What is an A, B, C or D outcome for each party?

On Patreon I look at the range of outcomes are for each party and what would represent an excellent (A) outcome, a good (B) outcome, an acceptable outcome (C) and a bad (D) outcome.

The section on Labour is:


 A – Over 50% of the vote and a majority Government in its own right. The dream scenario, no party has done since 1951. Preferably the Greens make it also, but they don’t need them to govern.

B – Mid to high 40s and a Labour/Green Government. The first true left Government since 2002. A very good outcome and they get to implement as much of their agenda as they feel they can carry the public with.

C – Low to mid 40s and a Labour/Green/NZ First Government again. A lot better than being in opposition, but frustrating that once again Peters would decide what policies live or die.

D -Low 40s to mid 40s and Greens and NZF don’t make it and Labour just misses out to National/ACT. Would be a terrible outcome after one term and polling so well post Covid-19.

The full analysis is on Patreon.

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