PM lauds complete certainty

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s oil industry is urging the Government not to rush through a law change which the Prime Minister says is being passed quickly to allow new oil exploration permits to be offered. …

“We are giving certainty to those who currently hold permits and those who would be seeking an onshore block offer that we will honour the commitments around those permits,” Ardern said, dismissing claims that there may be a lack of interest given uncertainty created by the decision.

“Actually, what we are looking at here is giving greater certainty, rather than year on year, around the onshore offers, than they otherwise would have,” she said. 

This is a new level of spin.

She bans an entire industry giving it no future and lauds it as offering greater or complete certainty.

This is like a doctor telling a patient “Good news, we have complete certainty in your diagnosis. You’re going to be dead in six week”

Actually Councils are the farce

The ODT reports:

Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull has taken another swipe at the country’s approach to local alcohol policies, saying the system is ”a farce” that puts commercial interests before communities.

He was commenting as councillors received an annual report from the Dunedin District Licensing Committee, covering its work for the year to June.

The report noted the council’s watered-down local alcohol policy has been referred back to the Alcohol Regulatory and Licensing Authority (ARLA) for approval.

The policy was stripped of key changes earlier this year after being successfully appealed by a group including supermarket chains and liquor stores, leaving only uncontested aspects of the policy to be rolled out in Dunedin.

Mr Cull, speaking at yesterday’s meeting, said he wanted to reiterate the approach to local alcohol policies (LAPs) nationally effectively put commercial interests ahead of community wellbeing.

The burden of proof was on councils to prove their policies would reduce alcohol-related harm, despite an earlier royal commission having already identified the factors exacerbating that harm, he said.

What Cull doesn’t like is the law requires that little thing called evidence. He thinks Councils should have the power to impose whatever restrictions the politicians like, regardless of evidence.

If you want to stop mums or dads being able to buy a bottle of wine at a supermarket at 9.30 pm while they do their weekly groceries shop, you have to have evidence that being able to buy wine from a supermarket at that time causes harm.

Councils have lost most of the appeals because either to Councillors or staff have ignored the law. They’re blaming the law, but they should blame themselves.

Government may backtrack on residency for prisoner

Stuff reports:

Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway will review the case of a drug smuggler who was granted residency while serving jail time after “new information”.

Karel Sroubkek had been handed an unprecedented get-out-of-jail card in getting residency, instead of being deported after serving his prison sentence.

Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway made the special decision, even though the 37-year-old Czech national came to New Zealand on a false passport and is now serving time in Auckland South prison for importing drugs with a street value of $375,000. …

However, Newstalk ZB reported that Sroubek’s had already been back to the Czech Republic – which would mean his claim he’d be hunted down if he returned to his home country doesn’t ring true.

On Wednesday, Lees-Galloway told Parliament that shortly before he arrived at Question Time he had become aware that “information may exist that appears on the face of it to directly contradict information that I used and relied upon to make that decision.

“I am now taking advice on my options and need to consider the veracity or the new information that has been made available to me.”

So the Minister didn’t even try to verify the claims of the convicted criminal. He just believed him despite the Parole Board just weeks ago saying he was a liar.

The PM and Deputy PM both backed him, and said it was the right call.

They have the entire Government behind them and they never thought to verify his claims. Instead it took the media to do it.

Muppets!

Whoops missed this gem:

Lees-Galloway tried to avoid reporters on the way into House on Wednesday by hiding behind a pillar for several minutes before telling them he was late to Question Time and would not talk to them till after.

A Minister of the Crown hid behind a pillar for several minutes to try and avoid the media! What a clown.

Ball supporting the Defence industry

A good op ed by NZ First MP Darroch Ball:

Very shortly Palmerston North will be hosting the Defence Industry Association’s annual conference.

We have been hearing it called a “weapons conference” and some of the employers labelled “merchants of death”.

But, unfortunately, the truth is a little inconvenient for some and while we support the right to protest there is an obligation to tell the whole truth.

