ACT Polling v Election results
September 5th, 2011 at 9:00 am by David FarrarA reader asked me to look up and compare ACT’s polling three months before an election with its actual results. I’ve done so with data from One News Colmar Brunton showing the election result, the poll results 90 days out and the difference
- 12 Oct 96 – 6.1% v 3.2% – 2.9% better
- 27 Nov 99 – 7.0% v 5.0% – 2.0% better
- 27 Jul 02 – 7.1% v 3.5% – 3.6% better
- 17 Sep 05 – 1.5% v 2.o% – 0.5% worse
- 8 Nov 08 – 3.7% v 0.6% – 3.1% better
So on average ACT has scored 2.2% better than the TVNZ poll had them three months before the election. In the last election they got 3.7% despite a poll result of 0.6% three months earlier.
In the August 2011 Colmar Brunton poll, ACT were at 1.7%. While this is well below what Don Brash would have wanted or expected, I think people should be very cautious with suggestions that ACT may only have one or two MPs. I believe it is quite possible they could get a result such as they did in 2008 with five MPs or so.
Related posts:
- Another poll has Labour dropping to the 20s
- Post election polls for new Governments
- US Election Polling
- Horizon Polls
September 5th, 2011 at 9:07 am
There’s a lot of vote still up for grabs, I think more than usual, so anything could happen. One difference this year is that Act are probably not as strong as past elections, with a lot more controversy about leadership and candidates even among Actish support. In 2008 they still had the Douglas link with the old Act, now they seem dominated by recycled Nats.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:07 am
They weren’t as plagued by infighting and scandal in the previous elections where they increased their vote from their polling numbers though.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:11 am
I can recall ACToids making the case that they were under-represented in opinion polls because ‘ACT people are too busy doing things to be at home answering the phone for pollsters’.
That said, somewhere between 2% and 4% seems to be their natural constituency.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:17 am
I’ll call it the “media effect”.
There is a big movement out there in the political commentariat that portrays Act as extremist.They seek to make Act unacceptable to the electorate. Note the hatchet job on Brash before the last election.Same thing going on here.
As Act is therefor extremist(according to the media),people don’t like admitting to voting for extremists. Till they get to the privacy of the polling booth.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Brash has to get this campaign firmly focussed on the country’s economic performance and future where he has some credibility and perceived strength. His ranting about Maori seats, welfare and Hone Harawera have been a tactical side show and while he may be right in some areas it is just dumb politics. I would like to see him drop the campaigning of race and Maori seats etc and focus firmly on what the country needs to do to get the economic performance back on track.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:21 am
This is a very weak analysis. Simply relying on past behavior without analyzing why, does not really give much of a predictor of what will happen on the night. Dr Brash is a poor campaigner, based on past performance, and it may be that Act will not improve at all at the election.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:25 am
now do one for the greens – might take the tint off the smug bunch.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:26 am
DPF by the way I am not sure that ACT will be able to count on a surge this time. Act’s only fertile area for votes is to nick them from National. With National seemingly killing ACT tactically at present it is hard to see the jump you predict without a cockup by National prior to the election.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:29 am
The comparison doesn’t say much, as the margin of error renders minor party shares meaningless.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:29 am
Grendel (353) Says:
September 5th, 2011 at 9:25 am
now do one for the greens – might take the tint off the smug bunch.
Unlike the ACT/National position the greens have a weak labour party to take votes from and they are doing that easily at present.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:29 am
Mark – or a decision by the electorate to limit Natiobnal below 50%, I think there’s a real possibility of that but not sure that Act will be the recipient of that balancing of power.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:38 am
Will we get past the RWC without a Maori protest ?
Vote:If we don’t there could be interesting effects for political parties
September 5th, 2011 at 9:42 am
Why would Maori protest at the RWC?
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:46 am
@mikenmild:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby-world-cup-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=522&objectid=10707534
They won’t be protesting “at” (as in “against”) the RWC, but as the article says:
Vote:Some prominent Maori are calling the Rugby World Cup a “grand opportunity” to air their grievances and make a political statement.
September 5th, 2011 at 9:47 am
“or a decision by the electorate to limit National below 50%” – does that phenomenon actually exist?
Do people sit there and say “shit, we dont want one party getting over 50%, ill switch”.
Or is it more “looks like national will get back in, no threat from the dopey left, i can safely vote ACT” or whoever..
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:50 am
queenstfarmer
Vote:Thanks for that. I note that it was only Titewhai Harawire and the report was quite a while ago, so hopefully we won’t see anything significant.
September 5th, 2011 at 9:51 am
I (and my husband) have given ACT a tick in the past but not this time. Two ticks from each of us for National and, frankly, anyone in the centre who does anything different needs an IQ test.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:51 am
Have you read “Rules for Radicals”? The most impact they can make on the world stage is when the world is looking at us.
Vote:A protest outside of one game will have world wide impact if done with a small amount of thought.
September 5th, 2011 at 9:52 am
What Scott Chris said; the 5% threshold makes it a total lottery on the night for margin-of-error sized parties like NZ First and Act.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Her Highness BeaB hath spoken!
(Seriously, who do you think you are?)
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:55 am
Act have never succeeded in growing the centre-right vote. They exist to poach votes from the National Party when it is weak like it was in 2002. And even then a big chunk went to NZF and Peter Dunne. Brash trawls around looking for populist votes such as the law and order crowd and the Maori bashers but he has not succeeded much. He is at his best when he proposes bold innovative policies that are well thought out. So far that has not happened much. I still see the cranky old maori basher, that harks back to easier times when Maori were “compliant”.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:57 am
Do people sit there and say “shit, we dont want one party getting over 50%, ill switch”.
I would. I’m sure some others would, but I don’t know how many would act on it.
There are many varied reasons behind decisions to vote.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:58 am
LOL at a two-tick monkey trying to claim an air of superiority about voting decisions.
Comparisons for the Greens and New Zealand First would be interesting too.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 10:22 am
ACT voters tend to wait for the Epsom polls. If it looks like ACT will take the electorate then they can be sure an ACT party vote isn’t wasted. Generally the Epsom polls don’t firm up until a week or two before the election.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 10:23 am
pete – why are you so worried about one party having a majority?
even if they do, they will bring minor parties on board.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 10:33 am
dime – with Key’s promises to continue including other parties in government I’m not worried, but I just prefer a spread of representation.
Would you have been happy to see a Clark government with 50%+?
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:10 am
tvb (1,963) Says:
September 5th, 2011 at 9:21 am
Dr Brash is a poor campaigner, based on past performance.
Yeah, bringing National up to 40% in 2005 from 20% in 2002 is pretty poor isn’t it.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:11 am
Why would any centre right party not give their electorate vote to a party with a low party vote to get an overhang. Anyone who doesn’t needs an IQ test (so far the Maori electorates are the only ones to have passed this test).
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:22 am
pete – im not sure it made much difference to labour. they paid off the right people (mp’s) and spread their evil anyway.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:32 am
Sonny’s right, Maori electorates (and Epsom and Ohariu) have been the smartest users of MMP.
Look at Dunedin North. Woodhouse is assured of a National list seat. Turei is assured of a Green list seat. Curran is assured of a Labour electorate seat in Dunedin South – the Star was trying to talk up a two way race but Hayes is ranked 64 on the National list, go figure.
Dunedin deserves better than two Labour party patsy MPs.
If Dunedin North wants to make the most of MMP (and real representation) UnitedFuture looks logical.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Yes Pete, I guess voting for yourself would be logical.
http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/pete-george-dunedin-north/
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:42 am
@ PG 10 33, Clark had 50% + it consisted of a totally cowed Labour clique, a castrated Green Party, A dont care where as long as I’m there Dunne and the very expensive pin striped dwarf. None of the Labour clueless and the other Rabble were any kind of threat to her power and current regard of the Electorate for them is clear evidence.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:45 am
Vinick – what isn’t logical about it?
Greens don’t lose any seats.
Vote:Labour don’t lose any seats.
National don’t lose any seats but gain more stability.
New Zealand gains government stability.
September 5th, 2011 at 11:48 am
The poll results are in my opinion an accurate reflection of where ACT will be on Nov 27, plus or minus 2%. Brash has not captured the hearts and minds of the electorate as he had expected, and without Epsom, they will be gone by lunchtime.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 11:59 am
PG
You haven’t got a shit shows chance in DN. Despite Woodhouses high list ranking it’ll be interesting to see if he can knock a few spots off the new Labour contender,whose profile is very low. Woody could even ride Key’s popularity into an electorate seat there.
Vote:Stranger things have happened.
September 5th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
@Courage Wolf 11:10 am
Nope, it was Steven Joyce who did that. Brash’s ineptitude (and being found out in bed with the Exclusive Brethren) lost the Nats a election they should otherwise have won.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
toad (2,994) Says:
September 5th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Nope, it was Steven Joyce who did that. Brash’s ineptitude (and being found out in bed with the Exclusive Brethren) lost the Nats a election they should otherwise have won.
