Radio NZ reports:

In 2021 the government set targets of reducing the number of children experiencing material hardship from 13.3 down to 9 percent by 2023/24. The government’s new target for 2026/27 is 11 percent.

Yes Labour,. set a target, but were they on track to meet it?

Let’s look at the various targets announced over time for proportion of children in material hardship:

• May 19: 10.3% by 20/21 and 6.0% by 27/28
• Jun 21: 9.0% by 23/24
• Jun 24: 11.0% by 26/27

But how did they actually do?

First thing to note is by far the largest drop occurred from 2012/13 to 2015/16 – a massive 6% in three years.

The rate was 13.3% when Labour in 2019 set a three year target of 10.3%. They got 11.0%, so got around 3/4 of the way to their goal.

In 2021 the rate was 11.5% and they set a goal for 2024 of 9% or a 2.5% reduction. They delivered a 1% increase by 2023 so you see why the target is now unachievable. This is what happens when inflation gets out of control.

Labour’s 10 years target was from 13.3% to 6% so a 0.73% reduction a year. After five years they delivered a 0.16% a year reduction or 0.8% after five years instead of the targeted 3.7%.

So National inherited a material hardship rate of 12.5% for 22/23 and likely even higher for 23/24, so a target of 11.0% by 26/27 is still a significant challenge which will require a reduction of 0.5% a year, which is six times more than what Labour achieved.

As I blogged previously the problem is a botched centralisation project. Money should be spent on health services, not extra bureaucracy.

A review by StatsNZ has found:

This review found that the employee’s responsibilities in relation to potential conflicts of interest
were made clear to him by the organisation, his managers, and leadership with a range of messages,
and through a number of channels well in advance of the event at Rātana Pā.

So having got up and insulted various Government Ministers, what consequences have there been?

On 24 January 2024, a delegation of four Stats NZ employees attended the Rātana celebrations at
Rātana Pā in an official capacity. The Rātana celebrations are widely attended by iwi, hapu and
Māori, the Crown, government officials and other stakeholders.

So taxpayers paid for him to attend, so he could insult the Government he is meant to work for.

Here’s some of what this senior public servant said, while being paid by taxpayers:

• The government has three coalition partners, two of which are present and the third electing to stay in his constituency to lick his own arse
• You only prioritise the few who voted you into Parliament
• (To Shane Jones) you have now turned your back on the Māoridom

So again is he still in his job?

Tim Hurdle writes:

Building new rail networks is super expensive as the Auckland light rail debacle showed. The Australian ABC TV show Utopia has mined a rich vein of comedy explaining the realities of their boondoggles, such as “the Very Fast Train” between Melbourne and Sydney. Perhaps NZ On Air could fund a similar show so we could explore some of the projects that Kiwis mythologise.

That’s a great idea. Someone should apply to do that.

People also like to dream about inter-regional travel. Before rail, getting to Auckland took several days of rough sailing, because there was no State Highway 1. The end to viable regional rail services was signalled in 1968 with the arrival of the new Boeing 737. This fast and reliable aircraft made Wellington to Auckland a two-hour return journey.

Business travellers knew time was money. Patronage on any transportation system is determined by speed, comfort and convenience.

I did travel between Auckland and Wellington by train in my 20s a few times. But that was when I was studying, not working, and it was actually cheaper than flying.

Today I can’t justify 12 hours on a train when I can fly in one hour. I prefer train to flying but it isn;’t there on speed, convenience or cost.

But traditional traffic patterns are fading with flexible and digital working. Working continues through weekends. Physical deliveries and tradies use road networks enhanced by new technologies to improve their productivity.

Rail attracts the attention of dreamers and romantics. The practicality and expense of their ideas will leave them as arguments for blog posts, Twitter experts and smoko rooms. Dreams are free, concrete and steel are not.

