Liberals looking comfortable in Canada
The Canadian election is on Monday (Tuesday NZ time) and the Liberal Party has gone from being 20% behind a few months ago and facing a loss of well over 100 seats to leading in most polls and projected to win re-election.
They may not get a majority, which needs 172 seats. Current projections have them getting 186 seats. 338 Canada projects they have an 89% chance of winning the most seats and a 68% chance of getting a majority.
The chances of a Conservative majority is now under 1% and in December the chances were over 99%! Trump has destroyed the chances of the Canadian Conservative Party with his attacks on Canada.
The seat projections are:
- Liberals 186 (+26 from 2021)
- Conservatives 124 (+5)
- Bloc Quebécois 24 (-8)
- NDP 8 (-13)
- Greens 1 (-1)
The last few polls have shown the race getting tighter, so the Conservatives may do better than the projections, but the betting markets have the Liberals at between 82% and 88% favourites to win, so it would be a real upset.