Mark Pincus writes:

I maxed out my giving in the last four presidential elections to the Democratic candidate: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Biden again, this cycle. 

Perhaps that makes me sound partisan, but I don’t align with either party. Like many of my peers in Silicon Valley, my views can be described as libertarian. I’m skeptical of big government, and both parties have recklessly printed money and spent the U.S. into a deep, dark debt hole. 

And unlike a lot of President Biden’s donors, I don’t think everything Donald Trump says or does is awful. I’ve been encouraged by the unwavering support for Israel he’s shown at the RNC this week. And looking back, I like that Trump was tough on China and Iran, and that he pushed European countries to contribute their fair share to NATO. 

I am also very scared of the extreme left, who seem to hate capitalism—a force I see as the engine of our exceptional country.

So why did I throw my support behind Biden?

Because throughout this campaign I have thought that a second Trump presidency is risky. In the past he has supported right-wing policies on abortion and climate. He’s also been oddly positive about dictators like Vladimir Putin. 

At this week’s RNC, the party of Trump sounds more mainstream. Who knows which Trump we will get? It’s a gamble. 

In December I attended a small lunch conversation with Biden. He was engaging and thoughtful. Our interactions gave me confidence that he still had enough drive to beat Trump a second time and be a reliable leader.

Seven months later, I have a radically different perspective. Biden looks even riskier than Trump. His debate performance made his age and competency the central issue in the 2024 election. And Biden and the Democratic Party seem to be moving further left by the day. 

Many of us are left wondering who is currently running the country. How else to explain the insane proposal he just put forward to put caps on grocery prices and rent increases?

Biden campaigned on being the moderate candidate. But in office he has been pushing a policy agenda Bernie Sanders would love – rent controls, price controls and student debt write-offs.

Only one strategy has a chance for the party and the country: an open convention. There’s nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Turning the convention into an open forum would be dramatic and exciting, and offer the best chance to produce a leader with a positive, mainstream agenda for our country. Someone we could trust more than Trump, but with a platform that is also about economic growth, secure borders, support for allies like Israel, and climate and civil liberties protection. Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Cory Booker are strong contenders. There are also black swan outsiders who could energize this race.

I think Biden will go soon, but I think they will avoid an open convention by having him endorse Harris.

UPDATE: This was written before Biden announced he will step down as candidate, and he has endorsed Harris. I’ve left it on the schedule as I think the points made about Biden implementing such bizarre policies from the hard left.

Wiremu Allen is a Third Striker.  He has more than 60 criminal convictions, including for aggravated robbery.

He has been a member of both the Mongrel Mob and the King Cobras gangs.

For his first strike, he strangled his partner. Fortunately she survived.

For his second strike, he committed a robbery.

For his third strike, with an associate, he committed a home invasion armed with pistols. He bashed the victim and his associate shot the victim in the knee, before robbing him and fleeing the scene. He was sentenced to the maximum term of 7 years imprisonment for the Third Strike conviction for wounding with reckless disregard.

But under the Government’s proposed re-introduction of Three Strikes 2.0, he will be on a clean slate.  His prior strike offences count for nothing, and he is a zero striker.

Just as bad, under the Government’s proposed Three Strikes 2.0, Mr Allen would not qualify as a Third Striker if he did it all again!

This is because it is proposed that a person would only be a striker if they had been sentenced to more than 24 months imprisonment for all strike offences.

For Mr Allen’s first strike offence – injuring with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – he was only sentenced to 10 months imprisonment.  For his second strike offence – robbery – he was sentenced to just 13 and a half months imprisonment.

Neither meet the Government’s threshold to be considered a striker AT ALL!

Now this is where it gets interesting: 

Two years ago, a: prominent politician opined:

“It is unimaginable that offenders such as Wiremu Allen, who was convicted of a third strike offence which entailed breaking into a house, demanding money from the victim and then shooting him, would not receive the maximum mandatory sentence today.

“Labour’s soft on crime approach has made New Zealand a less safe country.

“Victim advocate groups submitted strongly against the repeal, noting more victims will be created by the Bill. Repealing Three Strikes means that offenders will be back in the community earlier, creating the conditions for more offending.

“National will reinstate Three Strikes. This legislation is necessary to ensure repeat offenders are sentenced in line with the expectations of the communities they want to live in.”

