Congrats to Trevor Mallard who won the 60 km bike race against Whale Oil by several kms at least. He’s just crossed the line. Trevor has done a very good job of downplaying expectations, and exceeding them on the day.

I did note earlier this month:

I’d have to say that Trevor would be considered the favourite and Cameron the underdog.

Trevor is basically a professional full-time cyclist, an amateur part-time blogger and an occasional MP. He did the 160 km Taupo cycle race in under 5 hours in 2009. Off memory he was in the top 5% of cyclists for his age group.

Cameron got on a bicycle around three months ago for the first time in 10+ years. Now Cameron has been training pretty hard, doing 20 km rides most days. But Trevor used to be able to do 20 kms in around half an hour. Whale does have a slight advantage with the course being local to him.

Now of course the big factor is Trevor’s bike crash and broken bones. If Trevor had not had his injury, it wouldn’t even be a contest. What we don’t know is to what extent Trevor is still injured. The crash was just over four and a half months ago which normally would be enough time to rebuild some of the leg muscles etc. And I suspect his overall level of fitness is still pretty good.

I was tempted to joke about what an achievement it is to beat a sickness beneficiary who hadn’t been on a bike for 10 years, until three months ago, but that would be unfair to Trevor who did have a pretty nasty injury to overcome. Full credit to him.

In one sense I think the race has been a win-win. It gave Trevor the motivation to get back on the bike seriously, and it gave Whale the motivation to get seriously into shape and be better both physically and mentally.

Anyway congrats to Trevor and Cameron, and I look forward to donating $1,000 to the CCS far more than I suspect Cactus will enjoy donating $1,000 to the Labour Party!

Not picking on Phil, but this photo from the SST is just too good to resist.

Captions should be funny, not nasty, please.

Don’t expect much blogging today. Had a belated house (apartment) warming last night. Was lots of fun, and the last few guests left at 5.30 am. Started at 7 pm so a decent effort. Today is for sleeping and clean up primarily!

The Herald do the second part of their profile of Phil Goff, this time focusing more on his political life:

Although he had the backing of Moore and Michael Bassett, Goff’s former electorate chair John Lindley, now an Act supporter, recalled Helen Clark and then Labour president Jim Anderton were both on the panel and supported a different candidate in the field which included Ken Hastings, Norman Kingsbury, George Hawkins and Wayne Mapp, now a National MP.

Interesting that Clark was against Goff, even back then.

Goff, then 28, hadn’t expected to get selected. This was partly because he was fresh out of Labour Youth, during which time he had made several speeches considered “radical” by the hierarchy including on legalisation of marijuana and calls for a capital gains tax. At one of the Party’s conferences he had also called on half of caucus to resign because they’d been there too long.

Lindley recalls the incident.

“Goff said ‘There’s too many old people in the party’. Bob Tizard stood up and said ‘Name one’ and Goff said ‘You, Bob’.”

Here’s an irony. Bob Tizard was 56 or 57 when the young Phil Goff told him he was too old and should leave.Phil Goff today is 58 years old. Is there someone as brave today as Goff was himself 30 years ago?

Things were more difficult in Goff’s employment portfolio. Unemployment soared as Think Big projects were dismantled, wage freezes lifted and state assets sold off. The newest chair of Labour Youth was one Charles Chauvel, now an MP, who stood at conference and told Goff to take some action or resign.

Now that’s ironic.

Goff emerged from opening the Hunter Building at Victoria University in March 1989 to find students lying on the ground all around his car. He walked back to Parliament, trailed the whole way by students chanting “Phil Goff F*** Off” – led by the then Victoria University Students’ Association president Andrew Little.

And that is downright funny.

But to be fair to Andrew, I once helped lead a march in Dunedin where we may have had a similar chant. In fact I recall some parental displeasure at being captured on TV saying the chant through a megaphone 🙂

Those days have repeatedly come back to haunt Goff – state asset sales, high unemployment, no exemptions to GST, student loans – the National Party has reams of quotes by Goff about each, all of which are polar opposites to Labour’s stance now.

