Armstrong on by-election
June 15th, 2009 at 7:50 am by David FarrarJohn Armstrong writes:
Saturday night’s massacre underlined one law of byelections but broke another. The first law is not to make mistakes. David Shearer may not have set the world on fire. But his campaign was solid.
One National wag labelled the cautious Mr Shearer as Labour’s answer to Clem Simich 
The Greens nearly doubled their share of the electorate vote they won in the seat at last year’s election to nearly 12 per cent. But they hit close to 20 per cent in the party vote in some metropolitan seats in 2008. They would have expected to do much better in a byelection which had no bearing on who governs the country.
And this was one of the seats where they had a higher party vote.
Labour comfortably won the byelection because it kept the focus squarely on local concerns – the Waterview extension being the prime one.
Labour understood that Mt Albert voters were looking for someone who would be a good local MP – not some carpetbagger striding the national stage or someone representing a particular ethnic minority.
Much to National’s frustration, nationwide issues seemed to get little currency. The party’s strong showing in national polls thus had no spinoff in Mt Albert.
It was unusual that national issues played almost no part.
Shearer’s post-victory remark that the political tide had turned is misplaced. What Labour has done is stop the National tide going further up the beach.
The dominance of local issues, the fact the result did not matter, the carpetbagger factor and the neverending debacle that was Lee’s candidacy make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about what the result says about the Government’s real popularity.
As a minimum, however, the byelection is another item on a lengthening list of recent events which include the Christine Rankin appointment, the Richard Worth scandal and the Auckland Super City proposal and which have been marked by sloppy political management.
It has been an untidy few weeks, and the challenge for National is to be seen to be working again on the issues that matter.
That was again apparent on Saturday night with the party leadership missing in action, leaving Lee struggling on her own until the bitter end.
With John Key unable to be there because of a long-booked private commitment in Taupo, deputy Bill English or another senior minister should have been in Mt Albert to face the music.
It is understandable no one wanted to front or were advised not to front – understandable but indefensible.
The absence of the leadership sent a dreadful message to the party about loyalty. The leadership has to be there for the bad times, not just the good.
Key did have a very long-standing commitment that weekend, but I think it was a poor look more MPs were not there on the night. Only three National MPs were there out of the 17 Auckland based MPs.
There was one unexpected person though. Not at the main party, but afterwards a few Nats went to tthe Kingslander for some drinks, and I thought they were kidding when they texted David Bain was there having a drink – but he was. If he lives in the electorate, I wonder who he voted for
June 15th, 2009 at 8:09 am
What… because Lee is Korean it is expected that she’d only be representing Koreans? Armstrong – what a weak racist jab!
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 8:11 am
I wonder if anyone of them shouted Bain a shot
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 8:14 am
I still see that the media were calling Lee “gaff prone” but made no mention of Shearer’s comments about immigrants being more likely to become crims. No bias here, move along.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 8:35 am
Armstrong does not acknowledge that the voter turnout was low; and no option for a party vote; so why would you bother to vote unless you wanted to show support for the Labour party or lodge a protest vote against the Motorway or the Super City (not much sign of that). If there had been a protest vote I would have expected a higher turnout. Nevertheles the Nats ran an abysmal campaign; unprepared candidate and minimal support.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 8:53 am
“It was unusual that national issues played almost no part.”
Can you say that with a straight face?
Marketing 101 – Find out what they want, then give it to them.
Not: Tell them what they need.
Winning or losing aside, this was a shocking failure by National to understand that the electorate was shopping for a new, hard working, local issues focussed MP, not electing anyone from a specific party. Of course, now they have someone that can’t get rid of and who can phone it in until he’s clocked up his maximum entitlements before retiring from politics.
It may also be a good warning that National governs because the incumbents were not deemed suitable. Which is not the same as National being as wanted as national polls may appear to suggest.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 8:59 am
Personally I felt that Ravi Musuku would have brought a great deal to the table for national. He’d worked the electorate for 2 elections and he had a network in the asian community.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 9:07 am
The media were obviously looking for a contest between National and Labour. A pack of nonsense in a seat where National hasn’t got within a bull’s roar of winning the seat. In a Labour wipeout they got within 1200 votes in 1990. A bit like Labour getting within 500 votes of National in Remuera in 1987.
Vote:National started to believe they could walk on water at the beginning of the by-election but with the high media spotlight Melissa just didn’t have the political experience to withstand it. National needs to have an unwritten policy of how to conduct elections in unwinnable seats where they should have damage control measures in place – not wild spending, low profile of MP’s,picking safe low profile candidates and not letting it become a national referendum on the government.Surely pollsters and political punters warned them of this. Political animals saw these Mt Albert results as inevitable.
The one saving grace is that the election was fought mainly on local issues.
The worrying thing to the incumbent government if a seat like Otaki,West Coast-Tasman,New Plymouth,Mangaukiekie or Invercargill had to be fought. That seat would really be a strong barometer of the government which would be difficult to defend. A defeat there really would damage the government.
What National needs is a strong political professional working in the Key office, a gatekeeper like Karl Rove or H2, dealing with “problem solving”.
Like Clark and Labour, John Key is National’s great strength. He needs to stand aside from the mud and general grime of politics. His “minder” can address these matters while liaising with caucus and the party. The president should be more involved from the party side.
A timely warning to the government and the National party organization.