I saw a mention somewhere that merely using Google Maps has made road networks significantly more effective. I often let it take me off the main route, as it says it will be faster.,

Tyler Cowan writes on the findings, which are:

• 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years
• A control group of 2,000 participants receiving $50/ month
• The transfer caused total individual income to fall by about $1,500/year relative to the control group, excluding the transfers.
• The program resulted in a 2.0 percentage point decrease in labor market participation for participants and a 1.3-1.4 hour per week reduction in labor hours, with participants’ partners reducing their hours worked by a comparable amount.
• The transfer generated the largest increases in time spent on leisure, as well as smaller increases in time spent in other activities such as transportation and finances.
• We find no impact on quality of employment, and our confidence intervals can rule out even small improvements.
• No significant effects on investments in human capital

Stuff reports:

The Green Party leadership has told former MP Darleen Tana their refusal to quit Parliament is “distorting“ the party’s representation in the House.

Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said on Sunday they had written to Tana about the issue and called a Special General Meeting of the party in September to discuss their response.

“Today, Marama Davidson and I wrote to Darleen Tana to inform them that it is our view that by resigning from the Green Party but refusing to resign from Parliament, they have acted in a way that has distorted, and is likely to continue to distort, the proportionality of political party representation in Parliament as determined at the last general election,” Swarbrick said.

The co-leader said they advised Tana they have 21 working days to respond to matters raised in the letter.

It looks almost certain they will use the waka jumping law to expel her from Parliament.

The letter they have sent is designed to comply with the law that states:

The statement must be in writing and signed by the parliamentary leader concerned, and must state that the parliamentary leader reasonably believes that the member of Parliament concerned has acted in a way that has distorted, and is likely to continue to distort, the proportionality of political party representation in Parliament as determined at the last general election

Further:

advising the member that he or she has 21 working days from the date of receiving the notice to respond to the matters raised in the notice by notice in writing addressed to the parliamentary leader

So 21 working days from Monday will be around 27 August. Then from that date the caucus can vote by two thirds majority to notify the Speaker that Tana be expelled.

Radio NZ reports:

On a remote island in central Tonga, Glen Duncan needs the internet.

His resort in the Pacific Island nation’s Ha’apai islands couldn’t survive without a way to communicate with guests and monitor natural disaster warnings online.

And after one of Tonga’s undersea cables was broken late last month – possibly by an earthquake – it is Elon Musk’s Starlink internet keeping him connected.

It’s not the first time he’s relied on the service, after a volcanic eruption and tsunami cut off Tonga’s internet in 2022.

“Without Starlink, our business would have already failed,” Duncan said.

“We would have gone through many safety issues. It would be impossible for us to operate, absolutely impossible.”

So what is the problem?

But last week, the Tongan government moved to shut it down.

Starlink, which has been trying to gain a licence to operate permanently in Tonga, emailed customers to say the nation’s communications ministry had told it to disable services.

Why would a Government deprive its citizens of a vital service?

Some internet users criticise what they see as the government’s reluctance to allow Starlink in Tonga, arguing it is trying to protect its own state-owned telecommunications companies. …

And some regulators in Pacific Island countries warn Starlink users their equipment will be confiscated at the border if they attempt to bring it in.

The Governments own the local telco, and they prioritise protecting their revenue stream over allowing their residents to decide for themselves who provides the best service for the best price.

This is another good reason why Governments should not own businesses, except possibly when they are natural monopolies (and even then better to regulate them than own them).

Go read the story of Dr Paul Crowhurst. The short version is:

• Dr Crowhurst is a principal of an ethnically diverse school with a PhD in Education Leadership
• Took up Adjunct Senior Lecturer in Education at Massey on a fixed term in 2021
• Paul submitted an op-ed to Stuff on the new Unteach Racism initiative concerned about two aspects of the programme’s claims it makes concerning “unconscious bias”, and secondly, the traditional “Pakeha social structures” which, according to the new theory of racism, are necessary to maintain “white supremacy”.
• Other Massey academics secretly complained about the op ed, saying it was horrific, deeply racist and made then unsafe. One even advocated reporting him to the Teaching Council for his daring to have an opinion on the issue. None ever approached him over their views.
• Applied for a a permanent job as a Senior Lecturer in Education and was not even shortlisted
• Was told he would not be needed in 2022

Now we all know this was not coincidence. It was the usual mob trying to stamp out views they disagree with.

Meet The Roast.

Christine McCarthy makes the case for having phones in cells:

Telephones in prison cells are becoming the norm in countries such as England and Wales, Scotland, Ireland, France, and Belgium. The European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisoners  in the UK both welcomed this. In New Zealand, only the Serco-run Auckland South Corrections Facility has in-cell telephones, which the Ombudsman has supported.

Some people might find the idea of in-cell telephones too liberal a move. However, such a change would not affect current processes requiring telephone numbers to be approved or prisoners’ phone calls to be recorded and monitored.

Instead, this change would enable prisoners to be part of the everyday lives of their whānau – for example, to help their children with homework questions and support their partners with day-to-day family decisions.

My first instinct was this would be too permissive, but if the policies of approved phone numbers and monitoring remained, the arguments against are diminished. The fact it already occurs in one prison (the privately run one) should serve as a good basis to roll it out to other prisons.

Forward reports:

For a company whose founder was a literal Nazi, you would think Adidas might tread lightly launching a shoe referencing the 1972 Munich Olympics, when 11 members of the Israeli delegation were killed after being taken hostage by a Palestinian terrorist group.

Instead, the company made Bella Hadid — a supermodel of Palestinian descent who once called Israel “a Jewish supremacist state” — the face of the new SL72 sneaker’s marketing campaign.

Now, responding to backlash on social media, the company is changing course, the second time this year it has required damage control for missteps related to antisemitism.

Stupid enough to release a shoe to reference the 72 Olympics where Israeli athletes were murdered. But to have the front person be someone associated with those who did the murdering, rather than the murdered, is offensive.

A guest post by the Taxpayers’ Union:

There was a breathlessness on RadioNZ where it displayed, yet again, its ignorance of economics. 

his time following news the excise tax on heated tobacco products – inherently less harmful than traditional smoked durries – was cut by 50 percent to reflect the fact.   If this isn’t news to you, recall the NZ First–National Coalition Agreement where “…taxing smoked products only” was included.  Or this from the May 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update: “Through Coalition agreements, the Government has also committed to taxing smoked tobacco only and reforming the regulation of vaping, smokeless tobacco and oral nicotine products…”

The pleasant surprise is that it has happened.  

The Coalition government and Casey Costello are to be applauded for (a) carrying through on a policy commitment; (b) finally understanding what Arthur C. Pigou meant by taxes and subsidies and (c) for standing up to the health lobby mafioso the poor bloody taxpayer is funding via that rort called the Health Research Council.

For the benefit of Professors Hoek, Bullen and RadioNZ, excise taxes are Pigouvian taxes that create a “negative externality” or cost paid by an individual to dissuade usage.  Excise taxes are also the fiscal equivalent of blunt force trauma.  As child obesity rates in Mexico rise, its much-trumpeted sugar tax lauded by the usual suspects here, isn’t the silver bullet they claim it to be. 

Our classic local example, along with alcohol and fuel, is the tobacco excise tax that’s also subject to GST.  A tax on a tax.  From 2011 until 2020, governments hiked the price of tobacco 115 percent off the back of ‘ten excise taxes increases’ above inflation.  As a blast from the past, check this out.    

So what did increasing tobacco prices 115 percent, plain packaging and finger wagging from largely Otago University based health zealots achieve?  Not a lot.  The number of daily smokers fell by 88,000 between 2011 and 2020 at a glacial annual average of just 0.45 percent.

What we did see increase was poverty, ramraids, thefts, burglaries, assaults on shopkeepers and a blackmarket Otago academics denies exists.  No comment from them, strangely, on a major tobacco bust by Customs in May.  There are three major tobacco suppliers operating in New Zealand – illicit is already larger than one of them, and on track to take the second spot (based on empty pack litter surveys).

Following the axing off the ten scheduled tobacco excise tax hikes in 2019 (credit to NZ First and their consistency)  what did the policy do to smoking prevalence after 2020?  Surely, smoking must have soared given Professor Hoek and the Otago ‘experts’ pined for its return in 2021? 

Daily smoking collapsed.  New Zealand’s light hand regulatory approach to vaping, saw our smoking rates plummet while Australia (which, on the back of lobbying by Big Pharma protecting their (nicotine) patch) effective banned the ‘safer cigarette’) kept on the durries.  Fancy that. In the three years since 2020, 201,000 Kiwis quit daily smoking that saw prevalence fall from 11.9 percent to 6.8 percent last year.  That’s more than twice the quitters in less than a third of the time over policies advocated by Otago, Professor Bullen, Ministry of Health/HealthNZ and of course, RadioNZ. 