Yes the defence industry sells equipment, services and supplies to the New Zealand Defence Force. 

But it would be an incredible stretch to say this is a “weapons conference”. The vast majority of attendees have nothing at all to do with weapons.

The fact is, this conference brings together businesses that sell things like apples, toilet paper, spare parts, electronics, steel and clothing to the Defence Force. Many of these businesses have a presence in Palmerston North and employ thousands of people right across the country.

If you have a defence force, you need to supply it. Those who want the western world to disarm are as misguided as their 1980s counterparts who advocated unilateral disarmament. If we had listened to them, the Soviet Union would still rule Eastern Europe.

The Defence Force is small by global standards and it spends the majority of its time patrolling our fisheries, protecting our environment, working in Antarctica, helping our Pacific partners, peacekeeping, helping foreign nations get back on their feet, supporting disaster relief efforts, training our young people and performing search and rescue operations.

If we are sending our daughters and sons overseas to uphold peace, protect the innocent and help nations build their capacity to govern themselves, then we absolutely must give them the best equipment possible, so they can come home safely.

Absolutely.

A benefit for us from Brexit

Stuff reports:

In the lead-up to Brexit, New Zealanders and Australians are being given permission to use the electronic passport gates at UK airports previously reserved for European citizens.

Americans, Canadians and Japanese citizens will also be granted the privilege, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond announced on Tuesday (NZT) as part of the new budget. 

The move should reduce the time it takes travellers from the five countries to move through UK airports. 

A nice benefit for Kiwi travellers. I love using the e-passport gates in NZ and Australia. Hugely quicker than the manual queues.

PM says don’t blame us if he offends again

The Herald reports:

Sroubek was also previously acquitted of committing an aggravated robbery with two members of the Hells Angels.

Ardern said Sroubek was now on “absolute notice”.

What happens to him in the future is not on the minister’s, of the Government’s, or New Zealand’s conscience. It’s on his.”

Well it might not be on her conscience but it should be if he offends again.

It’s about the policy, not the people

The 24 year old couple who won the Kiwibuild lottery did nothing wrong. They are in the same situation as the multi millionaire who still claims their NZ Super, or the Deputy Prime Minister who claims his winter energy payment. If the Government hands out free money, or subsidised houses, then of course you’re going to say yes. You’re stupid not to.

I’ll claim NZ Super when I’m 65 as I’m not a moron. If I qualified for Kiwibuild, then I’d enter the lottery. If I won the lottery I’d move into the Kiwibuild house for three years and then sell it for a nice $200,000 profit.

But if the Government holds this couple up up as the poster child family for a policy, then it is entirely legitimate to point out that the policy is daft and badly targeted, as Judith Collins and others (including me) have done.

Kiwibuild was billed as helping middle income kiwis who can’t afford a house.

No one ever thought it would be giving a 24 year old couple a cheap four bedroom house. How many 24 year old couples have ever been able to buy a four bedroom house? You normally start small and build up.

People thought it would be helping middle income New Zealanders. Now they qualify under the criteria because their current income is under $180,000.But that is because they are only 24 years old. In a few years their income will probably be in the top 1%.

One of them is a doctor and the other a marketer. Income data shows that their likely lifetime income premium, compared to someone who didn’t go to university, is $3.6 million and $2.0 million. So a combined income premium of $5.6 million.

National would not be doing their job if they didn’t point out that the Kiwibuild criteria and policy are so badly designed that Kiwibuild houses are not in any way being allocated on need, but sheer luck.

Again the couple did nothing wrong entering the Kiwibuild lottery, and winning.

But the Government decided to promote them as a poster child family for the policy. The Government is responsible for the scrutiny that goes with that. They are just going on the attack and smearing Judith Collins because they know that the more scrutiny of Kiwibuild there is, the worse it looks in terms of assisting needy families.

We’re going to start importing coal!

