King Canute Trump

Mediate report:

President Donald Trump’s governance has always leaned more on narrative than fact. But his decision to fire Dr. Erika McEntarfer—the career economist leading the Bureau of Labor Statistics—after the release of a disappointing July jobs report is something altogether different.

It’s a direct attack on the very idea of nonpartisan government data. And it carries dangerous echoes of despotic regimes that punished truth-tellers for speaking plainly.

In a Friday post on Truth Social, Trump accused McEntarfer, a Biden-era appointee, of “faking the job numbers,” and said he had “terminated her effective immediately.” During a brief gaggle with reporters that evening, Trump offered no evidence to support his claim, dodging follow-ups and instead conjuring vague allusions to what his base will clearly read as deep state manipulation.

Trump may have some great policies, but this is a good reminder of how psychologically flawed he is. He gets job numbers he doesn’t like, so he sacks the messenger. If the facts interfere with his opinion, he tries to change the facts.

One of the most basic functions of government is that you should be able to trust their data. With China, you have to take government data with suspicion, as the autocratic government will punish people for bad news. If the US goes down this path, it will mean that businesses, banks, markets etc will all be less certain about the state of the US economy, which will in turn weaken the economy. It is an own goal.

No, viewing a LinkedIn profile isn’t intimidation

The Herald reports:

Multiple female lawyers claim that a former senior partner who was suspended for drunkenly groping interns at a Christmas party has been using a social media platform to intimidate them.

What did he do? Did he send them threatening messages? Did he dox them? What was this intimidatory behaviour?

However, following those submissions, multiple women have complained that Gardner-Hopkins has found their profiles on the social media networking site LinkedIn, and has been repeatedly accessing them to “intimidate” them.

He viewed their LinkedIn profiles! I’m sorry, but that is not intimidation.

“There is an option to view LinkedIn profiles anonymously, yet he has chosen not to use it.

Actually it is only an option if you are paying for the premium product.

Just as saying something someone disagrees with, is not making them unsafe – viewing someone’s public LinkedIn profile is not intimidation.

NYT fake news

The NY Post reports:

The New York Times appended a story it published last week containing a shocking image of a childpurportedly suffering from starvation in Gaza with an editor’s note Tuesday. 

The note informs readers that Mohammed Zakaria al Mutawaq — the Gazan boy “diagnosed with severe malnutrition” and pictured in the article — also suffers from “pre-existing health problems.” 

The Times note did not elaborate on the pre-existing health problems from which Mohammed suffers. However, pro-Israel journalist David Collier reported last week that the young boy has “cerebral palsy, hypoxemia, and was born with a serious genetic disorder,” citing a May 2025 medical report from Gaza.

That image has gone around the world as an example of starvation, but actually it was an example of rare health conditions. That is not to say there are not food shortages in Gaza, but the example they used was very misleading.

General Debate 12 August 2025

The return of consequences

Stuff reports:

The number of Kāinga Ora tenancies ended due to disruptive behaviour has rocketed up by more than 500% in a year after the organisation started taking a harder line.

In the year ended June 30, there were 74 tenancies ended due to disruptive behaviour.

In the previous year there were just 12 and in the year before that (2022-23) there were two.

So evictions due to behaviour has gone from 2 to 74. As I reported on here often, the behaviour that was previously tolerated was also psychopathic. Neighbours had to endure months or years of terror. Now if you terrorise your neighbours, you are goneburger.

Other changes made by Kāinga Ora, including a reduction of its workforce from 3398 to 2609 had resulted in significant savings, Crockett said.

They’re doing a far better job, and with fewer staff!

The $5,000 per metre fence

The Wellington Ratepayers Alliance released:

The Wellington Ratepayers’ Alliance is calling on the Wellington City Council to put a hold on rushing through the $30 million harbour fencing project, and take the plans to consultation before ratepayers’ money is spent.

Wellington Ratepayers’ Alliance Spokesman James Ross said:

“$5,000 per metre of fence is ludicrous, but running up a bill like that without even asking the people picking up the bill is scandalous.”

It will cost ratepayers $375 per household to fence off the ocean!!

UPDATE: In a rare bout of sanity, the Council has voted no, for now.

Are young men and women voting differently in NZ?

It is dangerous to divide a normal poll of 1,000 up by both gender and age, nested. That is because you have around 150 people in each gender and age group which has a large margin of error.

What I have done is go through six months of the monthly Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, as the breakdowns of a 6,000 sample will be around 1,000 each and only have a 3% margin of error. I did this to answer the question of whether young voters are all heavily left leaning, or are young men right leaning like in the United States?

The full analysis is at Patreon (paywalled).

The differences between different gender and age demographics is massive. The most left leaning demographic is CL+31% and the most right leaning is CR+41%.

General Debate 11 August 2025

Starmer sets bad incentives

The Guardian reports:

A British-Israeli woman who was held hostage by Hamas for more than 15 months has accused Keir Starmer of “moral failure” after he set the UK on course to recognise a Palestinian state.

Emily Damari, 29, who was released in January, said the prime minister was “not standing on the right side of history” and should be ashamed.

Her criticism came as lawyers representing British families of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas said the UK government’s intention to recognise a Palestinian state ran the risk of disincentivising the release of captives.

Starmer said on Tuesday that the UK would recognise a Palestinian state in September unless the Israeli government abided by a ceasefire and committed to a two-state solution to the conflict.

A ceasefire needs both sides to agree. One of the issues around a ceasefire is Israel wants the return of the remaining hostages.

Starmer has effectively said that if Hamas refuses to release any more hostages, resulting in no ceasefire with Israel, then the UK will recognise Palestine as an independent state. This does not seem to me like a good incentive!

As I blogged in June, I no longer support the ongoing military action in Gaza. I fully supported Israel’s actions in the first year to 18 months as justified by self defence. But there is no mandate for an endless war. As I said, I would do a Korea style DMZ around Gaza.

Tobacco black market in Australia now at $10b

ABC News reports:

Illicit, excise-evading cigarettes now comprise half of the cancer-inducing products sold to Australia’s 2.7 million smokers.

A study published by FTI Consulting put it at 39.4 per cent in 2024, up from 14 per cent six years ago, but an update for the month of June puts the figure at 50 per cent.

And, according to studies of wastewater, nicotine consumption in Australia, including vaping, is at an all-time high.

We can now conclude that the strategy of taxing and banning nicotine addiction out of existence is a complete failure.

The result is that organised crime is making about $10 billion a year in revenue.

This is what the previous Government had in store for NZ. Prohibition is a fat strategy, which fails, and just makes criminals wealthier.

Will Radio NZ report on this, alongside their scores of articles decrying the Government for not implementing the previous government’s prohibition strategy?

The black market in Australia has grown from 14% to 54%. So they used to have 86% of the tobacco market taxed and regulated, and now only 50% of the tobacco market is taxed or regulated.

Thank goodness we can’t do US gerrymanders

Politico reports:

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map on Wednesday that would provide their party with five new red-leaning districts, a plan that — if enacted — could provide a boost to the party as it tries to cling to control of the House. 

The redraw would significantly benefit Republicans by making districts held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, who both represent heavily-Latino areas of the Rio Grande Valley, redder, and make some Democratic-controlled districts even bluer in an attempt to create GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

The GOP basically told their computer program to design the best possible boundaries for them, and have passed them into law. Gerrymandering has occurred for a long time, but normally happens when they have to redraw boundaries after a census. This one has occurred just because they can.

We are fortunate this can’t happen in NZ. The law states boundaries get redrawn only after each census, and the Representation Commission is chaired by a judge and has a majority on it of neutral public servants. Having MPs decide their own boundaries is a very bad idea.

General Debate 10 August 2025

Kicked off a flight for being Jewish

A group of Jewish school kids were forced off a plane in Spain after they sang in Hebrew. Snopes looks into this story, and they find that there is no evidence to back up the airline’s assertion they were unruly.

In fact several passengers on the flight with no connection to the group did affidavits saying the teens were well behaved and respectful. Utterly disgraceful behaviour from the airline.

Grifter gets sued

The Herald reports:

Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron are suing former Maga influencer Candace Owens after she falsely claimed France’s first lady was born a man.

The French President and his wife are willing to travel to the United States for the case, should it go ahead, to end what their lawyer described as a “relentless and unjustified smear campaign”.

The 218-page lawsuit, filed in Delaware yesterday, accuses Owens of publishing “outlandish, defamatory and far-fetched fictions”, chief among them the claim that Brigitte Macron was born a man named Jean-Michel Trogneux.

Owens makes money out of saying outlandish false things. There is literally zero evidence of her claims. Evidence is not a theory. I doubt she even believes it herself. It is just a way to get clicks and listeners.

I suspect the damages in the case, once concluded, will be huge.

A new left UK party

The Guardian reports:

Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have reached agreement over the launch of a new leftwing party after weeks of discussions, sending out a joint statement encouraging would-be supporters to register their interest.

The new movement has yet to be named but has an interim website under the moniker of Your party. In a statement on X, the two former Labour MPs appealed described it as “a new kind of political party, one that belongs to you”.

This party could do quite well. The UK has a sizeable minority of hard left socialists who would vote for a neo-marxist party.

General Debate 09 August 2025

Impact of the new boundaries

Labour hypocrisy exposed

When Erica Stanford announced the scrapping of NCEA, Labour said that there hasn’t been proper consultation, and it was all too hasty.

Today we find out that Labour’s supposed Education Spokesperson, Willow-Jean Prime, turned down multiple offers to be briefed on the NCEA change programme. Chris Hipkins was complaining that the opposition wasn’t consulted, and in fact his own spokesperson turned it down!

The details are:

  • In March the Minister texted Prime after she became Education Spokesperson to congratulate her, and asked to meet her to brief her on the NCEA change process, noting she had been working with her predecessor, Jan Tinetti, on it. Prime didn’t even reply!
  • In May Stanford’s office e-mailed Prime’s officer following up one the text, and repeating the offer to meet and be briefed. Again no answer.
  • In June Stanford personally e-mailed Prime asking for a meeting. Again no reply for a third time.
  • Later in June, Stanford e-mails Hipkins seeking cross-party support, and noting that Prime’s office had not responded multiple times. The next day Prime’s office finally responds, and declines an invitation to be briefed.
  • Only a few days before the announcement did Prime change her mind and say she wanted to be consulted, but of course decision were all made by then.

I don’t know if Prime’s actions were a result of incompetence or arrogance or simply not caring. But Seymour is right, that it is basically a sackable offence. She turned down multiple opportunities to be briefed and have input into the reform process. And on top of that, it is just damn rude – to not even reply to a personal text from the Minister.

General Debate 08 August 2025

The Press found to have breached Media Council rules with its school lunches article

The Media Council has upheld a complaint by David Seymour’s office against this article on school lunches. It was found to have breached both the fairness and conflict of interest principles.

The first issue was that they ran the article, and didn’t even ask the Minister for comment. They only quoted opponents of the new school lunch programme.

Simon Clarke, David Seymour’s Director of Communications, complained the article breached Principle (1) Accuracy, Fairness and Balance because no effort was made to contact the Minister’s office for comment during the formation of the story, despite the article containing direct criticism of him. He said because the article was already printed and had been online for at least 12 hours before any attempt was made to include comment, the opportunity for balance was rendered moot. He said the reporter instead sought comment only from known detractors of the programme and failed to approach other relevant stakeholders, such as the School Lunch Collective.

The Press said this was a mistake – they just forgot to ask the Minister to comment!. The Media Council ruled their failure a breach.

The second issue is more interesting.

Mr Clarke complained the article also contained a significant undeclared conflict of interest relating to the reporter’s previous role. He said the journalist assigned to the story served as Director of Communications for Health Coalition Aotearoa (HCA), confirmed in correspondence with The Press’ editor. Mr Clarke said HCA has been an outspoken critic of the school lunch programme and the reporter had overseen communications campaigns against it.

So the journalist who wrote the “neutral” story on the school lunch programme had just a few weeks earlier been the effective campaign manager for a lobby group campaigning against it. She interviewed her former employer for the story, but not the Minister.

This was also, not surprisingly, found to be a breach.

Now some might say, that her previous role was just a job, and didn’t reflect her actual views. But if you look at her Twitter account, she has tweeted multiple times against the school lunch programme.

That’s just a couple. There have been multiple tweets on this issue, and also a huge number on other issues – in every case attacking the Government.

Bryce Edwards likes to talk about the revolving door between Government and lobbyists. Maybe he should also focus on the revolving door between lobbyists and the media. Here you have someone who is campaigning stridently against the Government on an issue, and they get employed as a journalist to them neutrally report on the same issue.

You now have the HCA promoting stories written by their former communications manager. And there are plenty of them. A look at her page at The Press, lists seven stories in just the last three months on school lunches. And the one thing they all have in common, is that they are all negative on the programme.

Erica Stanford’s solutions to the problems posed by her inner circle have positive aspects …

But they are not the highest priority problems.

I have a son who is a professional fire-fighter. I would imagine that they most basic advice they receive is to point the hose at the fire.

Stanford has done almost nothing on what all data and research show to be the most important aspects for the education of our children and young people. There is barely any water going on the flames.

These are the absolute key areas for the contribution of education towards our future.

  1. How to support parenting so that the vast majority of 5 year olds arrive at school ready to fully engage and with the basics of a love of learning, good behaviours, as well as numeracy and literacy in place. This includes parents reading to their children and being fully informed of key aspects of development from conception until 5 years old (at least).
  2. Massively improving school attendance. She has allocated just 0.7 of 1% of VOTE education to improving this aspect – that remains in deep crises.
  3. How to significantly close the gaps between those who achieve – and those who don’t (concentrated among poorer families, Maori and Pasifika). 2024 school leavers data shows that the proportion of school leavers with no qualifications has risen to 16% for all ethnicities. This is the worst in a decade and it well-and-truly under her watch. It is now 28% for Maori youth. Appalling – but I do not see a single ounce of effort from Stanford on this. Let this statistic land … 28% of Maori youth are leaving school with no qualification. Will the proposed qualifications changes improve this? What are the future consequences?
  4. Improving the quality of outcomes of every high school. There is actually some low hanging fruit here with an easy to implement programme. NZ only has 460 high schools. To have every one of them create a 5 year improvement plan for outcomes – aims and how to achieve them – is easy and can be highly effective. I have already been working with some schools on this in a private capacity.
  5. Improving the quality of teachers. While there has been some emphasis on this – the impact of poorly consulted curriculum changes, and barely consulted qualifications changes, will have massive work conditions implications for teachers (i.e. chaos). While teachers remain in a collective contract that restricts the ability to reward high contributors – the prospect for true change remains low.
  6. The huge hand-brake of a massive and inept Ministry of Education has barely been challenged by Stanford. National/ACT promised to reduce the employment numbers in the Ministry to 2,700 (pre-Hipkins) but it remains near 4,000. Even one of Stanford’s best friends, Tim O’Connor of Auckland Grammar – recently stated that the Ministry serves little purpose and should be disestablished. Stanford has not even been able to appoint a new Secretary for Education – nearly a year after the previous one left.

As someone who fully evaluates the outcomes of our education system each year … the current changes will do nothing to halt the decline – except that students from high performing schools, and privileged demographics, will have a better qualification to get themselves into international study.

Alwyn Poole
[email protected]
alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Sadly he will end up killing a woman probably

The Herald reports:

After turning up at his former partner’s house unwanted, and repeatedly being asked to leave, Chad Lionel Erueti eventually drove off in his car.

He got to the end of the road, turned around and drove into his former partner, pinning her against a retaining wall.

It left the woman fearing she was going to die, and living in fear. …

But Judge Tini Clark was struggling to see how she could get to the home detention threshold of 24 months, given Erueti had been jailed in 2021 for “almost identical” offending. …

Over the past 10 years, Erueti had been arrested in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024.

“And here we are today … this is the worst offending so far.” …

In jailing him for 28 and a half months, Judge Clark told him he hoped it would be a wake-up call.

The Judge made the right call in ruling out home detention. But 28 months is still not much for what is clearly a recidivist offender who is likely to end up killing a woman eventually.

Southpark’s Trump episode

The Guardian reports:

South Park co-creator Trey Parker had the briefest of responses on Thursday to anger from the White House over the latest season premiere, which showed a naked Donald Trump in bed with Satan.

“We’re terribly sorry,” Parker said, followed by a long, deadpan-comic stare. …

I love Southpark. They skewer everyone. I never actually watched the TV series until they did a film and I read a news story about how Rev Graham Capill had condemned it because it showed a sex scene between Saddam Hussein and Satan. I knew I had to see that film (which was hilarious) and been a fan sense.

Their treatment of Trump is no harder than their treatment of Paris Hilton. They had Obama paying Chinese agents and Cartman to steal an election.

I’m surprised the White House thought it was a good idea to attack the show. They should laugh it off, and be flattered they got an episode!

Grading the UK Leaders

This poll summary from Lord Ashcroft is fascinating. Nigel Farage overall is seen as performing much better than the PM and Opposition Leader.

Even more interesting is of those who voted for Labour in 2024, they give Farage a B- and their own leader Starmer a C+ only.

Likewise Conservative voters give Farage a B and Badenoch a C-.

He also polled on the target of doubling defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. 52% backed it (or faster). A further 14% supported a smaller increase and just 14% said defence spending should remain the same or reduce.

General Debate 07 August 2025