The thing is though the 20 to 40 percent jump happened overnight ‘cos of the Orewa speech. If anything, all it shows is that the average mum and dad voter are just idiots who flip-flop between giving their votes to Labour and National.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Toad
Once again you are trying to rewrite history.
You have chosen to ‘overlook’ the fact that the Greens and their coalition partner Labour stole money from the tax payer by way of overspending at that election.
You also seem to be suggesting that persecuting the EB is perfectly acceptable.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
No Big Bruv, as we discussed at the time National’s handicap was Brash, the man who went on to lose the unloseable election.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
bruv – persecuting the EB is acceptable to the left.
they wont hear a bad word about islam though!
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Nope, it was Steven Joyce who did that. Brash’s ineptitude (and being found out in bed with the Exclusive Brethren) lost the Nats a election they should otherwise have won.
I get sick of this bollocks. The Left keep on saying Brash lost it in ’05 because of the EBs. It’s nonsense. One week out, all that stuff had been aired and blown over, and the Nats were still ahead in the polls. The EB “scandal” really did not have a huge effect on National’s vote – it simply firmed up most people’s positions.
What actually lost it for National was that they ran out of money one week out. That meant Labour (who had also reached the spending limit, but illegally decided to spend more anyway) had free potshots in the media and in advertising all that last week. That’s what turned the tide for them. Whose fault was that? Well Steven Joyce was running the campaign, so what does that tell you? He didn’t get his numbers right. Everyone, left and right, want to ascribe godlike genius to this man, but there’s no bigger mistake in a campaign than that. He fucked up, either by being stupid, or by deliberate sabotage.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 6:41 pm
PG
You’re assuming its logical for voters to want an overhang and more MPs. I suspect to the average voter they see absolutely no benefit to any local MP be they list or electorate and if they have the ability to reduce the total number of MPs by 1 (particularly knowing it will have no impact on who is the government) that would be their more logical choice.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 8:12 pm
Interesting post David but it maybe that projecting what happened in 2008 thru to 2011 is like comparing apples with oranges. The dynamic in ACT has changed with the Douglas (true believer) wing well and truly shafted in favour of a more pragmatic approach. Don’t get me wrong, National needs ACT as a strong support party but with the formation of the Conservative Party those true believers in ACT have another option.
The outcome might be that the Conservatives do to ACT what Mana is doing to the Maori Party and that is a defeat for the Centre/Right and a win win for the political Left.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
Don’t get me wrong, National needs ACT as a strong support party but with the formation of the Conservative Party those true believers in ACT have another option.
The outcome might be that the Conservatives do to ACT what Mana is doing to the Maori Party and that is a defeat for the Centre/Right and a win win for the political Left.
What a retarded post. That’s like saying the Destiny Party or Larry Baldock’s party had a chance at replacing post-02′s United Future. Most ACT voters aren’t dumb enough to believe in GOD and homophobic Colin Craig’s attempt at re-establishing Christian Heritage.
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 10:21 pm
David, I already told you why, and you refused to listen…
Vote:September 5th, 2011 at 10:27 pm
PG
You haven’t got a shit shows chance in DN. Despite Woodhouses high list ranking it’ll be interesting to see if he can knock a few spots off the new Labour contender,whose profile is very low. Woody could even ride Key’s popularity into an electorate seat there.
Stranger things have happened.
No chance of that. Woodhouse ignored the electorate on VSM and Hillside.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 3:59 am
I guess Colin Craig has told all his disciples to spread the word that the Conservative Party is there to take on ACT head on. Problem is, they are fighting ACT using National Party policies with a hint of the old Graham Capill tinge to it as well.
I don’t see how ACTs support base will be harmed by a bigoted tryhard fundy who is only running in Epsom in order to get publicity for himself, rather than actually run in a seat he could have a change to win.
Ross – Woodhouse didn’t ignore the electorate on VSM.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 7:01 am
No chance of that. Woodhouse ignored the electorate on VSM and Hillside.
All the five existing Dunedin based MPs are very low key. That will change coming in to the election but that’s pursuing their own goals, not for the electorates.
The VSM and Hillside protests were attention seeking but far too late to make any difference to anything. If any serious campaign was going to change anything – especially for the Hillside workers – the hard work needed to be done years ago.
Dunedin voters can follow old habits and continue giving party politicians a free pass to go off an do what they like – or what their parties want them to do. Or they can think about what could make a real difference to the city.
Dunedin deserves better than two Labour electorate MPs.
Vote:September 6th, 2011 at 7:13 am
As far as I can see the only good that can come of the Conservative Party is if it diminishes the NZ First vote.
Vote: