9/11 25 years on

I just read this transcript of the call from Todd Beamer on United Airlines Flight 93, and it made me cry. I recall reading it back in 2001, but not since. 9/11 changed the entire world, but it also was about huge personal tragedies for families and friends, and feats of heroism.

I also was very moved by this post by Maria Konaikova, who was a babysitter for a family whose mum died in 9/11. It was also very emotional reading it, thinking both of the family who lost their mum, but also the impact it has had on Maria for 25 years.

Anyway here is the transcript in full. Many of us recall his last two words, but reading the entire thing is worthwhile:

Todd: Hello… Operator…listen to me…I can’t speak very loud. – This is an emergency. I’m a passenger on a United flight to San Francisco.. We have a situation here….Our plane has been hijacked…..can you understand me?

Lisa: (exhaling a deep breath to herself) I understand… Can the hijackers see you talking on the phone?

Todd: No

Lisa: Can you tell me how many hijackers are on the plane?

Todd: There are three that we know of.

Lisa: Can you see any weapons? What kind of weapons do they have?

Todd: Yes…. they don’t have guns….they have knives – they took over the plane with knives.

Lisa: Do you mean…like steak knives?

Todd: No, these are razor knives…like box cutters.

Lisa: Can you tell what country these people are from?

Todd: No…..I don’t know. They sound like they’re from the mid-east.

Lisa: Have they said what they want?

Todd: Someone announced from the cockpit that there was a bomb on board. He said he was the captain and to stay in our seats and stay quiet.

He said that they were meeting these men’s demands and returning to the airport… It was very broken English, and… I’m telling you…it sounded fake!

Lisa: Ok sir, please give me your name.

Todd: My name is Todd Beamer.

Lisa: Ok Todd….my name is Lisa…Do you know your flight number? If you can’t remember, it’s on your ticket.

Todd: It’s United Flight 93.

Lisa: Now Todd, can you try to tell me exactly what happened?

Todd: Two of the hijackers were sitting in first class near the cockpit. A third one was sitting near the back of the coach section. The two up front got into the cockpit somehow; there was shouting. The third hijacker said he had a bomb. It looks like a bomb. He’s got it tied to his waist with a red belt of some kind.

Lisa: So is the door to the cockpit open?

Todd: No, the hijackers shut it behind them.

Lisa: Has anyone been injured?

Todd: Yes, ..they…they killed one passenger sitting in first class. There’s been lots of shouting. We don’t know if the pilots are dead or alive. A flight attendant told me that the pilot and copilot had been forced from the cockpit and may have been wounded.

Lisa: Where is the 3rd hijacker now Todd?

Todd: He’s near the back of the plane. They forced most of the passengers into first class. There are fourteen of us here in the back. Five are flight attendants. He hasn’t noticed that I slipped into this pantry to get the phone. The guy with the bomb ordered us to sit on the floor in the rear of the plane……….oh Jesus.. Help!

Lisa: Todd….are you ok? Tell me what’s happening!

Todd: Hello…..We’re going down….I think we’re going to crash……Wait – wait a minute. No, we’re leveling off….we’re ok. I think we may be turning around…..That’s it – we changed directions. Do you hear me….we’re flying east again.

Lisa: Ok Todd…. What’s going on with the other passengers?

Todd: Everyone is… really scared. A few passengers with cell phones have made calls to relatives. A guy, Jeremy, was talking to his wife just before the hijacking started. She told him that hijackers had crashed two planes into the World Trade Center……Lisa is that true??

Lisa: Todd…..I have to tell you the truth…..it’s very bad. The World Trade Center is gone. Both of the towers have been destroyed.

Todd: Oh God —help us!

Lisa: A third plane was taken over by terrorists. It crashed into the Pentagon in Washington DC. Our country is under attack….and I’m afraid that your plane may be part of their plan.

Todd: Oh dear God. Dear God…….Lisa, will you do something for me?

Lisa: I’ll try….if I can….Yes.

Todd: I want you to call my wife and my kids for me and tell them what’s happened. Promise me you’ll call..

Lisa: I promise – I’ll call.

Todd: Our home number is 201 353-1073…….You have the same name as my wife…Lisa….We’ve been married for 10 years. She’s pregnant with our 3rd child. Tell her that I love her…….(choking up)..I’ll always love her..(clearing throat) We have two boys.. David, he’s 3 and Andrew, he’s 1…..Tell them……(choking) tell them that their daddy loves them and that he is so proud of them. (clearing throat again) Our baby is due January 12th…..I saw an ultra sound…..it was great….we still don’t know if it’s a girl or a boy………Lisa?

Lisa: (barely able to speak) I’ll tell them, I promise Todd.

Todd: I’m going back to the group—if I can get back I will…

Lisa: Todd, leave this line open…are you still there?……

Lisa: (dials the phone..) Hello, FBI, my name is Lisa Jefferson, I’m a telephone supervisor for GTE. I need to report a terrorist hijacking of a United Airlines Flight 93….Yes I’ll hold.

Goodwin: Hello, this is Agent Goodwin.. I understand you have a hijacking situation?

