Labour drops to mid 20s
August 31st, 2011 at 8:40 am by David FarrarStuff reports:
Voters appear to be deserting the Labour Party for the Greens as Phil Goff’s election chances look increasingly hopeless.
The Greens have leapt to 11 per cent in today’s Fairfax Media-Research International Poll – and their rise has come at the expense of Labour, which has slumped to 25.7 per cent.
On these results the MP allocation would be National 70 (+12), Labour 32 (-11), Greens 14 (+5), Maori 4 (nc), ACT 1 (-4), United 1 (nc), Mana 1 (nc).
With 86 days until the election, there are echoes of 2002 in the latest poll results.
That year National crashed to a disastrous 20.9 per cent vote on election night, with supporters panicked into voting strategically for the minor parties, particularly NZ First, after deciding Bill English had no hope of victory.
In one sense, Labour is beating National. They are well ahead of National in dropping into the 20s.
Three months before the 2002 election, National was averaging 31% in the polls. They didn’t drop to 25% until the final month.
The Green Party’s improved result in this poll shows the party may be benefiting from a shift in its position towards National. It had previously ruled out working with National in any sort of coalition deal.
The Greens now say that although a deal with National is “highly unlikely”, they will not shut the door completely.
The Greens will have some interesting thinking to do. If they got 14 MPs, they would be a much stronger party. MPs would be able to focus more on just one or two areas than have five portfolios each.
One path open to them would be to try and supplant Labour as the leading left-wing party. However that won’t get them into Government for a long time. It is hard to see how a loft-wing Government would be in contention for even 2014, if today’s poll becomes the 2011 result.
The other path open to the Greens is to use their numbers to get a more substantive deal from National. Now lets again be very very clear – the Greens would never prop up a National-led Government if a left wing Government could be formed as an alternative.
But if National is the only game in town, what do the Greens ask for? There are two broad alternatives.
The first is what they had in 2008 – 2011. A co-operation agreement where they work with Ministers in a few defined areas.
The second is actual taking of Ministerial portfolios, in exchange for an abstention on confidence and supply. Maybe one could even innovate, and only have the Green Ministers required to abstain on confidence and supply.
The scale of the challenge for Labour to win is best illustrated by iPredict. The market has the odds of Phil Goff becoming Prime Minister at 5.4%, while the chances of Labour winning Helensville is at 6.5%.
This means that people think it is more likely young Jeremy Greenbrook-Held will win Helensville off John Key, than Phil Goff will win the Prime Ministership off him. Perhaps Labour would be better if Mr Greenbrook-Held was made Leader!
Tags: Greens, Labour, Polls
August 31st, 2011 at 8:44 am
14 outright communists in parliament?
That’s scary!
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:46 am
the calibre of the Green MPs is not that flash now .. to have more MP’s like this is a scary thought. Imagine if Harawira gets in with 1-2 more (Minto/Sykes) and Winny.1st. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:52 am
LOL can you imagine the fruit loops you’d get. Probably not a bad idea as it would show the morons who voted Green what they were REALLY like.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:53 am
Persistant vegetative state, for the love of god someone pull the plug on Goff.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:56 am
It’s evolution working before our eyes. In the competition for votes there’s no room (and no need) for two Labour parties!
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:58 am
The left eats itself and proclaims victory tom. Its the way they’ve always been.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:03 am
I hate Labour, I hate them with a passion but even I am starting to get pissed off at the way they are rolling over and letting the scum low life Greens increase their popularity.
If you happen to know any left leaning morons make sure that you encourage them to vote for Labour rather than the Greens.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:03 am
Makes you wonder how the low paid workers will feel with the Unions pouring money down the drain supporting Labour?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:13 am
lol i like how we all think the same thing.
im too lazy to google – anyone know who comes in at 14 on the greens list? a terrifying thought no doubt
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:15 am
DPF,
In light of Labour’s plummet and the Green surge, one thing I was mulling over this morning was electorate races.
If this trend was to continue, and Labour drop to (for instance) 21% with the Greens rising to 14%, would it be viable for the Greens to target an electorate seat (or more)? And if so, which would be the best options?
Despite Labour’s poor polling, I can’t see Norman tipping Annette King out, and Metiria has jumped seats a few times so i’m not sure what she could be capable of.
Perhaps James Shaw in Wellington Central? There’s an awful lot of Nats out there he could appeal to (certainly more appealing than the National Party candidate).
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:16 am
Ha ha
(Simpsons voice)
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:17 am
Clayton Cosgrove can read the writing on the wall. That’s why over the last weekend he had lines of ‘Vote Cosgrove’ signs planted up and down the roadsides of Waimakariri by his union mates. He only won Waimakariri by about 700 votes last time, and the ACT candidate got about 1,400. This time there’s no ACT candidate, and Clayton seriously doesn’t want to head back to Wellington as a scum list MP. So it’s panic time. Three months out and it’s time to start spending the war chest. Those internal polls have got old plug head shitting himself!
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:18 am
Someone called Mojo…..
