A reader writes:
The latest one news poll came out tonight and projects a 122 seat parliament.
My understanding is that this is based on the act party, United future and Maori all getting more seats than their party vote says they should get.
Would you be able to do some commentary on your blog about what affect it would have on the make up of seats of nats won Epsom and ohairu, and labour won all the Maori seats.
I would have thought it would mean a Nat majority government?
Would be interested to see if by having those three minor parties out if it would make all the difference.
Would national consider knocking them out for ts own benefit?
Generally speaking if a party wins an electorate seat and gets under 0.4% party vote then it is an over-hang seat and helps their side of politics. If they get over 0.4% then it depends on the actual result as to whom they take the seat “off”.
Here’s what the Colmar Brunton result would be like with no seats won by ACT, UFNZ or Maori Party.
- National 58 to 59
- Labour 35 to 35
- Green 15 to 15
- NZF 11 to 11
- Maori 1 to 0
- ACT 1 to 0
- UF 1 to 0
On the original result Nat/ACT/UF/Maori had 61 seats out of 122 – one short of a majority. If National and Labour won seats off the small parties then National would have 59 seats out of 120 – two short of a majority.