Lisa: Yes sir, I’ve been talking with a passenger, a Todd Beamer, on Flight 93 who managed to get to an air phone unnoticed.

Goodwin: Where did this flight originate, and what was its destination?

Lisa: The flight left Newark New Jersey at 8 A.M. departing for San Francisco. The hijackers took over the plane shortly after takeoff, and several minutes later the plane changed course – it is now flying east.

Goodwin: Ms Jefferson…I need to talk to someone aboard that plane. Can you get me thru to the plane’s phone?

Lisa: I still have that line open sir, I can patch you through on a conference call…hold a mo…..

Todd: Hello Lisa, Lisa are you there?

Lisa: Yes, I’m here. Todd, I made a call to the FBI, Agent Goodwin is on the line and will be talking to you as well.

Todd: The others all know that this isn’t your normal hijacking. Jeremy called his wife again on his cell phone. She told him more about the World Trade Center and all.

Goodwin: Hello Todd. This is Agent Goodwin with the FBI. We have been monitoring your flight. Your plane is on a course for Washington, DC. These terrorists sent two planes into the World Trade Center and one plane into the Pentagon. Our best guess is that they plan to fly your plane into either the White House or the United States Capital Building.

Todd: I understand…hold on……I’ll…….I’ll be back..

Lisa: Mr Goodwin, how much time do they have before they get to Washington?

Goodwin: Not long ma’am. They changed course over Cleveland; they’re approaching Pittsburgh now. Washington may be twenty minutes away.

Todd: (breathing a little heavier) The plane seems to be changing directions just a little. It’s getting pretty rough up here. The plane is flying real erratic….We’re not going to make it out of here.

Lisa: Todd, what are you going to do?

Todd: We’ve hatched a plan. Four of us are going to rush the hijacker with the bomb. After we take him out, we’ll break into the cockpit. A stewardess is getting some boiling water to throw on the hijackers at the controls. We’ll get them….and we’ll take them out. Lisa, …..will you do one last thing for me?

Lisa: Yes…What is it?

Todd: Would you pray with me?

They pray: Our Father which art in Heaven
Hallowed be thy name,
Thy kingdom come, thy will be done
on earth as it is in heaven.
Give us this day our daily bread,
And forgive us our trespasses
As we forgive our trespassers,
And lead us not into temptation
But deliver us from evil
For thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory

The Lord is my shepherd, I shall not want…
He makes me to lie down in green pastures
He leads me beside the still waters
He restores my soul
He leads me in paths of righteousness
for His name’s sake
Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death
I will fear no evil, for thou art with me….

Todd: (softer) God help me…Jesus help me….(clears throat and louder)

Are you guys ready?……

Let’s Roll……

Oink oink oink

The ABC reports:

Independent MP Helen Haines has called for a merit-based assessment process for the $560 million Commonwealth grants program.

The Centre for Public Integrity found the government overwhelmingly directed grants to Labor seats and marginal seats the party wanted to win at the 2025 federal election.

It found 45 electorates were not invited to the Major and Local Community Infrastructure (MLCI) Program and received no funding.

That’s a new level of pork barrel politics! 90% of the funds went to Labour held or marginal seats, and only 10% to seats where Labor was not competitive.

General Debate 12 September 2026

Just say no

The Herald reports:

The Eiffel Tower closed to the public on Monday after staff went on strike over the removal of female employees during a private visit by a Hindu religious group.

Members of the Bochasanwasi Akshar Purushottam Swaminarayan Sanstha (Baps) – an ultra-conservative Hindu denomination from India – visited the tower on Saturday as part of wider celebrations to inaugurate a temple built by the group near Paris.

During the event, Baps allegedly requested that female staff be “set aside”.

The General Confederation of Labour (CGT) trade union, on behalf of Eiffel Tower staff, said management told women they were not to enter or pass through specific areas while the delegation was present.

This is a strike I support. How hard is out to just say no?

All you have to say is “I appreciate you religious views, but France is a secular country by law, with guaranteed equality of the sexes, and if removing women from view is a condition of visiting the Eiffel Tower, then I’m sorry but we can’t and won’t do that”

A huge legal conflict of interest

Stuff reports:

A prominent lawyer’s law firm was investigated over conflict of interest concerns relating to a company she and a colleague established to write cultural reports for clients.

Stuff understands Sumudu Thode’s law firm, Thode Utting & Co, received more than $350,000 for cultural and drug and alcohol reports produced by her company – Integral Reports Ltd (IRL) – through the taxpayer-funded Legal Aid scheme.

Thode and a senior associate at the firm, John Moroney, established IRL in 2020, with the pair listed as directors and 50-50 shareholders.

A King’s Counsel appointed by the Ministry of Justice after a formal complaint found no evidence that Thode Utting lawyers inappropriately influenced the reports, but did find there was a “potential” conflict of interest, the ministry says.

There’s nothing potential about it.

The job of a defence lawyer is to get the shortest possible sentence for their clients. So called expert reports are meant to be independent and dispassionate. When the defence lawyers own the firm producing the reports, then of course they are all going to say a variation of “This person had a terrible background, so they should get a shorter sentence”. It is entirely predictable, with the impact being the defence lawyers make heaps more money from taxpayers from getting shorter sentences for their clients.

