World War III is now very plausible in the next few years

At Patreon (paywalled), I write on why I think World War III is now very plausible:

The odds of this occurring in the next five to ten years has gone from implausible to very possible …

There will be some sort of peace deal in Ukraine this year. The Ukraine conflict was always going to end in a peace deal. Almost all wars end in deals, except WWII which was the rare modern exception of “total victory” being demanded.

What matters are the details of a peace deal.