SST Poll
May 29th, 2005 at 10:21 am by David FarrarThe SST has a poll out today, and like the NZ Herald it shows a narrowing of the gap – to only 4%. Individual poll results do not always mean a lot, but trends are all important and this confirms a helpful trend.
The results are:
Labour 40% (-3)
National 36% (+1)
NZ First 10% (+3)
ACT 3% (-1)
Green 6% (+0)
United 2% (+0)
Maori 1% (-1)
Progressive 1% (+1)
If one assumes Maori Party win five seats, and Dunne, Anderton and Peters hold their seats then seat allocation would be:
Labour 50 (+0)
National 45 (+18)
NZ First 13 (+0)
Green 7 (-2)
Maori 5 (+4)
United 3 (-5)
Progressive 1 (-1)
ACT 0 (-9)
Total 124 (+4)
A Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive Government (the horror the horror) would have 63/124 seats – the smallest possible majority.
More likely would be a straight Labour/NZF Government on 63 seats.
A National/United/NZF combination would have 61 seats – just short.
It’s looking to get interesting!
No tag for this post.
May 29th, 2005 at 10:51 am
Presumably this time round National will be campaigning on the basis they could form a Government and let the voters decide which combination they prefer. Any combination that includes the Maori party/greens for Labour will be damaging for them and will see their vote decline further. The squeeze is on Labour. That is the big change plus the deal that ALL MPs campaign for the party vote, being offered I assume a top 30 slot.
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 11:42 am
My rolling poll (TVNZ/TV3/NBR/SST/Herald) has it as:
Vote:Labour 57 seats / 42.7%
National 47 / 35.4%
NZ First 11 / 8.6%
United 3 / 1.9% (Dunne holds seat)
Maori 2 / 1.7% (Turia holds seat)
Progressive 1 Overhang / 0.3% (Anderton holds seat)
Greens 0 / 4.8%
ACT 0 / 2.6%
May 29th, 2005 at 2:12 pm
” A Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive Government (the horror the horror) would have 63/124 seats – the smallest possible majority.”
Oh man!!
that would be a freakshow to end them all. You could scalp tickets for question-time.
I would give it 3 months.
Gman
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 6:14 pm
g-man..” A Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive Government (the horror the horror) would have 63/124 seats – the smallest possible majority.”
Oh man!!
that would be a freakshow to end them all. You could scalp tickets for question-time.
I would give it 3 months…”
why?..that’s a combination i could see working..putting ancient antipathies to one side wouldn’t be a problem for them..
and you reckon the thought of a peters/brash combo in charge isn’t fucking scary to most punters..?
you must be joking..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 7:01 pm
Helen will do a deal with Peters. If Labour aren’t in power then Helen gets rolled – this is her last election. She will do anything to extend her grip on power. One party to negotiate with is easier than 3.
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 7:50 pm
Brash/Peters?
I reserve the right to not answer purely hypothetical questions. it isn’t going to happen.
BTW Phill, I don’t know if you realise that I’m not a spokesman for Winston.
G
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 7:57 pm
A Clark/Peters Government would be an interesting thing to watch. However I suspect that Winston Peters will be the last person whom Clark or Brash would like to be on the cell phone to on election night.
Vote:The thought of a Labour/Green/Maori Government makes one shudder.
I think if the Public were to see that as realistic possibilty then National will gain lots of votes.
May 30th, 2005 at 7:10 am
g man..tell us why you are so certain a brash/peters deal wouldn’t be done..?
history and ideology would appear to contradict your vigorous contention…
i wouldn’t totally rule it out but i would be inclined to think labour would be less inclined to go with peters than national would..
please elucidate…
also i don’t quite see what matt is on about..the greens have worked with labour for two terms and turia is from labour…them all working together makes perfect sense, once again on those historical and ideological grounds..
that mix is actually my 2nd coalition preference..
and we can surmise and hypothesise all day long..the voters will decide the final mix..
btw g..i never thought you were a spokesperson for the pretender..that would be a very harsh accusation to level at anyone without strong supporting evidence..preferably including photos..:)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 30th, 2005 at 10:08 am
What do the figures look like if Rodney Hide wins Epsom? My suspicion is that the Gnats would rather coalesce with Tariana and Pita than they would with WP on the grounds that the Maori Party actually has more brains and makes more sense than NZ First. I still say Act/NAtional/MP is a strong possibility. Farless scary than Dominatrix/Ginetix/Dunny/Winston
Vote:May 30th, 2005 at 12:04 pm
Adolf – If ACT got a constituency, using my rolling poll figures it should get about 4 seats, most likely with 2 coming from Labour and 2 coming from National, or maybe 1 Nat/1 NZF depending on the Sainte-Lague quotients.
Vote:May 30th, 2005 at 1:31 pm
gareth..”If ACT got a constituency,..”
if only pigs would/could fly, everything would be ok..
a tad shakey that hypothesis, eh?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 30th, 2005 at 4:56 pm
Given all these bastards will sell their soles to the devil for power nothing is going to surprise me come election night We must never forget that government is the enemy of the people
Vote:May 31st, 2005 at 1:23 pm
gd..”..Given all these bastards will sell their soles to the devil for power…”
why would they sell their shoes..?..and why would the devil want them?..?
(an easy shot i know, but i couldn’t resist)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:June 2nd, 2005 at 2:58 pm
What qualifies me?
oh gee I don’t know
Maybe it may have some something to do with employment history–hmmmm
I think I’m more qualified to know than most people to know what Winston may do.
Gman
Vote:June 2nd, 2005 at 4:28 pm
oo-er g man, you’re outing yourself as michael laws are you..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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