Thode Utting, of which she is the principal, has offices in Auckland and Whangārei and is one of the top 10 Legal Aid firms in terms of payments received, earning around $2m a year in recent years, according to ministry figures.

That presumably excludes the $350k through the subsidiary company.

Thode said in a statement that she and Moroney had no role in writing the reports and did not influence the content of any report in any way.

You don’t need to influence the reports when you own the company. Those who write the reports know who the owners are, and sure as hell know if they write lots off reports saying “Actually there is not really anything in this background to justify a shorter sentence”, they won’t have happy bosses.

“At every appropriate opportunity, the IRL director and shareholder interests have been disclosed, including to the Ministry of Justice and other interested parties,” she said.

“We have always been open about our ownership of the company.”

Lawyers will find loopholes to make money. But the Government should change the rules so it is very clear that lawyers can’t own companies that produce independent expert reports that get used in courts. Huge conflict of interest.

20 electorates now profiled

I have now completed 20 electorate race profiles on my Patreon (paywalled). They are from Invercargill to Keneperu, so six more since last week.

So far I have:

  • Safe National: 6
  • Likely National: 2
  • Leans National: 1
  • Too Close Too Call: 1
  • Leans Labour: 3
  • Safe Labour: 5
  • Likely Green: 1
  • Leans Green: 1

The next ones will be Hutt South, Remutaka, Kapiti, Wairarapa, Ramgitikei, Palmerston North and Whanganui

The housing challenge

The Post editorial:

The latest QV property data supported what many around the country are feeling: house prices have fallen another 1.7% nationally since the start of the year.

This now makes the correction from peak to trough a stonking 22.7% in Auckland, 31% in Wellington and 14.2% nationally.

That s a huge decrease in Wellington and Auckland. In my view it was absolutely necessary though. The ratio of the average house price to the average income was a horrific 8.2, and it has fallen to 5.8. In Auckland it peaked at 10.0.

The years to save a 20% deposit has dropped from 13.4 to 9.6 and the share of household income on mortgage dropped from 56% to 42%. These are all great things, especially for younger people.

For the current Government, this has been a blessing, but mostly a short-term curse. On the one hand, with a Minister of Housing, Chris Bishop, who explicitly wanted prices to fall, it is a demonstrable success. On the other hand, the wealth effect of housing – where people feel wealthier because their main asset is worth more money and they can borrow against that increased worth – has not worked in this Government’s favour.

To put the Auckland falls in dollar terms: the average house value has dropped about $350,000. In Wellington it is about $360,000. The amount of vanishing net wealth – even if only short-lived and on paper – is significant.

This is the challenge. The drop in house prices has been necessary, and even essential. However when the average house is worth $350k less than five years ago, households feel poorer (as we don’t factor in our next house is also cheaper). We are less likely to buy say a new car, renovate the house, even go on holiday, when we feel our net worth is lower (on paper).

This is almost certainly part of why economic growth has been subdued. The answer is not to have house prices become unaffordable again though.

General Debate 11 September 2026

Measuring progress

Radio NZ has this summary of the Government’s progress towards its nine targets:

So of the nine targets four are on track – both crime ones (already met the 2030 target), emergency housing and climate. Two will probably be achieved – the waiting time for elective treatment and the education attendance.

So six basically looking good. Contrast that to Labour’s multiple targets where they didn’t even achieve 5% of what they promised.

The ED waiting times one is possible it will get back to the 95% within six hours it was under the last National Government. But progress is slow.

Finally the two that won’t be met are the employment and education ones. The education one is critical and only updated every couple of years (I think). Even if you get everything right at Year 1, it takes seven years to flow through to Year 8.

I Know the post is long but PISA is a big deal.

Hello KBers … if it is too long don’t read it … but the outcomes of our education system are important.

What NZ’s 2025 PISA Results Tell Us

Alwyn Poole — with analytical/formatting support from AI

General Analysis

My take on implications

  • Even small improvements, or arrested decline, provide some hope — and yes, I know “hope isn’t a plan”, but it can be a motivator for seeking further and more substantial improvements.
  • There is little here to give politicians or any ilk bragging rights. These 15-year-olds would have had two years under National, six years under Labour, and two further years under National. The curriculum changes under National will have had little or no effect, although positive energy around improving achievement may have helped.
  • These students also endured the Covid response, which possibly gives further hope that children can achieve despite tough times.
  • There is a lot more to do, and the concerns around the huge gaps related to socio-economics remain. The fact that NZ’s total EQI spend is only $250 million — as little as 3% of funding for the highest-EQI schools — is a major issue that needs addressing. A more detailed and consistent curriculum may have marginal effects on equity, but there is a great deal more to be done to close the gaps, as a public education system should.

1. Overall picture: New Zealand is still performing above the OECD average

New Zealand students scored above the OECD average in mathematics, reading and science, and New Zealand also had a relatively high proportion of top-performing students.

