Greg Fortuin writes in the Herald:
This Saturday, Tariana Turia’s amazing walk from occupation to Parliament will culminate in the Maori Party harvesting all seven seats as Maori grasp their opportunity to forcefully shape the nation’s future.
But the polls are not going their way, with Maori TV/TNS poll showing Mahuta ahead by 13% in Hauraki-Waikato and Horomia ahead by 5% in Ikaroa-Rawhiti.
In recent weeks there has been a Marae Digipoll and a Maori TV TNS poll in each of the Labour held Maori seats. Here is what they say:
- Hauraki-Waikato: Mahuta ahead by 13% by TNS and ahead by 1% by Digipoll
- Ikaroa Rawhiti – Horomia ahead by 5% by TNS and 5% by DIgipoll
- Te Tai Tonga: – Okeroa ahead by 10% by TNS but trailing by 6% by Digipoll
It will be interesting to see which polls turn out to be more accurate with the Maori seats – especially in Te Tai Tonga.
A clean sweep by the Maori Party isn’t totally off the cards, but the odds look to favour Labour keeping some or all of the three seats. Maybe their campaign suggesting the Maori Party would go with National is working?
Ironically the more Maori seats Labour wins, the better it is for National, as it reduces potential overhang and means National can form a Government with maybe just 61 MPs instead of 62 or 63 MPs.