Questioning about the apparent contradiction is the one point during two lengthy interviews spanning four hours when Goff becomes terse, saying he does not want to get “bogged down in the 80s”.

“I got things wrong, but life is a learning process.”

Goff uses the same reasoning he used when he first entered Parliament to explain why his views were no longer those he held in Youth Labour – that by and large his approach, rather than his belief in social justice had changed.

He is not ashamed of those years, but now believes the two things they got wrong were the state asset sales and the flat tax proposal, which Lange unilaterally pulled the pin on, prompting his fall from the leadership.

Others from that era find it harder to reconcile the two Goffs.

Michael Bassett said Goff was one of the staunchest in arguing against exemptions on GST and a “devoted Rogernome”.

“The irony was that since 1990 when the party got taken over by a bunch of people who believed otherwise, Phil had to do a double flip. That, in my view, has been the source of his biggest problem.

All politicians to some degree modify their beliefs over time, and will sometimes go for pragmatism over belief. But for most politicians I still have a pretty good idea of what they really think. You know deep down Maurice Williamson would love to sell every state asset with a pulse, just as you know deep down Sue Moroney would be happy if we did nationalise the means of production etc.

But Phil Goff is one of the very few MPs where I have to say I really have no idea of what he truly believes in. It is not so much that his views have changed, or not even that they have changed so radically, but that they have swung deeply to the left, then deeply to the right, and then to the centre and now again deeply to the left.

Roskill was a Bible belt electorate and Goff’s support for homosexual law reforms in 1989 had not gone down well. Another factor was his decision to move out to Clevedon – he put in an offer on the property just before the election and was sprung by his opponent, National candidate Gilbert Myles, who was a friend of the real estate agent.

“[National] went round changing his hoardings by crossing out the G in Goff and adding ‘to Clevedon’ so it read ‘Phil off to Clevedon’,” Lindley recalls.

Heh I like it.

It was at this time of uncertainty for Goff that the Act Party went to him, asking him to leave Labour and become their new leader, taking over from Douglas.

Douglas said Goff was “highly intelligent, an extremely hard worker”. He said Goff discussed the proposal with them, but rejected it.

This reflects again my uncertainty about what Goff believes in. To even entertain taking the leadership of ACT in the mid 1990s , and reconcile that with the Phil Goff we have today is almost impossible.

Went last night with an old friend from varsity to a show from Deb Filler, at the Fringe Bar on Cuba Street.

We got there a bit early and nabbed one of the nice big leather couches to have a drink or two on. We then realised one could also view the show from them, so stayed happily ensconced for the evening.

The show lasted for around two hours, and it was a great fun evening.

Filler is born in New Zealand, but has spent much of her life and career in New York, and more recently in Canada. She does a mixture of stand up comedy, story telling and also is a very fine singer and guitar player.

Filler is Jewish, and her parents and grandparents fled the Nazis (as my family did) in 1938. She does Jewish humour as only Jews can do – wonderfully self-deprecating. The laughter was non stop at times.

She also had some great stories to tell – the ones about Leonard Cohen and Leonard Bernstein were especially memorable.

My favourite part of the show was when she went played many of the theme songs of the 1950s and 1960s TV shows. Most of the audience recognised them within a few beats, and many joined in singing the lyrics. It was a great night for audience participation.

She is playing again on Saturday and Sunday night at the Fringe Bar. A very pleasant and enjoyable evening out, if you can make it. It is easy to see how she became such an international success.

David Fisher in HoS:

In a year of mismatched and painful political races, tomorrow’s is likely to be the silliest.

The blogger known as Whaleoil will face off against the “bovver boy” of the Labour Party in a 60-kilometre bicycle race in Auckland’s eastern suburbs.

In a sport often called “chess on wheels”, the bike race between Cameron ‘Whaleoil’ Slater and Trevor ‘Duck’ Mallard will hear little mention of the word “mate'”.

There is mutual loathing.

That’s a little tough. More opponents than enemies.

The contest came after Slater goaded Mallard by calling him “cripple” over his badly broken leg.

The elder statesman of the Labour Party lashed back, calling the comfortably-padded Slater “blubber boy'”.

“I bet he is too chicken,” Mallard said.

Well, he did accept.

It is worth remembering that Trevor did challenge Whale and call him chicken. So Whale had little choice but to accept.

And Slater – known for obsessively hounding issues – has turned his compulsive nature to the race and cycled about 15kg off his frame.

Best thing Labour has ever done for Cameron.

Slater, who Mallard calls an “obsessive character”, is relentless.

“He is a cripple. And he’s running a crippled campaign.'”

Slater has been in training and, as his physical fitness improved, so did his mental health.

Slater had publicly struggled with depression, and credits getting off anti-depressants, good vitamin B levels and a good diet with the improvement.

I should see if Trevor would challenge me to a half marathon – could be just the motivation I need 🙂

Otago University zoologist Philip Seddon said whales in the wild would always be faster than ducks.

“Almost whatever kind of whale you thought about,” he says.

Seddon – who runs the university’s Wildlife Management Programme – said smaller whales were faster.

Slater’s time could, perhaps, dictate whether the blogger was truly small and dangerous.

“Maybe he’s an orca… a killer whale,” said Seddon.

I love how they went to a zoologist for a comment!

The race starts at 1.30pm tomorrow, at Musick Point reserve at Auckland’s Buckland Beach.

If you’re up in Auckland go along to view the fun!

Chris Trotter writes:

It is, perhaps, the greatest achievement of John Key’s first term in government that the breakdown in social cohesion that Rob Campbell feared  and which we have just witnessed on the streets of England  has not taken place on our own.

For this the prime minister merits high praise.

What kept us together was his inspired decision to bring the Maori Party into his government. Had he not done so: had he simply relied on National’s natural allies in ACT; things could have been very different. The Maori seats, for example, would have been slated for abolition. This move, alone, threatening as it did the very existence of the Maori Party (and leaving them with dangerously little to lose) would have tested New Zealand’s social cohesion to breaking-point. Serious political disturbances  up to and including terrorist violence  could very easily have torn this country apart.

Simply for sparing us that terrible scenario, Mr Key deserves a second term.

I never thought I would see the day where Chris Trotter endorsed a National Prime Minister for re-election.

The latest story on the Labour leadership makes it quite clear someone is telling lies.

Now I think most would agree that a blog post from Matthew Hooton on the Labour leadership should not be taken as automatically accurate. Of course neither does it mean it is automatically wrong either.

But Trans-tasman reported on Thursday :

Meanwhile Goff questioned his front bench colleagues last week as to whether he should resign as leader. The questioning took place at a pre-caucus meeting of the front bench group. It followed publication of at least three opinion polls showing Labour slipping heavily in electoral popularity.

Caucus sources says the response to the question was muted, with one senior MP saying

“it’s up to you Phil.” There was no disagreement. The catalyst for a leadership discussion is the realisation if Labour slips further respected list MPs like Kelvin Davis and Stuart Nash may lose their places.

This has greater credibility. It references to a specific meeting on a specific date, involving a specific group of people. It refers to multiple sources and uses a quote from one of the sources, who by definition must be a frontbench MP or a senior Labour staffer.

Then we have today’s Dom Post:

An increasingly angry Labour leader Phil Goff is again facing leadership speculation after conflicting accounts over a meeting with some of his closest and most senior colleagues.

He furiously denied reports in political newsletter Trans-Tasman that he asked his frontbench MPs whether he should quit.

Several frontbench MPs backed Mr Goff, either describing the report as “bollocks” or insisting the discussion never took place. Others refused to comment.

But one senior Labour MP said the conversation did happen. “[Phil] did consult the front bench over whether he should go.”

Now I don’t think anyone really thinks that both Trans-tasman and Tracy Watkins are simply inventing stories and specific quotes.

This leaves two possibilities:

1. Goff did consult the front-bench on whether he should go, and is now lying about it
2. A member of the Labour front-bench has invented this story and fed it to the media in order to destabilise Goff

It goes without saying that neither scenario is particularly good for Goff and Labour.