June 15th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Good point petal, and one which Labour exploited to the max. They could scratch Mt Albert’s itch over Waterview, promising the earth (as they did, without funding the promise), but knowing that from opposition, their pledges were meaningless. Likewise the Super City – Labour seems to have forgotten that it was them who established the Royal Commission which made the Super City recommendation.
With two significant local issues, this was a by-election that was markedly different to most. I suggest that the result has to be seen in that context.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Both Armstrong and Rudman are great examples of New Zealand commentators and journalists. And people wonder why blogs are getting more and more the place to get the latest news and opinion from?
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 10:47 am
“…the electorate was shopping for a new, hard working, local issues focussed MP, not electing anyone from a specific party.”
No, sorry that’s wrong. This was a safe Labour seat. 63 years with Labour. Held by the former Labour PM. It is deep red down to its socks and undies. In no one way whatsoever was the electorate shopping for a new MP. They were looking for a new LABOUR MP. Lee was never , ever going to win. What did surprise me is that Norman didn’t make second place. Lee made stuff up after stuff up in a Left wing electorate that hates National and STILL Norman got beaten by Lee in the vote count and the Greens didn’t do as well in the party vote as they’ve done elsewhere in 2008.
The funny thing is Norman was going on about how this was a great victory for the Greens establishing them as the ‘third party’ in NZ!
Vote:Bahahahahaha! Norman must have found some of Nandor’s old joints!
June 15th, 2009 at 10:52 am
I agree wuth alex Masterley. it was a dumb move shafting the previous candidiate. Fact was the Nats were never going to win.
Their strategy should have been to severly dent Clarks majority In the event it only dropped 1400. If they had thrown some weight behind the previous candidate I reckon they could have halved Clarks margin and used that to clobber Goff and the Socilalists.
Putting up Lee was a bad error Good grief she has no political judgement at all.
Shes typical of the young wimmin who are legends in their own lunchtime and lack the finesse judgement and experience and carry themselves with any dignity and gravitas.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Shgoulnt have read lack the finesse judgement and experience and dont carry them selves with any dignity and gravitas
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Labour candidates David Shearers 9,187 majority over second placed National, shows that the Mt Albert voters have decided clearly, they want Labours full tunnel option of the Waterview Motorway under the electorate, not Nationals mix of both tunnel and above ground cheaper version. Making it the electorates majority choice, and the closest that one can get to a citizens initiated referendum without having a citizens initiated referendum. The problem for Mt Albert now is because it is not a true referendum and not binding on the government, they will not get their full tunnel option. Instead they will get what ever the National government decides they will get, with very little regard for the views of the strongly Labour held Mt Albert electorate. Its fair to say National now will steam roll their way through the Mt Albert electorate with a cheaper motorway version sighting it in New Zealand’s best interests and in the best interests of the new Auckland Super City Council.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Mt Albert has proved a new vote winning strategy for parties without any sense of shame. Promise something so expensive and improbable that it sounds like the plot of a science fiction film. Such as free robots for every household, a cure for cancer, or a $3billion underground road. Don’t fund it. Then when someone grounded in reality comes along and actually looks at implementing something affordable, sit back and watch moaners complain that they were promised something else and vote for the people that had sold them the science fiction plot in the first place.
Labour basically lied to the people of Mt Albert. The lie was that they were going to have a phenomenally expensive road built under their houses. Instead of punishing Labour for manipulating them shamelessly, they signed up for more of the same. You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those people voted for Helen Clark and David Shearer.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Promise something so expensive and improbable …….like tax cuts?
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Or a cycleway?
Or a multi million dollar piss up for their rich mates at the RWC?
Or throwing money at “tourism” when other businesses are struggling and funding their own advertising?
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
We can now see why there won’t be a referendum on Local Govt Reform
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
One other little point, ACT remains about as popular as swine flu, Boscowan’s high point was getting a Lamington on his head, after that all downhill.
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I do wonder though, if the ‘Lee failure had a lot to do with her not actually being Kiwi-born?
Like it or not there are somethings which ‘born-here’ Kiwi’s understand intuitively and simply either do not say. or word in such a way as to be known as true but not likely to cause problems – especially political ones!
Being a relative ‘new chum’ Miss Lee didn’t know these things and it showed – comments about ‘Gangs’ and ‘only getting second’ are really the sort of things that ‘born’ Kiwi’s would say – we have our own linguistic codes – and understand tehm perfectly.
The MSM, with its own ‘left-leaning’-agenda, on being presented with a juicy ‘sitting duck’ as she was, enjoyed the opportunity – as they would (of course).
I also wonder if this whole gaffe highlights the fact that, at least at the moment (relatively) FOTB Asian females (especially of Korean or Chinese ethnicity) are more of a liability than an asset to whatever political party they belong to. Pansi Wong has been known to speak in a similar manner to Miss Lee and has had similar results – and yes, if we are really being honest we all cringe when SHE speaks as well.
Could be a question for both John and Phil to consider: Do Asian female political aspirants = more trouble than they are worth?.
Watch this space – ‘Chinglish’ anyone?
Vote:June 15th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
NEIL is right KEY does need a formidable electoral savvy private secretary or adviser that nobody especially GOFF and Co gets past, none of the side issues warranted his personal attention. Maybe D.P.F. or Whale Oil could apply for the job. He could do worse.
Vote: