Will Helen go early?
I said on TV3 this morning, that there is a reasonable chance (not a probability, but a significant possibility) that Helen Clark may call an early election.
Why?
Just one reason, really.
The thought of Owen Glenn testifying to the Privileges Committee. This is the stuff of nightmares for Helen and her Foreign Minister.
If she goes early, she kils off the inquiry for Winston, and secures his loyalty post-election if he gets back (and she needs him to do so to have a chance).
And even better, the inquiry can not be re-established in a new Parliament.
So Helen will be reading the results of the UMR poll on how she has handled Winston very carefully. And if she is worried about what Owen Glenn may say, she will do anything to stop that happening.
What if Owen is asked by a Maori Party MP whether he was behind the $250,000 offered donation to the Maori Party, if they would agree to back Labour? If you are Helen, do you want to run the risk of that?
What if Owen won’t back up Winston’s claims to have known nothing at all about his donation? How do you look if as PM you didn’t even take the simple step of verifying this yourself?
So if Helen does call a snap or early election, it will not be due to any of the public reasons she will trot out. They will be as ludicrous as her justification for the 2002 snap election – she claimed an extra 12 minutes a day of points or order (about the status of the Alliance) had paralyzed Parliament and made governign impossible.
The reason will be the possible testimony of Owen G Glenn – Labour’s largest donor.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:42 am
that could make sense..
(esp. the securing peers’ support part..)
especially if the ’secret agenda’ revelations have the expected ‘poll-knee-cap’ result for national..
..while all tthose revelations/reminders are ‘fresh’..and all that..
eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
August 7th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Is Owen Glenn a Labour supporter at all, or was he only ever just taking advantage of any administration that was corrupt enough to grant him favours for cash? If the former, surely he would do all he could to minimise the damage. And if the latter, he must have no shame at all if he testifies in such a way as to both damage Labour, and show himself up for what he is……..
August 7th, 2008 at 9:56 am
PhilBest, Glenn most probably supports Glenn. He has little reason to be interested in the day-to-day governance of NZ. My pick is that he’d testify.
That could completely destroy the Labour Party and leave the centre right with a decade of government while the left re-discovers it’s heart and re-calibrates its ethical compass.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:58 am
In the House over the last couple of days Helen keeps trying to make out that National are now scared of the election and hope that it is as far away as possible. Gerry calls her bluff and calls a point of order asking that the house be dissmissed and rise for an election. Labour decline.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:59 am
2002 was a snap election? i was out of the country.. what was the real reason???
August 7th, 2008 at 10:00 am
This might be a rare case of the PM acting in the best interests of the Labour party also being in the best interest of NZ. That is as long as Winston isn’t back in parliament with a get out of jail free card like Labour were after 2005 retrospectigve validations.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:01 am
dime
Scandals needed to be averted. Usual stuff – the best interests of the political parties always come before the interests of accountability and the voters.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I think you are on the mark David
Haven’t Labour also abruptly finished making any board appointments, something they can not do within 3 months of an election.
Someone postulated the other day, that this may mean an October election.
What a worry for the PM, hold onto absolute power for an extra three weeks or go early and risk losing it all for the sake of closing down any damaging leaks.
And why does the PM have the right to choose the election date, this is the first thing I would change
The date of the election should be predetermined by Parliamentary services, not someone who stands to gain from setting a certain date.
It’s like the All Blacks choosing to always play at Eden Park when they play Australia.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:11 am
All we need to now is get her drunk and shove a mic in her face.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Good boy FillMe
That first posting wasn’t bad at all, a few extra punctuation marks, and an Eh? that wasn’t needed, but on the whole a B I think! I told you the medication worked didn’t I. Now. Remember to take them on time today, OK!
August 7th, 2008 at 10:20 am
This could be why she hasn’t named the date – it allows her to go earlier if she feels the need to do so. The election is dateless because she’s desperate.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:22 am
You know you live in a banana replubic when the govt de-jour can call an election to avert political damage. What would be so wrong with openness and accountability – Oh I know – It’s not in Helen’s best interests… Better for the country to look corrupt and for the govt to appear corrupt than for it to be proven.
Winston has a lot to answer for – but Helen will make sure he has no need to do that. Bananas anyone?
August 7th, 2008 at 10:23 am
homepaddock
Brilliant. A dateless and desperate election … Love it.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Oooo theres a title for a post homepaddock. Helen – Desperate and Dateless.
It writes itself.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Dammit Burt don’t post at the same time as me!
August 7th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Maybe she thinks the country needs her so much that she won’t call an election at all. I mean, isn’t anything better than a National Government? Ask Chris Trotter.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
GOOD IDEA!!!!
Oh wait, you said “ask”, thought you said “shoot”.
My bad.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Dont be silly about getting Glenn to testify.
hes rarely in the country, and parliaments writ doesnt extend beyond the border.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:42 am
october works.. no all blacks games that month
August 7th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Poll-Knee-Cap.
Er don’t think so. That amateur set of recordings, taken under false pretences, will have the opposite effect!
The Game is up!
I’m sure that most folks are sick of being manipulated, and instructed on what to do.
The Economy being in Recession, the housing market being in freefall, and everyone feeling poorer will be enough
to do the job.
Rather than a personal comment that maybe National might sell ACC or Kiwibank sometime. Possibly?
August 7th, 2008 at 10:45 am
philu said “especially if the ’secret agenda’ revelations have the expected ‘poll-knee-cap’ result for national..
..while all tthose revelations/reminders are ‘fresh’..and all that..”
phil – with each passing day, it is looking as though the only party who will be getting kneecapped is the Labour Party – whether that is deserved or not remains to be seen, but it is certainly an “unintended consequence”!!
August 7th, 2008 at 10:57 am
dime, I think 2002 was something to do with National polling in the low 20s…and thats what they got! http://2002.electionresults.org.nz/
August 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
How’s everyone placed? Any week-end works for me, I can slot it in
August 7th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Any time now is good, I’ve got “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead” downloaded for my election night party.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Try making a booking at the Dominion Rd RSA Hall (Hel’s traditional election night party pad) Saturday by Saturday!
August 7th, 2008 at 11:17 am
David
IS the RSA a good place for a wake?
August 7th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I have a wedding on the 8th of November so I would be most grateful if Helen could leave that weekend clear!
August 7th, 2008 at 11:24 am
“..phil – with each passing day, it is looking as though the only party who will be getting kneecapped is the Labour Party – whether that is deserved or not remains to be seen, but it is certainly an “unintended consequence”!!”
ah well..!..
..the polling from this recent period will prove one of us right..
..eh..?
..(psstt!!..my money’s on me..!..)
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
August 7th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Hilarious !!!!!
I completely agree DPF the risks of damage and the association with the Winston First albatross is definitely unbearable from a worn and cranky old woman who has clearly lost some of her trademark astuteness.
Her options have all but run out and her cancerous and corrosive claims have come back to haunt her.
Phil Goff is very chuffed that finally his aspirations as Labour Party leader look a lot more promising now that the defeat is inevitable and like Mugabe and other tryrants when finally routed they cannot live under the personal reflection, so will immediately resign and go offshore.
United Nations apparently will be receiving her CV shortly.
This will hopefully mean that the SFO bill remains in limbo and can be revisited or rejected next term.
As for the spammer “philu up with propaganda”
Just as well your own moneys on you because your normal approach is to spend someone elses money !!!
August 7th, 2008 at 11:26 am
IMHO Glen would testify all right and love every minutes of it Luigi promised him the Monaco gig and then got turned down by Crazy when she found out that Glen was involved in ciggie freighting and also the freighting of other (cough) interesting cargoes usually refered to on the mainfest and ‘ machinery parts”
So Luigi had to tell Glen the bad news and Glen doesnt like to be messed with. He was counting on the Monaco gig to get entree into more business opportuntites.
Crazy and Luigi both know that his testimony would be a neutron bomb and expose the corruptness.
Glen would reveal how he paid for his gong with a 2% contribution of the total costs of the Business School plus a promise from Luigi of the Monaco gig.
Hie would name names and dates and how Mikey W asked him to prop up Liugis finances in return for NZ1 support.
The peasants would revolt at the evidence that Dearly Beloved was no more than a 2 bit scam artist.
But it wont happen Crazy has yet again defeated good governance good ethics and good morals
August 7th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Well dave strings,
every 3 years, usually in the spring there is a party there with lots of red balloons , a bunch of people who look a lot like ghouls, witches and hobgoblins, a number of mental midgets and a camera team or two. There is lots of hugging and kissing going on and in the middle of the party some telephone calls get made.
I don’t expect this year will be any different except that the party might finish a bit early, lemons will be passed out to suck on and there will be lots of beer left over which is probably OK by the party goers for whom waste is not an issue to be concerned about seeing as how we (the taxpayers) will probably have paid for it anyway.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:33 am
But it is not going early, she has now passed the Appropriation Bill so why is she waiting.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
An early election might also stop the smacking referendum being included on the ballot and brought again to public attention.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:51 am
I think that Our Dear Leader’s attitude may well be caused by a sense of “après moi, le déluge”. She has been working hard for a very long time and is now losing popularity and although others see reasons for it she seems to feel that it is an unfair shift in opinions based on irrelevancies. Is resentment perhaps causing a secret longing for an inept successor, so that when that successor fails to boost Labour’s ratings she can proclaim that it wasn’t her that let down Labour, it was the voters?
August 7th, 2008 at 11:52 am
What puzzles me about all of the goings on in Parliament is this, Helen Clark and all the rest of them are employees of the State, and one of their tasks is to govern in exchange for an annual consideration and for a definite term, yet they seem to spend most of their time politiking and not governing, not what they are getting paid for to do! A normal employer would fire employees that are not performing/carrying out their tasks. Who gave them the mandate to get paid and not to perform?
The G-G should do the right thing for a change and fire the lot!
August 7th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Some time ago there were media comments about Peters and Glenn meeting in France (a breakfast meeting?) during the 2007 Rugby World Cup. Does anyone know whether hard evidence exists for the privileges committee about the relevant time, date and place so that Peters and Glenn can be quizzed about what was discussed?
In my view, the privileges committee should set out a number of questions now for Glenn to answer, and ask him to provide responses in affidavit form. If he meets that request it might produce a bit of fun for Peters / Clark / Williams, but a refusal could also be revealing.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:56 am
A deal has been done here people between Winnie and dear corrupt leader, I have a feeling it went something like this…
Clark: Jesus Winston, what the fuck have you done to me, you leave me with no option but to suspend you pending an investigation by the police or more worryingly the privileges committee.
Peters: I would think long and hard Prime Minister before doing anything as rash as that
Clark: You leave me no choice Winston, we both know you are guilty as sin and I am not going to have my party again tainted with the brush of corruption this close to an election.
Peters: Well Prime Minister, if you take that course of action I will be forced to bring down the government.
Clark: You fucking what???
Peters: You heard me Helen, if you shit on me I will crap on you from the highest tree in the land.
Clark: Well what can we do then?
Peters: Its simple and if you listen to me we can both get what we want out of this.
Clark: Go on then, I am all ears.
Peters: OK, well as neither of us want Owen testifying before the privileges committee then the best way to play this would be for you to have a word to Margret, tell her that you want her to refer me to the committee and that way the subject will go on the back burner.
Clark: But you will be found guilty Winston.
Peters: let me finish please, the deal is this, you support me in public, you promise me right now that you will continue with me as foreign affairs minister after the election should you win and in return I will guarantee to support you when the house has its next vote on confidence and supply, should you not agree with this then as I said I will bring your govt down.
Clark: I see nothing to hard about that Winston but it does still not get past the fact that you will be found guilty when you have to appear at the committee.
Peters: But I will not have to appear Helen.
Clark: Winston, you have no bloody option but to appear.
Peters: Wanna bet Prime Minister?
Clark: Oh I see…….you mean you want me to call an early election thereby letting you off the hook over the donation saga?
Peters: Well PM, it would rid us of the nasty little problem of Owen testifying before the committee would it not?
Clark: Yes, I can see your point…………….so Winston, how does mid September sound for you and NZ first?
August 7th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Grant M McK Yes reminds of when I was working in a rather large sales organisation and one of my colleagues used to blame ‘Those bastards” when sales were down
Turned out he meant the customers
I can just imagine H1 and H2 telling each other how we bastards dont understand and appreciate all they have done for us over the past 9 years and that we all deserve to rot in hell for turning against them.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Hey bb,
You had better stop bugging the 9th floor toilets, the SIS will a’come a’knocking. HEH
August 7th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
“..# Fletch (163) Add karma Subtract karma +0 Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
An early election might also stop the smacking referendum being included on the ballot and brought again to public attention..”
oh look..!..a representative of the religious right..
..has (still) got ‘itchy’ hands..
‘i smack you in the name of god..!”
eh..?
feckin’ ‘barking’..
..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
August 7th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Owen Glenn + the latest unemployment figures + pimply faced stooges = seeya Helen
August 7th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I thought the evil EPMU was Labour’s largest donor…?
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
DPF has hit the nail on the head. If Winston gets wiped out, the votes he still gets (likely to still be 4% or so) effective get redistributed to the other parties in proportion to their vote. (Actually, they get ignored, but same effect). So National overwhelmingly benefit – when Winston is there the odds are he would go with Labour, so they get all that 4%. If Winston isn’t there then National will get about 2% of that “redistributed” to them. Labour cannot afford that – expect to see Helen finding some way to throw Winston a life line.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
So many evil donors, so little time.
Would all donors to Labour and Winston First please queue to the right [again!] with your cheque books at the ready. Thanks.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
This Country is being flushed down the toilet by the morally bereft, corrupt Government we have had for the last hine years.
Helen wants to retain the Treasury benches at ANY cost. We are looking at the lowest form of Gutter Politics being delivered to us in this election, and yet again, it will feature personal attacks and abuse.
I for one have had enough of it already. Call an early election, put your POLICIES to us, not your abuse, and let us decide.
This current Government reminds me of Pigs at the Trough, grabbing and fighting for everything they can get their hands on while they are still able to. What happened to Honour and Pride????????????????????
August 7th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Whilst the current complaint may not be re established in a new parliament is there anything preventing a new complaint – there seems plenty to pick from – Vela/Simunovich etc ?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
>>If Winston isn’t there then National will get about 2% of that “redistributed” to them. Labour cannot afford that – expect to see Helen finding some way to throw Winston a life line.
Which is exactly why John Key should categorically state there is no way Winnie will be a cabinet minister in his government.
2% from the redistributed vote and 2% from the boost in the polls for showing much more intregrity than Clark, and bingo there is no justification for Winston First
August 7th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Burrt Badger – Welcome!
August 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Yes Emmess,
The Nats have a chance to pick up some votes from NZ First members that secretly don’t support the way Winston has behaved recently.
John Key either has say that Winston would no longer be fit to sit around a cabinet table or else Rodney hide can take a position that says I will not form or be part of any Government formed post election with the Winston First party.
Then he can go and get a job as the NZ high Commisioner to Fiji or Kiribati- something as important as the Consulate Post in Monaco that was up for grabs.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
It’s bit ironic that our future government can be decided by the coffered poodle’s voters… the older ones who can actually remember decency and honour in our parliament, but yet are metaphorically blind to the government corruption today!
Wash out that blue rinse and repeat after me: “A vote for Winston is a vote for more political corruption”.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Owen Glenn’s interest in the Monaco post has nothing to do with his overweening pomposity and everything to do with being able to avoid the annoying residency requirement (183 days a year I think, but don’t quote me on that) which one must fulfil to attain citizenship. One must also have lived in Monaco for an unbroken period of ten years unless you are a “foreigner whom the Prince considers worthy of this favor may be exempt from the requirement of ten years’ residence” (e.g., perhaps, an Honorary Consul).
Despite it’s image as some sort of tax haven, Monaco has very strict rules governing citizenship and business activity. For instance, simply being born in Monaco doesn’t make you a citizen – it depends on a variety of other factors including your parents’ heritage. And shelf companies or holding companies are banned. Anyone running a business in Monaco must “have a premises at their disposal and are engaged in activity which the Monegasque authorities consider beneficial to the Principality’s economy. Full disclosure of a corporate plan is a prerequisite of licensing”.
I’m not entirely certain of the privileges granted to those with diplomatic status but I imagine they’re similar to those applicable to most countries – to come and go as you please with yourself, your baggage and any goods shipped in and out not subject to inspection. And, provided you can prove 75% of your revenue is earned within the Principality – not subject to taxation.
Quite why Mr Glenn would be so interested in such privileges I will leave to you to speculate. But DPF is right – it is highly unlikely that the government, and especially Winston, would want this man questioned by MZ’s highest court.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Off topic
Can anybody tell me why Judith Tizard has taken Helen Clark’s seat in the house today?, I have never seen anybody else sit in the PM’s seat when she is way from Parliament.
Why is Judith so “special”?
August 7th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I so wanted to come up with a hillarious witty aside using their lesbian relationship as the theme but just couldn’t think of anything that wasn’t inappropriately filthy.
August 7th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Joker
What on earth are you suggesting?????
August 7th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
big bruv considering the number of times over many many many years that Judith and Helens ‘relationship” has been off and on its been a matter of some amusement to deduce the ‘on’ signs and the ‘off’ signs.
I guess we may put this down to an ‘on’ sign.
August 7th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
AHHHH, Rex W., that is EXTREMELY illuminating.
Sounds like the PERFECT basis on which a socialist administration which purports to represent the downtrodden poor versus the fatcat rich, gets pinged majorly for hypocrisy……….
August 7th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
big bruv (2:32pm) – how can you be absolutely sure that Hulun is not still there, in her seat too?
August 7th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
3 coil
You are joking….have you seen the size of Tizard?
August 7th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Precisely my point bb. Lard-arse Tizard could sit on the entire AB forward pack and they would all disappear from view.
If Hulun is under there somewhere, the give-away will be Tizzie’s smug smile, the occasional quiver…a whimper now and then…
August 7th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Who cares Mr Farrar ,we have rich educated shit on the left and we have rich educated shit on the right , both lie through their teeth. WE are voting for the best liars, both parties policies are shit,nothings going to change , the unemployed crap rules now, its a growth industry , fuck if you have a job , ie IF ?????you work in the public service, you DONT work leeches.,if you are in the REAL WORK FORCE
, private industry, your jobs GOING TO CHINA vietnam, or any other fuckwit slave wage hellhole, GO LIARBOUR AND NATIONAL , sell our kids and grandchildrens souls of CHEAPLY
August 7th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Was judith sitting in HER best friends seat, does whats his name the token male(to stop small talk) know, comrade KLARKs companion
August 7th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
JSF2008. A man after my own heart!!!!!
I am awaiting the announcement of Policies, not the personal attacks and bile spat forth at each other.
REAL economic Policies and Hulun has to announce an election date so that this can occur.
HULUN, GET YOUR SHIT INTO ONE SOCK AND RUN THE COUNTRY.
August 7th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
The cock-a-hoop, arrogant and obnxious behaviour of Peter’s and his lawyer mate (and his lawyer brother), towards the PC hearing, maybe the canaries sounding the announcement of a snap election? These lying pricks all know that they won’t have to present evidence upon such an announcement, and their behaviour is just giving the fingers to us all.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
polemic – “John Key either has say that Winston would no longer be fit to sit around a cabinet table or else Rodney hide can take a position that says I will not form or be part of any Government formed post election with the Winston First party.”
That would be a good move, but I can’t see Key saying anything of the kind, his strategy so far of hardly responding to any of the rubber bullets (secret taping) fired his way is also good for this. It’s not his fight, why poke his nose into it, let ‘em all hang themselves.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Just a few weeks ago, October was being touted as the probable date. A week must be a long time in politics if that is now early.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
If she is going to go early wait for the next round of targetted smears to hit the media, very soon, from the socialists propoganda machine.
They have had an initial range finding exercise with Key as target and will have built up a more focused campaign scope.
Liarbore really need to improve in the polls don’t they.
Awfully annoying that someone has outed winnie and owen – damn shame that little circle jerk ends back at the larbore party…
August 7th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
I agree pennie, it does sound a bit like wishful thinking on the nats part.
If Hulun and Mikhael were going to leave the bunker early it would have been announced by now – the hoped for poll bounce didnt happen.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
A snap election would be great, the sooner Labour is out of office the better.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Didn’t anyone think it was incredulous that Labour accused national of hidden agenda’s but had snapped the EFB and anti smacking on us.
they definitely weren’t election issues!!
August 8th, 2008 at 4:02 am
Tick tock goes the clock. Time is running out on this corrupt venal Labour government.
August 8th, 2008 at 4:25 am
It will be interesting to see what the actual tax policy of National will be once an election date is set. I’m guessing they aren’t even going to scrap the 39c rate. There must really be a lot of “Labour plus” voters out there. ACT is the only party offering sensible solutions these days. Best I apply my party vote to ACT.
August 8th, 2008 at 4:52 am
Labour can’t win this election even if they do go early because they are:
Completely without solutions to deal with the current recession.
Unable to realise why they are so unpopular.
Never accept responsibility for their own actions.
Try to blame National for their own failings.
Stopped caring about the wellbeing of everyday hard working New Zealander a long time ago.
August 8th, 2008 at 5:05 am
he he he.
That plummetting NZD will be raising gas and energy prices just in time for the election.
August 9th, 2008 at 5:29 am
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10526076
Hulun is fucked.
THey should have gone early and have now sown their seeds.
August 9th, 2008 at 5:48 am
What are the most important issues for the majority of the electorate, who care little about tapings, and other skulduggery?
1) Does my job/career feel secure?
2) How do I get more discretionary income for me and my family?
3) What taxes have affected have affected my earnings/lifestyle?
4) Does my family safe from crime day to day?
5) Do I agree with recent laws? Do they affect me and my family?
6) Have the current rulers had enough chance to make 1-5 acceptable to me?
7) Would a change be good for me, family, employer, country?
9) Do I feel negative, neutral, or positive about repeating my last voting intention/action?
10) Do I care enough to actually vote?
That’s all folks!
August 9th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Labour may call a snap election, but Ms Clark won’t go early!
Actually not until she really has to!!
At the moment desperate, and dateless.
August 9th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Friday at 4.52 a.m. OECD, I pray that you are right. Your comments are good; your acronym brilliant.