HealthNZ is being exposed as a Shadow Opposition who wanted to corrupt advice to dissuade a democratically elected government’s policy agenda:  It’s CEO, Maggie Apa, saying: “We need to make legislation look like the cheapest option”.  Is it no wonder there’s been leaks against the government and Chris Luxon must reform Labour’s Public Service Act to avoid the same fate of Rishi Sunak. A Prime Minister who ‘never fought “the blob” and “the blob” won.’

So, what the Coalition government is doing with a 50 percent tobacco excise cut on smokefree products is a Pigouvian subsidy.  This is intended to encourage behaviour that’ll have positive effects on others, like switching from dangerous cigarettes to less harmful smokeless products.  With moves to legalise oral nicotine pouches Casey Costello seems willing to play for all the marbles and she’ll make history for the right reasons if she does.  The only losers will be redundant academics who are now playing dirty pool for their very survival.  I mean what happens to ‘experts’ on smoking policy in a smokefree New Zealand.  Maybe they’ll move to Australia and improve the collective IQ but surely, even Grant Robertson will struggle to find them a paying role.

Or they can wake up and smell the roses because their anti-tobacco bias is not being pro health.  Being pro health, no longer means, being anti-tobacco.  

As for the rest of us we all win.  According to the NZ Health Survey and my local dairy for a pack of Rothmans Red 20s, the average daily smoker will spend $5,770 on their addiction over a year.  Getting smokers onto cheaper alternatives is not just great for health, it could unpick the poverty these so-called ‘experts’ created in their obsessive big tobacco fatwa.

For the avoidance of doubt, the Taxpayers’ Union takes money from smokers (they pay quite a lot of tax), and nicotine suppliers (ditto). But it is a tiny percentage of total income (total industry – covering nicotine, sugar, booze, and other regulated and taxed industries) amounts to less than 3 percent.  If you really think that the Taxpayers’ Union wouldn’t support a tax cut but for that small amount of funding, I have a bridge to sell you. RadioNZ will be first in line.

1. The experience so far in terms of the efforts of the new Charter School Agency are streets ahead of the 2013 beginning.
   
2. I have established a new Company (Education 710+ Ltd) that is applying for Charitable status. The Charter School model is not designed for profit but the company model is a good oversight structure. I have been able to attract a brilliant group of directors who cover experience and qualifications in education, governance of high value business, law, media, international students, students with needs – and all are very passionate about the project.
   
3. We are putting in three very high quality applications in:
   
   – Epsom (Epsom 710): As an academic Year 7 – 10 provision for 240 students (with options for growth). The site that we are negotiating on is exciting in itself and getting it back into full use will benefit the area greatly. 15 students per class and other innovations that will make it work for all students/families who would thrive with a different form of provision.
   
   – Warkworth (Warkworth 710): As an academic Year 7 – 10 provision for 240 students (with options for growth). Already highly supported by the community in an area – north of the Puhoi tunnel – that is growing fast and in need of exciting choice for families. 15 students per class and other innovations that will make it work for all students/families who would thrive with a different form of provision.
   
   – Central City Auckland (City 1113): A University Entrance – transition to tertiary – focused school for 180 students in 2025 and 360 in 2026.
   
   If approved all three provisions will be free. Under the Charter School model all students must be accepted and if/when full a formal ballot done. We would employ high quality teachers and pay them more than the collective contract (with other benefits such as life and health benefits – as well as the sheer joy of working it an environment where students come to genuinely learn and the model makes teaching deeply satisfying). No teacher only days and no strikes.
   
   The team involved in Education 710+ Ltd will also be very well positioned to be a “sponsor” of State schools looking to transition to become Charters and I am happy to take enquiries on what that may mean.
   
   If approved, all three schools would be set to start in Term 1 2025. Given the time frame we are currently taking expressions of interest from families for their children, potential teaching and leadership staff, people who may like to assist (in any form – including philanthropy and to see us fast out of the blocks). All contacts to [email protected]
   
4. I also have the privilege of working with some other excellent applicants. There are children and families in a range of areas that, if the schools are approved, can expect an exciting and very high quaity new option.
   
   Alwyn Poole
   [email protected]
   Innovative Education Consultants Ltd
   Education 710+ Ltd
   alwynpoole.substack.com
   www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Newsroom reports:

When Wayne Brown started his term as Auckland mayor, he was lambasted for his poor communication, lack of engagement with the media and inability to get consensus around the council table.

While in the capital, Tory Whanau’s ascension to the mayoralty was heralded as a huge step forward; she was the first wāhine Māori mayor and talked of a progressive future.

It’s nearly two years into their three-year terms and the narrative has somewhat changed. Brown has secured the lowest rates increase of any metropolitan council across the country, while Whanau’s left-leaning colleagues have accused her of selling out her progressive stance.

The perception of both Mayors has changed over time.

This is from the monthly Curia-TU poll. As can see Brown started off poorly, but over the last year has received to positive territory. Whanau started off well, but had a huge dip in 2023, and remained negatives in early 2024. There will be another updated in September of these numbers.

1 News reports:

Last month the Government announced a near $4 billion boost to combat potholes on state highways and local roads over the next three years.

Today, the new pothole repair targets were announced as agreed between the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and roading contractors. 

The targets are for 95% of potholes on high volume, national, and arterial state highways and 85% of potholes on regional, primary collector, and secondary collector state highways be repaired within 24 hours of identification.

Nice to have a Government that wants to actually fix the roads, not just slow them down.

The Herald reports:

Deputy Prime Minister and NZ First Leader Winston Peters had a litigious start to the year, attracting legal threats from the band Chumbawumba and former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr.

But months later, neither Peters himself, nor his party, have received any indication that Chumbawumba or Carr plan to take legal action against him, suggesting their earlier antics this year were just empty tubthumping.

Good to see the Herald follow up on this. There were scores of stories on the tub thumping threats with Chris Hipkins hysterically suggesting Peters should be sacked as Foreign Minister. Maybe media should report less on someone saying they will sue, and more on if they actually sue.

Chloe Swarbrick writes:

Not only are our climate and environment the obvious foundation for any kind of economy, but the scientific fundamentals for life on earth as we know it are hard science, like gravity.

Economics, on the other hand, is social science. It’s laden with a number of theories that have been shown false in practice many times over. Yet, somehow, it’s economic theory, not the real-world limits of our climate and environment, that is treated as gospel beyond reproach in politics. 

Trying to claim environmentalism is a hard science asking to gravity is worth points for effort, but is ludicrous.

Chloe was only born in June 1994, so maybe she has never heard of the 1980 Simon–Ehrlich wager between an economist and environmentalist. The environmentalist said there were hard limits on certain resources so their price would increase over time. They were copper, tin, chromium, nickel and tungsten. Ten years later all five commodities had decreased, not increased in cost.

Peak oil opponents said production would peak at 12.5 billion barrels a year. It is now 29.5 billion. barrels a year. They said it would peak in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s etc etc.

Malthusianism said population growth would exceed the capacity of the planet to feed itself. Totally wrong.

Both economics and environmentalism have uncertainty. We should not see it as a choice between them, but how to have them work together such as with the Emissions Trading Scheme.

The Herald reports:

A Timaru teenager who admitted “depraved” and repeated sexual assaults on a young girl – the most “unusual” the sentencing judge has encountered in more than 20 years on the bench – has avoided prison.

Blake Ivan Miller, 19, pleaded guilty to “extremely serious” charges and was facing seven years behind bars.

But 75% of the sentence was cut due to his personal circumstances meaning he will serve just 10 months’ home detention.

Appalling. These crimes have a maximum sentence of 20 years and he got home detention for less than a year.

“I just want justice for our daughter and having him do 10 months’ home detention is not justice – just a nice long holiday for him.”

And a lifetime sentence for the victim.

Now the “good” news is that in future a sentencing discount of more than 40% won’t be available.

But the bad news is that the proposed new three strikes law wouldn’t have his offending even count as a strike, because he got a sentence of under two years.