Call me presumptuous, but I’m betting she isn’t a free market exponent.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:22 am
It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people. Cue some angst and bloodletting on the left. Once again, my favorite German word comes to mind. Schadenfreude.
cheers
David Prosser
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:24 am
It is now some months since I floated the idea of the Greens becoming the formal Opposition in our Parliament. Does anyone know if it is constitutionally valid for us to have Co-Leaders of the Opposition and all that entails including legislated aspects?
Big Bruv – I thought you would see the Greens in a favourable light, they are of course strong on animal welfare and that Sue Kedgely is a bit of allright eh?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:24 am
For Labour to ever regain power they need to sweep out all the dead wood associated with the Clarke Governments and find themselves a charismatic new leader/orator like they did with David Lange.
They also need “attitude” transplants for some of the newer MP’s who have entered Parliament in the last three years. Amongst some of them there is a rather nasty chip on their shoulders that is not at all endearing. I’m thinking here of the likes of Clare Curran, Carmel Sepuloni, Louisa Wall and Carol Beaumont.
And even before entering Parliament, Andrew Little is “yesterdays” man.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:25 am
Cosgrove bitching and moaning to the media as much as he can recently about the earthquake recovery .. he REALLY knows that he needs some sort of self preservation work
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:26 am
Auberon, did you flick some photos through to Whaleoil’s tipline? He seems to be taking delight in pointing out breaches of the Electoral Act to the relevant authorities.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:26 am
Quite true Murray.
Perhaps in the future we’ll find a letter from Goff in Key’s papers: John, why do you need me to die?.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:27 am
@dime 9:13 am
Mojo Mathers. She would become NZ’s first deaf MP. She has an Honours degree in Mathematics and a Masters in Conservation Forestry. And before someone asks about her business experience, she for several years owned a business providing forestry management services.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:29 am
“Mojo Mathers. She would become NZ’s first deaf MP.”
What?…you mean she is not Maori or gay?
How the hell did she make the list Toad?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:29 am
Are we close to a tipping point at which another big chunk of Labour support will move to the Greens? Is there a bedrock number (20%?) of voters whose instinct to vote Labour is indelible?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:29 am
Look at all you righties getting yourself in a lather…
These are just some rougue polls…
Nothing to see here, move along…..
Always gonna be haters….
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:30 am
MT_Tinman said:
Well, you’ll be responsible for allowing that to happen. You refuse to vote ACT, because you’ve been sucked in my the media brainwashing….
What about all the commies in National?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:30 am
So if a tree fell in the woods I guess Mojo wouldn’t hear it. Great, we can start sustainable logging of native forests on the West Coast again.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:35 am
ACT at 1.1%!!! Banksie is going to be very lonely sitting by himself.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:35 am
Mojo Matheers? Her parents not like her or something?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:37 am
“Look at all you righties getting yourself in a lather…”
We’re laughing at you dickless.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:38 am
and Metiria has jumped seats a few times so i’m not sure what she could be capable of.
She’s already made it clear she is only interested in campaiging for the party vote (according to Bryce Edwards).
Still, I think “her” electorate is up for grabs despite a healthy margin for Hodgson last time. He’s retiring, a nice but uninspiring party faithful as his replacement might see a big shift against him and against Labour.
Expect much more interest in Dunedin North than there has been decades. But not from Turei.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:40 am
Auberon Cruel but very funny.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:41 am
That’s good. We have too many dumb and blind MPs…..
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:41 am
“she for several years owned a business providing forestry management services.”
How would she know when to jump out of the way when a lumberjack yelled “Timber”?
[DPF: Reminder that you are talking about a real person here. If she has been a successful business owner, in spite of having a disability, isn't that the sort of person we should applaud?]
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:41 am
Be interesting The Greens getting 14 MPs and all the media attention they would get, who knows the swing voters might have a moment of regret and they will go the way of NZfirst, The Alliance, United Future.
Vote:Russell is almost palatable at times but the rest of them are barking. Good point about all those union dues going to a totally lost cause.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:42 am
Epic fail @Toad – Labour were deaf for 9 years, and even now the message isnt getting through. Cue labour pointing at the electorate and saying its our fault. Who knew deaf and stupid huh?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:49 am
Pete George, just because you’re standing in Nth. D and want people to care suddenly about you and United Future doesn’t mean they will. “Expect more interest…” what the lol.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:50 am
“forestry management services” – anyone else get the feeling that this “business” was consulting with proper businesses on what they arent allowed to do
What will it cost having “new zealands first deaf MP”? 100k a year for people to stand in parliment signing whats going on? Will they need more than one? one to sign what the main person is saying and one to sign all the abuse thats happening at the same time? Maybe for the second one, they could just have a dude hanging the finger at whoevers speaking.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:54 am
dime
Vote:What doyou suggest? If people don’t like the idea of a deaf MP then they shouldn’t vote for the Greens. I shouldimagine that, like most deaf people, Ms Mathers is capable enough to contribute. As if MPs actually listen to anything said in Parliament anyway!
August 31st, 2011 at 9:55 am
The other interesting aspect of the poll is the increase in the number of undecideds.
Would be interesting to know if this was something affecting all parties evenly, or whether it was yet more former-Labour supporters pondering whether to switch votes to another party.
That said, to be on around 25% support this stage out of the election, where unemployment has risen and households are having to absorb a lot of the economic downturn, is really not a good endorsement of the opposition’s strategies.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 9:59 am
the calibre of the Green MPs is not that flash now .. to have more MP’s like this is a scary thought. Imagine if Harawira gets in with 1-2 more (Minto/Sykes) and Winny.1st. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Actually it would guarantee National a 3rd term I would think.
I think the reason Phil’s doing worse than Bill is simply because Bill was seen as too nice. He didn’t have that killer instinct. Labour are so focused on the kill that they seem without reason at times, and Phil doesn’t seem to be in control of them.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:10 am
somewhatthoughtful – there’s a lot happening locally and nationaly beneath the radar, it depends a lot on how much media and voter interest comes to the surface. That typically comes late in the campaign as people start to have a decent think about the options.
As Chthoniid says, many undecideds looking for somewhere to vote. A few % won’t rescue Labour but that is a major for a small party.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:10 am
How would she know when to jump out of the way when a lumberjack yelled “Timber”?
Perhaps the person cutting down the tree would be competent enough to check no one was in the way before he started?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:12 am
I must be thick or having a bad day.
Can someone explain to me why it is strategic to vote for a minor party if you believe your preferred party cannot win enough votes to govern. Is it to prevent your sworn enemy from governing alone?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:39 am
smttc – yes, that’s one reason. For example if UnitedFuture got enough votes to get several seats (they got 8 in 2002) that could prevent National from getting >50%, or ir could prevent Act from holding the balance of power. So a centre-left-ish voter might decide to vote there rather than for Labour for obvious reasons, and rather than for Greens as an “anyone but NAtional or Labour” vote.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:47 am
I think there is some difficulty seeing UF repeating its 2002 effort. UF is essentially a conservative party, so benefited from National’s disarray then. Voters deserting Labour now seem much more likely to go Green.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 11:02 am
mikenmild – i doubt you can be an effective MP if youre deaf. Its a pain in the ass for everyone involved. Just another problem with list MP’s.
oh but im discriminating. we boo freaking who. a deaf person probably cant be a record producer either. bad luck.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 11:04 am
dime
Vote:Maybe we’ll get to find out, on current poll trends.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:11 am
Labour (in it’s current form) is rooted.
And it will take more than a leadership change to halt this trend. Indeed, for Labour to win back some of their left wing constituency, they need to firstly rid themselves of a vast chunk of the tired old deadwood from within their ranks. Only then will they be able to sell policy – currently, decades of ‘win at all costs’ lies and deceit has caught up with Labour and their current line-up is no longer believed. In fact, currently Labour is an electoral toxin.
A real pity because NZ needs a credible opposition to keep the Government honest.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 11:47 am
We could be close to a tipping point. Either it’s down to the absolute core support of people who’d vote Labour even if they promised to outlaw motherhood, or we might see a genuine shift to the Greens as the main opposition. This might still be a bit unlikely, as it has not happened in NZ politics since the emergence of Labour in the 1920s and 1930s.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:04 pm
mikenmild, the Greens are batshit crazy fruit loops. They will never present a credible opposition. This is a temporary set back for Labour. I am however not prepared to speculate how temporary.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:21 pm
david “Sue Kedgely a bit of alright, eh”, OPSM needs you David.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:30 pm
This leftie likes this.
Bloodletting on this scale will hopefully kill off a critical mass of the has-beens who don’t seem to be able to get past “You can’t trust that John Key” and think a legion of loyal labour foot soldiers will rise up to deliver them no matter how flakey their policy positions and public statements are.
In between Mana and Greens, the only reason ideological leftie voters would vote Labour is if they looked like a sensible option, with practical real-world policies for running the country and a credible team that could do it… and they really aren’t doing that.
And yes Greens definitely need to focus on how they will implement as many of their policies as possible, and forget about notions of duty or responsibility to “the political left” whatever that may be.
Let the bro nationalists, the socialists and the random directionless angries go to Mana, Green Party will be the better without them.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:37 pm
But yeah, Vote Metiria Turei for leader of the opposition.
This leftie will be
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 2:28 pm
@ SSB 12 21, I must be a slower reader but Specsavers came to my mind.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Another reason to vote National – the type of ACT nutter who allowed Brash to take over and bugger ACT completely.
Those nutters remain, of course, committed to ACT.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 4:28 pm
It’s not fair. The Greens are red anting the Labour Vote. They are stealing all Labour’s policies.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 8:08 pm
“for the love of god someone pull the plug on Goff”
Try and keep up Murray. Someone already has.
RRM
“But yeah, Vote Metiria Turei for leader of the opposition.
This leftie will be”
Let’s just put this down to Goff Stress Syndrome. Take two aspirin, and then go to bed until February. I’m sure you can get through this and I wish you well.
Vote: