April 10, 2025 11:00pm by Alwyn Poole

A bet with Steven Joyce on the world economy in 3 years time.

As an economist/educator I have always sat in the framework of Julian Simon and Indur Golkany – and other future optimists. Both hold that the economic pathway of the world, with fulcutuations, is constantly improving since the industrial revolution and that humans are better off now that we ever have been.

An example is that Asia has reduced the number of people in “absolute poverty” by 1.5 billion in two generations.

Julian Simon famously wagered, in 1980, with the doom-sayers of the late 20th century – specifically Paul Ehrlich – that key resources would decline in price by 1990. He was right.

For all sorts of reasons – including media and political influence – we are panicking about what Trump is doing with tarriffs. I would argue that unbalnced tariffs are a disaster – which is what we have had for 30 years (at least), even tarriffs reduces resource distortion and is a good interim stage, and the free trade based on relative resource advantage is best for all.

Real per capita GDP in 2023 (PPP – which takes into account living costs) has:

USA at US$82,769 – 9th in the world. 2024 2024 real per capital growth of 2.4%

Australia at US$70,340 – 16th in the world. 2024 real rep capita growth of 0.1%

New Zealand at $53,481 – 33rd in the world. 2024 real rep capita growth of 0.1%

World Economic growth as GDP per capita in 2024 was 3.2%.

When shocks come – people, business’, economies adjust.

Hence – based on Simon, Golkany and other future optimists I have taken this bet with Steven Joyce via linkedin.

Alwyn Poole • You

Education 710+ Ltd and Innovative Education Consultants Ltd

The great economist Julian Simon made a famous bet in 1980 with Paul Erlich and co re the price of resources moving forward.

Steven – you are jumping on a bandwagon and ignoring the true state of world trade.

I would be happy to take a wager that in three year’s time that the USA (Trump’s responsibility) and all countries who re-allign their practices towards the USA – will be measureably better off re per capita GDP.