For example:

New Zealand PISA 2025 performance compared with the OECD average
MeasureNew ZealandOECD averageDifference
Science – Level 2+81%74%+7 pts
Mathematics – Level 2+71%65%+6 pts
Reading – Level 2+77%69%+8 pts
Science – Level 5/613%7%+6 pts
Mathematics – Level 5/611%8%+3 pts
Reading – Level 5+14%6%+8 pts

However, the trend is much more concerning than the absolute position.

2. The biggest concern is the long-term decline

The 2025 results were approximately the same as 2022, but:

mathematics is below 2018 and 2015 levels;

reading is below 2018 and 2015 levels;

science has been comparatively stable for more than a decade;

the gap between high and low performers widened in reading.

Even more concerning:

Since 2015, the percentage of students below Level 2 increased by:

8 percentage points in mathematics

5 percentage points in reading

no significant change in science.

New Zealand still has a reasonably strong education system by international standards, but there is ongoing evidence of deterioration in foundational academic performance.

Key needs for improvement are:

Mathematics: strengthen foundational numeracy, confidence with problem solving, and sustained achievement over time.

Literacy and reading: improve comprehension, vocabulary development, critical reading, and written response skills.

Problem solving: build students’ ability to apply knowledge in unfamiliar and real-world contexts.

Independent learning: develop study planning, self-regulation, reflection, and effective help-seeking habits.

Academic resilience: support perseverance, confidence, and the ability to keep learning when work becomes challenging.

3. There is a significant achievement gap associated with socioeconomic status

The highest socioeconomic group outperformed the lowest socioeconomic group by 89 points in science. The OECD average gap was 85 points.

Between 2015 and 2025, New Zealand’s socioeconomic performance gap in science remained stable, while the OECD average gap narrowed.

This indicates that simply maintaining the current system may not be enough to reduce educational inequality.

The data also show that only 13% of disadvantaged New Zealand students achieved in the top quarter of science performance.

4. Student mindset is a major priority

New Zealand students demonstrate relatively positive attitudes:

78% say they are curious about many different things;

63% say they make additional effort when work becomes challenging;

74% demonstrate a growth mindset.

Students with a growth mindset in New Zealand had a 59-point science performance advantage compared with students with a fixed mindset, after socioeconomic factors were taken into account.

That is substantially larger than the OECD average difference of 28 points.

Recommendation

Our education programmes should therefore not focus exclusively on teaching content.

They should incorporate:

  • growth mindset;
  • perseverance;
  • goal setting;
  • learning strategies;
  • confidence;
  • problem solving;
  • reflection;
  • independent learning.

5. Self-directed learning is a clear weakness

This is one of the clearest areas where an education provider could potentially add value.

Only about 34% of New Zealand students reported that they often or very often plan their approach to studying.

Only 45% regularly ask themselves questions about the material to check whether they have understood it.

This suggests that many students may have reasonable academic ability but lack strong learning-to-learn skills.

And the report provides evidence that these skills matter.

A one-unit increase in:

  • goal-setting → +6 science points
  • help-seeking → +11 science points

A clear aim of our system should be teaching students how to learn, rather than simply giving them more academic content – or simply relying on a “knowledge rich curriculum.”

6. School engagement is another significant issue

Attendance is still poor – although we have recently seen some incremental change.

In 2025:

32% of students reported missing at least one full day of school during the previous two weeks;

OECD average: 22%.

Attendance is closely connected to learning opportunity.

7. Classroom environments need attention

In New Zealand, classroom disruption is a significant concern:

24% of students said they cannot work well in most or all lessons.

41% reported noise and disorder disrupting most or every science lesson.

36% said classmates do not listen to the teacher.

Students need learning environments where they can:

  • concentrate without unnecessary disruption;
  • participate confidently in class activities;
  • ask questions and receive clear explanations;
  • collaborate productively with classmates; and
  • receive individual support when needed.

8. Teacher support is relatively strong — but has declined

New Zealand students reported relatively positive teacher support:

75% said teachers show interest in every student’s learning;

69% said teachers continue teaching until students understand;

79% said teachers give extra help when needed.

However, these figures have declined compared with 2015.

So the issue does not appear to be simply “New Zealand teachers aren’t supporting students.”

Instead, the system appears to be under pressure.

9. Digital learning and AI are changing the education market

New Zealand students reported spending approximately:

2.5 hours per day using digital devices at school for learning.

The OECD average was 1.7 hours.

AI adoption is also already significant.

47% of New Zealand students reported using AI chatbots to help them learn at least once a week.

Other uses include:

  • preliminary research: 32%;
  • summarising texts: 28%;
  • drafting writing assignments: 24%.

We need to teach students how to use AI correctly for learning.

For example:

AI-assisted learning + critical thinking + verification + independent reasoning.

10. Digital distraction remains a real problem

As I said – when the cell phone ban was introduced – students will find a way around it.

New Zealand students use digital devices more than the OECD average:

38% reported that their peers are often distracted by digital devices during most or all science lessons. The OECD average is 28%.

11. Bullying is a significant issue

25% of New Zealand students reported being victims of at least one form of bullying a few times per month or more. The OECD average was 20%.

The report also identifies a significant relationship between cyberbullying and achievement.

Students reporting certain forms of cyberbullying scored, on average, 54 points lower in science than their peers.

We need to focus on:

  • student wellbeing;
  • belonging;
  • peer relationships;
  • respectful communication;
  • digital citizenship.

12. Parent engagement has weakened

In 2025:

75% of students said parents/guardians asked at least weekly what they did at school;

only 43% reported weekly discussions about problems at school.

In 2022 these figures were 81% and 55%.

As I have always said parents need to be a significant part of the learning ecosystem and very much welcomed by schools as partners.

13. There are significant limitations on the New Zealand PISA data

Our:

  • student response rate was below the target;
  • student exclusions exceeded the tolerance;
  • school participation rate was below target.

The OECD estimates that the reported mean scores could be 10–15 points higher than hypothetical scores including non-respondents.

However, the OECD also says that because the 2022 results were biased in a similar direction, comparisons between 2022 and 2025 are unlikely to be materially affected.

AI says:

“PISA 2025 provides a strong directional indicator of the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand education, while the OECD notes limitations in the New Zealand sample and recommends caution when interpreting absolute scores.”

Overall Assessment

I would rate the education environment identified by this report as:

Overall assessment of New Zealand’s education environment based on PISA 2025 indicators
AreaAssessment
Overall academic performanceStrong relative to OECD
Long-term mathematics trendConcerning
Long-term reading trendConcerning
ScienceRelatively stable
High achieversStrong
Low achieversSignificant concern
Socioeconomic inequalitySignificant
Growth mindsetStrong opportunity
Self-directed learningWeakness
AttendanceConcerning
Classroom disciplineConcerning
Teacher supportRelatively strong
Digital learningMajor opportunity
AI in educationMajor emerging opportunity
BullyingSignificant concern
Parent engagementDeclining

 

Case Study: Comparing New Zealand’s 2025 PISA Results with Estonia

Our Prime Minister has often reference Estonia as a relevant/exemplar nation. So – here is a brief report on achievement, equity, and policy implications

Summary

In PISA 2025, both New Zealand and Estonia performed above the OECD average across the main domains of science, mathematics and reading. Estonia, however, remained one of the strongest-performing education systems internationally, with results near the top of the OECD and Europe. New Zealand’s results were solid and broadly stable compared with 2022, but they showed a larger spread of achievement and a continuing challenge in mathematics and equity.

Headline results

DomainNew ZealandEstoniaOECD averageComparison
Science509527482Estonia scored 18 points higher than New Zealand.
Mathematics480508463Estonia scored 28 points higher than New Zealand.
Reading497499461The two countries were very close, with Estonia 2 points higher.
Computational problem solving531Noted as among Europe’s strongest performers500New Zealand performed strongly in this innovative domain; Estonia was also reported as a European leader.

Science: Science was the major domain in PISA 2025. New Zealand’s average score of 509 was above the OECD average and broadly stable over recent PISA cycles. Estonia’s score of 527 placed it among the world’s leading systems and first in Europe according to Estonian education reporting. The gap suggests that Estonia’s students, on average, demonstrated stronger science literacy and application of scientific knowledge.

Mathematics: Mathematics is the clearest area of difference. New Zealand’s average of 480 remained above the OECD average, but Estonia’s 508 was substantially higher. New Zealand also reported that 29% of students were below the baseline proficiency level in mathematics, indicating a significant challenge for foundational numeracy.

Reading: Reading was New Zealand’s strongest area relative to Estonia, with the two countries almost level: New Zealand scored 497 and Estonia 499. However, Estonia’s reading score had declined compared with earlier cycles, while New Zealand’s reading result was broadly similar to 2022 and remained above the OECD average.

Equity and spread of achievement

New Zealand’s results point to a continuing equity concern. Although the achievement gap between advantaged and disadvantaged students narrowed in 2025, New Zealand still had above-average variation in achievement, meaning outcomes differed widely between students.

Estonia’s system is widely noted for combining high performance with comparatively strong equity, where socio-economic background has less impact on learning outcomes than in many OECD systems.

Interpretation for New Zealand

New Zealand’s PISA 2025 results should be read as cautiously positive. Achievement appears to have stabilised after earlier declines and students remain above OECD averages.

At the same time, Estonia shows that higher average performance and stronger equity can coexist. The comparison suggests three priorities for New Zealand: strengthen foundational mathematics, reduce the long tail of underachievement, and continue improving support for disadvantaged learners without lowering expectations for high performers.

Policy lessons from Estonia

Equity with high expectations: Estonia’s results suggest that broad access to quality learning can lift average achievement while keeping gaps comparatively smaller.

Strong science foundations: Estonia’s high science score indicates the value of coherent curriculum, skilled teaching and sustained attention to scientific literacy.

Reading remains important: Even high-performing systems can experience declines in reading, making literacy a continuing priority for both countries.

Digital learning needs discipline: Both countries’ results highlight the growing importance of computational problem solving, but digital tools need to support—not replace—deep learning.

Conclusion

New Zealand performed above the OECD average in PISA 2025 and showed signs of stabilisation, particularly compared with the post-pandemic decline seen internationally. Estonia, however, remained a benchmark system, outperforming New Zealand in science and mathematics and matching it closely in reading. For New Zealand, the comparison reinforces the need to lift mathematics achievement, reduce achievement variation, and build a more consistently high-performing and equitable education system.

A small house effect

A house effect, in polling terms, is the measurement of whether polls form one company for a party differ from the average of all the other polls for that party. It isn’t bias, it is just saying this is how far from the average a polling company is.

The Overhang calculates house effects every few months, and has just done an update. It shows:

So for all seven parties, Curia has a deviation from the industry average of less than 1%, and less than 0.5% for all but the Greens.

They’re anti-immigration, not Nazis

A lot of media reporting on the election result in Saxony-Arnholt. It has two million people and is in former East Germany.

Their Parliament is called a Landtag and they just went to the polls. The results so far are:

  1. AFD 43.8% (+23%), 39 seats (+16)
  2. CDU 17.2% (-19.9%), 15 seats (-25)
  3. SPD 9.3% (+0.9%), 8 seats (-1)
  4. Alliance/Greens 8.9% (+3%), 8 seats (+2)
  5. The Left 8.6% (-2.4%), 8 seats (-4)
  6. BSW 5.3% (+5.3%), 5 seats (+5)
  7. FDP 2.6% (-3.8%), 0 seats (-7)

So a huge swing from CDU to AFD.

You need 42 seats to govern. The AFD are not quite there but a grand coalition is hard to see.as The Left and BSW are very hard left parties and if CDU tries to govern with them, it will not be pretty. So CDU either has to let AFD govern, or form a coalition of every other party in the Landtag, or another election (which would help AFD).

The AFD has unsavoury elements to it, to put it mildly. But I don’t think people should see the vote for them as a vote for returning to the Nazi past. The vote for them is basically that people didn’t like having 1 million Muslim immigrants come in, and they see AFD as the only party that will stop further immigration.

General Debate 10 September 2026

Promising PISA results

The Herald reports:

The post-Covid collapse in education has halted amid signs of a narrowing equity gap, as disadvantaged students improved at higher rates than their richer peers. 

That’s according to New Zealand’s 2025 Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment) results, released this evening, which is a benchmark for 15-year-olds in the OECD in science, maths and reading.

We have been decline for two decades in the PISA results, so this is good news. The participation rate was down, so one has to be careful about concluding too much compared to previous assessments. But this is especially good:

So the improvement comes from schools which have the most disadvantaged students. That will mean, if it continues, those kids are going to have better opportunities in life, despite their disadvantaged backgrounds. Education is the best way to provide equality of opportunity.

So from 2000 to 2009, broadly stable. From 2009 to 2022 the declines were 40 in maths, 20 in reading and 28 in science. I understand that 20 points is approximately equivalent to a year’s learning, so that would mean students were 1 to 2 years behind what they were 15 years ago.

But in 2025, maths stabilised, reading dropped slightly and science actually improved. A long way to go, but stopping the decline is a good first step.

UPDATE: I’m told OECD research has found a 8 point drop in PISA scores is associated with a decline in productivity of 1%. So if we can lift our scores back to where they used to be, this could led to a 4% increase in aggregate productivity.

Do as I say, not as I do

Radio NZ reports:

The foreign minister has made five new diplomatic appointments – including his own ministerial adviser and former chief of staff Jon Johansson as the Ambassador to Sweden. …

Johansson taught at Victoria University for 17 years, and served as Winston Peters’ chief of staff then-senior specialist ministerial adviser in the 2017-20 and 23-26 parliamentary terms.

Peters described him as a “political scientist specialising in political leadership” saying he had “worked the past quarter-century at the intersection of New Zealand politics, media, public service and foreign policy”, before acknowledging his roles as Peters’ staffer.

“In these roles, Jon provided advice to the foreign minister on a broad range of policy issues and participated in the minister’s engagements with counterpart foreign ministers all around the world.”

In 2016, Peters criticised the “brorocracy” of diplomatic appointments after speculation that former Speaker David Carter – who New Zealand First MPs had clashed with – would replace another former Speaker Lockwood Smith as High Commissioner to Britain.

Carter later rubbished the idea, but Peters told media at the time political appointees should be “the absolute exception” and he would recall appointees home if his party held the balance of power at the subsequent election.

This is quite hilarious. Peters has spent years railing against political appointments to diplomatic posts, and then he appoints his former chief of staff to be Ambassador to Sweden.

Personally I don’t have a problem with occasional political appointments. Bolger and Groser to Washington did an excellent job as did Lockwood in the UK.

I have no doubt Johansson will be a diligent and competent Ambassador. A former COS to a Foreign Minister will not be a novice. So the issue is Winston’s consistency, not Johansson’s suitability.

Poll highs and lows

I thought people might be interested in what have been the lows and highs in the last 12 months in the monthly Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll for each political party. The election is certainly not static.

  • Labour: 34.4% Mar 26, 25.9% Sep 26: range 8.5%
  • National: 31.5% Jan 26, 29.0% Sep 26: range 2.5%
  • Greens: 13.9% Sep 26, 7.7% Jan 26, range: 6.2%
  • ACT: 10.5% Sep 26, 6.5% May 26, range 4.0%
  • NZF: 13.6% Apr 26, 8.1% Dec 25, range 5.5%
  • TPM: 4.4% October 25, 1.5% Aug 26, range 2.9%
  • TOP: 6.1% Aug 26, 0.7% Jan 26, range 5.4%

The party with the least variation has actually been National, who have been consistently between 29% and 31.5%.

General Debate 09 September 2026

A weird speech by the Chief Ombudsman

Have been sent multiple copies of this speech by the Chief Ombudsman. It has raised many many eyebrows. He is an Independent Officer of Parliament, but shouldn’t claim to speak with the mana of the Parliament.

While the speech was not partisan, I’m not sure the Chief Ombudsman should be saying he stands for systemic change and inviting politicians to agree with him and other speakers.

Good advice from the Māori Queen

The Post reports:

Te Arikinui Kuini Nga wai hono i te po has called on Māori to change the trajectory for future generations, urging her people to move from the legacy of Raupatu to a future of Rauora.

In her second Koroneihana address, Te Arikinui told thousands who gathered at Tūrangawaewae Marae and beyond that the mauri of kotahitanga, carried and protected by her father, Kiingi Tuuheitia Potatau Te Wherowhero te tuawhitu, now rests with everyone.

Her use of the term Raupatu refers to the impact of colonisation and intergenerational trauma that has continued to trickle across te ao Māori. Rauora symbolises wellbeing, health and prosperity. …

She challenged Māori to stop asking only what had happened to them, and instead ask what they would do now.

“The question for us is no longer only what happened to us; it is also: What will we do now? When do we decide that what we inherited will not be what we hand on?

“When do we say, ‘The trajectory changes with us’?”

Te Arikinui said the circumstances Māori were born into should not determine the limits of their lives.

“E ruhi mā, e koro mā, tamariki mā, mokopuna mā: Koinei te rā. This is the day. This is the day I say: Raupatu was part of the world I was born into, but Raupatu is not all that I am. I am an uri of Raupatu, but I will be a toa of Rauora. Ka puta. Ka ora,” she said.

“I will not allow the circumstances into which I was born to determine the limits of my life. I will learn. I will work. I will lead. I will build. And I will leave something stronger for those who come after me. Koinei te rā.

For my 2c this is very good advice. It is important to understand that events in the past, such as loss of lands, have resulted in disadvantages that extend on today.

However being overly focused on the past and grievances can be unhealthy and send out a signal that you can’t break free of the past.

It is a reality that almost every country on earth has had a past which was not just imperfect, but sometimes devastating. Cambodia had Pol Pot. Jews had the Holocaust. Germans had their country razed to the ground. Japan had cities nuked. Brazil had atrocities against the indigenous population, Argentina had military dictatorships, Eastern Europe had Soviet Rule. In my observation those countries are very aware of their pasts, but they don’t obsess over them.

General Debate 08 September 2026

Debates and polls

The Taxpayers’ Union announced:

Taxpayers’ Union announces election debate series to be live-streamed by the NZ Herald 

The Taxpayers’ Union will host seven pre-election electorate debates across the country, live-streamed by the New Zealand Herald and hosted by former Labour MP Anna Lorck and commentator Damien Grant.

Each debate will feature a new electorate poll, giving voters a snapshot of how the race stands before candidates take the stage.

The national Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll will also be released live at the conclusion of the Mt Albert debate on 8 October and the Tāmaki debate on 3 November.

Debate schedule:

Wellington Bays: 
Tuesday 15 September
West Coast-Tasman: Tuesday 22 September
Waitaki: Tuesday27 September
Mt Albert: Thursday 8 October*
Tukituki: Wednesday 21 October
Auckland Central: Tuesday 27 October
Tāmaki: Tuesday 3 November*

*Includes release of Taxpayers’ Union–Curia national poll

DPF: All really interesting seats. Two seats where Greens hold, and Labour wants to win off them (and National too). Two seats held by National with strong NZ First candidates. The iconic West Coast-Tasman seat which is an open contest. One seat held by ACT that National is trying to win back and the four way battle in Mt Albert between Labour, National, Greens and Opportunity.

Impressive UE for Leavers School 2025

This is not a perfect measure – but some great examples of schools making progress for their students – while acknowledging that those near the top have limited scope to increase their numbers.

Maybe these schools have the secret sauce.

 RollNumber of Leavers Percentage of Leavers with University Entrance
Name202520252023 %2024 %2025%
Kristin School17251828493.494.8
Hutt International Boys’ School3301588.48692.4
Carmel College107013276.48591.5
Waikato Diocesan School For Girls69511178.887.490.5
Scots College113715379.983.889.3
St Catherines College (Kilbirnie)2074157.580.588.6
St Paul’s College (Ponsonby)403596672.984.1
Auckland Girls’ Grammar School115620267.173.883.9
Westlake Girls’ High School231040074.476.383
Lindisfarne College5617168.870.482.8
Sancta Maria College107413274.780.582.7
Dilworth School4827264.965.881.3
McAuley High School78614641.951.775.5
John McGlashan College5327155.666.274.1
Middleton Grange School139418665.254.273.1
St Thomas of Canterbury College70312157.763.671.9
Zayed College for Girls1872358.860.971.4
New Plymouth Girls’ High School131427448.948.266.7
Long Bay College189327755.361.265.4
Cashmere High School237843955.257.163.2
Wellington High School and Com Ed Centre167430451.754.460.3
Ormiston Senior College150243149.347.459.6
Sacred Heart Girls’ College (Ham)93216250.651.259.5
Northcote College148928050.456.258.4
Green Bay High School185234243.652.758.4
Waitaki Girls’ High School4068031.741.258.3
Taradale High School98626136.938.955.1
Kelston Girls’ College585972419.455
Birkenhead College521943144.253.3
Lynfield College199329738.745.651.7
Rutherford College153825029.33248.1
Aotea College132820629.242.945
Dunstan High School59011330.838.844.7
Kaipara College7571433233.644.4
Marcellin College55810933.93743.4
Avonside Girls’ High School106419532.838.243
Pacific Advance Secondary School1454312.533.342.9
Te Kura Māori o Porirua190816918.82042.9
New Plymouth Boys’ High School152228327.936.642.7
Timaru Girls’ High School46893274042.7
Napier Boys’ High School131123331.836.842.5
Palmerston North Boys’ High School18023173635.742.2
Massey High School203534726.731.741.8
Papamoa College179025035.233.841.3
Te Kuiti High School3195522.67.540.7
Waitakere College197431733.726.440.5
Cullinane College4646531.221.538.9
Kaiapoi High School102220325.926.238.9
Taieri College12251692328.237.8
Tauranga Boys’ College221244230.133.637.3
Manurewa High School226846719.228.337
Kuranui College8011552827.736.9
Chanel College3144322.234.135.3
Tokoroa High School50011010.82734.8
Waitaki Boys’ High School4346617.616.934.6
Westland High School38851172031.7
Southern Cross Campus170018710.413.326.2
Paeroa College3567011.513.723
Mairehau High School433927.314.420.5

For those who want the full data set:

The seventeen sheets cover:

1. Base data by School Number

2. Base data by EQI

3. Listed by Size

4. Listed by L2 NCEA for leavers 2022 – 2025

5. Listed by L3 NCEA for leavers 2020 – 2025

6. Listed by UE for leavers 2018 – 2025

7. Listed by L3 NCEA to UE for leavers gap – 2028 – 2025

8. Listed by student retention until 17yo 2018 – 2025

9. Listed by Progression to L7+ degree study 2019 – 2024

10. Listed by UE results in EQI 10ths – 2021 – 2025

11. Listed by UE results with EQI coded – 2021 – 2025 (highlighted those doing well from higher EQI situations)

12. STATE only: Listed by UE results with EQI coded – 2021 – 2025 

13. National Measures – Attendance & UE Means by EQI 10ths (2022 – 2025)

14. Broad Sector Measures – Overall, Ethnicity, Gender, School Governance, School Type, Geographical Area.

15. Boys’ School Groups (Super 8, South Island) – UE and Retention 2024 – 2025.

16. UE Data for 59 Impressive Improvers – 2023 – 2025.

17. Data Summary and Goal Setting Sheet for Schools to Use. 

If you order the data for professional use I will send it immediately (with an invoice that can be paid in your payments cycle). The cost is $400+ GST.

For private use – a donation is a good thing – in recognition of the work and value.

[email protected]

Jessica Rowe selected for Kaipara ki Mahurangi

In what would have been a hotly contested selection, National has selected Jessica Rowe for the safe seat of Kaipara ki Mahurangi, vacated by Chris Penk.

She grew up locally in Riverhead, became a journalist and then did a Masters in Global Diplomacy, joining MFAT. She’s been involved in numerous global groups, and is the NZ co-chair of the Australia-NZ Leadership Forum Emerging Leaders Programme.

She was seconded to work in the Beehive to the Foreign Affairs Minister in 2022 and the Climate Change Minister in 2024. A few months ago she became a ministerial advisor to Louise Upston. She also serves as a board member to the Student Volunteer Army.

Her family also run a century-old haberdashery business based in Auckland, and Jessica has business interests in New Zealand wool and property.

An exciting addition to National’s team.

General Debate 07 September 2026

LOL Greens want to run the supermarkets

The Herald reports:

The Green Party is promising to nationalise 120 Woolworths and Foodstuffs supermarkets to create a new Government-owned supermarket, KiwiMart, if elected.

The party says the Parliamentary Library costed the policy at $2.8 billion, comprising the cost of nationalising 120 stores and two distribution centres at $1.3b, with a further $1.5b to capitalise KiwiMart as a commercially viable competitor. KiwiMart would have a mandate to prioritise affordability.

You have to laugh or cry at this policy – or both.

Can you think of a more sure fire way to lose $2.8 billion – have the Greens appoint some mates to run 120 supermarkets.

And imagine all the other restrictions the Greens will impose on them. They’ll instruct therm not to stick any foods they deem unhealthy. They’ll also instruct them to ban any non organic food, any food with a high carbon footprint etc.