I suspect the conversation did happen. I don’t judge Goff harshly for lying and denying it, because it is a reality of politics that you have to deny stuff like this, otherwise you are fatally wounded. Goff probably never imagined that one of his front bench colleagues would leak that he asked his senior colleagues if he should quit.

One Labour source has described the polls as “OK Corral” territory for Mr Goff, with a number of well-respected MPs set to lose their seats should Labour’s support drop any further.

But another MP said Mr Goff’s leadership should be safe – even though there were probably the numbers to roll him should any of the contenders put their hands up.No one wanted the leadership because it was such a “a poisoned chalice” this close to the election.

This sounds like at a minimum three different Labour MPs are talking to the media about Goff’s leadership, so I don’t think one can blame all of this on Matthew Hooton. What is interesting is the assertion that if someone stood, they would have the numbers to roll Goff.

On Q+A this Sunday… National’s partial state assets sales are shaping to be one of the most contentious issues of this year’s election. So sensitive, National refuses to debate them. ACT and Labour will, however. So live this Sunday with Guyon Espiner, ACT leader Don Brash and Labour’s Finance Spokesman David Cunliffe debate the pros and cons of selling shares in three power companies, a mining company and an airline. What do we stand to gain… and lose? Will we be better off with the cash or the assets?

Then, John Minto is putting aside the placard and megaphone to stand for parliament on behalf of the Mana Party. Thirty years on from the Springbok Tour that made him a polarising national figure, why has he chosen this election to seek office? What does he stand for now? And what are his chances?

Finally, Mark Sedwill was NATO’s civilian boss in Afghanistanand is now Britain’s Special Representative on Afghanistan/Pakistan. He’s in New Zealand next week to brief our government, but will speak to Paul  Holmes via satellite from London. With the fighting season in full swing and casualty rates in the past year at record highs, what’s the plan from here? And what message will he be delivering to theNew Zealand cabinet?

Joining Dr Jon Johansson on the panel will be CTU President Helen Kelly and former National Party President and PR consultant Michelle Boag.

Very sad news filtered through last night about the death of an SAS solider in Afghanistan. He is the fourth NZ or NZ born solider to die in Afghanistan in the last year, but the first from the SAS.

Thoughts and condolences to his family, comrades and friends.

In my column at the NZ Herald, I talk about the secondary battle – for electorate seats, and review the seats which are expected to be competitive.

Transtasman reported yesterday:

Meanwhile Goff questioned his front bench colleagues last week as to whether he should resign as leader. The questioning took place at a pre-caucus meeting of the front bench group. It followed publication of at least three opinion polls showing Labour slipping heavily in electoral popularity.

Caucus sources says the response to the question was muted, with one senior MP saying

“it’s up to you Phil.” There was no disagreement. The catalyst for a leadership discussion is the realisation if Labour slips further respected list MPs like Kelvin Davis and Stuart Nash may lose their places.

They’re just all waiting for Goff to lose, so they can axe him after the election instead and let him take the blame for the loss.

UPDATE: Stuff reports Goff denies he offered to quit. But of course you have to deny such stuff.

This conference is highly recommended. I know a dozen or so who have attended it, and all have raved about it.

In my “By the numbers” blog I outline how Preferential Voting (PV) works, and use Waitakere as an example of how PV may have had a different result to FPP, as vote preferences from the Greens may have seen Lynne Pillay keep her seat from Paula Bennett.

17 of the 70 electorates were won with a plurality, rather than a majority, of the votes and hence could have a different outcome under PV. Of course under PV there would be 120, not 70, electorates.

David Thorne is the very funny guy who became famous when he tried to pay a bill with a drawing of a spider. The e-mail correspondence showed his wind up style.

You can spend days reading his website, and laughing out loud. One of his more recent ones was this unsolicited e-mail from an American:

I have read your website and it is obviously that your a foggot.

Thorne replies:

Dear George,

Thank you for your email. While I have no idea what a foggot is, I will assume it is a term of endearment and appreciate you taking time out from calculating launch trajectories or removing temporal lobe tumors to contact me with such. I have attached a signed photo as per your request.

Regards, David.