Who was that politician?  Well, it was none other than the National Party’s Justice Spokesman, Paul Goldsmith, who is now the Justice Minister!!! Three Strikes repeal makes New Zealand less safe (national.org.nz)

Two years after making the above statement, Paul Goldsmith of 2024 should listen to Paul Goldsmith of 2022, not Ministry of Justice officials who hate three strikes.

You can sign up for campaign updates to toughen the law and support the campaign at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz.

You can make a submission at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz/submission

Joe Biden is out as the Democratic candidate. Has not endorsed Kamala Harris so looks like a contested convention which is very exciting.

UPDATE: He has now endorsed Harris. However this is not binding on his delegates. It may discourage other candidates though.

The Taxpayers’ Union has a useful summary of the average rates increase for every Council. They seem oblivious to the cost of living crisis many families face.

The seven largest hikes are:

1. Wellington Region 20.6%
2. West Coast Region 27.0%
3. Gore 21.4%
4. Central HB 20%
5. Napier 20%
6. Upper Hutt 19.9%
7. Wairoa 19.5%

Not all of them have disregard for ratepayers though. Shout out to:

1. Far North 4.5%
2. Chathams 6.7%
3. Auckland 6.8%
4. Ashburton 6.5%
5. Waikato Region 6.0%

Chris Bishop announced:

“In March this year Ministers said enough was enough. We formally instructed Kāinga Ora to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework, and to strengthen their management of disruptive tenants.  

“Three months on, it is encouraging to see some green shoots of change beginning to emerge. For example, in the past three months 14 Kāinga Ora tenancies have been terminated due to disruptive behaviour or persistent rent arrears. Kāinga Ora also has an additional 25 applications to end tenancies for these reasons awaiting decisions by the Tenancy Tribunal. This is compared to only eight tenancies terminated for disruptive behaviour or rent arrears the whole of 2023. 

“We’ve also seen an increase in Section 55A formal warning notices issued to tenants for disruptive behaviour, with 80 issued in the past three months compared to 13 for the same period last year.”  

People behave better when there are consequences for bad behaviour. It isn’t rocket science.

Kingi RATIMA is a Third Striker.  He is a recidivist robber and a recidivist burglar.

Aged in his mid-30s, he has over 105! criminal convictions as an adult and an unknown number of youth court convictions.

Probation has assessed him at a very high risk of reoffending and poses a high risk of harm to others. Obviously.

For his third strike, he attacked a man unprovoked, throwing the victim to the ground and repeatedly stomping on the victim’s head.  The victim could easily have died or suffered life-altering injuries. Kingi Ratima was convicted on a charge of robbery.

He is a menace to law abiding society and a danger to those he comes in contact with.

Under the Government’s proposed re-introduction of Three Strikes 2.0, he will be on a clean slate.  His prior strike offences count for nothing, and he is a zero striker.

Just as bad, under the Government’s proposed Three Strikes 2.0, Kingi Ratima would not qualify as a Third Striker if he did it all again!

This is because it is proposed that a person would only be a striker if they had been sentenced to more than 24 months imprisonment for all strike offences.

For Kingi Ratima’s first strike offence – a robbery – he was only sentenced to 1 year imprisonment.  For his second strike offence – another robbery – he was sentenced to just 1 year and 4 months imprisonment.Neither meet the Government’s threshold to be considered a striker AT ALL!

Which MPs wife was overheard on a recent flight telling fellow passengers that she is the Olivia Pope of New Zealand.

She also went on to mention she is a gold elite passenger, her husband is a politician as is her cousin and she is a consultant.

A guest post from Sparticus Oblivious:

Those of us that still watch free to air TV have seen the ACC ad showing a guy who decides not to leap off the top of a waterfall, because he might hurt himself. That’s the government trying to keep us safe.

You will have seen those ads where you have to buy an expensive car, because otherwise you will die in a crash, That’s the government trying to keep us safe

We all suffered stay at home orders and mask mandates in 2020, that was the government trying to keep us safe….. from a fricken virus

Wellington Library was buzzing with people in February of 2019, In March it was too dangerous to enter, that’s councils trying to keep us safe

Sky rockets are banned, we slip slop and slap instead of putting on tanning lotion, Jungle gyms and Bull Rush are banned and lint in your drier is going to burn your house down.

