Applying the electoral calculator, and assuming party leaders keep their seats, and that the Maori Party win 5 electorate seats, the poll result and Parliament would be:
National 38% 48 seats
Labour 37% 46 seats
NZ First 12% 15 seats
Green 5% 6 seats
Maori 2% 5 seats
United Future 1.9% 2 seats
Progressive 0% 1 seats
Total 123 seats
National and United Future have 50 seats. Labour/Progressive/Maori/Green have 60 seats. You need 62 for a majority so NZ First gets to pick.
National/NZ First would be 63 seats by itself. On the left Labour/NZF would be 61 seats so would need Progressive, Green or Maori support.
In terms of National, if that was the election result then everyone on the list down to Ravi Clarkson Musuku at 48 would be an MP.