George responds:

I didnt ask for a photo fag. and I meant faggot you homo. im not a fan so you can shove your signed photo up your ass. You would probably enjoy that. LOL!!!! Go suck your boyfriends dick in a gay club.

Such wit. Thorn replies:

While I do not have a boyfriend, I do have a friend who is homosexual and I once asked him “Do you ever think about having sex with me because you are gay?” to which he replied “Do you ever think about having sex with Rosie O’Donnell because you are straight? Same thing.” If I was inclined to have a boyfriend, I would select one my height and weight to save having to readjust the driver’s seat position. I am not interested in doubling my wardrobe as I wear the same outfit everyday to facilitate speedy identification should I ever be in a boating accident.

Anyway several more e-mails go back and forward, such as:

If you livd close by gaycunt I would be over your place with five friends tonight.

And the response:

I knew we would get along well. We have only known each other for one day and already you are organising a party. I am not sure where Gaycunt is but if I did “livd close by” to it, I would definitely be up for that.

Poor George responds:

no fag I live in Charleston west virginia the best country in the world. I wasnt sying it would be a party. we would smash your fucking skull in and if you are calling me a fag you can get fucked becasue I have a girlfriend.

And Thorne does some research:

Is she also your sister? I checked out her photos on your Facebook page and while she is not exactly my type, I accept that other people have different preferences. Even when those preferences include facial tattoos and stretch pants constructed from sufficient material to shelter a small village. And their livestock. Some men enjoy dancing with other men without their tops on while others prefer the company of a woman two KFC family buckets away from upsetting the planet’s rotational axis.

I read somewhere that Eskimos prefer women of girth as it provides warmth at night. I have seen the size of those igloos though and there is no way your girlfriend would make it through the opening. You could probably just construct one around her and despite the hassle of having to trudge out into the snow every day to catch and prepare the eighty seals required to maintain her mass, it would be like a kiln in there.

Guaranteed to get a response, which followed:

She isnt fat you fag. and that she got that tattoo is a teardrop becasue her family is dead.

And the wonderful response (remember George started this abuse):

Did she eat them?

This is the point at which I lost it. You can just imagine the impotent rage coming from Virginia.

But I just love the last three e-mails:

i hope you die of aids fag. Dont bothering emailing me again becasue I wont read it.

And Thorne e-mails back:

Yes you will.

And one can only piss yourself laughing as you read:

No I fucking wont fag

A battle of wits with an unarmed opponent indeed.

Well, after that Telecom campaign, there could only be one theme for today’s photo

Enjoy 🙂

click for larger, higher res image

iPredict says:

Key Points:

*             National could govern with one partner

*             Maori Party gets stronger in key electorates

*             Key economic indicators remained largely unchanged

Commentary:

John Key’s National Party will be able to form a government with their choice of Act, the Maori Party or UnitedFuture, accordingto this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict.  The frontrunner in almost every electorate has also strengthened their position this week, with Dr Pita Sharples’ seat of Tamaki-Makaurau enjoying the most significant rise.  In economics, key indicators (GDP growth, unemployment, OCR, and Current Account Deficit) have all remained unchanged, with the exception being inflation which is now lower in the short-term than previously expected.

Continue reading »

Sarah Young in the Nelson Mail reports:

Labour is recruiting “captains” to “wipe the smug grin” from Nelson MP Nick Smith’s face, but he was not smiling about the ploy today.

Dr Smith says Labour MP Maryan Street’s letter to Labour supporters asking for help with election campaigning is “pretty snide, negative stuff”.

The letter, signed by Labour’s campaign co-ordinator Kate Reilly, calls on people to “make a difference” by becoming a street captain to “motivate and mobilise voters on the day”.

“If we get it right we can be rid of Nick Smith as an electorate MP.

“It’s not complicated but it is important if you want to wipe that smug grin off Nick’s face.”

When I was a campaign manager, I never advocated nastiness towards my candidate’s opponent (Marian Hobbs). To the contrary I made a point of only saying positive things her in a personal, not political, sense.

Most voters don’t like the personal nastiness, and while the stuff about Nick is pretty mild (for Labour) it perhaps helps explain why Street lost the seat by 8,500 votes.