Safe safe safe, who can argue against safe

Well umm, me

If we are turned towards safety, what are we turned away from? Adventure, Mission, excitement, Entrepreneurship a life well lived.

How about we populate our speech with words like; stoic, Heroic, Courageous, Resilient, Brave Characterful, self-reliant, rather than the contemporary and often psychological values like; Safe, Kind, Compassionate, Vulnerable, victim. The latter all have their place, but let’s not put them at the top of the values pyramid.

I have a mate who spent his whole life doing Health and Safety in a large organisation but get him on the ski field and he’s a demon for speed and probably unconsciously, the thrill of danger that goes with it. All the young ones on the ski field have their helmets on, not him, he’s the personification of a pre airbag car.

So going back to our mate deciding whether to jump off the top of the waterfall

Of course he should jump. Youth is about being foolhardy, It’s about bad decisions, it’s about doing things that are genuinely dangerous. 

If he went bravely to the top of the waterfall and leaped in, the women thereabouts would unconsciously know which of the parade of mediocrity in front of them they should mate with 

They would know the brave leaper to be exciting and forthright and likely consummate the gene splicing there and then.

To precis Thoreau, “we need to live deliberately… and let us not, when we come to die, discover that we have not lived”

Grahame RUTHERFORD is a Third Striker.  He is a recidivist offender who sexually assaults children, in particular, little girls.  He cannot keep his hands to himself.

Aged in his 60s, he has multiple criminal convictions as an adult and has been offending since at least 1993.

For his third strike, he once again targeted a defenceless little girl in a retail shop and sexually assaulted her. He was convicted on a charge of doing an indecent act on a child.  He is a danger to little girls and they deserve protection from him.

Under the Government’s proposed re-introduction of Three Strikes 2.0, he will be on a clean slate.  His prior strike offences count for nothing, and he is a zero striker.

You can sign up for campaign updates to toughen the law and support the campaign at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz.

You can make a submission at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz/submission

A guest post by Lucy Rogers:

I woke up this morning to initial elation at the news that Israel and Hamas are apparently close to a ceasefire deal. The proposal involves the return of 33 hostages and Hamas’ removal from power, in exchange for the release of several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, Israel’s withdrawal from eastern Gaza and a ceasefire in stages. 

But a bilateral ceasefire means among other things the release of the hostages. In my initial jubilation at the proposed deal I assumed as a matter of course that the remaining hostages would also be released in subsequent phases of the ceasefire. Not so. My illusions were shattered by further research, confirming that 33 hostages only will be released: https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-798797

I speak now directly to John Minto, Neil Scott and the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa: will you extend your admirable concern for human life to “the other side” and speak out now for the 90 desperate human beings held captive deep underground in Gaza, who face imminent abandonment by their own government? You have called for a ceasefire for months. Presumably you meant a bilateral ceasefire. Will you call for Hamas to free the hostages?

Will you hold a protest down Queen Street this weekend condemning Hamas? Will you wave Israeli flags, just as I wore a Palestinian flag several times to your protests in solidarity with the people of Gaza?

It is tika (right) for you to highlight the ongoing atrocities committed against civilians in Gaza. For example, no-one could question that the use of “dumb bombs” in which missile targets are selected by artificial intelligence which is subject to technological glitches which result in the deaths of innocents is abhorrent.

Yesterday in Khan Younis a kura (school) was bombed in order to eliminate a terrorist who was present there. In the process Israel killed children who were playing football. The shocking incident was captured live on camera: 

https://twitter.com/IhabHassane/status/1810802673769210239

Israel’s practice of administrative detention (see for example the case of Layan Nasir: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/shhh-or-ill-shoot-you-family-of-jailed-christian-woman-tell-of-israeli-raid) and extrajudicial killings in the West Bank is deplorable. Every human being has the right to a fair trial and a rōia (lawyer), and where hara (guilt) is established, the right to proportionate punishment. Palestinian tamariki (children) who have been imprisoned indefinitely for (say) throwing a stone should be released immediately. 

But will the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa also protest human rights abuses on the other side?

The Herald reports:

Auckland University is launching a dedicated area in its main library in which students and staff can practice speaking te reo Māori.

From Wednesday ReoSpace will reflect the need for public spaces where te reo Māori is the primary language spoken. Encouraging te reo Māori use is in keeping with the University’s strategy for te reo Māori revitalisation.

ReoSpace is led by a dedicated team that includes Te Tumu Herenga, Library and Learning Services, Kaiārahi and PhD researcher, Abigail McClutchie (Te Rarawa, Ngāti Porou). She says ReoSpace is for all levels of te reo, and open to all kaimahi (staff), tauira (students) and manuhiri (visitors or guests).

This is not at all offensive, and in fact is laudable. Having spaces restricted to people of particular races is offensive, but having a space designed for people to practice and converse in a particular language is not.

This shows the Predictit price for Biden being the Democrat nominee. It is now down to 24c which means a 24% probability only.

Just a month ago he was at almost 90%. Then the debate on 27 June saw him drop to 61%. Speculation he may withdraw saw him drop top around 40%

His 11 July press conference and the assassination attempt on Trump saw his chances rise to 70%. But then a combination of senior Democrats urging him out and Biden getting Covid has seen it drop to 24%.

This one shows the odds of him being re-elected President in red. He was just behind Trump at 45%, declined to 30% and today is at just 12%. So the betting markets give him not even a 1 in 8 chance of winning.

I will be amazed if Biden doesn’t withdraw as the candidate in the next few days. What I think is up in the air is three things.

• Will Biden resign as candidate only or also as President. If he does the letter then Kamala Harris won’t have to fight for the nomination and gets the advantage of incumbency
• If Biden remains President, will there be a contested vote at the convention, or will they try to coronate Harris on the basis she is already on the ticket. Will Biden explicitly endorse her?
• Who will be the VP candidate?

Zenyata THOMSON is a Third Striker.  He is a recidivist aggravated robber.

Aged in his early 20s, he already has over 20 criminal convictions as an adult and is believed have multiple youth court convictions also. He is a gang associate.

For his third strike, he was convicted on 6 counts of aggravated robbery. He is a menace to law abiding society.

Under the Government’s proposed re-introduction of Three Strikes 2.0, he will be on a clean slate.  His prior strike offences count for nothing, and he is a zero striker.

Just as bad, under the Government’s proposed Three Strikes 2.0, Mr Thomson would not qualify as a Third Striker if he did it all again!

This is because it is proposed that a person would only be a striker if they had been sentenced to more than 24 months imprisonment for all strike offences.

For Mr Thomson’s first strike offence – an aggravated robbery – he was only sentenced to 1 year and 9 months imprisonment.  For his second strike offence – another aggravated robbery – he was sentenced to 1 year and 11 months imprisonment.Neither meet the Government’s threshold to be considered a striker AT ALL!

You can sign up for campaign updates to toughen the law and support the campaign at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz.

You can make a submission at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz/submission

There is media fuss today around the resistance of schools in terms of excluding students excluded from other schools. The NZ Herald highlights statistics that 100s of schools appear to be reluctant and three remain outright resistant.

The article highlights the legal obligation for schools to accept students in their zone. This can be ordered through a Ministry letter. Schools can also fight for extra resourcing for one of these previously excluded students – but don’t always get it.

What the media people are missing today is the other important legal obligation that is often in direct conflict with that of accepting students. The obligation is the very heavy requirements to provide a safe environment for students and staff. If they fail to do so the sanctions can be very punitive and significant.

Having been on both State and Private School Boards you can live in fear when accepting students with very poor discipline records. I know of schools that have been required to accept – a youth offender that had killed during a robbery, and arsonist, drug sellers, habitually violent youth (against teachers and students), sexual offenders, habitual thieves, etc. A Board of Trustees nightmare is the death or maiming of a staff member or students – but there are a whole range of other harms.

This is a way bigger discussion than – “schools are required by law to enrol these students.”

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants Ltd
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

PS: Part of a discussion here on the effects of draconian rules for students changing schools for sporting opportunities: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby/school-rugby/first-xv-rugby-wrap-the-lost-points-of-dilworth-to-auckland-grammar/IH3VJJ6CVRDZRMB4J6NYRWUVZE/

PPS: A privilege to be on Duncan’s yesterday show (20 minutes into the link) on Charter Schools

Stuff reports:

The Labour Government paid consultancy firms a whopping $64m for work establishing the now defunct Three Waters reform project – money that ultimately went down the drain.