The Herald reports:

Genesis Energy is looking at importing coal as it grapples with a tight wholesale electricity market and a shortage of gas.

So banning further gas exploration is a pretty moronic thing to do then, if you care abotu greenhouse gas emissions.

NZX-listed Genesis Energy’s gas- and coal-powered station at Huntly has been using its two generating units, known as Rankines, to make up the shortfall.

The units can run on gas or coal, but the gas shortage, caused by an outage on the offshore Pohukura production platform, means they have been running on the latter.

Chief executive Marc England said current constraints faced by the market were “exceptional” and should serve as a reminder to the Government, which has stopped issuing offshore oil and gas exploration permits to show its commitment to action on climate change, as to the importance of gas.

“We are close to pushing the button on some coal imports because we need to keep our stocks up at Huntly so that we can keep the lights on,” he told the Herald.

Natural gas has around half the impact coal does on greenhouse gas emissions. Yet the Government has banned further exploration of it, meaning we will import coal.

Inflation hits 1.9%

Stats NZ reports:

The consumers price index (CPI) increased 1.9 percent in the September 2018 year, driven by higher petrol prices, Stats NZ said today.

This follows a 1.5 percent annual inflation rate for the June 2018 year. For the September 2018 quarter, the inflation rate was 0.9 percent.

“Petrol prices increased 19 percent in the September 2018 year,” prices senior manager Paul Pascoe said. “This is the highest annual increase since June 2011.” …

A 3.5 cents per litre nationwide increase in petrol tax was introduced on 30 September. The effects of this price increase will be seen in the December 2018 quarter.

So the excise tax increase not yet taken into account.

1.9% inflation isn’t too bad. But if it starts to exceed 2%, then the Reserve Bank might look towards hiking interest rates, which will hit home owners.

Merkel to retire

Stuff reports:

Germany’s Angela Merkel has announced that she will step down as head of her conservative party in December after 18 years and won’t seek a fifth term as chancellor in 2021, launching a leadership transition in Europe’s biggest economy.

Merkel has led her conservative Christian Democratic Union since 2000 and Germany since 2005. She put Germany – and Europe – on track toward a new political era after voters punished Germany’s governing parties in a state election Sunday, the latest in a string of woes to hit her fourth-term federal administration.

Merkel has been the stability in Europe for so long. In total she will do 21 years as party leader and 16 years as Chancellor.

Her biggest mistake was the opening of the borders to allow unrestricted refugee flows. It was a humanitarian gesture but has generated a huge backlash.

The longest serving German Chancellors have been:

  1. Prince Otto von Bismarck (19 years)
  2. Helmut Kohl (16 years)
  3. Konrad Adenauer (14 years)
  4. Adolf Hitler (12 years)

So Merkel will end up between Kohl and Adenauer for longevity.

The failure of Brazil

Huff Post reports:

The rise of right-wing movements and parties across the globe took a giant and dangerous leap forward Sunday when far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidential election. …

His victory will put Brazil, the fourth-largest democracy in the world and the largest in Latin America, in the hands of a far-right figure who has expressed little appreciation for democratic governance and has consistently aimed violent rhetoric at black Brazilians, LGBTQ people, women and indigenous people. 

Bolsonaro was stabbed during a campaign event in September and spent much of the election’s final two months campaigning from a hospital bed.

He will now take the reins of a beleaguered and discontented country. Over the last four years, Brazil has experienced a deep economic recession that it has struggled to escape, a sharp uptick in violent crime that has resulted in 60,000 homicides annually, and a widespread political corruption probe that has implicated hundreds of politicians from across the political spectrum.

Since its last presidential election in 2014, one president, Dilma Rousseff, has been impeached; another former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been imprisoned on corruption charges; and its current president, Michel Temer, has been linked to a political bribery scheme.

Bolsonaro sounds a pretty nasty piece of work. But his elections reminds us that the extremes do well, when the incumbent parties fail. The fact he says nasty things about minorities pails in comparison with a murder toll of 60,000 a year, the last presidents all corrupt, and a failed economy.

Brazil, like Venezuela, used to have a reasonable economy. But they have bloated state pensions where you retire at age 55 on your near full salary. Unemployment is now over 12%. The economy shrunk 8% in 2015 and 2016.

I doubt it will improve under Bolsonaro. But desperate people vote for desperate politicians.

What the Parole Board said

Here’s the Parole Board decision on Karel Sroubek or Jan Antolik. Extracts:

  • evident however on his own admissions to the Board at the hearing before us that he was at that time associating with criminal elements in the Czech Republic
  • has continued to do so is evident from his index offending which involved him being in contact with somebody that he had known in the Czech Republic (and we bear in mind that he left that country some 11 years ago now) who he says persuaded him to become involved in importing ecstasy through his importing business.
  • admits to having associated with members of the Hells Angels gang
  • his responses were self-exculpatory, evasive, long-winded and ultimately in our view in many respects manifestly untruthful

Basically he was a criminal in the Czech Republic, he carried on being a criminal here, working with his criminal mates back home. He is associated with the Hells Angels and is a liar.

The PM says she backs her Minister’s decision to grant him permanent residency in NZ. She also won’t say why but at best we can guess they believe his story that he would be at risk from police officers if sent back to the Czech Republic.

Considering the Parole Board has concluded he is a liar, have they considered that his entire story is a lie? That he left the Czech Republic to avoid prosecution there?

The Czech Republic is in the EU. It isn’t North Korea or Iran. It is a first world country. His story is self serving, and I bet you the Government has just accepted his word, rather than verified his claims.

The Minister should take note of the Parole Board’s conclusion that he is a liar and a risk to the public, and deport him once he is out of prison rather than grant his permament residency through special dispensation.

 

Huge increase in overseas votes because of e-voting

One of the debates around the proposed e-voting trial for nine local government elections next year is whether allowing e-voting over the Internet increases turnout. In some cases it hasn’t, in a couple it has. But overseas comparisons are less useful than a NZ comparison, and as it happens we have some very strong data on what an option to cast your vote via the Internet does to turnout.

For the 2014 and 2017 general elections the Electoral Commission has allowed overseas voters to cast their vote via the Internet. Basically they take a photo or scan of their completed ballot paper and upload it via the EC website.

So what has this option done to the number of overseas votes in general elections?

So around 20,000 overseas votes in 2011 and 60,000 in 2017. That is a huge change.

But maybe it is just more people everywhere voted in these elections. So let’s look at overseas voters as a percentage of total turnout.

So the proportion of overseas voters has gone from just under 1% to almost 2.5%.

But is this because overseas voters are using the Internet option? Maybe they’re faxing their votes in. Let’s look at the breakdown for each MMP election.

So very obvious it is the additional option of voting via the Internet that has led to the increase. Also it doesn’t seem to be at the expense of those voting in person at an overseas post. In fact they have increased since 2011 also.  It is fax and postal that is dying off.

To me this means that there isn’t a case to have e-voting available domestically for parliamentary elections. We have high turnout for these, and most NZers are close to a polling place.

But local body elections only have an option of postal voting or popping into a council office. The evidence from overseas voting for our last two general elections suggests that an Internet option could well lead to significant increase in turnout.

And that of course is what a trial is about. We’ll be able to see if turnout increases for those Councils that offer this option.

Internet voting has risks of course. But this data also show potentially considerable benefits. The challenge is to maximise the benefits and minimise the risks.

Yes it is like winning Lotto

The Herald reported:

In the middle of the moment were a young couple, Derryn Jayne and Fletcher Ross, the proud owners of a new four-bedroom KiwiBuild home on Regiment Way costing $649,000.

“It feels amazing, it feels like we have won the Lotto,” said Jayne, who at 25 and about to graduate as a doctor, was thrilled at winning a ballot for one of the first 18 KiwiBuild homes at McLennan Park.

Jayne and her 24-year-old partner Ross, an online marketer, were on the verge of giving up hope of getting on the property ladder in Auckland before “getting lucky” with KiwiBuild.

“Not many people can say their first home is a brand new one,” said 24-year-old Ross, whose home, smelling of fresh paint and carpet, was opened to inspection by the media and photos with the Prime Minister.

Jayne is right. It is like winning Lotto. Every month a few lucky families will get a house at a discounted price, subsidized by taxpayers. It won’t be the most needy families that get them, just those who win the ballot.

Not taking anything away from Jayne and Ross, who got lucky. Good on them.

But let’s look at their circumstances and consider whether they are the most needy family for a subsidized four bedroom house.

  • Aged mid 20s,
  • Double income, both with potentially high income jobs
  • No kids
  • Has traveled to NYC, New Jersey, Paris, Berlin, Hawaii, Samoa, Rome, Venice, Netherlands, Munich, Athens, Santorini, London, Ibiza and Dubronvik all by the age of 24!

Again good on them for their great luck. But Kiwibuild is going to cost billions of dollars and should subsidised housing go towards the most needy, or just be done like Lotto?

The full background of the guy given residency by Labour

I blogged yesterday on how Iain Lees-Galloway has granted permanent residency to a prisoner (Jan Antolik) who was due to be deported when released. Well his full record is worth looking at. Here it is:

  1. 2003: Entered NZ with a false passport
  2. 2010: Arrested with two Hells Angels on aggravated robbery and blackmail charges. Guilt not proven beyond reasonable doubt.
  3. 2011: Found guilty of using false passport and giving false details to Immigration officials
  4. 2011: Arrested as part of Operation Ark, a covert investigation into Ecstasy-like pills.
  5. 2012: Discharged without conviction on false identity charges
  6. 2014: Convicted of manufacturing Class-C drug from Operation Ark arrest. Conviction overturned but Crown abandons second trial
  7. 2014: Arrested importing 5kg of MDMA, a Class-B controlled drug, used in Ecstasy.
  8. 2016: Convicted of importing MDMA and jailed for five years and nine months

It is bad enough that he has been granted permanent residency, but even worse the Minister won’t explain why.

#10. Monday Quiz. 29 Oct. 2018

11 Jews killed in Pittsburgh synagogue

The Washington Post reports:

A gunman killed 11 people at a Pittsburgh synagogue during Saturday-morning services in what the Anti-Defamation League called “likely the deadliest attack on the Jewish community in the history of the United States.”

Law enforcement officials said Robert Bowers — a 46-year-old man with a history of making virulently anti-Semitic statements online — was taken into custody after a gun battle with police and is expected to face federal hate crime charges.

“Justice in this case will be swift and it will be severe,” said Scott W. Brady, the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Pennsylvania. Brady said Bowers could be charged sometime Saturday for what he called a “terrible and unspeakable act of hate.”

Authorities described a rampage at the Tree of Life synagogue, the city’s oldest Jewish congregation, that was stunning in its savagery.

“This is the most horrific crime scene I’ve seen in 22 years with the Federal Bureau of Investigation,” said Robert Allan Jones, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office. “Members of the Tree of Life synagogue conducting a peaceful service in their place of worship were brutally murdered by a gunman targeting them simply because of their faith.”

It is a terrible thing to imagine. Once again Jews are being slaughtered due to ant-semitism.

The account that appeared to belong to Bowers was rife with bigoted messaging. His biography on the site read “jews are the children of satan” and his background photo was a radar gun reading “1488,” a popular white supremacist symbol.

So sad such people exist.

Labour grants residency to recidivist criminal!!

Stuff reports:

A convicted drug smuggler has been handed an unprecedented get-out-of-jail card: instead of being deported after serving his prison sentence, the Government has granted him New Zealand residency.

Minister of Immigration Ian Lees-Galloway has made a special decision to grant the 37-year-old Czech national residency, even though he came to New Zealand on a false passport and is now serving time in Auckland South prison for importing drugs with a street value of $375,000.

So he came here on a false passport, is in prison for his criminal offending and good old Labour says hey let’s make him a permanent resident because we need more criminals in NZ.

Karel Sroubek​ fled to New Zealand with a friend’s passport in 2003. He claimed he was on the run from corrupt cops after witnessing a murder. Under the name Jan Antolik he built a new life as a businessman, a representative-level kickboxer, and a Hells Angels associate.

When the law caught up with him, he admitted his criminal ties in the Czech Republic – but he seemed unable to escape old habits with several brushes with NZ Police over the past 15 years.

Sroubek has faced several charges, relating to drugs and robbery. But was either acquitted or had his convictions overturned – until he was found guilty of using his drink importation business as a front to smuggle 5kg of MDMA, which is used to make the drug Ecstasy. He was jailed for five years and nine months.

He was refused parole last month: Parole Board panel convenor Judge Phil Gittos said he gave “evasive, long-winded and … in many respects manifestly untruthful” responses.

So the Parole Board says this guy is a liar, but Lees-Galloway says he’s an upstanding chap we should give residency to.

Arrest in US bombing case

The Washington Post reports:

A lone fingerprint and a set of misspellings helped point FBI agents to a Florida man with a long criminal record now charged with mailing homemade bombs to prominent critics of President Trump — a politically charged case that has roiled the run-up to next month’s congressional elections.

Cesar Sayoc, 56, a former pizza deliveryman, strip-club worker and virulently partisan supporter of the president, was arrested Friday and charged with a string of crimes in connection with the homemade pipe bombs sent this week to former president Barack Obama, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and others.

What he tried to do was terrible. He should be sent to prison for a very very long time. It’s fortunate that no one was actually killed. It would have been very easy for not just one of his targets to be killed, but postal staff, or family members etc.

It is a good reminder that no good comes from one side of politics trying to portray the other side as evil. Civility is a good thing, and we are fortunate we have that in NZ.

Now an offence in Europe to tell the truth about Mohammed

The Daily Mail report:

The European Court of Human Rights has ruled a woman convicted by an Austrian court of calling the Prophet Mohammed a paedophile did not have her freedom of speech rights infringed. 

The woman, named only as Mrs. S, 47, from Vienna, was said to have held two seminars in which she discussed the marriage between the Prophet Mohammad and a six-year old girl, Aisha.

According to scripture the marriage was consumated when Aisha was just nine years old, leading Mrs S. to say to her class Mohammad ‘liked to do it with children’.

She also reportedly said ‘… A 56-year-old and a six-year-old? … What do we call it, if it is not paedophilia?’

So she wasn’t chanting this outside a mosque. She was giving a lecture. And what happened?

Mrs S. was later convicted in February 2011 by the Vienna Regional Criminal Court for disparaging religious doctrines and ordered her to pay a fine of 480 euros plus legal fees.

Has anyone ever been convicted under these laws for saying something insensitive about Jesus Christ? Bet you no.

After having her case thrown out by both the Vienna Court of Appeal and Austria’s Supreme Court, the European Court of Human rights backed the courts’ decision to convict Mrs S. on Thursday.

The ECHR found there had been no violation of Article 10 (freedom of expression) of the European Convention on Human Rights.

In a statement on Thursday the ECHR said: ‘The Court found in particular that the domestic courts comprehensively assessed the wider context of the applicant’s statements and carefully balanced her right to freedom of expression with the right of others to have their religious feelings protected, and served the legitimate aim of preserving religious peace in Austria.’

So the ECHR says the right not to have hurt feelings about your religion outweighs your right to speak truthfully about a religious figure.

If you want to know what a majority in the UK voted for Brexit, it is stuff like this.

Luckily in the US such a law as Austria has would be unconstitutional.