possible. And with more money in the city’s back pocket, we can flourish and deliver on our potential.”

The 20% rates increases are not due to infrastructure. They are due to political decisions by elected Councillors.

Liam Hehir notes:

Imagine if somebody repeatedly accused you of genocide. Would you want them in government with you? Would you be offended at the suggestion? Or would you tacitly concede the high ground to them?

For Chris Hipkins and Labour, this isn’t a thought experiment. 

The pattern was established in October 2021, when Te Pāti Māori first crossed what should be a serious line. As COVID-19 cases rose among Māori communities, co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer didn’t just criticise the government’s pandemic response. She accused it of genocide.

“If the government is prepared to open the borders as soon as our country is 90% vaccinated, they are willingly holding Māori up to be the sacrificial lambs,” the Guardian reports her saying. “It is a modern form [of] genocide.”

You would have to be pretty desperate for power to consider going into government with a party that accused you of genocide. A self respecting party would say we won’t deal with a party that deals in extremism, division and such inflammatory language.

When Te Pāti Māori made genocide accusations, there was no media firestorm demanding accountability. No sustained questioning about whether such language was appropriate. No editorial demands for more measured discourse. No demanding interviews or editorial pushback.

The accusations were tacitly framed as legitimate expressions of concern.

When ACT leader David Seymour merely met with representatives of the 2022 anti-mandate protest at Parliament he was pilloried. Despite carefully qualifying his engagement and rejecting the protest’s more odious elements, Seymour was branded “irresponsible” by then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. National’s Christopher Luxon also felt the need to distance himself from Seymour.

But when Te Pāti Māori hurled literal genocide accusations at the Government, there were no hand-wringing editorials.

The double standard at work.

David Seymour took part in a debate at Oxford Union. Most of the reports were fairly balanced, but the one from Harriette Boucher (could she be related to the owner of Stuff?) at The Post said they did a straw poll of 7 audience members and none of them backed Seymour.

What they didn’t mention was that the actual vote at the debate was very close – I think 98 to 83. Considering the topic was “no one can be illegal on stolen land” with Seymour’s team opposed, that was a remarkably close result. Even more remarkable as his two teammates were both Trump supporting Republicans who would hardly appeal to liberal Oxford students!

The chance of choosing 7 members of the audience at random who all voted the other way is around 2.1%.

Political reports:

The European Union and Australia overnight announced they would start negotiating a “Security and Defence Partnership” and noted their commitment to “advancing free trade negotiations.”

In a statement announcing the planned defense partnership, the European Commission said it “will provide a framework for current and future cooperation including in areas such as defence industry, cyber and counter-terrorism.” But Brussels stressed the future pact “does not have military deployment obligations.”

This is a very good idea, and one NZ may want to emulate (or join). It is apparent the US is no longer a reliable security partner. NATO is effectively defunct (as Trump has said he will not unconditionally help NATO allies who are attacked), so we need new security alliances. These shouldn’t be obligations to defend, but advancing mutual interests, sharing technology and ensuring forces can deploy together.

The Herald reports:

GDP grew at 0.8% in the first quarter of 2025 – stronger than even the most optimistic of economists’ forecasts. 

Activity increased in the March 2025 quarter across all three high-level industry groups: primary industries, goods-producing industries, and services industries.

The Reserve Bank had forecast 0.4% for the quarter, but more recently, the consensus of economists moved to 0.7%.

That’s a pretty good result. It is only one quarter and with great international uncertainty, no one should think we’re guaranteed to keep growth at these levels. But regardless it is good news.

The Washington Post reports:

But there are also hints that she’s still living with some trauma from her time as Prime Minister.

She pre-signed all her books and only takes questions at the event that were submitted in advance. She’s ushered in and out of the room in record time by several large security guards.

I’m sure this is normal for book authors to require questions in advance!

At my Patreon (paywalled) I cover the tactical and strategic issues at play in the Israel-Iran war, and why they lead me to a conclusion that President Trump will authorise US forces to take out the Fordrow nuclear site in Iran.

The Herald reports:

Ngāti Hine leader Pita Tipene is ruling out a settlement under this Government after remarks made by Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. 

Goldsmith said on Tuesday the Government would not agree to Treaty settlements that disputed whether the Crown is now sovereign. 

Under the previous Labour Government, an initial deed of settlement with Te Whānau-ā-Apanui was drawn up which included the first case of a clause agreeing to disagree on who holds sovereignty.

Goldsmith said the coalition Government was uncomfortable with the clause and was not prepared to progress the settlement without it being removed.

Absolutely correct. There can be only one sovereign government in an area. You can have a form of sovereignty within tribal lands such as in the US. But that does not apply in NZ. Maori do not live on reservations. They live in rural areas, suburbs, towns and cities.

Tipene said although his hapū was “dead keen” on progressing a settlement, they would also want a clause like that in the Apanui deed.

“If the Government is going to progress on that basis (of not allowing such clauses), I will be the first one to say it is impossible to progress anything on those grounds.

“Our people have been very, very clear that we want to be proactive and we want to move forward but that is a bottom line that accepting the Crown is sovereign is totally unacceptable.”

This is a line the Government can’t compromise on. If Ngati Hine refuse to settle, then that is their decision.

If Labour want to go into an election promising that sovereignty is negotiable, then good luck to them.

Stuff reports:

There has been a lot written about Cook Strait ferries lately but far off in the distance, a new ship that will sail between the North and South Islands is slowly making its way here.

Called Livia, the ship has had a fresh coat of paint to transform it from the Stena Line colours into the livery of StraitNZ Bluebridge.

Built in 2008, the ship’s original name was Norman Voyager and it made its maiden voyage that same year between Rosslare, Ireland and the French port of Le Havre.

A number of ferry lines operated the ship until it was bought in 2021 by Stena Line to sail the Baltic Sea. Bluebridge then purchased the ship in March, 2025.

Bluebridge manages to find and purchase suitable ferries without any fuss or costing taxpayers a cent. Why can’t Kiwirail do the same?