Stuff can reveal that multi-national professional services company PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) was the biggest winner – paid $35m for work it did on the project.

Fellow “big four” companies EY ($9.3m), Deloitte ($532,000) and KPMG ($352,000) also raked in the cash as the Government worked to hand control of water management to four big regional entities.

So if they were paying $200/hour then there was 320,000 hours of consultants spent on this daft project. That is equal to 160 person years of consultants.

1 News reports:

The Government has won a long-running pay dispute with the police union.

The parties could not agree on a pay deal after about a year of talks, so an independent arbitrator – employment law specialist Vicki Campbell – was brought in to decide which of the final offers would be adopted.

Today, the arbitrator was in favour of the Government’s offer, which includes a $1500 lump sum payment, a flat $5000 pay increase for officers, plus another 4% increase in July and again in 2025.

There will also be a 5.25% increase in allowances backdated to last November.

Also overtime at time and a half, which is very significant. I said previously the Government’s final offer (not the initial one) was very reasonable.

It is very significant that the arbitrator chose the Government’s offer. Off memory this is the only time in many decades that an arbitrator has not chosen the Police Association’s offer. This shows the Police Association let its members down by setting unrealistic expectations.

The Sensible Sentencing Trust has announced:

Before Labour repealed it in 2022, the Three Strikes law operated for 12 years from 2010.

In that time, there were:

• 14,687 First strikers
• About 750 second strikers
• 25 Third Strikers

Every one of the 25 Third Strikers was a recidivist serious violent or sexual offender, by definition, having committed at least three “strike” offences.

However, the Government’s proposed Three Strikes 2.0 will not only give a “clean slate” to all prior strike offenders, the minimum 24 months imprisonment threshold waters it down so severely, that less than 30% of Third Strike offenders would qualify as Third Strikers if they committed the same offences again!

• Only 7 of the 25 Third Strikers would be Third Strikers if they did it all again.
• 6 of the 25 Third Strikers would only be Second Strikers if they did it all again.
• 11 of the 25 Third Strikers would only be First Strikers if they did it all again.
• 1 of the 25 Third Strikers would be a Zero Strikers if he did it all again.

A coalition Government that consistently talked tough at the last election can and must do better than this.

The proposed Three Strikes Reinstatement Bill is now before the Justice Select Committee and public submissions are open until next Tuesday 23 July.The Sensible Sentencing Trust has launched a campaign website which allows submissions to be made quickly and easily.  

You can sign up for campaign updates and support the campaign at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz.

You can make a submission at https://www.stop3strikessellout.nz/submission

Stats NZ reported:

New Zealand’s consumers price index increased 3.3 percent in the 12 months to the June 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

While it is good to see inflation coming down, I would be wary of concluding the job is done, when you look at non-tradeables vs tradeables.

Tradeable inflation has fallen from 5.2% a year ago to 0.3%. This is the global impact. In fact it has fallen for the last three quarters.

Non-tradeable inflation is still at a high 5.4%. Only down a bit from 6.6% a year ago. Now the quarterly figure was a more modest 0.9% which is a more tolerable level. However I’d be tempted to wait until we get the Sep 24 quarter inflation before cutting interest rates.

The Herald reports:

Transport Minister Simeon Brown is coming for road cones, announcing a suite of measures that he says will curb the excessive use of the traffic management tool on our streets.

Brown said the current level of temporary traffic management (TTM) was “out of control”.

“Excessive use of road cones and temporary speed limit reductions – sometimes left in place when work is complete – simply increases cost, forces people to slow down, and frustrates drivers,” Brown said.

“In fact, the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) conducted a review of TTM at 800 maintenance worksites on the state highway network across the country in February and found that 145 of these sites were not needed, showing how out of control the use of road cones and temporary traffic management has become,” Brown said.

This does not surprise me. A couple of days ago spent around five minutes in a queue as four roads had been made one way under traffic management due to some work being done. But the work was not on any road. It was on the large median strip between roads. A few years ago there would have been no traffic management and workers would simply wait for a break in traffic to cross the road.